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"VFTWorst-case scenario."
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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-10, 09:46 AM (EST)
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"VFTWorst-case scenario."
http://content.usatoday.com/communities/idolchatter/post/2010/03/doomsday-scenario-how-tim-urban-could-win-american-idol/1

Beware!

It'll never happen. But you were worried for a second, weren't you?

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. zazzy 03-30-10 1
   RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. CTgirl 04-01-10 4
 One step closer... Estee 04-01-10 2
 RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. Tahj 04-01-10 3
 RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. zazzy 04-02-10 5
 RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. Estee 04-15-10 6
   RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. zazzy 04-15-10 7
       RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. Snidget 04-15-10 8
       RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. Estee 04-15-10 9
           RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. zazzy 04-16-10 11
       RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. CTgirl 04-16-10 10
           RE: VFTWorst-case scenario. zazzy 04-17-10 12

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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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03-30-10, 01:44 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
Nah, not worried. And I actually like Tim so far. He won't win, the same way Sanjaya with all his AI fan-the-flames-so-we-have-buzz-for-the-show didn't win (the way AI showed Sanjaya fans in the audience repeatedly and made a big deal of the crying girl). The same way John Stevens didn't win. Or David Archuletta didn't win. Because while the younguns might be a-votin' for the while, as the numbers dwindle-- more of the elder types will vote and vote a lot. (Elder = not teenagers)

And AI hasn't begun to really sabotage Tim yet--some cruel judges' comments? That's standard fare. Then there's the limited vocal coaching time, the reverb while singing, the song choice not clearing, the back up singer screeching or being off the ryhthm, or the off-hand confidence-busting comment made to him by one of the vocal coaches right before he takes the stage --the one about his pitch being really off on the song he's about to perform. There's trying repeatedly to bury him in the first half of the show so he's more forgettable (but that didn't work with Kris ;) ), or there's always bandzilla. And the mentor. There're potential mentor put downs ahead, too.

Sigh. So many tricks, so much manipulation. How much will he get?

Stylists pushing bad choices...weird hair styling...so many tricks, it's a matter of time, that's all.

Oh, and the USA Today article? Negative PR for the contestant...another one of the tricks. If they keep printing and saying Tim can't sing, then eventually people will believe it, right? It's only a TV show that's supposed *cough* to be about singing. *cough* *cough*

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CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-10, 02:18 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
My guess is that Simon knows how many votes Tim has been getting. He probably guessed that Tim would get enough to go through this week so Simon let Tim off the hook with a laugh. Now when the numbers start to consolidate, the judges and producers will unleash both barrels to push him over the edge and finish him off. Didn't they do the same thing with Sanjaya? They hated him, then laughed with him, then stuck the knife in him his last week.
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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-10, 09:07 AM (EST)
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2. "One step closer..."
I don't believe in The Saga Of Teflon Tim -- at least not in that we're going to reach full saga status, let alone reaching for an epic duration. But at this point, I do think we're in a situation where VFTW could potentially keep him going for a few more votes. If the poll numbers are right, we're still in their ideal situation: a few high-percentage pullers at the top of the charts and a cluster of near-equals in desperation at the bottom. As long as it only takes a few thousand voters to grind out that extra saving margin, they can have an effect -- and Fearville remains the most populated area.

Which doesn't change the fact that at this point, he feels cockroach-hard to kill. (We could try spraying him with soap. If nothing else, it might clean up his hair.) Yes, his performances have been sending me into giggle fits, and if this was last year, that would be fine. Because it would be Nick doing it, and giggle fits would have been the goal. With Tim -- he's supposed to be able to sing normally, or at least purposefully, for the value of 'purpose' that does not include 'svcking up to my main voting block.' He nearly made the show as a standard contestant: last male cut. So that means he has to have some ability. Somewhere. Deep down. Journey To The Center Of The Hair.

But tell him to try for it, and he just laughs it off...

I think he does know he's the VFTW pick. Does he really believe he can keep going on nothing but their votes? Is he holding onto any hope of a musical career, or just clutching at the delusion in his sleep? (Would a label buy a miracle turnaround? Would you?) He's playing the game without having read the instructions: the instant he rolls Go To Home, the odds are he's never coming back.

Treat things as a joke long enough, and you become the punchline.


