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"Who is second person elimated after the merge?"
esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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11-04-05, 09:20 AM (EST)
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"Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
Last week I made the observation that the first person elimated after the merge has almost always been a guy. Now the question is who is the second person elimated after the merge. Athough you would think (at least I did) that if the first person voted out after the merge was a male in 90% of the prior versions of the game, that there would be some preference for males as the second person elimated after the merge as well. However, the second person elimated is just as likely to be a male as a female (Greg, Alicia, Kelly, John, Penny, Dave, Ryan, Kathy, Lea and Janu). This is a group of 5 males and 5 females. The bias toward booting males seems to end after the first merge TC Does anyone see any other trend in this group of 10? There are only 3 contestants among this group that I would call a leader of a minority faction (Greg, John and Lea). Only half of them I would call the major threat to win lots of challenges and were in a minority faction (Greg, Alicia, Dave, Ryan and Lea). Generally this group was were liked by the other survivors (Although Kelly was booted for the false perception that she had turned on Lex and Janu did not seem well liked by her teammates othere than Coby)
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Rasta 210 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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11-04-05, 12:55 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
Minority tribe members at F9 (BOOTEE in caps)Borneo: GREG, Jenna, Gervace, Colleen Pagong didn't even realize they were being targeted yet. Hatch's foursome targeted the biggest all-around threat in Greg. Outback: ALICIA, Roger, Elisabeth, Nick Colby & crew targeted the biggest threat athletically. Africa: Frank, Theresa, Brandon, KimP Frank and Theresa had already crossed over to Boran at this point (although Theresa sneakily cast her vote for Lex). Brandon would have been next, except that Lex mistakenly thought Kelly had turned on him. Marquesas: Boston Rob, Sean, Vicepia The 3 Maraamus joined Neleh and Pascal to upset John's evil foursome in the Best Survivor Move ever. Could we see this again in Guatemala? Thailand: Late merge this season. The former Chuay Gahn's targeted Ken, Penny and Jake (in that order). They basically voted against the most athletic player each time. Amazon: Dave was voted out. He was strong and athletic, but he was also tight with Roger (who everyone hated). Pearl Islands: Can't remember. All-Stars: Too much personal drama to tell us anything. Vanautu: SARGE, Chad and Chris The women went to merge up 6-4, then ran off men in 3 straight TCs. At this point, Sarge was the biggest threat. Pulau: Stephanie was the only Ulong left in the game, and would have gone home if Janu hadn't quit. CONCLUSION: Unless there's a shakeup, the strongest member of the minority tribe is usually the target at this point. In Gautemala, that means BJ is a goner. Maybe Danni, BJ & Gary can pull a Marquesas-style coup.
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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-04-05, 08:34 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
Just to complete:
Pearl Island: RYAN, Tijuana, Darrah and Lillian.
Savage had refused Rupert's offer to align so as leader of his tribe, was first boot after merge when Lillian defected. Ryan was the next strongest remaining player in the minority.
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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-04-05, 08:38 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
This one is a gimme, it is BJ. Editing, numbers, everything we have seen dictates this weeks boot. 
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-04-05, 11:44 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
Nice analysis of the history, everyone!
Agree with KO, it's BJ unless he gets immunity, which he won't. As KO said, the editing says he won't. His sendoff is already going to consist of three episodes with a ton of facetime, and four eps would be overkill.Just behind BJ, you can see Jamie's arc timed to crest just behind BJ's, like a series of waves coming in. Jamie's time started with the merge episode, next time we will root for him to leave, and the next time we get satisfaction. At least that's how I see it after last night. I think this season differs from any other in that the least athletic players got systematically cut pre-merge with only Lydia saved by numbers. There have never been so many strong people in a post-merge situation that I can recall, and that is bound to intensify the focus on booting potential challenge hogs. This group has consistently undervalued the abilities of women other than Steph to win anything, whether or not they are right to do so remains to be seen, but I wouldn't be surprised if they boot three men post-merge before they target a woman. 
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-07-05, 06:02 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
Good analysis, but I hope yunz ain't right about BJ being next. With Jamie and Judd both being such total a$$holes, I'll scream if they don't boot one of them this episode.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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11-07-05, 06:46 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
Round Robin, sorry, I can't see it as anyone but BJ as they just can't leave three Yaxha to band together and they need to secure the game. A million dollars on the line, these people are playing for the money not to have fun in camp. Besides, if they remove BJ, the Jamie/BJ tension will be gone. This is a tribe that offed Margaret as a solution to the Judd/Margaret tension. While I don't follow confessional analysis to the degree that Corvis does -- rightly or wrongly, I don't make a distinction between T's and D's because I like to keep it simple -- there are only so many confessionals to go around and last week we heard a lot about what's in Bobby Jon's head (and saw Jamie from the outside) and I expect that to follow with BJ's boot. Then we will get Jamie's "redemption" episode next time, in my opinion, and taking into account such spoilers as we have.
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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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11-10-05, 01:19 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Who is second person elimated after the merge?" |
I don't follow the complex theories that closely either, but there is a very simple, straightforward Survivor strategy reason to boot BJ, which is his status as a challenge threat. That plus the fact of his not being an obvious final 2 foil a la Judd or Jamie make him too much of a risk to keep around, so I suspect you're right and they'll boot him. Which would blow because it still leaves those 2 a$$holes in the game. AAAARRRRGGGGHHHH!!!!
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