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"Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 00:07 AM (EST)
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"Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
LAST EDITED ON 01-24-05 AT 09:11 PM (EST)


(Updated 1/23 to add confessionals from E! Cast announcement and EP1 Promo from 1/21.)


The cast for S10 has been announced, and a steady stream of promos has been used to introduce them to us. Confessionals have been used to help glimpse the personalities of the contestants we will get to know as the series unfolds.

During the show, confessionals become the device used to narrate the story MB wants to tell. They can be edited and twisted to take us down any number of paths, depending on which way MB wants to take us. However, while we wait for the story to begin, confessionals are being used to set the stage and help us get to know the characters, so we become more emotionally involved and begin to identify with them.

We know that three of the twenty contestants will be eliminated before the end of EP1. We can begin to speculate about who they will be, and how their characters will be developed during their short time in the game.

The EP1 boot has traditionally had a greater number of confessionals and more face time than those contestants who will last much longer into the game. They have plenty of time for character development in later episodes.

Three of those who are shown in confessionals and featured in the vidcaps are getting some of their face time pre-show. There is a lot to cover in EP1, and to some extent MB needs to develop three of the characters before they go home.

So, as we look at the pre-show confessionals, study the quotes and analyze the vidcaps, we should pay close attention to those who appear to be main characters going into in EP1. Our EP1 boots will probably come from this group…

The following list is a summary of all the pre-show confessionals aired to date. The cast introduction on the Web Promo consisted of a single confessional for each of the 20 contestants. The other two promos that included confessionals were more selective in the ones used, and therefore more telling.

Also included are voiceover comments made about the contestants by others.


CONFESSIONAL QUOTES:


Wanda Shirk, a 55-year-old English teacher from Ulysses, Pa.;

(sings) "...Survivors and we can find our food, Survivors that is our attitude..." (Early Show Promo)

<sings>” Survivors and we can take the pain. Survivors in sunshine or in rain.” (Web Promo)


Coby Archa, 32, a hairdresser from Athens, Texas;

Lisa Gibbons: “And even one contestant who has done time in jail and used to be homeless. Not a bad resume for this show.” (ET Promo)

“I know what it's like to sleep in an alley or cardboard box and have a rat crawl on you.” (ET Promo)

VO: Then there is Coby, a hairstylist from Texas.
Coby: "I'm a really good liar with people I don't know, whereas I'm a horrible liar to people I do know. So, we'll see." (E! Cast Announcement)

“I became the funny guy out of sheer defense. Because being the gawky gay kid on the playground you had to have something going your way.” (Web Promo)

Coby: "And it's just gonna get worse." (EP1 Promo 1/21)


Ashlee Ashby, a 22-year-old fitness counselor from South Carolina;

Lisa Gibbons: “But there's one female who won't be easy. Meet Ashlee, the God-fearing mid-westerner, who, all looks aside, will only go so far for that million dollar prize.” (ET Promo)

“They are astonished to believe, oh yeah, right, "you're a Mormon and you haven't had sex?" (ET Promo)

“People are very surprised when I tell them that I am a Mormon. My sexuality and being seen as a sex symbol. It's a good thing.” (Web Promo)


Jonathan Libby, 23, who is in sales and marketing and hails from Dallas, Texas;

"My family told me right off the bat....that if I'm the first one voted off...don't come home". (Early Show Promo)

"My whole family said if I'm the first one voted off, don't come home. Just did it as a joke. All my friends did too. They.. you know... you did so bad, what a waste. But I, I'm going to be around, I think I'm going to be around for a while." (E! Cast Announcement)

Bob Windsor: “Jonathan is a true Survivor, having beaten cancer last year.” (Web Promo)

“That was a really challenging thing mentally. I think that's the biggest thing I've ever had to overcome in my whole life.” (Web Promo)


Gregg Carey, 27, a business consultant from Chicago;

Bob Windsor: “Gregg is an Ivy League grad.” (Web Promo)

