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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest" 02-14-03, 11:23 AM (EST) "Who gets booted before the merge" Last night before the airing of episode 1 I was thinking about how the voting would go in tribes that were all one sex. The episode confirmed what my pre-episode conclusions. In the past, when you were playing as a team you rarely voted out your very physically strong members (with the rare exceptions of Hunter). You needed them to avoid losing Immunity Challenges. However, in an all male tribe, that stregnth is of much less value. Even if you vote off the young and strong, you still have a big stregnth edge over your opponents. So, even though in the past someone like Ryan was never voted off in episode 1, this time his strongest points are of little value and out he goes. In addition, voting off the strongest guys before the merge makes things easier for the remaining guys once the merge does take place and everyone is competing as individuals. This does not bode well for other young and strong guys like Daniel and Matt. However, being strong is of very big importance for the woman tribe. They are much weaker, and they know it. They can't afford to vote out anyone who provides them stregnth. It is a much needed asset for them. That should mean that the strong females have little to worry about before the merge. From last nights episode, Deena, Joanne and Jeanne looked like the strong woman. Does this make sense to others?   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Peaches 02-15-03 1    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... I_AM_HE 02-15-03 2    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... DeadInTheWater 02-15-03 3    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... SurvivinDawg 02-19-03 11  Good Point IslandFever 02-15-03 4  RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Spidey 02-16-03 5    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... VerucaSalt 02-16-03 6  RE: Who gets booted before the merg... DRONES 02-17-03 7  RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Booted 02-17-03 8  Wrong about Christy IslandFever 02-18-03 9  RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Brownroach 02-19-03 10    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Loree 02-19-03 13        RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Brownroach 02-19-03 14    RE: Who gets booted before the merg... Ahtumbreez 02-20-03 17  What you're all forgetting... SurvivinDawg 02-19-03 12    Social groups and Relationships Krautboy 02-19-03 15        RE: Social groups and Relationships Tyler J 02-19-03 16

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Peaches 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 02-15-03, 09:11 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" LAST EDITED ON 02-15-03 AT 09:19 PM (EST) >They are much >weaker, and they know it. I'm sorry... obviously you weren't watching the same immunity challenge that I was... Even with one member sick... and one deaf member... the women absolutely WIPED UP THE FLOOR with the men... in what was mostly a PHYSICAL challenge... just an observation... edited to add: Yes... I realized the ladies almost tanked it on the deciphering part of the challenge... but they were always ahead of the men on the physical aspects of it. *stepping down off of my soap box... as this should not have been done in the SPOILER'S section* Sorry all.   Top

I_AM_HE 6123 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-15-03, 09:21 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" LAST EDITED ON 02-15-03 AT 09:22 PM (EST) i wouldn't call it a mostly physical challenge really and the men had a 20 minute lead before Ryan Daniel (brother of Jack Daniel(s)) blew it   Top

