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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-09, 07:38 AM (EST) "DWTS#8 Dial Idol Predictions" So being as I like numbers and data and all that I'm going to do some analysis of the dial idol stuff again this year.   Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Episode 1 Snidget 03-10-09 1  Episode 2 Snidget 03-17-09 2    RE: Episode 2 vince3 03-17-09 3        RE: Episode 2 Snidget 03-17-09 4  Episode 3 Snidget 03-24-09 5    RE: Episode 3 vince3 03-24-09 6    RE: Episode 3 Belle Book 03-24-09 7  Episode 4 Snidget 03-31-09 8  Episode 5 Snidget 04-07-09 9    RE: Episode 5 Belle Book 04-07-09 10  Week 6 (8 left) Snidget 04-14-09 11    RE: Week 6 (8 left) CTgirl 04-14-09 12        RE: Week 6 (8 left) ssinmd 04-14-09 14    RE: Week 6 (8 left) vince3 04-14-09 13  7 couples left Snidget 04-21-09 15    RE: 7 couples left vince3 04-21-09 16        RE: 7 couples left Belle Book 04-21-09 17  6 Couples Left Snidget 04-28-09 18    RE: 6 Couples Left vince3 04-28-09 19    RE: 6 Couples Left Belle Book 04-28-09 20        RE: 6 Couples Left Snidget 04-28-09 21            RE: 6 Couples Left Belle Book 04-28-09 22  Quarter-Finals/Top 5 Snidget 05-05-09 23    RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5 vince3 05-05-09 24        RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5 Snidget 05-05-09 25    RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5 Belle Book 05-05-09 26  Semi Finals/Top 4 Snidget 05-12-09 27    RE: Semi Finals/Top 4 vince3 05-12-09 28        RE: Semi Finals/Top 4 Belle Book 05-12-09 29            RE: Semi Finals/Top 4 Loree 05-12-09 30  Finale Snidget 05-19-09 31    RE: Finale vince3 05-19-09 32        RE: Finale Snidget 05-19-09 33

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-10-09, 07:49 AM (EST) 1. "Episode 1" I'll have to combine this with Episode 2 before we get a vote off, but I thought I'd see where we stand. DI Score (DWTS version) 29.97 Melissa & Tony 25.39 Lawrence & Edyta 20.89 Steve & Karina 19.49 Holly & Dmitry 15.60 Steve-O & Lacey 15.53 Lil' Kim & Derek 14.61 Giles & Cheryl 11.87 Ty & Chelsie 11.59 Shawn & Mark 11.54 Chuck & Julianne 8.73 Denise & Maksim 7.82 David Alan & Kym 7.00 Belinda & Jonathan 24 Giles & Cheryl 23 Melissa & Tony 23 Shawn & Mark 21 Lil' Kim & Derek 20 Chuck & Julianne 19 David Alan & Kym 18 Holly & Dmitry 18 Denise & Maksim 17 Steve-O & Lacey 17 Belinda & Jonathan 16 Lawrence & Edyta 14 Ty & Chelsie 13 Steve & Karina I then took the Dial Idol Scores and did a % of the total score as well as a % of the total Judges score and added them together. I took the average of that and the standard error to divide them into three groups. Safe (Lowest risk of going home) 24.4% Melissa & Tony 19.3% Lawrence & Edyta 17.2% Giles & Cheryl 17.2% Holly & Dmitry Probably Safe (Low risk of going home) 16.4% Lil' Kim & Derek 15.8% Steve & Karina 15.3% Shawn & Mark 14.8% Steve-O & Lacey Possible Dance Off Peeps. 14.0% Chuck & Julianne 11.8% Denise & Maksim 11.7% David Alan & Kym 11.7% Ty & Chelsie 10.5% Belinda & Jonathan Notes: Lawrence and Edyta had a pretty low judges score, but the voting seemed very strong. America likes it's dancing football stars. Steve and Karina also seem to have strong voting which may save them initially if this keeps up next week. While Chuck and Julianne were on the top half of the judges leaderboard, they didn't get that much in the voting so it pulled them down quite a bit, maybe America doesn't like this twist that much. The Judges scores will probably keep them around awhile if this trend continues.