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sgoogs 32 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 02-17-01, 04:48 AM (EST) "a thought on the spoiler we DO have" from MADDOG'S CHAT... ********************************************* Ajsurvivor: Whom do you still talk with from the show? Maralyn Hershey: Let's see… Kel, Colby, Keith, Tina, Debb, Jeff, Mitch, Kimmi, Alicia, and I just spoke with Rodger the other day. ******************************* Ok lets take a look at this,,, MAD DOG SAID Kel, Mitch Colby Keith Tina, Debb, Jeff Rodger Kimmi Alicia SHE DIDN"T SAY jeri --- amber -- Mike -- liz -- nick -- ########################### Who is Makes the Merger ########################### keeping in mind that we have spoilers that say "there are more men than women at the merger." "one tribe loses 3 IC in a row" Facts: one tribe loses 3 IC in a row Ogakor lost 3 in row therefore Kucha loses EP5 IC 6 to 4 -- man to women ratio at the merger. at present (pre EP5) there are 6 women thus Two Women must go before the merger. therefore No men can go. ############################# THOSE MAD DOG MENTIONED in her chat GONE aready are: Debb, 1st Kel, 2st Mitch, 4th ------ HER TRIBE LEFT- Ogakor Colby, MADDOG liked him Member NEW Ogakor alliance (OA) --Male -- GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 Keith, MADDOG liked him (OA) --Male -- GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 Tina, MADDOG really liked her (OA) ------------GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 THE OTHER TRIBE - Kucha Alicia, EP5 GONE or ?---- how does MADDOG know her? EP5 MB misdirection He intimates that Kimmi goes in EP5, Alica is the real threat along with Jeff. Alica goes in EP5 . or gone in EP6 if Kucha loses 2 IC in a row(*) as MB's misdirection is not misdirection Jeff, EP? ---- Male ---GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 how does MADDOG know him? Rodger EP? ---- Male ---GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 how does MADDOG know him? would know liz also if he and Liz had been booted in the same time frame. This seems very good for Liz Kimmi, EP5 GONE or ? ---- how does MADDOG know her? must go to merger keep the proper ratio of of 6-4 at merger unless Kucha loses 2 IC in a row(*). or is gone is EP5 as MB's misdirection is no misdirection ############################## MADDOG didn't mention that she kept in touch with.... Mike -- Male ---GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 LIZ -----------GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 MADDOG would know liz also if she had been booted near rodger or before him. Nick -- Male ---GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 jeri --- EP6 GONE targeted for ep5, but Ogakor wins IC or goes to merger if Kucha Loses 2 IC in a row. amber --- GO STRAIGHT TO THE MERGER COLECT $200.00 no threat to the OA ################################# IN AT MERGER Mike -- liz -- rodger -- goes early? --- Knows MAD DOG nick -- Jeff -- goes early? --- Knows MAD DOG (*)Alica/Kimmi -- goes early? --- Knows MAD DOG amber-- Colby-- OA Keith--OA Tina--OA (*jerri if Kucha loses 2 IC in a row)   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    A few disagreements AyatollahKhomeini 02-17-01 1    RE: A few disagreements sgoogs 02-17-01 2    I agree AK Siebured 02-17-01 3        RE: I agree AK MistyG 02-17-01 6  RE: Working on the 6-man/4-woman Me... Dalton 02-17-01 4  RE: a thought on the spoiler we DO ... Tamia2001 02-17-01 5  RE: a thought on the spoiler we DO ... Minstrel 02-18-01 7    RE: a thought on the spoiler we DO ... Kokoro 02-18-01 8