“I'm a down to earth guy that's fun to just grab a beer with.” (Web Promo)

Gregg: "Getting a little paranoid." (EP1 Promo 1/21)


Katie Gallagher, 29, an ad executive from Merced, Calif.;

“Ok this is my message to everyone else. I'm not here to win a million dollars, I'm here to lose some weight.” (Web Promo)

Katie: "It's weird." (EP1 Promo 1/21)


James Miller, a 33-year-old steel worker from Mobile, Ala.;

"I'm gonna be the first redneck to win a million dollars, on this show" (Early Show Promo)

"My name is James Miller. Uh... They're going to look at me and they're going to say I'm probably... weaker, you know. Cause I'm skinny and I'm... I look frail, but I'm a steel worker, man! I, I take steel, I crush it, just like that. Bad m***-f***, I'm telling you." (E! Cast Announcement)

Lisa Gibbons: “ Looks like stereotypes will be shattered with Survivor: Palau premieres February 17th, on CBS. Although Jim from Alabama is going to be embracing his roots.” (ET Promo)

“I'm a bad m***** f****** redneck. You damn right. I'm gonna come here and steal the show. That's what I'm here to do. Take a million dollars and pay off some debts because I'm a broke #####. Come on.” (ET Promo)

“I'm gonna be the first redneck to win a million dollars. I'm gonna come here and steal the show. That's what I'm here to do. Take a million dollars and pay off some debts.” (Web Promo)


Caryn Groedel, 46, is a lawyer from Ohio.

“I've only lost 2 jury trials in my career and I think I can be very persuasive.” (Web Promo)

Caryn: "We don't know what's going on." (EP1 Promo 1/21)


Jolanda Jones, a 39-year-old lawyer from Houston, Texas;

“I think I'm as good as anybody. And that offends a lot of people.” (Web Promo)


Willard Smith from Bellevue, Wash., a 57-year-old lawyer;

"If you get me in front of a jury, I'll win the million dollars" (Early Show Promo)

“If you get me in front of the jury, I'll win the million dollars.” (Web Promo)


Stephenie LaGrossa, 25, a pharmaceutical sales rep from Philadelphia;

“People think that I am the girl next door. Which is a nice thing. I think that's a compliment. When they get to know me, I think that they realize that I'm a little nutty.” (Web Promo)

Stephenie: "This is a very different Survivor." (EP1 Promo 1/21)


Angie Jakusz, a 24-year-old bartender from New Orleans;

"I have the freak factor working for me...I stick out like I'm the only woman who's ever looked like this on Survivor" (Early Show Promo)

VO: There's Angie, a bartender from New Orleans.
Angie: "I'm totally rearing to go, like, I can't wait to use one of those Hawaiian slings, like so bad. I'm like, oh my God, I have to spear-fish!" (E! Cast Announcement)

“I have the freak factor working for me. I stick out.” (Web Promo)


Ian Rosenberger, 23, a dolphin trainer from Key Largo, Fla.;

“I'm perfect for it. I always said I could talk a fat man out of his last bag of Doritos.” (Web Promo)


Kimberly Mullen, 25, is a graduate student and former Miss Ohio USA from Huber Heights, Ohio;

"And unless I can get a boy to fall in love with me, and use that to my advantage...then...then my looks can play a factor, because there are some hot boys" (Early Show Promo)

Bob Windsor: “Kimberly can even speak a little Arabic.” (Web Promo)

“<speaking Arabic>” (Web Promo)


Bobby Jon Drinkard, 27 and a waiter from Troy, Ala.;

"These M60s I got right here, are waiting for everyone to come get a little piece of" (Early Show Promo)

Lisa Gibbons: (introducing Bobby Jon)“…and she's not the only new Survivor hoping to score with sex appeal.” (ET Promo)

“Flirting is fun, man. And it makes people smile, they like that. They need that, that's what they're supposed to get. They're females. They need to be lifted up.” (ET Promo)