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-09, 07:17 AM (EST) 2. "Episode 2" Episode 2 only DI score (DWTS) 23.48 Giles & Cheryl 21.57 Melissa & Tony 18.85 Steve & Karina 18.80 Lawrence & Edyta 17.45 Holly & Dmitry 17.38 Lil' Kim & Derek 13.24 Chuck & Julianne 13.24 Belinda & Jonathan 13.05 Steve-O & Lacey 12.57 Shawn & Mark 11.19 David Alan & Kym 9.97 Ty & Chelsie 9.20 Denise & Maksim Added together both weeks DI and here is % of total DI score 12.9% Melissa & Tony 11.0% Lawrence & Edyta 9.9% Steve & Karina 9.5% Giles & Cheryl 9.2% Holly & Dmitry 8.2% Lil' Kim & Derek 7.2% Steve-O & Lacey 6.2% Chuck & Julianne 6.0% Shawn & Mark 5.5% Ty & Chelsie 5.1% Belinda & Jonathan 4.8% David Alan & Kym 4.5% Denise & Maksim Judges combined score 51 Giles & Cheryl 49 Melissa & Tony 47 Shawn & Mark 44 Lil' Kim & Derek 40 Chuck & Julianne 39 Denise & Maksim 36 Lawrence & Edyta 36 Holly & Dmitry 36 David Alan & Kym 35 Belinda & Jonathan 34 Ty & Chelsie 31 Steve-O & Lacey 30 Steve & Karina Risk with DI and Judges % combined Separated based on Average and Standard Error. Note the data was kind of skewed this week so that messes with how they separate out. Everyone is above the average-standard deviation number but two are quite a bit higher than the average+ the standard deviation. Next to No risk of going home 33.0% Melissa & Tony 30.5% Giles & Cheryl 26.3% Lil' Kim & Derek 25.9% Lawrence & Edyta 25.4% Shawn & Mark Low risk of going home 24.0% Holly & Dmitry 22.7% Chuck & Julianne At risk for going home/dance off for your life 22.3% Steve & Karina 20.5% Denise & Maksim 19.9% Steve-O & Lacey 19.6% David Alan & Kym 19.5% Belinda & Jonathan 19.5% Ty & Chelsie   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-09, 11:03 AM (EST) 3. "RE: Episode 2" I expand from last night: If Steve-O ends up in the Bottom 2, and isn't cleared to dance, then what happens? Auto-eliminate? Keeps his scores and hopes for the best? Even if he survives tonight, he's still in deep trouble, I think......   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-17-09, 11:14 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Episode 2" I'm also wondering how the bottom two thing is going to work if one of the two can't dance. I haven't seen any news today on what the diagnosis is for him, or reports he is out of the hospital. Now he may have enough votes to keep him out of the bottom two, and then they can see if he can dance next week and if he can't just do the whole thing but then not eject someone at the end. I wouldn't be surprised with the lack of news if that means he's going to be out and it doesn't matter.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-09, 07:22 AM (EST) 5. "Episode 3" Dial Idol DWTS Score 22.56 Giles & Cheryl 21.65 Lawrence & Edyta 21.49 Melissa & Tony 21.14 Ty & Chelsie 19.92 Holly & Dmitry 19.90 Shawn & Mark 17.32 David Alan & Kym 14.93 Chuck & Julianne 12.20 Lil' Kim & Derek 10.07 Steve-O & Lacey 10.03 Denise & Maksim 8.80 Steve & Karina Judges Score 27 Giles & Cheryl 27 Melissa & Tony 27 Shawn & Mark 25 Lil' Kim & Derek 24 David Alan & Kym 23 Chuck & Julianne 23 Ty & Chelsie 20 Lawrence & Edyta 17 Holly & Dmitry 16 Denise & Maksim 15 Steve-O & Lacey 10 Steve & Karina Will the votes save it from being a battle of the Steves? Probably not from the DI% added to the Judges% High probability of being safe 21.9% Giles & Cheryl 21.4% Melissa & Tony 20.6% Shawn & Mark 19.6% Ty & Chelsie 18.7% Lawrence & Edyta 18.1% David Alan & Kym Probably safe 16.7% Holly & Dmitry 16.5% Chuck & Julianne 15.9% Lil' Kim & Derek Likely to be in the Dance Off 11.3% Denise & Maksim 10.9% Steve-O & Lacey 8.3% Steve & Karina Steve-O and Denise are very close in the DI score so depending on how they fall in the margin of error will tell how that goes. Those three are far enough off the Probably safe pack that it seems unlikely that anyone else will be in the dance off than couples in the bottom three. Holly, Lawrence and Ty that were the next 3 lowest judges scores all seemed to do pretty well with the DI score and David, Chuck and Lil' Kim who didn't do as well in the voting all had pretty good judges scores.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-09, 08:20 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Episode 3" I agree that Woz was a definitive in the Dance-off, and either Steve-O and Denise were probably the best chances for the one that would join them...... Unless whoever ends up there gets a similar score to what Woz gets in the Dance-off, Woz probably will go home regardless......   