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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator" 02-17-01, 05:16 AM (EST) 1. "A few disagreements" I disagree that Mad Dog's chat tells us much about the bootees in E5 and E6 -- I will argue below that it tells us nothing. BUT I think it tells us A LOT about the people who make it to the end of the game. Here's why: E5 potential boots -- Alicia and Kimmi. Maralyn keeps in touch with both. Therefore one probably goes pre-merger and the other goes post-merger but not among the last few (so Maralyn has a chance to know them both). E6 potential boots -- Jerri and Tina. Maralyn would like to take Jerri back to the crocodile pit and push her in. She wouldn't keep in touch with Jerri if they lived next door. Maralyn felt "conjoined" with Tina and did not know that Tina had voted her off. She would have kept in touch no matter what. So, again, we learn nothing. BUT let's look at the other people left off Maralyn's list: Michael -- religious, likely to be friendly with Tina if he was voted out, conclusion: does not leave island until last four, if then. Nick -- potentially just not the type who would spend much time talking to Maralyn (could you imagine him being on The Price Is Right?), or maybe a finalist, he's certainly capable of it. Liz -- MB chose to show us that Jeff and Alicia thought she could win it all if they didn't get her off the tribe, certainly likely to be friends with Maralyn if she ever met her, conclusion: does not leave island until last four, if then. Amber -- some of Maralyn's anger at Jerri could spill over to Amber, especially if Amber double-crosses the other Ogawhore to save herself, but (other than being friends with Jerri) she seems nice, and Maralyn didn't hold the fact that Alicia and Mitchell are friends with Jerri against them, conclusion: goes deep into the game, maybe final four! Of course these are not final conclusions. BUT they do fit the data!   Top

sgoogs 32 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 02-17-01, 12:14 PM (EST) 2. "RE: A few disagreements" I agree that it doesn't tell us much about the 5 and 6 bootees however, with that said,, we know that 2 women must go if we rule out Liz and Amber do to the Maddog chat. and kucha loses the EP5 IC so in EP5 either Alica or Kimmi will go has to be one of them,,,, as for ep6 I say not Tina, cuz Ogakor now has the focus of attempting to be a strong tribe at the merger (after jeff's comment "kucha is kicking your ass" I don't think that Colby will turn on Tina or Keith ,, it is not in his Post merger interest,, and MB tease suggests the he might,, so he won't,, i think O will be logical from here out and think as a tribe) with that said,, we also have Tina's phone call home,, to suggest that she stays, thus in EP6 it's either jerri or alicia/kimmi I think the real question here is "of these 3 girls which makes the merger"   Top

Siebured 83 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 02-17-01, 04:24 PM (EST) 3. "I agree AK" Earlier I posted that Amber goes in E5, please disregard, there's no way Amber's going anywhere soon. I kinda set up a grid with all the booties comments on who they still talk to, or have mentioned as friends. Now we haven't heard from Mitch yet, but we do know he went to the premier with Jerri, Alicia, & Jeff. (this may not be valid, we may have to wait 'til his online chat) Here it is: ........Deb......Kel....MD.....Mitch Alicia....................x.........x Kimmi....x........x Liz.. Nick Mike.....x........x Roger....................x Jeff.....x..........................x Amber Jerri...............................x Tina.....................x Keith....................x Colby....................x There are only 3 people on this list that have no x's. Amber, Liz and Nick. You are right on with those 3. But, also notice that Mike, Kimmi, Alicia & Jeff already have 2 x's. I'll bet Mike goes sooner than you think. We'll know more after some Mitch interviews. Link for Kel interview: http://www.canoe.ca/JamSurvivor2/feb17_kel-sun.html Too many posts for me today!   Top

MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 02-17-01, 11:18 PM (EST) 6. "RE: I agree AK" Just as added information, Kel mentioned on Rosie O'Donnell that the way Jeff was portrayed on the show was different than what he knew of him... i'm paraphrasing badly, but he made it out like they keep in touch as well.   Top

Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 02-17-01, 04:44 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Working on the 6-man/4-woman Merger Theory...." which seems to have the most validity to me means: We already have the 6 men: OG - Colby OG - Keith KU - Jeff KU - Mike KU - Rodger KU - Nick ........that is the male line-up at Merger. (4 Kucha and 2 Ogakor) As of now, we have two women to many (all agreed). Therefore, in E5 and E6 two of these women have to be voted OFF: OG - Tina OG - Jerri OG - Amber KU - Alicia KU - Elisabeth KU - Kimmi ........So, here are my two women picks to go the next two weeks in E5 and E6, with explanations. OGAKOR Tribe - The Colby/Keith/Tina unit will gel quickly because frankly the CowBoy is sick and tired of LOSING. Amber may become an instant "convert" to their side but either way she & Jerri have to work hard NOT to go back to TC before the MERGE. I definitely think Ogakor wins Immunity next week (E5) and hopefully again in E6....which would put all five of them in the merge. The only thing wrong at this point is that under this theory in the next two weeks in a row the four men of Kucha -- Mike Jeff Rodger and Nick....would have to VOTE OFF 2 of the 3 female tribemates. I just can't see that happening!!! Those four guys are not a cohesive unit. In fact they are being held together by their alliances with Alicia & Elisabeth. They are NOT going to face Elisabeth, Alicia and Kimmi in TC and vote TWO of them off one right after another. No Way!! If, in E5, Kucha goes to TC and votes off Alicia or Kimmi. Yes. Right on!!! But the next TC rolls around in three days and the 4 men and 2 women left in Kucha are NOT going to vote a physically strong man (like Mike or Nick) out of the tribe on their last chance before merger????? That does not make sense. There is no bond between these guys; plus Kucha has been eager to boot Mike and/or Nick from the start. Therefore I am stuck. If two women leave in the next two weeks....it will be one from Kucha--either Kimmi or Alicia-- and one from Ogakor and that is Jerri. Anyway that is my thinking. Dalton   Top

