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"The Hot Stove League turns on the burners."
Estee 55799 desperate attention whore postings
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11-05-13, 07:29 PM (EST)
 
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"The Hot Stove League turns on the burners." |
I'd like to start with Hall business, though: the 'Expansion Era Committee' announced their working ballot for the year (results on 12/9) and it reads as follows:New: Joe Torre
Tony LaRussa
Bobby Cox
Dave Parker
Dan Quisenberry Holdovers: George Steinbrenner
Marvin Miller
Dave Concepcion
Steve Garvey
Tommy John
Billy Martin
Ted Simmons With the new names... I think Torre gets in, but not necessarily on this ballot: there may be those who feel he didn't get enough done given the resources available. LaRussa's a lock. Bobby Cox is a poker player who gets dealt pocket aces on every hand and never figured out that a river card was coming: he'll get in eventually, but I want to see him miss this year just to hear the screams. There's an argument for Parker, but others will make it. The Quiz is the All-Quotation Hall on the first ballot. Holders... There's a thousand arguments to be made against Steinbrenner: the problem is that there's just as many for him. Miller will get in when the last of the old guard is no longer there to block it. Can't see Garvey going through, or Concepcion. Tommy John's ligament could be voted on separately. Simmons: no idea. And Billy Martin -- I think he's in the Miller category: too many with bad memories and his impact won't be recognized until the desire for belated revenge goes away. However, I do think we're getting at least one inductee. Unless, y'know, the voters decide the entire group used steroids. And while I'm at it, the voters: Former players & managers Rod Carew
Carlton Fisk
Whitey Herzog
Tom Lasorda
Paul Molitor
Joe Morgan
Phil Niekro
Frank Robinson Paul Beeston (Blue Jays exec)
Andy MacPhail (multiple clubs, retired)
Dave Montgomery (head of Phillies)
Jerry Reinsdorf (White Sox owner)
Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau)
Bruce Jenkins (San Francisco Chronicle)
Jack O'Connell (secretary-treasurer BWAA
Jim Reeves (Fort Worth Star-Telegram writer, retired)
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-13, 01:26 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Collusion." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-13 AT 01:27 PM (EST)Yet some of these monster contracts really are worth the money. Is there anyone that things Detroit made a mistake by signing Miguel Cabrera to a monster contract in 2008, when Cabrera was 24? On the other hand, is there anyone who thinks that the Angels didn't make a huge blunder in signing Albert Pujols to a monster contract at 31? Or the Red Sox, for signing the arguable WOAT, Carl Crawford, to a similar contract at 29? Fortunately for Scott Boras, Robinson Cano is no longer his client, so Cano's nonsense can play out without his involvement. Unfortunately for Boras, he's trying to get a similar big-money contract for 30-year-old Jacoby Ellsbury this winter. Had it been two years ago, when Ellsbury deserved the MVP award, he'd have gotten it. But Ellsbury missed half of 2012 with an injury, and came back this year still without any power. Ells hit 32 homers (and stole 39 bases) in 2011, but he only hit 13 homers combined in 208 games over the last two years (although he did steal 52 bases in 2013). At Carl Crawford prices, signing him is a blunder, even if he is a far better defensive player than Crawford.
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PepeLePew13 24909 desperate attention whore postings
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11-20-13, 10:54 PM (EST)
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3. "Hot Stove is in full blaze now..." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-20-13 AT 11:02 PM (EST)Prince Fielder for Ian Kinsler. Now there's a blockbuster. Trade makes a lot of sense for both teams - it clears up a logjam in the middle of the infield for Texas and they get a lefty masher to take advantage of that RF wall, and the Tigers can put Miggy back at 1B where he should have been all along (even if he did better than expected at 3B) and bring in a top prospect, Castellanos, to play 3B. Kinsler fills a hole at 2B for the Tigers and maybe he'll be rejuvenated to play in a different place for a change and take advantage of the generous OF which is perfect for all the extra bases he'll hit. Yeah, Fielder is probably still a better player overall and he'll have an impact in Texas, but Kinsler is better defensively and runs better; both are skills sorely needed by the Tigers. And the Tigers will now have a better chance at retaining Scherzer with Fielder's bloated contract off the books.
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-13, 09:21 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Hot Stove is in full blaze now..." |
In part, this is where it comes down to luck. I have no way of knowing how healthy Johnson is -- and I doubt the Jays do, either. I agree that it's better not to commit a huge qualifying offer for a one-year deal to someone with Johnson's injury and performance history. Yet the counter to that might be the Red Sox's deal with Mike Napoli last year. When Napoli earned all the incentives in his contract, Ben Cherington came out looking brilliant. But if Napoli had missed most of the season with his injuries, (a) the Red Sox wouldn't have won the World Series, and (b) people would be calling Cherington an idiot for paying Napoli the $8 million guaranteed salary.