“I'm a strong Christian. And a lot of the things I do, a lot of the ways I act are from the Bible.” (Web Promo)


Ibrehem Rahman, another 27-year-old waiter from Alabama;

Bob Windsor: “ Ibrehem says he's the silly one.” (Web Promo)

“I think that being an attractive or good looking person can be good for you if you use it right.” (Web Promo)

"My first name is Ibrehem. I think me being a Muslim... eh... you know, you don't have to be a Muslim to be this type of person. I'm just not a back-bitter type or ... uh... uh... drama-queen type of guy that kicks up a lot of mess." (E! Cast Announcement)


Jennifer Lyon, 32, a nanny from Encino, Calif.

"Being one of the more attractive people, I think it's uh...it's gonna be a challenge...to do just the right amount of flirting, and just the...not doing it and stepping on other people's toes" (Early Show Promo)

“It's going to be a challenge to do just the right amount of flirting.” (Extra Promo)

Bob Windsor: “ Here is Jen, the nanny.” (Web Promo)
“I don't mind getting dirty. Getting right in the middle of it.” (Web Promo)


Janu Tornell, 39, a Las Vegas show girl;

Lisa Gibbons: “Here's one player who knows that what happens on the island, stays on the island.” (ET Promo)

“I came here to win the million dollars and become the Vegas Showgirl Survivor.” (ET Promo)

Reporter: This time the action takes place in the South Pacific paradise, Palau. In a new twist, the competition kicks off with 20 colorful castaways, including a Vegas showgirl. (Extra Promo)

“Topless is one of the first questions that they want to know about. Ummm, face it, sex sells.” (Extra Promo)

“I am a Vegas showgirl. A live one. I love performing. I love performing on a stage. If you like me that's great, if you don't, oh well.” (Web Promo)


Jeff Wilson, 22, a personal trainer from Ventura, Calif.;

Bob Windsor: “And big Jeff is 21 years young.” (Web Promo)

“I guarantee you I'm going to work harder for the money than anyone here.” (Web Promo)


Tom Westman, a 41-year-old New York City firefighter.
"I like my job. There's no two fires are the same. There's not two circumstances in this game are the same". (Early Show Promo)

Bob Windsor: “And Tom's a NYC firefighter.” (Web Promo)

“I like my job. There's no two fires are the same. There's no two circumstances in this game are the same.” (Web Promo)


CONFESSIONAL COUNT:

The Survivors are ranked by the number of confessionals. The “+” mark after the confessional count indicates additional comments by others.

HIGH RISK:

Coby…(4++)
James…(4+)
Janu…(3++)
Jennifer…(3+)
Bobby Jon…(3+)
Jonathan…(3+)
Angie…(3+)


MODERATE RISK:

Ashlee…(2+)
Kimberley…(2+)
Tom…(2+)
Ibrehem…(2+) (Weight Loss Spoiler)
Gregg…(2+) (Weight Loss Spoiler)
Katie…(2) (Weight Loss Spoiler)
Wanda…(2)
Willard…(2)
Stephenie…(2) (Weight Loss Spoiler)
Caryn…(2)


LOW RISK:

Jeff…(1+)
Jolanda…(1)
Ian…(1)


CONFESSIONAL ANALYSIS:

The hypothesis is that given the large number of contestants (20), and the amount of information that needs to be presented during the premiere episode, MB must use the promos and pre-show confessionals as a supplement to the first episode.

Three, rather than the usual one, contestants will leave the game before the end of EP1, and three characters will need to be developed to some extent, especially if their departure is to be “very emotional”, as MB has told us.

So, it follows that the editors need a head start with their character development, in order to have the audience get to know the EP1 boots before their departure. The pre-show confessionals are the best way to introduce them to us.

It’s also true that the editors have plenty of time to develop those characters who will be in the game for a while, so there’s no need to waste the precious promo time on them.

Therefore, we might conclude that those with the most pre-show confessionals are more likely to be EP1 boots than those with the fewest.