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-24-09, 03:41 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Episode 3" Seems like Steve & Karina will definitely be in the Dance-Off, and either Steve-O & Lacey or Denise & Maksim will join them. But it probably won't matter who goes up against Steve & Karina -- that team will still be safe and we'll be saying good-bye to Steve & Karina. Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-31-09, 07:36 AM (EST) 8. "Episode 4" Dial Idol Rankings (DWTS version) 22.55 Lil' Kim & Derek 22.02 Melissa & Tony 19.96 Giles & Cheryl 18.60 David Alan & Kym 17.81 Chuck & Julianne 17.75 Shawn & Mark 17.14 Holly & Dmitry 17.03 Lawrence & Edyta 16.86 Ty & Chelsie 15.20 Steve-O & Lacey 15.08 Steve & Karina Judges Scores 30 Giles & Cheryl 29 Melissa & Tony 27 Lil' Kim & Derek 25 Shawn & Mark 25 Ty & Chelsie 22 Chuck & Julianne 22 David Alan & Kym 19 Lawrence & Edyta 16 Holly & Dmitry 15 Steve-O & Lacey 12 Steve & Karina Combined DI and Judges score Now both Steves were in this position last week, and they bothe were safe. I think they are both likely to be getting a lot of online voting which will not be counted by DI. Almost no risk of going home. 22.99% Melissa & Tony 22.43% Lil' Kim & Derek 22.38% Giles & Cheryl Low risk of going home. 19.21% Shawn & Mark 18.76% Ty & Chelsie 18.39% David Alan & Kym 18.00% Chuck & Julianne Likely at risk of going home. 16.37% Lawrence & Edyta 15.18% Holly & Dmitry 13.80% Steve-O & Lacey 12.50% Steve & Karina   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-07-09, 11:10 AM (EST) 9. "Episode 5" Dial Idol Score 28.87 Lil' Kim & Derek 26.75 Melissa & Tony 26.33 Shawn & Mark 25.53 Chuck & Julianne 23.93 Giles & Cheryl 21.08 Lawrence & Edyta 19.76 Ty & Chelsie 17.88 David Alan & Kym 9.87 Steve-O & Lacey Judges Score 29 Giles & Cheryl 26 Lil' Kim & Derek 26 Shawn & Mark 25 Melissa & Tony 23 Chuck & Julianne 22 David Alan & Kym 21 Ty & Chelsie 20 Lawrence & Edyta 18 Steve-O & Lacey Combined Hmm which statistics to use. It is an interesting distribution this week. If I use Standard Error (which is smaller) then only one team is in the middle group. Using Standard Deviation only the tippy top or the very bottom are not in the middle group. Just a weird set up, so I'm dividing by thirds. Top third (not going anywhere, or I'll eat one of edyta's costumes, not that it will be very filling) 26.82% Lil' Kim & Derek 25.77% Giles & Cheryl 25.55% Shawn & Mark Middle third (unlikely to be in danger) 25.28% Melissa & Tony 23.72% Chuck & Julianne 20.06% Lawrence & Edyta Bottom third (likely to be at risk) 19.88% Ty & Chelsie 19.42% David Alan & Kym 13.51% Steve-O & Lacey How much would Steve-0 and Lacey have to pull up their judges score assuming David or Ty stays the same, well assuming the DI score is pretty accurate it is going to take near perfection, and it depends on how they redo the calculation, if I readjust for the extra score they don't quite get up to the 19% level.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-07-09, 03:32 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Episode 5" I'm not sure who's going to be in the Bottom 2 along with Steve-O & Lacey, but I'm guessing David Alan & Kym. Even so, I think David Alan & Kym will survive another week while Steve-O & Lacey have to say good-bye. Of course, I don't mind -- Steve-O is the weakest one left. Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-14-09, 08:13 AM (EST) 11. "Week 6 (8 left)" Kind of interesting how it all fell out this week with the numbers we have. DI DWTS score 31.90 Melissa & Tony 28.86 Shawn & Mark 27.41 Giles & Cheryl 26.20 Lil' Kim & Derek 23.41 Steve-O & Lacey 22.82 Lawrence & Edyta 20.44 Ty & Chelsie 18.95 Chuck & Julianne Judges Score 28 Lil' Kim & Derek 27 Melissa & Tony 26 Shawn & Mark 26 Giles & Cheryl 23 Chuck & Julianne 22 Lawrence & Edyta 18 Ty & Chelsie 14 Steve-O & Lacey Combined percentages Probably Safe 30.6% Melissa & Tony 28.6% Shawn & Mark 28.3% Lil' Kim & Derek 27.8% Giles & Cheryl At Risk 23.4% Lawrence & Edyta 22.0% Chuck & Julianne 20.0% Ty & Chelsie 19.3% Steve-O & Lacey Looking at the stats they really seem bi-modal. No on is in the average +/- Standard Error range, additionally only the first and last person our outside the average +/- the Standard Deviation. I'm thinking we may see our final four and our doesn't really matter which order they go out four with this break down. Steve-O's fans may be able to keep him a week or two more, but as the field narrows I doubt they can get the numbers to get him into the top 4 couples. I'm not sure any of the other bottom group has either the fans or the skill to crack the top 4 couples from this analysis.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-14-09, 08:46 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Week 6 (8 left)" ITA that we have our top 4 and the bottom 4 can go in any order (Although Chuck and Julianne might be the last to go of this group because of Julianne's fan base and he's the best of the bottom.) Thanks for doing this every week Snidget.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

ssinmd 40 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 04-14-09, 11:18 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Week 6 (8 left)" Julianne has fans????   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-14-09, 09:22 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Week 6 (8 left)" I doubt that the scenario that I'm about to propose can happen, because between Steve-O's lack of expertise and various injuries so far this season make it extremely difficult, but hear me out....... What if, Steve-O has a "Breakthrough Performance" in the next week or two, provided that he survives this week? Think about it, Lance and Lacey were in a similar boat around this time last year, and they started going up the ladder after a few stints in the Bottom 2 mid-season........ and they finished in 3rd.....   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-09, 08:20 AM (EST) 15. "7 couples left" Not much difference between the judges and the votes, again. DWTS DI score 35.52 Shawn & Mark 34.88 Melissa & Tony 32.81 Giles & Cheryl 31.39 Chuck & Julianne 27.13 Lil' Kim & Derek 21.21 Ty & Chelsie 17.06 Lawrence & Edyta Judges Score 29 Melissa & Tony 28 Shawn & Mark 27 Giles & Cheryl 27 Chuck & Julianne 26 Lil' Kim & Derek 24 Ty & Chelsie 21 Lawrence & Edyta Looks like Chuck and Julianne took Lil' Kim's spot in the top four we will see if that holds up or is a one week thing. The combined data is really skewed again so using the average and standard error may be problematic (and standard deviation is worse since it is way too large) Likely top 4 for the night (above the mean + SE) 33.6% Melissa & Tony 33.3% Shawn & Mark 31.4% Giles & Cheryl 30.7% Chuck & Julianne May be on the bubble 28.0% Lil' Kim & Derek In danger (below the mean - SE) 23.9% Ty & Chelsie 20.2% Lawrence & Edyta   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-21-09, 09:00 AM (EST) 16. "RE: 7 couples left" Looks like Lawrence will need a ton of email/texts to save his butt this week.....   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-21-09, 06:45 PM (EST) 17. "RE: 7 couples left" I don't think he'll get them. Bye-bye, Lawrence. Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-28-09, 07:44 AM (EST) 18. "6 Couples Left" DWTS Dial Idol Score 41.51 Shawn & Mark 36.64 Giles & Cheryl 35.47 Melissa & Tony 34.42 Chuck & Julianne 28.91 Lil' Kim & Derek 23.05 Ty & Chelsie Judges Score 56 Lil' Kim & Derek 55 Giles & Cheryl 52 Shawn & Mark 52 Ty & Chelsie 51 Chuck & Julianne 46 Melissa & Tony Combined % Well at least this week was a bit more normal of a distribution, divided based on mean +/- Standard Error. If you do it with Standard Deviation only the top person and bottom person are in a different group. Probably Safe. 37.42% Shawn & Mark 35.95% Giles & Cheryl Small risk of going home 33.56% Chuck & Julianne Moderate to high risk of going home. 32.48% Melissa & Tony 32.40% Lil' Kim & Derek 28.19% Ty & Chelsie   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-28-09, 11:10 AM (EST) 19. "RE: 6 Couples Left" Yep, this is a big week for Melissa's fans. If they keep her away from the Red Light Special, let alone the Bottom 2, if she's healthy enough to continue, look out!   