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Molaholic 8659 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-13, 11:32 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: The Hot Stove League turns on the burners." |
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-13 AT 06:12 PM (EST)Response 1: HOF
I agree with your analysis with the exception of Cox who should be a first-ballot winner. I think Torre will have to wait until he's no longer an active member of the Commissioner's hit squad -- too many ticked-off front office folks putting pressure on the electorate. Response 2: Hot Stove
Seems pretty obvious to this particular fanatic that the Dodgers will be moving perhaps two of their one-time marquee outfielders. They've released the 2014 promotions schedule and both Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier are getting bupkis (although we do have a Babe Ruth bobblehead on the list). I just hope they're able to work some reasonable deal to cover the salaries (yea, right).  2013 National League West Champions
SharTribe’s Springtime SigShoppe © MMVIII Yes, Babe Ruth wore a Dodger uniform -- 1st base coach in 1938. Left in a snit shortly after being denied the manager's post.
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-13, 03:26 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: The Hot Stove League turns on the burners." |
The Dodgers' outfield situation is fascinating. They have Yasiel Puig, a major-league ready prospect in Joc Pederson, and then three overpaid, long-contract burdens in Matt Kemp (who might have real value except for his two recent surgeries and his 6-year, $128 million contract), Andre Ethier (who the Dodgers would particularly like to dump but for his 4-year, $69 million contract), and Carl Crawford (who still has some value, but not enough to justify his remaining 4 years at $82.5 million).Franly, I'd expect that the Dodgers would like to get rid of any two of the group of Kemp, Ethier and Crawford, so that Puig and Pederson could take over two of the three outfield positions. But who would take them at those salaries and number of years?
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PepeLePew13 24909 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-13, 11:13 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: HOF" |
That's interesting about the comparison with Gary Carter. I knew Simmons was a pretty good player but didn't realize that he outperformed Carter in every full season except one (which was a tie) in terms of ranking their seasons by OPS+. The only thing is that Carter was a superior defensive catcher while my recollection of Simmons was that he was average at best, which would tip the scales in favour of Carter as a HOFer and Simmons not being one.
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-13, 02:38 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: HOF" |
Simmons was an adequate defensive catcher with St. Louis, although nowhere near Carter's class, but good enough that no one was pining for the return of Joe Torre (his predecessor with the Cards). However, his defensive skills fell off (just like his hitting) after he was traded to Milwaukee -- and most AL voters among the baseball writers only remember him playing there. In 13 seasons with St. Louis, Simmons only had a negative dWAR once (in 1969, when he played just five games for the Cardinals). In 8 season with the Brewers and Braves, Simmons only had a positive dWAR once (in 1982, when he helped lead the Brewers to the World Series, which they lost 4-3 to the Cards). In '84, his worst season, he posted a -1.4 dWAR -- prior to that, his worst dWAR in any season was -0.1 -- and he never had a dWAR better than -0.4 in any season after that.
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-13, 04:43 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: *points and laughs at the Yankees*" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-05-13 AT 04:44 PM (EST)The only thing that could make me feel good about Scott Boras is his penchant for getting the Yankees to overpay for good but by no means great players. Ellsbury has had exactly one year, 2011, that would justify anything close to that salary. Somehow, Boras convinced the Yankees that he can be that player again -- although he didn't show any signs of it this year and, in fact, played hurt much of the year, as well as missing most of 2010 amd a good chunk of 2012 with injuries. Of course, Mark Teixeira has given the Yankees four full years after Boras took him to NY right under Boston's noses in 2009, as well as one breakdown year; Teixeira played a large part in the Yanks' WS win in 2009. The Yankees still have him for three more years at $22.5 million per year. On balance, that seems like a good deal right now, even with Teixeira's questionable health. I think the Yanks expect the Ellsbury deal to be similar. But -- If they get four full years out of Ellsbury over the entire 7-year length of the deal, I think it will be a miracle.
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Estee 55799 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-13, 11:19 AM (EST)
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17. "$255m? Not enough!" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-06-13 AT 12:20 PM (EST)According to reports, that's what the Mariners offered Cano, spread over nine years. And in response, the deal was very nearly formed -- until Jay-Z himself walked in to personally demand Year 10. Which, believe it or not, was where the Mariners drew their line in the sand: out. Local opinion is that this was a stupidity test: Cano doesn't want Seattle, but if that team was stupid enough to offer still more -- okay, he can live with it. If not, back to blackmailing the Yankees. Or perhaps client and agent were just being stupid. ETA: Just spotted the typo in the title: the offer was reported as $225m for nine years, which means the discount Seattle received below was getting $24m per-year average over a decade.
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Estee 55799 desperate attention whore postings
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12-06-13, 12:09 PM (EST)
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18. "Stupidity Test: Failed." |
I am the anti-jinx.Immediately after I finished writing the post above, news broke claiming the Mariners had gone back into negotiations with Jay-Zzzzzzz and Can-only-say-no. And as of this posting, multiple news agencies are reporting a Done Deal: ten years, $240,000,000. Hey, Seattle got a discount! It has been noted that this is basically a first-round A-Fraud deal, only going to the Mariners. There's probably some irony in that. Somewhere.