As more vidcaps become available, and actual confessionals from EP1 appear in the promos, we can further refine our conclusions.


WEIGHT LOSS CONFIRMATION

It’s interesting to note that none of the contestants reported to have had significant weight loss, and therefore speculated to make the merge, fall into the “High Risk” category, based on confessional count.


CONCLUSIONS:

Those in the “Low Risk” Category are probably safe in EP1, while the “High Risk” group should be considered vulnerable candidates for the first three boots of S10.



Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis cuon10 01-19-05 1
 RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis VolcanicGlass 01-19-05 2
   RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Krautboy 01-19-05 6
   RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Brownroach 01-19-05 7
       RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Loree 01-20-05 15
           RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Brownroach 01-20-05 17
               RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis PhoenixMons 01-20-05 19
   RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis FesterFan1 01-19-05 9
       RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis VolcanicGlass 01-19-05 11
           RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Krautboy 01-19-05 14
   E! voiceover text? Krautboy 01-19-05 10
       RE: E! voiceover text? tribephyl 01-19-05 12
           RE: E! voiceover text? Krautboy 01-19-05 13
 Thanks, as always PhoenixMons 01-19-05 3
   RE: Thanks, as always cuon10 01-19-05 4
 RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Flowerpower 01-19-05 5
 Excellent, as always JohnMc 01-19-05 8
   RE: Excellent, as always aethelstan 01-20-05 16
       RE: Excellent, as always Brownroach 01-20-05 18
           RE: Excellent, as always PhoenixMons 01-20-05 20
               RE: Excellent, as always Brownroach 01-20-05 21
 RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis Krautboy 01-23-05 22

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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 00:34 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
I would hazard to guess that Janu is going to be one of those 3.
Hayseed (James) is a probable one and I would guess Jennifer is going to be the other one. But I definitely would bid farewell to Janu.
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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 02:25 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Hi Krautboy - ;)

The footage on the Early Show, ET and Extra all came from the same interviews. Only E! had exclusive content.

CBS pre-selected which footage to send out, but the Media Kit contained interviews with all 20 players. It doesn't seem likely that ET and Extra were told which players to highlight. Each show selected the bits that they wanted to feature, probably the most provocative/interesting personalities.

The Web Promo featured all 20 players, so that's a wash.

Strictly speaking, in terms of confessionals, what could be noteworthy is who CBS chose to quote on the Early Show: Wanda, Jonathan, James, Willard, Angie, Kimberly, Bobby Jon, Jennifer and Tom.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 11:16 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Hi VG!

Thanks a lot for bursting my confessional analysis bubble!
You're so darn logical...I love that!

I didn't understand how the media footage distribution works. Thanks for the explanation. In that case I would agree that the Early show selections are the only thing really noteworthy.

It is a curious coincidence however, that several of those going far in the game as indicated by weight loss are the less provacative characters. Flying under the radar may be the successful strategy in S10.

At least we have all the pre-show quotes in one place for handy reference, so it wasn't a complete waste of time.

The basic hypothesis may still be valid, we just haven't seen enough CBS controlled footage yet to test it. As we get closer to Feb 17th, I'll be looking at who is featured in the confessionals and which characters get the most face time in the previews leading up to the premiere.

And VG, thanks for keeping me from drifting too far astray with my delirious late night analysis...


Krautboy

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 11:17 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
For Vanuatu, the Early Show confessional clips were of John P (3rd boot), Mia (4th boot), Lisa (7th boot), Chad (3rd post-merge boot), Eliza (booted at F4), and Twila (F2 loser).

Seems like an assortment -- two early-ish boots, two midgame-ish boots, two late boots. I'm not sure the first bootee has ever been spotlighted on TES. Though with three departures in Ep 1, at least one of them might be there this time.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 09:44 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Before Vanuatu started I heard the most about Dolly. And she was the first female they booted. But they really played up her "character" before the show started. It was like she was doomed.
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 10:35 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
That's true, she did seem to be in lot of the commercials. Funny that TES chose to show Chad and Lisa, both of whom were fairly bland characters that didn't get much screen time on the show.