Tamia2001 0 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "New Member" 02-17-01, 04:56 PM (EST) 5. "RE: a thought on the spoiler we DO have" As I see it,we really can't trust any of the latest losers when they appear on The Early Show,etc. They have certainly been coached and told what to say.Talk about red herrings!! On the other hand,was the first bootee coached into the "Kimmi-flight-home" remark? It sure seems that the most recent bootees are not giving out as much info. Rosie O. is the person who forced it out of Kel that a cameraman had told him about the beef jerky lie,and that's how he learned about it.And Rosie questioned,as a lot of us do,if that his knowledge of the accusation before hand did not indeed influence his(Kel's) reactions when he confronted the Ogakor tribe.....minus their leader Colby..... And now Rosie isn't getting the bootees the next day,like she was along with Regis.   Top

Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star" 02-18-01, 06:02 PM (EST) 7. "RE: a thought on the spoiler we DO have" Many people associated with each other in OZ. Maralyn said on TV she still keeps in touch with a few of them. She also said that she and Keith went over to Kel and apologized for the beef jerky incident prior to Kel being voted off, but CBS didn't show that part. (Of course not! That would foreshadow the ire of Keith and the Maralyn attempts in E3 to dethrone Jerri's alliance). But 6-4 men to women has many permutations including how Kucha could go into the merger up 7-3! Kucha has likely targets of Kimmi, Nick, Mike, Rodger, and Elisabeth for different reasons and degrees of possibility. Ogakor could hit ANY of the remaining five. Individual immunity coming around the bend with the merger targets the strong and the most threatening. Largely that is men but people like Tina and Jerri are prime targets too. Then there's the team immunity concept if it still is important to the tribes. Continuance of booting non-performers, isolated members, and people disliked. Again, people like Kimmi, Nick, Mike, Keith, and Jerri are leading candidates. What I see is Ogakor jostling for position to stay alive individually, while Kucha is team orientated still. There's no doubt that E6 is likely to show more thinking along merger lines by both tribes, but E5 is a mix. Due to losing immunity Ogakor has had to think more along both strategies of merger and team causing the mix of voting strategy we see. Obviously, Jerri's alliance wasn't as powerful as she thought and now has to be more cautious. I see Nick, Mike, Jeff, and Colby the safest of the men. Alicia, Elisabeth, and maybe Amber the safest women. Right there is nearly a two person advantage men to women. Maralyn, BTW, could have sat next to Alicia on the plane home for all we know, and got to know a bit about her and could have hung out with her a bit at OZ, but that would have nothing to do with predicting the merger. Look at likely targets right now and we see Kimmi and Jerri the most. Followed by Tina and Amber for the women. Keith is the most likely male followed by Rodger, Mike, and Nick (all to some degree). However, I do not see support that Kucha has to lose immunity this week regardless of Kimmi. Any combination of Jerri, Tina, and Amber could give us 6-4 men just as axing Kimmi and Jerri would. It depends largely on Ogakor I think. Just how safe is Keith? Do they win immunity at all?   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 02-18-01, 06:12 PM (EST) 8. "RE: a thought on the spoiler we DO have" There's a small problem there in that the 6-4 theory (or at least the article that it appeared in) is a total sham. It could really go any way now....not saying it can't happen but if something's given it's usually the opposite....   Top

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