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"What would you do if you were John?"
Jims02 7328 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 02:33 AM (EST)
 
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"What would you do if you were John?" |
After watching this past episode, I wonder about whether John made the best decision for himself in the game. In fact, right after it aired, it became a topic of discussion between me and my family members who also watch the show. It seemed like there are two definite sides to it.1. Force the tie, hope one of the FoaFoa5 draws the bad rock, and then gain the numbers advantage. Or... 2. Vote off Laura and hope to become a swing vote at some point between the FoaFoas down the line. Obviously, for those who spoil the show, that knowledge may taint your opinion on whether John's decision was a good or bad move... But let's look at it purely from a strategic standpoint. Me? I'd probably draw rocks, but it's close. Assuming Russell didn't spontaneously choose to play his idol (which John doesn't know about), it looks like drawing rocks would be a 3/7 chance of winning the draw... I'd be banking on Russell, Shambo, or Jaison drawing the bad rock (instead of me, Brett, Monica, or Dave). The odds are stacked slightly against you, but the advantages of having the numbers now would be huge. It's really dependent on what John's situation is with the other Galus. If he's got his Final 2/3 deals locked up, getting down to the Final 5 Galus is great. Draw rocks every time. If he's at the bottom of the totem pole, then he's finishing 5th. But even then, you have a little flexibility with using some of the leftover Foa Foa votes. Who knows if a "Power Trio" alliance is exposed in Galu and you could swing a 4-3 vote later? It seems more natural for an alliance of 5 to split into a 3-2 than a 4-1. I see the argument for voting with the Foa Foas, but I have trouble with giving the other tribe the upper hand for free. It seems like when an underdog group (like JT & Stephen last season) fights for several weeks for the numbers... And then get the numbers... They generally don't let anyone wriggle back into the mix. And the fact that they already have a potential goat/swing-vote in Shambo would bother me too. If you were John, how would you have voted this week? 
A 2003 IceCat original
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 03:49 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-09 AT 03:53 AM (EST)Interesting premise, Jims. If I were John, I would NEVER had let myself get into that mess. Voting out a Foa Foa at the merge was the ONLY thing to do. Junior Varsity maybe but it's still better than Insane Asylum. That being said, once in the position John was in, I would have looked at things this way: - You NEVER draw rocks. Dave was incredibly stupid to bank on it. I don't consider it a tie-breaker but a tie-eliminator: Someone will always switch to avoid drawing a rock. It's putting your chance at the million in jeopardy to save someone else. If you can make the other side think you're ready to draw rocks, fine but if they're desperate as FF was, someone will flip. - Switching over to Foa Foa puts John in a no-win situation: Which player could John beat right now in front of a jury? Only Shambo and, with a jury starting at 12, he had to know it would be a Final 3. John cannot win anymore. So, John had to look for other options: I would have gone to Shambo and explained that 2 people flipping to a group of 4 FFs is dumb. Get rid of 2 Foa Foas, then grab another Galu, say Brett and THEN flip the game on Laura, Monica and Dave. Foa Foa would have been even more desperate 2 votes down the line. John would have had his choice of final 3. If Shambo doesn't budge, go to Natalie with Laura and offer her the sweetest deal imaginable. How did she feel being the pawn? If you get her then you're good. If Natalie doesn't budge, try with Jaison and Mick, telling them Russell wanted a deal with you. The last recourse was to get someone else to flip with you, say Dave, so that you could share the blame when facing the jury.
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Jims02 7328 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 10:46 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-09 AT 10:48 PM (EST)If I were John, I would NEVER had let myself get into that mess. Voting out a Foa Foa at the merge was the ONLY thing to do. Junior Varsity maybe but it's still better than Insane Asylum. You're definitely right on that point. If they can't turn it around, voting out Erik was the game-breaking move for the Galus. You NEVER draw rocks. This is where you and I will fundamentally disagree in game theory. There are a few situations where I would draw the rock every single time. If I were a "confident Galu", someone who has great connections within Galu and a pretty solid F3 agreement, the stakes are worth drawing rocks. If your side comes out on top, you might be able to ground the numbers all the way to the Final 3. It could literally be worth a million dollars. I don't read the spoilers, but I suspect this is the reason why someone like Brett or Dave were keen on drawing. They thought they'd practically be in the Final 3 if the gamble came off. I am completely fine finishing 9th by going for the big win. I would hate myself I jumped ship and become a lame duck that finishes 5th or 6th. There are opportunities to scramble if he votes Laura, but as you pointed out, the Galus would complete hate John for flipping on them. Even if he gets to the F2 or F3, they likely wouldn't vote for him to win. Shambo flipped too, but they expected it. It's the surprise betrayal that people can't get over. John's playing for 2nd place by voting Laura, which I just don't do. Screw $100,000. If I were John, my plan would be to draw rocks now and hopefully win the draw (Russell, Jaison, or Shambo goes). I'd have a couple choices after that. First, to either try going to the F5 and hope to become a swing vote between two pairs. Or second, try to swing a 4-3 vote by grabbing the remaining Foas and another Galu (like Dave or someone). It would depend on how I viewed the breakdown of the 5 Galus. If it kinda looks like a "Power 3" situation of a group like Laura/Brett/Monica, I'd work on Dave for a Final 7 swing. If it looks like two alliances of two, I'd consider trying to become a swing vote at the Final 5. It's difficult to give an exact scenario, because the person drawing the rock changes things a lot. Shambo drawing it wouldn't be that great for John, but he could still try using Russell later. All the scenarios I present are pretty risky, which shows what a crappy situation John is in anyway. I just wouldn't feel comfortable handing the keys to the underdog. Underdogs are harder to get them back from.
A 2003 IceCat original
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 11:52 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
We agree that doing what John chose to do was suicidal. He's playing for second place at best because of the F3.Look at the odds of drawing rocks: Before TC, John had a 1 in 10 chance of winning the million and no one was really targeting him. Suddenly, he'd be in a 1 in 7 chance of going home and a 4 in 7 chances of losing the numbers. There had to be a better option. Also, you are forgetting that Foa Foa was counting on John. If, at the last minute, he decided to stick with Galu, it would look like he betrayed the FF. In the long run, if he had survived the rock and a FF had gone, the FF would see him as a wuss. And they'd form 4/10 of the jury. Here's another suggestion for what John could have done: Go to Russell and say "You trust Shambo so you must know that she has an immunity idol."
(Remember, no one knows what happened to Erik's idol)
I wonder how Russell would have reacted. Voted out Shambo?