DeadInTheWater 51 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 02-15-03, 09:33 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" Mostly a physical challenge? In my opinion, I don't think it was that physical of a challenge, in that it didn't require much physical strength on the part of anyone. There was the running portion (and they didn't even run that far), the two puzzles, and the balance beam. Walking a balance beam isn't really a physical challenge requiring strength, just mostly balance. So, I agree that the women are probably physically weaker. I don't think their horrible camp conditions are going to improve upon that much either. I agree with your theory about how the makeup of the tribes has changed the voting patterns....Perfect example is Pastor John from S5. The guy didn't come across half as abrasive or authoritarian as Roger did, yet John was voted out right away, in a pretty decisive manner while Roger survived on a close vote.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-19-03, 01:03 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" I wouldn't say the women "absolutely wiped up the floor" at all on that challenge. They were 20 minutes behind until Daniel squandered it on the balance beam. He gets over it in half the time then they have more time to get the puzzle done, and I am willing to bet it would've been much closer. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 02-15-03, 09:37 PM (EST) 4. "Good Point" The men had a 20 minute lead on the women. If it hadn't been for Daniel blowing it they would have won easily. Certainly Daniel's days are numbered. And he is perceived as lazy. I was trying to think of the obvious losers prior to the merger and I would guess Robert, Daniel, and Dave. And Christy, Janet, and Jenna. The Chiller thinks Christy and Jenna go far. I just don't know if I buy into his "spoiler". Matthew supposedly lost significant weight so maybe he makes the jury. Your theory would help an older male and hurt an older female. So no Kathy type making it to the end this time. I think Butch makes it far. He reportedly loses weight and has support in his tribe. But Robert cooked his goose early.   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-16-03, 11:39 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" My $0.02: The most expendable guys are Daniel, Dave and Roger, because he is such a bossy thang. Weight loss confirmed for Butch, Matt, and Rob. Alex is a toss up. He seems innoccuous enough (and not hard to look at). Not sure where he ends up. Ladies: Look for Janet to be boot #1. The ladies need all of their strength and she is clearly not physically up to this. Not sure about Jeanne, didn't get much of a look at her this ep, but I am guessing a pre-merge boot, once her contemporary (Janet) is gone. I can't imagine Jenna sticking around long, despite spoliers to the contrary. She seems sooo useless. Tribal dynamics will be key for the rest of them, as they all seem quite fit (Deena, Joanna, Heidi, Shawna). Christy is my ladies toss-up. I think it will mostly depend on how well she adapts. If her deafness is not a hinderance for the tribe and she is otherwise an asset, she could coast UTR for a while.   Top

VerucaSalt 1580 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Peanut Festival Grand Marshall" 02-16-03, 04:45 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" We have kind of covered this subject in pre show topics but I think generally with a tribe of all men and all women; the women are going to take out the weakest members BECAUSE they are women competing againt men OR they will take out someone who is completely and utterly Debbing the tribe. Janet is the smartest choice and I think the women understand they have men to compete against and it won't bode well for them to keep a non athletic weak and self admitted "tired of this" woman on hand when they have some big fish to fry. With the exception of someone stealing (hmmm) OR someone who is fracturing the tribe to horrific porportions, Janet is the one who should go The men are different in this case and I think personally they may make the worst choices over the women because they will be blinded by their own egos. Ryan's chat stated that Roger immediately let Ryan know he did not like him and Ryan, Matthew, Daniel could not stand Roger acting like the big cheese as opposed to Dave or Rob who probably felt the same way but are smart enough to realize that Roger is a good source for use right now. The potential for the next boot would be Roger again and Daniel or even Matthew (Matthew voted on ego alone, IMO, his pre vote speech spoke a lot to me) However, IMO Roger is still useful and Butch, Dave, Alex, probably Rob know this. Daniel has strikes on him from his earlier posturing as well as the slacking but for some reason I see Matthew taking a louder stance against Roger this time. HOWEVER, Matthew appears to contribute more which is in his favor over Daniel. In no particularly order I see an earlier merger therefore, Janet and Joanna due to weakness and Debness/Lindaness and over at the men Daniel evening it up to 12 with the merger with someone like Roger going soon thereafter. While Deena seems to fall into the Debbness category, the showing of that bonding with Christy seems to indicate a bit of a safety net and I think Joanna's praising may be worse than Deena's bossiness.   Top

DRONES 615 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 02-17-03, 08:18 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" I agree with your theory, although IMO guys like Matt and Daniel are still of some value to their tribe and it would be foolish to vote off all of your strength early on. Ryans vote seemed to be one of personality conflict as opposed to voting a stronger member because it will help you later. It is going to very interesting to see if the women can make the tough choice and vote off a nice and likable, although physically inferior teammate, because it is the best decission for the team. This decission will not be as easy for them as it seems, especially if the teammate makes a play within the group to stay.   Top