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-13, 03:41 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Yankees sign Carlos Beltran: 3y, 45m." |
The third year made the difference. During that year, Beltran will probably have to come on to the field with his walker.
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PepeLePew13 24909 desperate attention whore postings
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12-09-13, 05:16 PM (EST)
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26. "Thanks, Doc..." |
LAST EDITED ON 12-10-13 AT 12:49 PM (EST)Roy Halladay has announced his retirement after signing an 1-day contract with the Jays, ending what could be a Hall of Fame career. He'll be an interesting test case for the new sabermetrics of today's baseball as he doesn't have the high counting numbers of HOF pitchers of the past, but was unquestionably one of the two or three best pitchers over an extended period of time from 2002 to 2011, if not the best. The best comparison I've seen for Halladay out there is Sandy Koufax. Doc pitched in the tough AL East while Koufax pitched in an extreme pitcher-friendly era and ballpark, so their JAWS peak scores, ERA+, and level of domination for the era are quite similar. http://mlb.si.com/2013/12/09/roy-halladay-blue-jays-phillies-retire/?eref=sihp Comparing Halladay to Sandy Koufax may seem like a stretch to some, but within the context of their era and ballparks, their Hall of Fame cases are quite similar. Remember, Halladay spent most of his career in the powerful American League East where, thanks to the unbalanced schedule, he regularly faced Yankees and Red Sox teams that boasted some of the most powerful lineups in one of the game’s most offense-heavy eras. Koufax, meanwhile, pitched off a high mound and had the benefit of a larger strike zone and run-suppressing Dodger Stadium during the most pitching-friendly period of the live-ball era. As a result, Koufax’s park adjusted ERA+ (which is measured against league average) over his six All-Star seasons was 156. Halladay’s ERA+ over his six best seasons (2002-03 and 2008-11) was 157. Over their careers, both posted a 131 ERA+, Koufax doing so in 2,324 1/3 innings, Halladay in 2,749 1/3. Halladay also won 203 games to Koufax’s 165, doing so at a higher winning percentage (.659 vs. .655). Turning to Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, Halladay had a Hall of Fame seven-year peak, posting a combined 50.6 WAR in his seven best seasons against the average Hall of Fame pitcher’s 50.2 and Koufax’s 46.1 (Koufax didn’t have seven peak seasons; he only qualified for the ERA title seven times, doing so with a league-average mark in the first of those). Halladay falls short on the career measure, as would be expected, but not by a lot (57.6 WAR to the average Hall of Fame pitcher’s 61.4, Koufax is at 47.5). Still, Halladay certainly looks like a man with Hall of Fame credentials. Given how dominant he was, the amount of times he led his league and the majors in key categories, his eight All-Star appearances, his performance in the Cy Young voting, his historic no-hitters and the fact that he aces Bill James’ Keltner List, Halladay should one day have a bronze plaque in Cooperstown.
And my admiration for Doc goes beyond the diamond as he's legendary in Toronto for his off-field work (the hospitals and charity agencies were still mourning his departure, last I checked):
http://www.thestar.com/news/2008/06/14/halladays_step_up_to_the_plate_to_help_others.html
Finally, here's a nod to his exhausting workout routine and being well-known for being especially churlish on game days when he goes into lock-down mode:
http://www.ghostrunneronfirst.com/2008/11/day-in-life-existence-of-roy-halladay.html Here's one more about his legendary focus before games:
http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/12/10/roy_halladays_ability_to_focus_legendary.html
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Estee 55799 desperate attention whore postings
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12-10-13, 04:31 PM (EST)
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27. "It kind of pressed a button." |
I was briefly in my vehicle and had made the mistake of leaving the radio tuned to sports talk. The caller on the line when the power came up was talking about Steinbrenner not having been chosen for the Hall. He was incensed. And his argument for the exclusion being unfair? "Bill Veeck is in the Hall Of Fame and what did he ever do?!?"... ...and yes, for anyone in a ten-block radius, it was probably the loudest profanity they'd ever heard. To be fair, Francesa immediately rattled off a list of things done. Not that the caller cared.
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AyaK 10280 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-13, 04:55 PM (EST)
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29. "Owners in HOF" |
If the caller wanted to complain about a former White Sox owner being in the Hall of Fame, why Veeck? You could make a much stronger case against Charles "Commie" Comiskey, who was one of the original inductees in 1939.
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Estee 55799 desperate attention whore postings
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12-13-13, 08:43 AM (EST)
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28. "Commence booing." |
The Daily News broke a story today claiming Robinson Cano has a child out of wedlock, along with being out of the country. However, financial support is being provided to the mother.In the amount of six hundred dollars per month. Which is generally paid late. When it's paid at all. A judge in that nation decided it was insufficient and increased the required number. All the way to $1200 a month. Assuming that gets paid. So if all this is true, it provides a very good reason to hate Cano forever -- but it also begs a minor question: Why didn't this come out while he was still in pinstripes? It's a total mystery.
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