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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-09, 04:12 PM (EST)
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44. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
If I were a "confident Galu", someone who has great connections within Galu and a pretty solid F3 agreement, the stakes are worth drawing rocks.John (probably correctly) wasn't too confident about his place in Galu. He didn't like being floated as bait for the Foas, and I'm sure that factored into his decision. From his clip on the Insider: "Getting your name brought up is not a good thing out here. The longer you can have your name off the chopping block, the better. When it's 4 days down the road and people start thinking, 'Who can we get? Who can we get? Oh, there is no obvious choice? You know what, we've got 4 votes against John before. I bet we can get some votes for him again now.' If these people don't realize that they're stupid. It doesn't matter if they're stupid or not, it matters whether or not I go home tonight. The next thing is Laura and Dave look me in the eye and say I'm willing to go to rocks. Really? Really?" 
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 05:25 AM (EST)
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3. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-09 AT 05:26 AM (EST)"It seems like when an underdog group (like JT & Stephen last season) fights for several weeks for the numbers... And then get the numbers... They generally don't let anyone wriggle back into the mix." But they didn't technically have the numbers until after John flipped. That isn't to say they'll be forever grateful, but it does give him a chance. Too bad the other flipper was Shambo, who is infinitely more attractive to keep around than John, who has shown glimmers of intelligence. By the way, JT and Stephen did allow someone to wriggle into their mix, namely Erin, who ended up supplanting Taj. Ironically, she flipped at about the same time as John. Though in that case, the merge was at 10, not 12. And the Foa-Foa alliance has already managed to vote out two Galus without John's help, whereas Erin was JT/Stephen/Taj's first hope to break up Coach's merry band.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 02:14 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-09 AT 02:29 PM (EST)"You write that John has a chance. At advancing, yes, but he had that already. The question I have is this: Can you tell me how many votes would John collect?" That's hard to say. You have to ask: when does he move? Now, while he can still pull some Galu members together? Or does he wait until F6, when Foa-Foa in-fighting is more likely, assuming (though there's no guarantee) that he's still there. I say move soon, after Monica is booted--if that's the next pick (and I think it will be)--and try to take Brett and Dave along with you. Convince Jaison and Mick that Russell is the Big Threat, and in the very least they should test whether he has an idol, which could be dangerous down the road. Risky, since Mick and Jaison think they're solid for F4, but you never know. That's a 5-vote block. Foa-Foa will most likely stick together, for the time being. So perhaps John could work on Shambo, arguing that he's been a friend all along and the 90210 clique is gone. With Dave and Brett, that would give him a 4-vote tie with Foa-Foa, with possible flipping to ensue. But she's probably in too tight with Russell, so I doubt that'll work. His next best bet will be to wait until Foa-Foa is willing to turn on eachother (F5? F6?), and offer himself as a swing vote. Most likely candidates are Jaison and Mick, given Natalie and Shambo's closeness to Russell. Any way you cut it, it's tough. Especially since John will be seen as too shrewd (at least in comparison to Shambo/Dave/Brett/Monica) or too much of a immunity threat to keep around. I pick at best a 6th or 5th place finish. All in all, similar to what he worried might have happened with Galu dominance, given how they intended to use his name to protect Laura without his knowledge. Then again, you never know.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 03:51 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
Nice scenarios but my question was more to the point of Jury votes. The galus now hate john and the Foa Foas will vote for each other. John killed his chances at the million. No matter how much he wiggles to the end, he's a tied goat.
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anotherkim 14419 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 06:02 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
eric doesn't hate him, kelly doesn't have a reason to hate him. eric was happy to see laura get voted out. he has no reason to vote against john...yet.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 08:05 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
Erik is the only vote he could get. Kelly saw what he did to Laura and her other friends. She'll vote against him.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 10:44 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"my question was more to the point of Jury votes"Oh, right. That all depends on who he's up against and how he acts from here on out. If he's up against a Foa-Foa member, his Galu-mates might abide him. Helping Dave and Brett further themselves from this point would help. Monica already hates him, and will continue to do so no matter what. However, Laura will blame Shambo and Russell more than anyone, I think. Erik was John's closest ally, right? So long as John explains that he was going along to get along when he voted Erik out, he could nab Erik's vote. Aside from Erik, I think John was Shambo's closest friend on Galu. Unless he's up against Natalie or Russ, he's got a chance with her. As for the Foa-Foas, you're right, they'll stick together. But they'd be a 4 or 3 to 6 or 7 minority (it'll be a final two this season too, right?). "John killed his chances at the million. No matter how much he wiggles to the end, he's a tied goat." I never underestimate the importance of the short-game. If you pick a purple rock, you won't be around not to win a million later.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 02:26 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-21-09 AT 02:34 PM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 11-21-09 AT 02:31 PM (EST) "Erinn was more in Shambo's position than John's" In one sense, yes, in that she was the first (and only, really) to flip. Also, John's flip was more caused by outside forces (i.e. the purple rock) than Erinn's (purely pecking order, and perhaps a notion of just how dumb Coach was). But Shambo didn't give Foa-Foa a majority. John did, just like Erinn. It was Taj/Stephen/JT vs. Coach/Debbie/Tyson, with Sierra and Erinn as afterthoughts, right? It was 3-3 before Erinn, just like it was 5-5 before John. The big difference is Erinn definitely wasn't going back, whereas John has options. Plus, there's another Galu higher in the Foa-Foa pecking order standing in his way. Much worse situation, I agree. But very similar in terms of where the game was when the move was made. "Stephen is sure that Erinn would not have won a jury vote" That's another big difference. Stephen was right, and what's more, he knew JT would absolutely win a jury vote. So he needed her, long term. Nothing of the sort could be said by anyone about John. Russell already has his pick of anyone on his alliance but Natalie for the final. And everyone else would be stupid not to take Russell or Shambo.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 03:55 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
>But Shambo
>didn't give Foa-Foa a majority.
>John did, just like Erinn.
>It was Taj/Stephen/JT vs. Coach/Debbie/Tyson,
>with Sierra and Erinn as
>afterthoughts, right? It was 3-3
>before Erinn, just like it
>was 5-5 before John. Actually, Erinn jumped at the merge when it was 6 Timbira to 4 Paos. She made it 5-5 but Joe's evacuation prevented that situation. Anyway, Coach destroyed his pwn alliance by going after Brendan.
>The big difference is Erinn definitely
>wasn't going back, whereas John
>has options.
None lead to the million.
>Russell already has his pick
>of anyone on his alliance
>but Natalie for the final. Pardon me? Didn't Russell say he wanted Natalie to ride him to the end?