Bridge for sale to highest bidder. Call 1-800-BRroach.

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PhoenixMons 4696 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 12:30 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Well Chad's visibility pre-show was almost certainly because of his being an amputee. That's a great hook to get people watching (same as Christy from Amazon). As for Lisa's - I dunno. Maybe they thought people would be mesmerized by her Skeletor oobies?

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FesterFan1 5947 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 11:49 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
While it may be a wash in terms of "new" material, it should be noted that the interview footage that CBS provided to the other media outlets was edited down. So CBS is filtering what info it wants the media to have about each player at this point. I guess what I'm getting at here is that there is still a potential message about some/all of the Survivors that SEG wants the media to have.

It won't help in determining the first boots (outside of TES's chosen "confessors"), but it might help in terms of understanding what story SEG will be trying to tell about certain players. For example, they're definitely playing up James's character to be the Boston Rob/Johnny Fairplay of S10. Other players (like Stephenie and Katie) they're maybe keeping closer to the vest at this point. Maybe they didn't offer up much good material in their interviews, or maybe they're trying to minimize buzz about them right out of the gate.

I still think this analysis has some value, even if it's long term. Here are some of the SEG nuggets from the initial interviews before Vanuatu for comparison:

Ami: "I want somebody to know that they can count on me and everybody is saying don't trust anyone, don't trust anyone. Not me. I can't not trust people so I might get screwed in the long run but at least I know I live the way I live my life."

This one clearly could be attributed to her individual story on the show.
----------------------------
Brady: "Odds are, females win the show, more times than us. I think there is a lot of reasons for that but I think one of them is guys have an alpha male thing going and it's like when I walk my dog, he is fine with all the other dogs that are smaller than him but he wants to pick a fight with any dog bigger than him."

This one, while it led to his demise, was more of a constant theme for Lopevi related to the Fat Five v. the Fit Four.
-----------------------------
Brook: "hopefully after this, I can travel the world or something and spend all that beautiful money I'm going to make winning Survivor Vanuatu...If there was no million bucks, I would put the same amount of energy and same amount of passion just to play to be the Sole Survivor, the winner in the end...When Survivor is over, I hope I get a million dollars out of it."

This is just full of irony, MB-style.
-----------------------------
Chris: "I am here for the money, I am here to win the million dollars. The adventure comes along with that, great, I'll take the adventure too but bottom line, it's all about a million bucks.

Somebody approaches me, and you know, wants to have a confrontation, and fine, we'll have a confrontation. I'm not someone who is going to back down, I'm somebody who is going to stand up.

My overall strategy in the game is basically going to be determined the day I step onto the beach and talk to seven people on my tribe.

I have to adapt to the people around me. I may have to change, I may not be able to be as blunt or straightforward as I normally am.

For the people who take it too seriously about lying and cheating in this game, well they need to go to summer camp or you know, maybe they need to go to a church league and hang out there for the summer.

The game is probably 80% mental 20% physical. Yea, I'm mentally prepared. I've watched them all so watching just mentally prepared."

And on and on it goes.

Fester

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VolcanicGlass 428 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 04:11 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Fester, yes the content of the confessionals can be quite telling. For example, in the pre-game interviews for All-Stars, Amber was shown saying that everyone would underestimate her as they didn't think she belonged there.

Janu talking about the Vegas showgirl angle is a hook to get interest. Janu talking about not caring whether she is liked or not gives us insight into her possible approach to the game.

Krautboy, the E! transcript is posted at Phoenix.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 06:25 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Thanks for the transcript! I'll update the quotes tonight.

I thought I checked there, but must have gotten a bit confused navigating around...


Krautboy

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 03:31 PM (EST)
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10. "E! voiceover text?"
Has anyone seen a transcript of the voiceover for the E! Promo. I noticed the vidcaps are posted but haven't seen the text anywhere?

I'd like to add the confessionals from that promo to the collection...