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Tahj 4136 desperate attention whore postings
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04-01-10, 12:14 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
I hope it does happen. It would serve the judges right for including him at all. We all know it doesn't matter if you win. It doesn't guarantee success. It's pretty much a crap shoot when it comes to who makes it and who doesn't. I think Crystal is going to have a killer career whether she wins or loses. Maybe Lee, maybe Michael. That's it.


It's a Tribe!

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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-02-10, 10:22 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
We're following the Sanjaya model as far as judges go:

from Wikipedia:

"On September 19, 2006, Malakar, a shy teen,<8> entered the open audition for American Idol at the Seattle Center in Seattle, with his sister Shyamali. Simon Cowell commented that Sanjaya had a better voice than his sister. Both were advanced to the Hollywood round by the judges. Malakar cited Stevie Wonder as his idol, and sang one of Wonder's signature songs, "Signed, Sealed, Delivered I'm Yours" at his Seattle audition.<3>

For his next performance, in Hollywood, Malakar sang "Some Kind of Wonderful". He was shown tearfully embracing his sister when she was cut, though he progressed to the Top 40. Next, Malakar sang "Ain't No Mountain High Enough". The judges were largely critical of his performance, though Simon Cowell admitted that Malakar is popular with the voters while Randy Jackson and Paula Abdul gave a more positive appraisal of his "You Really Got Me" performance in the Top 11. A 13-year-old girl named Ashley Ferl was highlighted repeatedly during Malakar's performance in the Top 11 episode, crying tears of joy, although Ferl also cried for Melinda Doolittle, Jordin Sparks, and many other contestants.<9>

On March 27, 2007, Malakar sang No Doubt's "Bathwater" wearing a fauxhawk made from multiple ponytails. The style was called the "ponyhawk" by host Ryan Seacrest.<10> While singing, Malakar hesitated with some of the words to the song.<11> Simon Cowell remarked, "Sanjaya, I don't think it matters anymore what we say ... I think you are in your own universe and if people like you, good luck." The following night, host Seacrest walked out on stage wearing a wig with the same hairstyle, parodying Malakar.<10>

On April 3, Tony Bennett was the featured celebrity on the show, and he met with each performer. Malakar sang "Cheek to Cheek", wearing a white suit, donning a slick hairstyle (with a recent cut), and dancing with judge Paula Abdul. Abdul commented " I get it. I get why people love you. You are charming."<12> On the following April 4 results show, it was revealed that Malakar had finished in the "middle three," among nine contestants.<13>

Malakar's performance of "Bésame Mucho" in the Top 8 on April 10 was his first unanimously well-received performance by the judges in the finals of the competition. During rehearsals Jennifer Lopez remarked, "I like this kid. I love Sanjaya!" after hearing him sing in Spanish, the only one of the remaining eight contestants to do so on the Latin-theme night.<14> Randy Jackson commented, "You’re one of the smartest contestants I've ever met. That was actually really good. It was," while Simon Cowell offered the halting, "I'm going to hate myself for this. It wasn't horrible."<15> Malakar continued on, entering the Top 7, following that performance on the April 11 results show.

After performing "Something to Talk About" on the previous night, Malakar was placed in the bottom three and was subsequently eliminated in 7th place on April 18, 2007.<16><17> Singing his farewell performance, after the line "let's give them something to talk about", he ad libbed "other than hair" in place of "how about love".<18>"

Top ten for Sanjaya-- "I don't think it matters anymore what we say"

Top ten for Tim--something like--it doesn't matter what we say because you will still be here next week"

Sometimes praising the contestant after having bashed them for weeks can hasten the boot because the fans relax and don't think their contestant is at as much risk as when they are trashed.

So, I look for Tim to get a modicum of praise after performing a tender Beatles ballad complete with playing guitar, qualified with things like, "I can't believe I'm saying this...".

When is Idol Gives Back?


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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-10, 08:28 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
We are now approaching 'Bullets just bounce off! Throw the empty gun at him!' territory.

Not that he was the worst singer in the pack any more -- or at least, he wasn't through last night. That was Andrew, and if it had been a pick-your-own-eardrum-scars situation, I would have happily voted for Tim over The Hair (Singing Edition). But Andrew's gone (hooray!), and that leaves us with:

Crystal: Mega-pimped. Story of the season. Could not get the judges' lips off her rear with a crowbar.

Lee & Casey (effectively interchangeable): One of these two should stand against her at F2. I don't think the show particularly cares which one it is: they're leaning towards Lee a little, but he's the previous-experience ringer in this competition and wouldn't it be nice to push two releases immediately instead of waiting months for a new one? Remove the sales bump, though, and they're effectively one personality-free performer.