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 11:05 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"Actually, Erinn jumped at the merge when it was 6 Timbira to 4 Paos. She made it 5-5 but Joe's evacuation prevented that situation."I can't remember the Joe episode very well. My recollection is that JT/Stephen/Taj hitched themselves onto the Coach/Tyson/Debbie train for the Brendan vote, and were going to go along with the Sierra vote before Erinn popped up with the Tyson blindside. Only then did1 Pao+Erinn take over. Erinn was probably scheming with the Paos all along; could have been edited out to make yet more room for Coach's antics. But it didn't manifest itself at tribal, and therefore didn't count in my opinion, before Tyson's ouster. "None lead to the million." Good strategy doesn't always win. Not that John's strategy was good persay, but I don't think it was bad. I personally don't blame him for fearing the rock, and he still has options. The fat lady hasn't sung yet (though I think she will soon). As for Erinn, she put herself in the best position--given where she was at the merge--to get to the final two. 3rd was her best possible finish given JT's immunity streak and her poor social game early on. That's not a million dollars, but it's something to consider. "Didn't Russell say he wanted Natalie to ride him to the end?" He said that, but that was back when he thought she was dumb, right? Here's hoping he's wised up. The smart move is to dump Natalie, who's too well liked for Russell to beat, in my opinion.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-09, 04:05 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
Tublecane, it's fun debating with you."Good strategy doesn't always win" In my book, a strategy is only good if it gets you the win. Good tactics don't always win but a strategy, being an overall plan to reach the end, is only good if it brings the win. Here, I have a big problem seeing how John can win, how he can get the jury to vote for him. I never proposed he pick a rock. Neither of the two options he considered were the right ones. He had to find another way and Monica's plan was a better starting point. PS: Erinn in reality, flipped before the merge, when she went to Exile Sand Dune with Joe. The Jalapaos and Erinn had their choice of voting out Brendan or Tyson at F9 so her move counted before the actual TC that saw Tyson leave. Stephen said they went against Brendan first because he and Sierra acted like they were in charge of the Secret Exile Sand Dune Alliance.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 07:31 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"In my book, a strategy is only good if it gets you the win...strategy, being an overall plan to reach the end, is only good if it brings the win"That's one way of looking at it. They say strategy becomes tactics on the battlefield. If individual tribal councils are the battlefield, then I'd agree that tribal to tribal stragies are really tactics. But there's the fact that most people don't think of endgame all the time. Most think, "This will get me to F4, and I'll take it from there." There are also natural stages to the game. Obviously, this applies most to Pre vs. Post merge strategy. But it can also apply to smaller perameters. I'm just not sure only strategies to win can be called strategies. Erinn, for instance, had either bad or non-existant pre-merge strategy. But she had great strategy from the Tyson boot to F3. Her mindset was, if I flip now, I'll make it at least to F4. That required her to take into account 4 tribal councils all at once. I'd call that strategy. Because she was voted out at F3 one could say the entire strategy that led Erinn to F3 was flawed. One could also say that it was the only thing that could bring her to F3, given the layout of the game when Tyson went out. So even if it wasn't a winning endgame strategy, it was her best endgame strategy at the time. Which brings me to another way to look at Survivor strategy. If a player could start over 100 times, in the same condition (i.e. not having played before and not being known by the other players), with different personalities and different balances of power, how often would she be successful? This eliminates the unfortunate element of chance, such as being put on a tribe that irrationally hates you. Take Boston Rob, who most people originally dubbed a shrewd player even though he went out at, what?, F10? But he subsequently proved himself in All-Stars (not a perfect test case, since he learned by playing once already, and used previous associations outside the game to his benefit), where he altered his game to suit his tribes and came within one vote of winning. Erinn's nowhere near as good as Rob, but I figure she'd do well. There's a third way to judge. Put the same people in the same situation and see how a decision turns out. For instance, have John flip at F10 with the same opponents and the same mood 100 ties. How often would John win? I'd say not very, but perhaps more than he'd lose. "The Jalapaos and Erinn had their choice of voting out Brendan or Tyson at F9 so her move counted before the actual TC that saw Tyson leave." That may be true, and I guess the operational definition of flipping I use may not be everyone else's. I use the term for when people switch sides and alter the balance of power through a vote. The Brendan vote was an overwhelming majority, leaving out only Sierra and Brendand himself, right? Erinn was voting with JT/Taj/Stephen but also Coach/Debbie/Tyson at the same time. So even if she had betrayed Coach in her heart, she hadn't yet done it at tribal. It was just a matter of chance, of course, that Joe's exit and Coach's Warrior Alliance turning on Brendan prevented Erinn from proving her allegiance at tribal before the Tyson vote. But to me, she officially flipped at the Tyson vote. Feel free to disagree.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-23-09, 08:47 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
>They say strategy becomes
>tactics on the battlefield...
>I'm just not sure
>only strategies to win can
>be called strategiesIn war, all the tactics and stratagems have to work together in an overarching strategy. That strategy has to be focused on a clear goal or else, you bog down. Survivor has to be the same. >Most think, "This will
>get me to F4, and
>I'll take it from there." That sounds like Denise. Most of those players lose.
>Erinn, for instance, had either bad
>or non-existant pre-merge strategy. But
>she had great strategy from
>the Tyson boot to F3.
>Her mindset was, if I
>flip now, I'll make it
>at least to F4. That
>required her to take into
>account 4 tribal councils all
>at once. I'd call that
>strategy. I'd call that too little too late. After the merge, Erinn had to suddenly come up with something because she didn't have a proper strategy to begin with. It was flawed at the start when she stayed an outsider to Timbira. In a tribe that had two very definite opposing factions, it's hard to be hated by both sides. I agree her post-merge tactics were good and only JT's immunity run prevented her from making the F2. The problem is that she still couldn't have won because the jury didn't like her.
>If a player could start
>over 100 times...
>Take Boston Rob...
I'd rather not see the same players twice and you can keep Boston Rob! >How often would
>John win? I'd say not
>very, but perhaps more than
>he'd lose. I'm almost certain that, pulling the same exact move would cause him to lose EVERY time. Just like Jonathan in Cook Islands.
>But to me, she officially
>flipped at the Tyson vote.