Krautboy

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 04:26 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: E! voiceover text?"
LAST EDITED ON 01-20-05 AT 05:24 AM (EST)

Although I cannot help you with a transcript of the E! promo ... (I've been searching high and low for it.)
ETA: Thanks VG for the directions.
(BTW, I really love the amount of cross-over help/postings we at Blows have been getting already this season.)

From the vidcaps of the E! promo. Now we can hear/read what they are saying.


Jonathan: "My whole family said if I'm the first one voted off, don't come home. Just did it as a joke. All my friends did too. They.. you know... you did so bad, what a waste. But I, I'm going to be around, I think I'm going to be around for a while."


Angie: "I'm totally rearing to go, like, I can't wait to use one of those Hawaiian slings, like so bad. I'm like, oh my God, I have to spear-fish!"


Ibrehem: "My first name is Ibrehem. I think me being a Muslim... eh... you know, you don't have to be a Muslim to be this type of person. I'm just not a back-bitter type or ... uh... uh... drama-queen type of guy that kicks up a lot of mess."


Coby: "I'm a really good liar with people I don't know, whereas I'm a horrible liar to people I do know. So, we'll see."


James: "My name is James Miller. Uh... They're going to look at me and they're going to say I'm probably... weaker, you know. Cause I'm skinny and I'm... I look frail, but I'm a steel worker, man! I, I take steel, I crush it, just like that. Bad m***-f***, I'm telling you."

Sn'DCS©MMIV

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 06:21 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: E! voiceover text?"
Thanks Tribe!

Check VG's post above...


Krautboy

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PhoenixMons 4696 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 03:39 AM (EST)
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3. "Thanks, as always"
Thanks for the analysis, KB!

Just a few thoughts.

As far as Janu, I don't know that her confessional count is as risky as it looks. I think the 'showgirl' is being used more as advertisement for the show than anything else. I'd think it would be a good way to reel in people who don't normally watch Survivor. Her confessionals are all about her being a showgirl. Highlighing the topless angle is sure to get some new viewers!

I think Bobby Jon is toast. The editing we're getting for him is certainly not making him out to be any kind of game player and we're seeing an awful lot of him.

I think Ashlee is probably in danger, too. She has been featured in pics/caps quite a bit - now that may be in part because of her extremely large flotation devices, but she's certainly getting a lot of time on screen.

James is probably another early boot. He just seems like a typical (historically speaking) first boot type...this is a young group of Survivors (in comparison with previous seasons - at least is seems to be) and a very diverse group as well. James announcing his redneck-ness may not be a strong point for him when it comes to seeking out and then gaining allies.

It sure would help to know how these first two are being booted. If it's not any sort of vote amongst the survivors, than all we have to go on is pre-show editing in face time/confessionals and what they say in their confessionals.

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cuon10 473 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 08:11 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Thanks, as always"
You have some good points, but here is the thing. Reading Janu's bio and different things about her, she comes across as a
b***h and while they always need one on there, she also comes off as someone who is a "primadonna"type. Usually a 39yo primadonna does not mix well with the younger girls. I just don't see her getting down and dirty like the others might have to and I also think she is looking for exposure. Yet you never truly know. alot of times they are nothing like what you read or even like their audition tapes. Bobby Jon is not long for booting, but James is truly carrying the "redneck" thing too far.
I lived in Tennessee for ten years, 4 in Memphis and 6 in east, I was born in Virginia and have lived all over the US and 5 years in Europe and his redneckness is actual stupidity on his part. Hopefully, in the name of good tv they will vote him off quickly. I was trying to decide who to root for by the bios and that sort of thing;Jennifer was one of those who struck me as kind of interesting. She is a photographer which is interesting and might give her an advantage on reading people. The thing is she is a little stuck on herself. That was disappointing. Ashlee is another that I thought might be worth rooting for. But her age could make her an early boot. I am sticking with the belief Janu,James and Jennifer may be the first boots. Alternates would probably be Bobby Jon and Wanda.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 08:28 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
LAST EDITED ON 01-19-05 AT 08:28 AM (EST)

Krautboy, well done! An excellent beginning to the invaluable confessional analysis that served us extremely well last season, as it has in seasons past as well. I am in complete agreement. With the number of bootees the first show slated to be 3, pre-game confessionals are a means to develop all of the them. It is most logical that the ep. 1 bootees will indeed have higher confessional counts and exposure than surviovrs that last far longer into the show.