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-28-09, 03:36 PM (EST) 20. "RE: 6 Couples Left" If you do it with ordinals, there's a different ranking: First according to Dial Idol would be Shawn & Mark, second would be Gilles & Cheryl, third would be Melissa & Tony, fourth would be Chuck & Julianne, fifth would be Lil' Kim & Derek and last would be Ty & Chelsie. The judges put Lil' Kim & Derek in first, Gilles & Cheryl in second, Shawn & Mark in third, Ty & Chelsie fourth, Chuck & Julianne in fifth and Melissa & Tony in last (this combines their dance scores for their Latin dances with the ones from either Team Mambo or Team Tango). Shawn & Mark won the viewers' votes and came in third with the judges, so she got an overall score of 4. Gilles & Cheryl came in second both with the viewers and with the judges and also got a score of 4, but Shawn wins the tiebreaker because of viewer votes. Either way, they're both safe. Lil' Kim & Derek came in first with the judges but fifth with the viewers, and gets an overall score of 6. Still, they're safe because there are three others with a higher score than them. Melissa & Tony are in third with the viewers but last with the judges (though only because their rehearsal of the jive had to count), and got an overall score of 9. Chuck & Julianne were in fourth with the viewers and fifth with the judges, and they also get an overall score of 9. However, Melissa & Tony win the tiebreaker and Chuck & Julianne are in more danger than Lil' Kim & Derek or Melissa & Tony. Ty & Chelsie come in last with the viewers and fourth with the judges -- and get an overall score of 10. Ty & Chelsie are out as a result. Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-28-09, 03:53 PM (EST) 21. "RE: 6 Couples Left" LAST EDITED ON 04-28-09 AT 04:00 PM (EST) The show stopped doing it by ordinals several seasons back. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_with_the_stars_US#Scoring_and_voting_procedure They do percentages now so they can really whack someone with a very low judges score and have it actually be able to force someone out. I did it by percentages because that is how the show does it. If that is a bad idea, let me know why. The hard part is knowing how to convert dial idol numbers to percentages of the vote. They usually go by % busy so converting back to % of the total vote is where the error is going to be, IMO.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 04-28-09, 06:23 PM (EST) 22. "RE: 6 Couples Left" Hmm, I didn't know that. It's not a bad idea actually since as you pointed out, they can really whack someone with a very low judge's score and get the person out (like what should have happened to Master P), I just didn't know the show changed to a different format. Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-05-09, 07:44 AM (EST) 23. "Quarter-Finals/Top 5" DI DWTS Score 46.32 Melissa & Tony 43.89 Giles & Cheryl 38.45 Lil' Kim & Derek 37.54 Shawn & Mark 33.79 Ty & Chelsie Judges Score 57 Melissa & Tony 56 Giles & Cheryl 56 Shawn & Mark 52 Lil' Kim & Derek 46 Ty & Chelsie Combined percentages Separated by average +/- Standard Error Probably Safe 44.5% Melissa & Tony 42.9% Giles & Cheryl Lower risk of going home 39.7% Shawn & Mark 38.7% Lil' Kim & Derek High risk of going home 34.1% Ty & Chelsie If I do it with Standard Deviation (always bigger than Standard Error) then Giles/Cheryl go into the middle group   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-05-09, 08:06 AM (EST) 24. "RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5" Kinda figured as much. It would be surprising if any other couple than Ty/Chelsie goes home tonight...... shocking, even.