That was also when Coach realized it. It was his mistake.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-09, 09:10 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"In war, all the tactics and stratagems have to work together in an overarching strategy."In a perfect world, yes, having a Grand Strategy that works perfectly and never has to be altered is optimum. But when has that ever happened in Survivor (or human) history? Richard Hatch, archetypal Survivor genius, had to switch up his game a few times. Most notably when he, Sue, and Rudy turned on Kelly. Which was a bad move, since Hatch only won (presumably) because Kelly lasted 'till the end. But let's say for a moment that turning on Kelly the turncoat was the right move. Did that make everything that came before it--trusting Kelly, etc.--bad strategy? No, it was good strategy for the time, since it brought him to where he was when he decided to switch things up. Point is, people have to have intermediate strategies. Grand Strategy is not the only strategy. I'd say each individual tribal requires its own strategy, but I guess I'm fine with calling individual votes tactical. But any time you look past a tribal, anytime you think two steps ahead, you're thinking strategically. The game of chess is usually divided into three stages: opening, middle, and endgame. This is so because even the greatest geniuses cannot foresee what pieces will be around when it's time to checkmate, unless he's playing with a goat. Survivor is the same, in that there are generally four stages, each foreseeable from the preceeding stage, but not before (with exceptions, to be noted): pre-merge, post-merge, a stage that's harder to define which emerges usually around F4 or F3 when one block is more or less sure that at least one of its members will go to the final, and finally the final itself. Now, I find it hard to say that someone who has a plan to get to the merge, or from the merge to the "final just over the horizon" stage, has bad strategy. If he or she gets voted out after they've made the merge or whatever, it doesn't mean every part of their game was poor, while it does mean they had bad Grand Strategy. I just have a hard time saying winning is the only proof, and that Grand Strategy is the only strategy. First of all because several people have won almost accidentally. Chance is a huge factor, which in and of itself shouldn't cause us to badmouth the plans of those unlucky enough not to be lucky. Secondly, how many people have we seen with grand schemes but no short-game vision and little intermediate planning? It's almost a Survivor truism that players with their eyes on the prize get blindsided. You can't plan for F2 if you're not around after F10. "That sounds like Denise. Most of those players lose." I didn't phrase that the best way. When I say, "This will
get me to F4, and I'll take it from there," I don't mean they don't make any plans at all. I mean they accept the best odds they can for F4, then play with what they have once they get there. As for whether it's worked, I can't quote statistics. As I've said above, I know that's how Hatch won. He wanted to vote off Kelly--his winning ticket--at F6. It might have been the way Pearl Island Sandra won, but I can't quite recall. You could say Vanuatu Chris lacked a definite plan, apart from realizing everyone irrationally hated Twila. He took it as it came from F7 on, aided by the fact that the women's alliance was too big for its own good. You may be right. It may be precarious. But here's the thing. If you don't get to F4, you can't win, while once you're there, you can win or lose. If you believe like me that the struggle for F2 is a different stage from the post-merge struggle, getting to F4 is a leap from one stage to another. "I'd call that too little too late. After the merge, Erinn had to suddenly come up with something because she didn't have a proper strategy to begin with. It was flawed at the start when she stayed an outsider to Timbira." I agree. But, again, we're pretending as if Grand Strategy is the only strategy there is. I agree winning is the point. But sticking around from tribal to tribal, and making the stage jumps I've talked about (from seperate tribes to merge, from merge to controlling block, and from controlling block to F2) are important as well, in a smaller sense. Erinn had a great strategy given her status at the merge. Granted, where she was was her fault. Nonetheless, I have to call it good gameplay. "I'd rather not see the same players twice and you can keep Boston Rob!" Whatever you think of his personality, the proof is in the pudding, right? He was on the cusp of winning, as close as you can get without taking home the money. If there had never been an All-Stars, he would forever have been some loudmouth who didn't even make the jury. It's important to bear in mind when we call people good or bad strategists based on whether or not they won. "I'm almost certain that, pulling the same exact move would cause him to lose EVERY time. Just like Jonathan in Cook Islands." Jonathan didn't think he possibly could win, much like Sugar. As for John, he has legitimate options. Do you really think he couldn't convince Shambo to flip back after 100 tries? Or couldn't convince everyone Russell was too dangerous 100 times? I doubt it. "That was also when Coach realized it. It was his mistake." His mistake was trusting JT more than Brendan and Sierra, and not being able to count and realize invisible Erinn really did matter. Should have voted JT out right away.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-09, 11:43 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-24-09 AT 11:49 PM (EST)
"In a perfect world, yes, having a Grand Strategy that works perfectly and never has to be altered is optimum."
That's certainly not what I've said. Surviving is about adapting so any strategy worth a dime needs flexibility. Survivor is a simple game: Be friendly, work hard, contribute in camp and in challenges, make an alliance with people that will be helpful and that you can beat in the end and keep the others happy AND in the dark. That's the overarching survivor strategy. Who fits in and where, those are the first things you have to figure out. You do that by listening and getting to know everyone. That's like the Opening in Chess. Hatch did that and his alliance was with players he could beat in the end. His ticket was more Sue than Kelly. He had to adapt because of her IC run and he did. John's mistakes: 1- Going against the tribe's leader by keeping someone, namely Monica, that wasn't even in his alliance. 2- Not leaving the women in the dark by electing Shambo as leader. 3- Not voting a FF at the merge. He's the one that opened the door. Those were all errors against basic strategy. Without those errors, John would still be following the same plan and would be able to adapt it to increase his chances. In his alliance with the other Galu guys, it would be easy to see right now that the likable Brett would be a person to eliminate. Erik's arrogance could make him a good person to keep so John could have become Erik's "bestest" friend. Sure, luck is a huge factor but there are ways to minimize it. For example: Eliminating Fairplay, an obvious troublemaker, before the merge in PI would have been a good way to simplify the game for Sandra. BTW, chess is a game I know something about and you definitely need an overall strategy to beat a strong opponent. When two masters confront each other, the opening is more a psychological battle than a strategic one. They each know the 10, 12 sometimes first 15 moves of every opening. So, their goal is to bring the opponent in an opening he doesn't particularly care for. The Finale, when it is played at all, is often simply mopping up. Grand Masters never play to checkmate. The strategy is established at some point after those opening moves and, unless one makes a big mistake, it usually decides the outcome. Grand Masters make a hell of a lot less mistakes than Survivors.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-09, 02:31 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"That's certainly not what I've said." Didn't mean to imply you did. That was just my way of getting into talking about the difference between Grand Strategy and intermediate strategy. "Not leaving the women in the dark by electing Shambo as leader." I'm not sure what you mean here. Are you saying electing Shambo exposed the fact that there was a male alliance, or that electing her was too obvious a power move by the males? I'd say it was one thing they did well, actually. It kept Shambo and Laura at eachother's throats, thus ensuring Shambo would stay firmly on the men's side. Not that she wouldn't have any way, but nice to have some assurance. "BTW, chess is a game I know something about and you definitely need an overall strategy to beat a strong opponent." Oh, yes, and never let it be said I don't think Grand Strategy is important. All I'm saying is that I respect some people who failed at Grand Strategy but managed to make a lot of good moves, such as Erinn and Boston Rob. The one player currently using overall strategy exceedingly well, Russell, has a good chance to win, I think. He's been clear from the beginning how he's going to use people (promise them F2), how he's going to choose who to vote for (who's a threat), and how he's going to ensure his safety (finding immunity idols). This is why, even though he has had little to do with masterminding most ousters since the first couple votes (he is always on the right side, but doesn't single-handedly direct other people's votes), people see him as a great player. He's consistent in his strategy, and that strategy has been thus far successful. "The Finale, when it is played at all, is often simply mopping up. Grand Masters never play to checkmate." By which you mean they forfeit? Well, we can understand why that never happens in the endgame of Survivor. However, a number of juries have been foregone conclusions, a sign that the winner played exceptionally well. Tom in Palau, for instance, or JT last year, were grandmaster manipulators. "The strategy is established at some point after those opening moves and, unless one makes a big mistake, it usually decides the outcome. Grand Masters make a hell of a lot less mistakes than Survivors." You have to be some kind of genius to see as many moves ahead as they do. Most Survivors don't fit that bill. The players who most dominated their seasons--Hatch, Yul, All-Star Boston Rob--made plenty of mistakes. I bring up chess because of the stage-metaphor and the general inability to see the final moves from the get-go. Nothing more, though I'm sure there are more similarities to be found. I know people enjoy comparing it to poker because it's a confidence game involving numbers. But poker players are probably smarter than Survivors, too.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-09, 08:17 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
>Are you saying electing
>Shambo exposed the fact that
>there was a male alliance,
>or that electing her was
>too obvious a power move
>by the males? Both and more. We saw that Monica was ready to elect Erik as leader so that would have pleased everyone (especially Shambo) and kept the lid on the men's alliance. Maybe until all the Foa Foas had been removed.