I also think that some of the features are intended to capture a viewing audience, such has been mentioned regarding Janu. Right now I'm leaning toward Ashlee, James, and Bobby John-boy...let's see what unfolds as the weeks progress.


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JohnMc 2679 desperate attention whore postings
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01-19-05, 11:47 AM (EST)
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8. "Excellent, as always"
One thing I find interesting is the amount of confessionals, particularly these:

Janu…(3++)
James…(3+)
Jennifer…(3+)
Bobby Jon…(3+)

If there are 3 boots on the first ep, then I'd venture to guess that at least 1 of not all 3 come from the above list.

Thx, Krautboy!

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aethelstan 4435 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 10:03 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Excellent, as always"
In another thread, it has been mentioned that Ibrahem and Bobby Jon recognized that they have a mutual friend. Seems to me that they must spend a fair amount of time together to get to discussing mutual contacts though I could see a 'work' discussion happening early enough.
Regardless, it does suggest that if Bobby Jon leaves early, Ibrahem may not be too far behind. Alternatively, Ibrahem staying a while may suggest that Bobby Jon is safe at first too. I wonder if Ibrahem speaks any Arabic because since Katie? (Jennifer?) does as well, there will be an alliance assumption.


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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 10:45 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Excellent, as always"
LAST EDITED ON 01-20-05 AT 11:07 AM (EST)

Though it's possible, I also doubt the mutual friend would come up in the first three days. And Bobby Jon and Ibrehem are not seen in proximity to each other in any of the caps we have so far. Another thing to consider is that by day three they may be on different tribes.

ETA: Kimberly is the one that speaks Arabic, stan.


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PhoenixMons 4696 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 12:44 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Excellent, as always"
See, I disagree. I think this sort of conversation would happen pretty soon.

They do a lot of 'feeling out' of the others early on so they can determine who would be good alliance mates. I don't see why their very similar backgrounds wouldn't come up at some point in the first three days when that's sort of the entire focus of the game (building relationships and such) at that point. If I were stranded with a bunch of strangers, I know the first thing I'd want to do is get to know as much about people as possible so I could use that info to figure out who I wanted to ally with.

I also know if I were out there and found out that there was someone from my state with a VERY similar career history and a common employment link (both were featured in Cosmo), I'd be working that bond to form an instant alliance. I'm sure it wouldn't take long for them to realize that they both were in Cosmo (people in the entertainment/modeling fields generally like to 'brag' about their accomplishments - especially amongst other entertainers/models)...then the natural progression of the conversation might be 'hey do you know so and so'...

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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01-20-05, 01:11 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Excellent, as always"
LAST EDITED ON 01-20-05 AT 01:26 PM (EST)

Maybe. On the one hand, I thought the fact that the cast won't really know what the heck is going on when they first get there might make them reticent to start opening up right away. On the other hand, they might just while away the time talking about their lives back home while they are waiting for further instructions from Pretty Boy Probst.

If we already had caps of Ibrehem and Bobby Jon in a conversation, I'd say never mind, but we don't (yet).

ETA: And they both might try to conceal/play down the fact that they are models, for fear of the other cast members' initial reactions. In which case, it really might be awhile before they discover what they have in common.


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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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01-23-05, 06:23 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Pre-Show Confessional Analysis"
Confessional quotes and count updated on 1/23 to include recent EP1 Promo...

Coby has moved up into the "High Risk" Category while Ian, Jolanda and Jeff fly under the radar.


Krautboy

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