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-05-09, 08:09 AM (EST) 25. "RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5" I probably could have guessed that before the performance show. I give him a lot of credit for being most improved and making it this far, but he really isn't at the same level as the rest of the pack. I'm not sure he's at the same level the rest of the pack was the first week, especially in Latin dances.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 05-05-09, 03:27 PM (EST) 26. "RE: Quarter-Finals/Top 5" Sounds like Ty & Chelsie are going home. I'm not surprised -- Ty's nice but he's just not as good as the others. Shawn & Mark might be the last ones told that they're safe if the producers want to get Shawn's fans voting like mad the next week. Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-12-09, 07:47 AM (EST) 27. "Semi Finals/Top 4" DI DWTS Score 58.35 Giles & Cheryl 52.84 Melissa & Tony 48.76 Ty & Chelsie 40.76 Shawn & Mark (only Giles and Cheryl is considered safe by them) Judges Leader Board 60 Giles & Cheryl 56 Shawn & Mark 55 Melissa & Tony 48 Ty & Chelsie Combined Percentages, separated by average +/- Standard Error. If I use Standard Deviation they bottom two are within the range around average. High Probability of Being Safe 56.6% Giles & Cheryl Probably Safe 51.5% Melissa & Tony At risk of going home 46.3% Ty & Chelsie 46.0% Shawn & Mark   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-12-09, 11:00 AM (EST) 28. "RE: Semi Finals/Top 4" Considering what happened last week, it wouldn't surprise me if Ty/Chelsie survive again.......... but he needs a miracle to actually win.......   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Belle Book 3556 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 05-12-09, 04:16 PM (EST) 29. "RE: Semi Finals/Top 4" I hope not, for two reasons! First, I think it's time for Ty & Chelsie to go home -- no offense to Ty, but he's the weakest one left. Second, I don't want Shawn & Mark to go home! Or even Melissa & Tony, but as I'm the one voting for Shawn & Mark, they're the ones I want to stick around the most! Belle Book   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-12-09, 06:29 PM (EST) 30. "RE: Semi Finals/Top 4" I thought they really overscored Shawn in her first dance when they gave her all 10s. It reminded me of how they often did that with Lil Kim. I wondered if they were worried she did not have enough fan support and they were trying to help her. I am surprised that she might need the help. I thought her fan support was stronger than this. But Ty has really been a fan fave lately.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-19-09, 07:56 AM (EST) 31. "Finale" DI (DWTS Score) 70.02 Giles & Cheryl 66.86 Melissa & Tony 63.13 Shawn & Mark Judges Leader Board 58 Giles & Cheryl 58 Shawn & Mark 56 Melissa & Tony Percentages added together. Above Average + Standard Error 68.7% Giles & Cheryl Within the Standard Error of the average 66.0% Melissa & Tony Below average - Standard Error 65.3% Shawn & Mark   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-19-09, 09:03 AM (EST) 32. "RE: Finale" This may come down to the texts, the non-DI phone votes, and the Encore for the judges that they dance tonight........ If Gilles/Cheryl get 30 tonight, then they probably will win, especially if Melissa/Tony don't duplicate the effort.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-19-09, 09:07 AM (EST) 33. "RE: Finale" I played with the numbers a bit. I think if Giles/Cheryl (assuming on-line votes mirror dial idol) get a 27 or higher on the judges score it will be really hard for any other team to beat them. If Giles/Cheryl get a 24 (unlikely) then either of the other teams has a shot, with Shawn/Mark needing either a 29 or 30 and Melissa/Tony needing 27 or better.   Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

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