>it was one thing they
>did well, actually. It kept
>Shambo and Laura at eachother's
>throats, thus ensuring Shambo would
>stay firmly on the men's
>side.
?? Why do you want to increase division in a tribe when you're getting close to the merge. That move was as dumb as Marcus splitting the Kota votes between Dan and Susie. And ??? How long did Shambo stay with the men?
>The one player currently using overall
>strategy exceedingly well, Russell...
Although it goes against the main Survivor Strategy, causing small conflicts within a tribe to avoid being the target can be profitable and Russell did it well. Without the sabotages, Scout did practically the same in Vanuatu.
I'm not sure how the rest of his schemes would work in other seasons. For instance: - Making too many F2 promises could have gotten Russell in trouble so I prefer Todd's alliance building scheme. - Finding idols cannot be expected and therefore shouldn't be counted on going in. (In the history of the series only the Guatemala and the Tocantin idols had been possible to find without clues. Despite Russell's claim that he's the only one to find an idol without a clue, how many clues did Gary read?) - Telling everyone he had the idol could have turned against him. >Tom in Palau, for instance,
>or JT last year, were
>grandmaster manipulators...
>The players who most dominated
>their seasons--Hatch, Yul,
>All-Star Boston Rob--
>made plenty of mistakes. Going over all these would take too long. Maybe we can discuss it in some other thread but I've always felt that Tina and Cirie were the best!
I did mean that chessmasters never need to go all the way to checkmate, the game is conceded before the fatal move. The Finale in chess is often more technical than strategic. At least, it is for those who had a good strategy going.
>But poker
>players are probably smarter than
>Survivors, too.
You've already forgotten Jean RoBear? 
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-09, 05:33 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-27-09 AT 05:41 PM (EST)"Why do you want to increase division in a tribe when you're getting close to the merge." As I see it, the division's already there, and they were only increasing it so as to exploit it. My mind is funny on when, exactly, the new leadership vote occured, but it could have been that they thought there was a good chance they'd have another vote before the merge. And it does seem like the powers that be merged them earlier than planned, doesn't it, given how all the challenges are still team-based. If Galue had gone to tribal--which is a big if given Foa's suckitude--what are the odds that it wouldn't have been Shambo vs. Laura/Monica? Barring an end-around by the ladies to steal one of the men's--probably Brett or Dave's--vote (which Shambo's election itself was an attempt to forestall), the men would have had the advantage. As for the election exposing the men's tightness, I think the cat was out of the bag anyway. "And ??? How long did Shambo stay with the men?" Until Erik was voted out. Prior to that, Shambo was opposed to voting for any Galu but Laura. Afterwards, she masterminded the Kelly vote. Now, she seems to be firmly on Foa's side. The Galu men's mistake, in my opinion, was to keep Shambo on a need-to-know basis. She wants to be wanted! Humor her, like Russell has. As it was, they figured Shambo had nowhere to go, so of course she'd have to vote the way they wanted. Except after the merge she had somewhere to go. Once her closest ally, Erik, was gone, her Galu loyalty was gone as well. If the Galu men had a Russell there to stroke her ego and make her a partner in conspiracy, she might still be with them. In any case, neither keeping Shambo in the dark nor voting her leader and increasing division was what sunk the Galu men's plans. They had two votes in which to eliminate Foas beforte Shambo's vote was important. Erik painting a target on his back and Galu not listening to Monica/John about the likelihood of Russell having an idol did. One can say the Shambo element contributed to the Galu women distrusting Erik. But electing her leader itself? I doubt it. Like I said, I think they all knew where the lines were drawn beforehand. "Without the sabotages, Scout did practically the same in Vanuatu." I can't accurately recall Scout's place in the pre-merge Vanuatu chick tribe, but she was old, so no doubt had to be active to avoid an ouster. I do recall that her and Twila prevailed against Ami's clique more because Ami was an idiot and basically told them to their faces that they were on the bottom of the heirarchy than because Scout and Twila were clever. It remains to be seen whether Russell improves on their game in the latter stages, or whether his luck continues and he's playing a bunch of people, like Ami, who telegraph all their moves. "Telling everyone he had the idol could have turned against him." It could have, yes, if he hadn't found another one. Thus comes into play his idol-finding strategy. Not the greaest strategy in terms of my 100-tests standard, but good enough for this season.
