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"Who's the 4th?"

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sol 219 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"	10-18-08, 10:26 AM (EST)
"Who's the 4th?"
Historically, castaways like to make a tight alliance of 2 and a strong 4 person alliance. When 4 Kota castaways formed an allaince they looked like a formidable group with a good chance of going to the F4, but the switch eliminated Jacquie, and now we see a few groups of 3. Marcus, Charlie and Corine are left, and the previews indicate Matty will join Ace and Sugar. When GC 'quit' he left Crystal, Ken and Kelly as a trio. So who’s the fourth? Marcus, Charlie and Corine could recruit another from NuKota, but who? Randy is too much of a loose cannon, and his scene of ‘swimming’ while the rest of the tribe are bonding while enjoying the fruitful bounty of their RC win is a clear indicator he wont be a dependable ally to anyone. Susie is too weak, and last week Marcus said she looked ‘disinterested’ (as she yawned). Dan can’t keep his mouth shut, so that leaves an old, and not that strong, Bob to be a fourth. Mmmmm, scratching my head to decide whether that will work to F4 – I just don’t see it. And who will Ace, Sugar and Matty consider as a 4th? Meanwhile, Crystal, Ken and Kelly seem to have a game plan that includes a vacation … do any of them really want to sit on the jury?
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Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID

RE: Who's the 4th? garcor 10-18-08 1

RE: Who's the 4th? michel 10-19-08 2

   RE: Who's the 4th? Brownroach 10-23-08 3

       RE: Who's the 4th? michel 10-23-08 4

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garcor 432 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
10-18-08, 02:34 PM (EST)

1. "RE: Who's the 4th?"

Assuming Matty does join Ace/Sugar, I could see them approaching either Ken or Kelly. I'd prefer to see it be Ken as he seems more into the game and might be willing to cut Crystal and Kelly loose. More likely Kelly as they would probably see Ken and Crystal as too closely allied to split now. Don't think Crystal would be approached as she comes across as wanting to be in charge (without the title of leader) which would mean immediate conflict.
Would like to see Randy in the Marcus alliance. Think he's capable of operating inside an alliance, especially if he sees it as a strong alliance likely to get him to final four. Self-interest and all. Suppose Bob would be most likely to be approached as original Lota member who is unlikely to go on a challenge run after merge.
Another possibility would be that no one will be added till after merge. Isn't that usually at 10.

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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-19-08, 12:32 PM (EST)

2. "RE: Who's the 4th?"

LAST EDITED ON 10-19-08 AT 12:33 PM (EST)
"Historically, castaways like to make a tight alliance of 2 and a strong 4 person alliance."
I always like a posts that looks at history:
S1: Tagi4 succeeded mainly because it was season 1 and Sean stuck to his alphabet strategy.
S2: Ogakor was an alliance of 5 from day 1.
S3: Samburu had 2 alliances of 4 that destroyed each other. Boran was mainly an alliance of 3 that got lucky.
S4: Rotu was an alliance of 4 that collapsed. Kathy put together a last minute alliance of 5 to beat them.
S5: Chewing Gum was an alliance of 5 while Suck Job had 4 people at its core. Chewing Gum was able to recruit Shii Ann even if it didn't matter.
S6: Alliances were a mess! The cute girls were an alliance of 3 that recruited Deena against the older women. The guys were in a loose alliance of 5 against 3 outsiders. At merge it was an alliance of 6 that took over but they started eating each other. Fun season!
S7: Both Drake and Morgan started as alliances of 5.
S8: Pre-season alliances affected play too much. At its core, Chapera was an alliance of 5.
S9: Lopevi were the Flab5 while Yasur had 4 burly girls going against 4 bowheads. After the merge, a 6 women alliance collapsed, letting the lone man win.
S10: Koror was an alliance of 5
S11: Casaya appeared as an alliance of 4 Nutballs but we found out that Cirie was their 5th from the start. LaMina was an alliance of 4 that lost.
S12: Nakum's "Axis of Evil" was an alliance of 6 which collapsed after the merge, opening the door for Danni.
S13: Aitutaki was an alliance of 5. The Aitu4 wound up together because of the mutiny. Raro was a mess.
S14: Earl had many alliances. Yau Man was his #2 but he always had many players with him. Moto was originally an alliance of 5 but when it became the 4 Horsemen, they didn't stand a chance against Earl.
S15: Todd had a core 3 that soon added Courtney and Denise to be 5 strong. James replaced Aaron at the merge. Zhan Hu had too many in-fighting to form a solid alliance but they did try to keep 5 players together. However, Frosti tried his luck with Todd at the merge. With a 7 person alliance at the merge, Todd smartly got rid of 1 of his own each time he could before the alliance had a chance to collapse.
S16: Malakal, despite being experienced players, started out as 2 alliances of 4 but the couples alliance gained power when Parvati and Amanda recruited Cirie. Airai was an alliance of 7 that collapsed. The witches' alliance that won the end game was an alliance of 5.
S17: The Onion alliance had 2 players that added Jacquie and Corinne but even they understood they needed a 5th, Bob.
All this to say that, no, historically, the strongest alliances have been made up of 5 people. Larger ones have often collapsed under their own weight while alliances of 4 get beaten (Rotu, Suck Job, LaMina...)
With Marcus, Charlie, Corinne and Bob making up Kota's core, the question is: Who is their 5th? Right now, Marcus seems to count Randy but he may be hoping Ace makes the merge.

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Brownroach 14241 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-23-08, 12:55 PM (EST)

3. "RE: Who's the 4th?"

Don't you have seasons 11 and 12 reversed? I thought Danni's season was S11, Aras was S12.
Surfkitten Summer Sigshop 2008

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michel 10812 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
10-23-08, 05:09 PM (EST)

4. "RE: Who's the 4th?"

Sorry for the mix-up.

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