From everything we've been able to pin down, those three are the top vote-getters -- effectively indestructible until we hit the very end. After that, we're stuck looking at these four fighting over the scraps.

Aaron: Arguably fading and not helped by the judges giving him the Standard Issue Mixed Bag Of Youth Advice (sound mature! sound young! sound like Archie!). Has that classic Safe Boy look some parents love and which Nickelodeon programs tweens to gravitate towards -- but he's at the point where that pretty much can't be enough. I had him as a serious candidate to go out last night, and even after surviving, he's got a two-finger grip on the absolute end of the rope.

Siobhan: Also getting Contradictory Advice (r) (Simon holds the patent) and often seems to be singing in three directions at once, trying to keep everyone happy while having no idea what they actually want. Possibly the least likely person to be gathering votes from other people's fanbases as contestants vanish. Weaknesses being exposed, chief among them being people skills when away from the microphone. I fully expect her first B3 appearance to be next week.

Michael: His fanbase just survived the major scare. Rallying him past the double elimination was impressive, not even being B3 even more so -- and how sadistic was Ryan with that announcement? -- but the fact remains: he was out. He needs either fresh voters or for his rally to push him past Crystal's numbers -- which I don't think is possible. It wouldn't surprise me to see him plummet right back down again.

And Tim.

Who is in Tim's fanbase? VFTW has been trying to recruit from what they see as his corners: tweens, church groups, Family Values people with a little touch of gun rights thrown in. There also might be people out there who just feel he's the best singer, or ones that backlash against his shoddy treatment.

Does he pick up votes if other people leave ahead of him? I agree with VFTW that he's been sparing with Aaron all season for the tween group: one leaves and the other gains a few ballots. He doesn't have the range to get much from Michael's group, and Siobhan's people will probably either go to Crystal or just go home. But if he can beat Aaron out next week -- and, more to the point, knock him out of the competition -- then does he pull enough extra percentage points to crowd out the remaining low pulls?

Tim's road is not clear. But it's not as strewn with landmines as the show wants it to be, either. A little luck, a lot of voting, and he could wind up F4. I just can't construct a realistic scenario where he pushes beyond that. Crystal and the Goat Clones just have too much of the voting population to overcome --

-- as far as we know.

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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-10, 10:11 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
Did you write this or is this from someone at VFTW?

As you know, I was rooting for Tim before it was cool to root for Tim .

Tim's making F4...heck, he could Syesha himself into F3!

Syesha made routine b3 appearances, just like Tim. She hung on long after I thought she'd hang on.

I've got a feeling... (cue Black Eyed Peas) that Tim or Mike makes F4 (with some help from AI--placement, theme, pimpage, etc.). That means either Siobhan or Casey does not. Siobhan's the likely candidate to not make it but then we have a 3 guy 1 gal F4. Hmmmm.

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Snidget 43862 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-10, 10:20 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
I've always liked Tim, too.

First because you get the screwed over last minute replacement thing with the Simon wanting him out the first week. I also like the screw it I wasn't supposed to be here might as well enjoy the ride attitude.

As much as I like people to actually act like they want to compete and have some ability to do well, I also like when people have some sort of sense of humor about the process. The deadly serious thing can make even the most talented person annoying to watch.

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Estee 55195 desperate attention whore postings
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04-15-10, 11:06 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
Did you write this or is this from someone at VFTW?

You'll know it's from VFTW when it includes at least three @#$%s plus two optional uses of 'fantard'.

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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-10, 05:36 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
Then kudos to you! I enjoyed your recapping/ handicapping the season.
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CTgirl 7073 desperate attention whore postings
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04-16-10, 05:33 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
I decided this week that one of the reason for Tim's success, besides the fact that he has improved and has VFTW behind him, is that he has charisma. There is something special about him that makes up for his not-perfect voice, plus he is obviously enjoying himself and the experience (and people like to see that too).

If Tim can knock out Aaron, then he could very well Syesha himself into the F3. I haven't voted for anyone this year but if I do decide to vote, he'll get at least half of them, if not more. Lee is also growing on me kind of like David Cook did - and look where he ended up!

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zazzy 4390 desperate attention whore postings
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04-17-10, 10:51 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: VFTWorst-case scenario."
Tim--quiet confidence yet humble?
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