"Going over all these would take too long. Maybe we can discuss it in some other thread but I've always felt that Tina and Cirie were the best!" Cirie had some sort of special mind-magic. Tina I'm less enthusiastic about, but come to think of it, she's as good as Tom. His name I picked mostly for how he bullied Ian into quitting, which really impressed me. Tina's coercion of Colby is in many ways equally impressive. I tend to enjoy those players, like Tom, Tina, and JT, who charm the pants off everyone on the show so much so that no one targets them until it's too late. On the other hand, you have people like Rob and Cirie who are not only picking who stays and who goes, but also put it upon themselves to see their plans through, instead of relying on other people to make moves for them. That is more deserving of the mastermind label than Tina and Tom, who as near as I can tell let a lot of votes go the way they were going to go. What in Survivor history can compare to Cirie's plan to make someone give up their immunity or Boston Rob's controlling a vote on the other tribe? That's some advanced gameplay, there. "You've already forgotten Jean RoBear?" I didn't see his season.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-27-09, 07:14 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"My mind is funny on when, exactly, the new leadership vote occured... If Galue had gone to tribal, what are the odds that it wouldn't have been Shambo vs. Laura/Monica?"Shambo's election happened at the beginning of the episode that saw Liz voted out. So, yes they could have gone to tribal but they didn't need to go in divided. At that point, Laura was certain that she was in a strong alliance with Brett, Kelly, John, Dave and Monica. Shambo was considered the next to leave. The guys could have voted out Shambo to keep tribal unity or they could have convinced Laura and Kelly that Monica had to go to keep the tribe strong. Voting Shambo as leader was a big "F**k You" to the women.
Funny for the viewers but totally useless and counter-productive. "In any case, neither keeping Shambo in the dark nor voting her leader and increasing division was what sunk the Galu men's plans. They had two votes in which to eliminate Foas before Shambo's vote was important" Foa Foa didn't need Shambo's vote but they certainly needed Monica, Kelly and Laura's votes, didn't they? The women never agree to vote Erik out if they hadn't been duped during that election. Scout's manipulations were mainly before the merge when a weak older woman is always in danger. She started during the trek to camp when she heard the argument over stopping or pushing forward. She stirred trouble at camp by telling Twila the bowheads weren't working and were laughing at her. She kept bringing up all the conflicts at TC so Jeff would poke his nose into it. "Boston Rob's controlling a vote on the other tribe? That's some advanced gameplay" You keep bringing Boston Rob. I've enjoyed watching Rob in action but mastermind? Come on. Wise @ss, more like it. Morono made many mistakes over his two seasons and he was very lucky to have so many sheeps in Chapera. Controlling the votes on the other tribe? It's easy when you have a final 4 deal with the 2 leaders of that tribe before the season even started.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-09, 11:06 AM (EST)
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42. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
"I've enjoyed watching Rob in action but mastermind? Come on."One must be careful patting Rob on the back too carelessly, given that his first outing was mixed at best. However, every single person voted out at every tribal in which he appeared--and one he didn't--during the All-Star season was his idea, near as I can tell. It didn't appear to ever be a matter of coincidence, either. Rather that his moves--directly or indirectly--in every instance caused them to be voted off. All estimations of personality and entertainment value aside, I think he objectively dominated that season, with the unfortunate exception of the final vote and Alicia/Lex/Big Tom's bruised egos. Or maybe it's just me and I'm easily impressed. Again, one must always bear in mind he fell short of the jury first time around. Also, sometimes I get off on a tangent and use players over and over as examples. "he was very lucky to have so many sheeps in Chapera" Sheep? Some. Alicia was useless. Amber had little business being invited back at all, aside from her looks. But she won, so how much of a sheep could she be? They had Amazon Rob, who's no slouch, and whom Boston Rob wisely snuffed out early. They also had Big Tom. I can never tell if he's a boob or not, but he made it far once, and was slyly planning to torpedo Rob once Lex came into the fold. Coulda worked. "It's easy when you have a final 4 deal with the 2 leaders of that tribe before the season even started" That's part of the game (in all-star seasons). And ask Lex how easy it was. Didn't work out for him. If they had voted off Amber instead of Jerri, it wouldn't have worked out for Rob, either. I'm almost certain of that.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-09, 11:18 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-03-09 AT 11:24 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 12-03-09 AT 11:20 AM (EST) "So, yes they could have gone to tribal but they didn't need to go in divided" They didn't need to, no. But there's one good reason to do so: to ensure Shambo's on your side. Not that she wouldn't be anyway. And maybe it's too big a risk to help ensure something that's all but certain already, but frankly I don;t see much of a risk. If the girls didn't know the guys could possibly be a block by then, they should have. "Voting Shambo as leader was a big 'F**k You' to the women." Was it, though, in effect? I haven't seen any direct evidence the women took it as such. Maybe a little right after the vote, but did Laura and the Laurettes ever come out and say "We can't trust the guys anymore"? More likely, the two sides already knew they were mighty opposites, which is usually the case. You know, with a few question marks, like Brett and Dave. (All the more reason, in my opinion, to lock down the majority clique sooner rather than later, but I digress.) You can say it eventually came back to haunt Erik and thereafter John. But I doubt it. If it was easier to distrust Erik because of pre-merge friction, the leadership vote may have played some part. But did they think Erik masterminded it? And isn't it more likely that they distrusted Erik as a possible Leader of Men before the vote, anyway? Finally, if voting Shambo leader was a big "##### You," the boys hoped--and I think the episode bears them out--that whatever anger it caused would be directed toward Shambo. For Shambo actually being leader would tend to drown out any anger at how she came to be so.
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Colonel Zoidberg 3645 desperate attention whore postings
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11-25-09, 04:40 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
I never said Russell could change his mind and avoid picking a rock by whipping out his idol. What I said was that, had he played his idol before the vote, he would have avoided picking a rock, and as such, he would have telegraphed that he was uncertain enough about the plan to get rid of Laura that he didn't want to take any chances drawing a rock. Russell's not going to put his own neck on the line if he thinks there's even a slim chance of him going.However, by not playing his idol, Russell was saying that he believed the plan was going full speed ahead. John could change his mind in a revote, putting Russell's neck on the line, and I am arguing that he should have done so. Going with the idea of convincing Foa Foa to vote for John would never have worked; simply put, it seemed that Russell knew it was a ploy and wasn't biting. Given that, John's best option was to continue to vote for Natalie. It carries the biggest risk, but there's an 86% chance that he lives.
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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
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12-03-09, 05:08 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
No, Russell would still have had to pick a rock. Playing the immunity idols voids the vote he would have received but, after that, he's just another voter who couldn't decide on breaking a tie. That means he picks a rock.I really don't think so. That was Kathy O'Brien from Marquesas who supplied the jargon, which said …the tied Contestants are now deemed to be immune from elimination at this Tribal Council, and the remaining, non-eliminated, non-tied, Contestants (with the sole exclusion of any remaining, non-tied, Contestant who has previously been granted immunity for this Tribal Council as a result of winning a Challenge) must choose a rock from a bag without looking inside of the bag. But the HII wasn't introduced until Exile Island, so there would have been no references to it in her contract at all. They probably updated the contracts to include it later. The person who has regular immunity is also "just another voter who couldn't decide on breaking a tie," but he/she remains immune from the rock selection. Immunity is immunity -- the HII doesn't confer a lesser immunity than the regular idol. It should be that if you play the HII you can't be eliminated at that Tribal Council, period.
A tribe glows in Brooklyn
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television 272 desperate attention whore postings
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11-21-09, 10:18 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
Why does everyone think it's a bad idea for him? If I were in his position, I would do the same in a heartbeat. You get rid of Laura, you have (what you believe to be) a good relationship with Shambo (I doubt he realizes how tight she is with Russ), the other 3 Galus will get desperate. Next vote, you explain to them your reasoning, get them to vote with you, get shambo to vote with you, and then you've got the numbers again. Even his conversation with Russell, where he said a Foa Foa had to go next if he voted Laura, buys him time to see what he should do, because by then it'll be him and Shambo as swing votes (at least in his mind) with 3 FF and 3 Galu left. They'd be sitting pretty.Of course I don't have as much faith in Shambo as a viewer as I would if I were John in the game, but from his perspective at the time, I think it was a pretty good move.
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television 272 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-09, 07:12 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
I have seen a number of situations where things have worked that way, ie. someone betraying their alliance only to draw them back in later. Notably, Rob C used this tactic on numerous occasions in Amazon. Also, when Amanda was lied to in Fans v. Faves when they voted Ozzy off, Parvati explained it to her next show and she voted with them as if nothing had happened. Why? Because she didn't really have a choice, and it made sense numbers-wise. Some people hold that stuff against others like Lex on a witchhunt, but there are usually people who are willing to think about it logically and see that going with the person that betrayed you will be the best strategy towards winning.Not that I think John's gamble will pay off; I think he'll fail, mostly because of Shambo. But I could see why he'd think he could do what I proposed in my last post, ie. get the remaining Galu to vote with him. What other choice do the 3 remaining galu that were going to force the tie have, other than to vote with John? Would they side with FF to get him off, and then let themselves be pagonged? Probably not.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-22-09, 08:59 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-22-09 AT 09:01 PM (EST)>Rob C used this tactic
>on numerous occasions in Amazon. Not quite: Rob was in an alliance with Alex, Deena, Heidi and Jenna up to the point where Deena turned on Alex. R/A/J/H voted together with Matt to get her out. Then, when Alex made his stupid blunder, Rob went to Matt who thought was aligned with him all along and the other floaters to get Alex out. Those floaters weren't tight like the Foa Foas were so that kept Rob in power. He then stayed with that alliance to vote out Heidi. Jenna only saved herself by winning immunity and because they erronneously thought she was an easy player to beat in the end.
>Also, when Amanda was lied
>to in Fans v. Faves
>when they voted Ozzy off,
>Parvati explained it to her
>next show and she voted
>with them as if nothing
>had happened.
Except John isn't in Amanda's position: He decided to betray Galu by voting against Laura while Amanda voted with Ozzy and didn't betray Parvati because she wasn't told about the vote. Anyway, Amanda, Parvati and Cirie agreed that Ozzy and James had to go early on. Those examples also forget to consider that this season had no trible shuffles to blur the tribal lines: Was Rob Tambaqui or NuJaburu? Was Amanda only in the favorites' camp or also in NuMalakal which included Erik? Here, John was Galu and only Galu. The betrayal is much more personel. >What other choice do the 3
>remaining galu that were going
>to force the tie have,
>other than to vote with
>John? Would they side with
>FF to get him off,
>and then let themselves be
>pagonged? Probably not. I say they probably would but again the main consideration is the jury.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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11-24-09, 07:08 PM (EST)
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32. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
You are right about the order of votes in Amazon:
F7 = Alex
F6 = Christy
F5 = Heidi.
What I meant was that Rob stayed with Matt and Butch, the floaters from his old Tambaqui tribe. Christy caused her own elimination as she decided to sit on the fence and play both sides.
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nailbone 27263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-23-09, 05:00 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: What would you do if you were John?" |
LAST EDITED ON 11-23-09 AT 05:01 PM (EST)IMO, this is a no-brainer. NEVER draw rocks. If John had forced a rock-draw, there was a 1 in howevermany chance that he's going to draw the purple rock and go home while Laura sits immune from the rock-draw. If he swings over and votes with the Foa Foa's to eliminate Laura, there's ZERO chance that he's going home.You can't win if you're on the jury. Now, he's going to have to scramble to either make deals to get back in with the Galu's (who wanted to use him as a pawn), or make some deals with some Foa Foa's, but at least he's still there to make those deals.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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12-05-09, 00:49 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: See?" |
The thing I feel is important to our previous discussion is that, on a last minute decision, Russell was able to get Dave, Monica and Brett to vote out John. John's move last week isolated him and that's never a good idea.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-07-09, 05:31 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: See?" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-07-09 AT 05:34 PM (EST)"That, and trying to get Monica voted out immediately after merge. That's two strikes." I've heard people say that was the beginning of the end for Galu, and I guess, technically, it was. But it wasn't a horrible idea. Unlike voting off Erik, it wasn't merely a selfish suballiance subterfuge. The plan was to still vote for Russell outright and to possibly get the bounceback on Monica. So, yeah, it was selfish too, but not so much as the girls turning on Erik (marginally). That is, if you care about Galu solidarity. Anyway, it could have worked. Would have done the same thing as the girls did to Erik, but the Galu Men would have had a better option of picking up Foas, since they were in on it beforehand. Also, they could carry along Shambo if she thought Laura was next. But this would demand you view Galu as done right then and there. Something John claimed to do with his varsity-level speech, but never actually did since he slogged through the next two votes with the rest of them. As it was, he ended up going with the Foas anyway, only by then he had no leverage. Move earlier, keep the Galu Men close and Shambo closer, and you've got some power. Of course, Erik had one of the worst pitches ever, "Please vote this way, but I don't really care because you're going home anyway," which sunk their chances. Should have been nice and should have come up with a better reason to go for Monica. Hey, maybe not Monica at all. Use Shambo to go through Russell to get off Laura, which is what Shambo and Russell wanted anyway.
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garcor 432 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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12-14-09, 08:46 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: See?" |
Think the only problem with this is it presupposes Foa Foa was ready to make a serious deal with one faction or another from Galu. Turned out they weren't. Instead they, and I guess most of the credit goes to Russell, decided to play the Galu's off against each other.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-15-09, 03:38 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: See?" |
"Think the only problem with this is it presupposes Foa Foa was ready to make a serious deal with one faction or another from Galu. Turned out they weren't."Actually, they were eager to make people flip as soon as the merge. Russell worked on Shambo, Laura, and John; Natalie worked on the Galu girls, and we can assume Jaison and Mick worked on others. They didn't need a deal for TC #1, since Galu ate its own. Neither did they need it for TC #2, because Russ used his idol. By the time it got to TC #3, they absolutely needed help, and got it with Shambo and John. The idea that they wouldn't have accepted a deal earlier when they ended up doing so to get a majority anyway is dubious. Granted, the "deal" they cut with Shambo was devoid of any content besides vote out Laura and proceed from there. And the deal with John, vote out a Foa Foa next, was B.S. But deals they were nonetheless.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-16-09, 12:53 PM (EST)
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60. "RE: See?" |
"What I meant was that Foa Foa was not ready to make a deal that would benefit Galu, they would only make a deal that would benefit Foa Foa."I understand your point, but beggars can't be choosers. Foa Foa was not in a power position until after Kelly's ouster (and in that case, Russell was lucky Galu didn't target him). The odds were long for the Erik and Kelly tribal councils, and especially the first one. A reverse pagong has only ever happened once before, in Tocantins, and that's because Stephen/Taj/JT joined Coach's pathetic "Warrior Alliance" to cut off the dragon's head. Foa Foa could have done something similar, joining half of Galu in voting off the other half. In that case, they wouldn't be helping Galu so much as helping part of Galu. "And the deals you noted above were one-sided; the only Galu who benefited was Shambo, who had already renounced her Galu membership, in deed if not in word." Yes, but bear in mind that Shambo didn't vote with them before the Laura ouster, which means that they had to get through two tribals by the skin of their teeth. They would have loved--yet still been skeptical of--a deal before then. "If Galu had taken out a couple more Foa's before turning on each other, the remaining Foa's would have been more likely to accept any deal that kept them in the game" Obviously, the more depserate you get the more likely it is you'll be voted out.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-17-09, 09:57 AM (EST)
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62. "RE: See?" |
LAST EDITED ON 12-17-09 AT 10:04 AM (EST)"Foa Foa didn't act like beggars." They acted like beggars in the first episode. Or at least Russell did, with Laura and John. Team strategy was to individually suss out various members of Galu, looking for cracks and flippers. And if someone--Natalie with the Galu women, for instance--would have been enticed to vote for someone besides a Foa Foa, I think they would have jumped at it. What's happening here is that since the Mostly Go It Alone plan worked, it warps our hindsight. They went it alone, except for Shambo, out of desperation. There was no other way to go. It makes them appear, in retrospect, strong. However, if it had not been for Natalie's exploitation of John/Erik screwing up the Monica bounceback and Russell's mighty HII play, they (as a team) would have had no chance at all. Their gameplay was what I'd term to a significant degree lucky. Not to take anything away from what Foa Foa accomplished. I'm just saying, if they had been confronted with a plausible deal--if Erik had worked with them instead of being heavy-handed or if Laura-Kelly-Monica had decided to use all of Foa Foa instead of pulling just Natalie into their faction--I think things would have been different. "They acted like they were in a position of strength. If that was largely due to Russell's cockiness and competitiveness (as it appeared)" That impression absolutely was, in my opinion, due to Russell. If you'll recall, their morale was pretty dang low before he found the second idol. That episode and the next, even more than most, was centered, on the Foa Foa side, around whether Russ'd be able to pull it off: whether his idol-play would work, whether he would find the third idol, and whether he would fall for Monica's crappy subterfuge or convince John to flip. Not that his alliance-mates were zombies, but Russ was the Master of the Bold Move. He therefore projected a prejudicial level of power and comfort. "I think Shambo stayed with the Galu's for the Kelly vote because Foa knew they didn't need her anyway, due to Russell's idol." Yes, which was part of my point. The fact that by the third tribal council they did use Shambo and John to gain the majority suggests that Foa Foa wasn't previously in enough of a power position to foresake deals with Galuian suballiances. The Erik boot and Russ' idol worked, but they're not what I'd call power moves. It's just that Russ acts like a power-player no matter what position he's in. "she wasn't needed for the Erik vote either" I hope we can agree, though, that vote was a long-shot, and only really worked because Galu hadn't voted off anyone in a long time and were itchy to do so. Natalie had a lot to do with it, but so far as Grand Foa Foa Strategy was concerned, I bet they'd have preferred a decent John Contra-Monica pitch. Certainly Russell, who didn't trust Natalie's crap-stirring abilities, would have.
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Tublecane 141 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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12-18-09, 10:36 AM (EST)
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64. "RE: See?" |
"I don't think Foa Foa acted like beggars in the first episode. Laura might have treated Russell like a beggar, telling him Galu had all the power but Russell never seemed to accept that interpretation." Really? The proof of the pudding is in the eating, as they say. Russell tried desperately to win some flippers, failed, explicitly told Natalie that he didn't think her ploy worked (not that it was her, necessarily, who caused the Erik vote to happen anyway), ten played his idol. If that's not a guy who thought he had no other option, I don't know who is. "Erik might not have presented the deal well, but don't know why it wasn't plausible." You're right, in and of itself it was not a baddeal, That's what I've been saying all along. If John had presented it better, and tweaked it a bit, I think Foa Foa would have bought in. However, it wasn't presented well. At all. And that's why none of them thought it was real. You say that's because they weren't desperate enough. But the best Russell could come up with instead was playing his idol. Jaison came up with a mild stand against the fates. It wasn't resignation, but at best it was, "Let's hope a miracle happens." Natalie was the only one who did anything, and it was a long shot. "given Russell's attitude, I think his first choice would always have been to use any offered deal as a way to try to split up Galu." Not just any offered deal. Because the "deal" Erik offered wasn't really a deal at all. It wasn't anything Russell or anyone else could work with.
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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
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12-18-09, 09:30 PM (EST)
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65. "I don't See." |
I don't see what point is being defended but there was a reason why Foa Foa stuck together: Galu had shown that they were divided well before the merge.The first hint came when Foa Foa saw Shamboni as the tribe's outsider that Swan sent over and she complained about her tribe. Then they see her voted as new leader!!!! Something was rotten in Galu and that was confirmed when Shambutch sent the viper queen to Foa Foa. Galu died when Swan almost did. It was a big carcass but, with a common plan and a bit of luck (let's call it that), Foa Foa was in charge even before they got the numbers. It was a question of choosing from a number of cracks, most of which were provided by john.
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