Booted 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 02-17-03, 01:09 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" LAST EDITED ON 02-17-03 AT 01:17 PM (EST) edited to fix spelling Here are my picks for the 5 that I think get booted before the merge. Obviously it will matter who wins the tribal immunity, but this is my quess and why... Daniel - Not contributing. Can still be saved if he wakes up and becomes Mr Worker. Janet - Being sick and weak will send her packing. Even if she starts to feel better I don't think she can be saved. Joanna - Being loud and "different" I think they will boot her. At this point, I think there will be a swap. There is a great thread going on that subject and I will not discuss it here. At this point I think this is what will save Christy. I think she will find some simpathetic men in her tribe. I also think will speed Rogers demise. Roger - Being bossy, not being tolerant and not taking the merge well will mean he gets booted. Now all the easy ones are done and on the last one before the merge... hhmmmmm... I am going to stick my neck out and pick... (Shawna... or Jenna... Shawna or Jenna) I will pick Jenna. I think she gets split up from the feather alliance, ends up with enough woman that don't like her behavior with the men and conspire to get the booted off. Ok.. so.. who else is going to give their list? Everyone Boot Ed   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 02-18-03, 08:42 PM (EST) 9. "Wrong about Christy" I admit I am having a hard time getting a handle on the women. I read a post that Christy didn't lose any weight but it was the posters first post, sometimes a giveaway to false info. And other posters contradicted it. I think the best info we have is the purported weight loss info and then the foot in mouth slips of the evicted. So now things look pretty good for Matthew, Deena, Butch, and Christy or Heidi. Ryan gave us good info in his chat. Positive for Christy and negative for Rob and Dave. And I believe Ryan as he is not the rocket scientist. Dave is.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-19-03, 12:27 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" This is slightly off-topic here, but it does relate to tribal dynamics, and there is no other thread that seems any more appropriate to put it in. Anyway, I was wondering: Was touching permissible in the balance beam cross? I didn't hear Jiffy say anything one way or the other when he was giving the instructions. I noticed that when the women went across, in at least some cases the second one in the pair was holding on (gently) to the first one, which I would think was a steadying factor. But none of the men did this. Did they think they were not allowed to support each other, or were they just too macho to have any physical contact with each other? Or were they in fact not supposed to help each other, but Jiffy overlooked this in order to let the women catch up? Whatever...it was kind of a metaphor for the women thinking of the importance of teamwork, while the men seem disconnected from each other by contrast. I agree that the women would first vote out the people who are most likely to hamper their tribe in the challenges.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-19-03, 01:41 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" The men were touching each other also on the beam (that does sound funny). But they were trying to pull each other off the end. So touching was permitted. They just acted more like they didn't want help while walking across.   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-19-03, 02:35 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" That's right, Ryan did help Daniel roll off the end of the beam. Well maybe if they'd tried hanging onto to each other when they were walking across they would have done a lot better. Idjuts.   Top

Ahtumbreez 10456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-20-03, 08:02 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Who gets booted before the merge" *or were they just too macho to have any physical contact with each other? It's that Male Macho Syndrome, MMS, you know, the one that occurs frenquently when two men go to a theatre together. There HAS to be one seat empty between each male. Or, gasp, their arms might touch on the armrest. (c) 2003 GeorgiaBelle Creations,Inc. All rights reserved Celebrity Mole PTTE Champion   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-19-03, 01:11 PM (EST) 12. "What you're all forgetting..." One thing you're all forgetting: Survivor has ALWAYS been about the personal relationships, NOT the physical abilities in the challenges. And this holds perfectly true in this one, as well. The only time I can recall someone truly being saved for a time because of physical abilities is Clarence in S-III. Kel in S-II, Hunter in S-IV, etc. were waxed because of their interpersonal skills (or lack of them). This Survivor is shaping up to be the same. Ryan was waxed because the men formed two groups based on interpersonal relationships, and Ryan was on the wrong end. As to the women, while a "mercy" waxing is likely for Janet (sick people do tend to get waxed early, even athletic ones like S-3 Jessie and S-5 Tanya), athletic ability is NOT going to determine future boots. Fact is, all of these people are athletic, and MB makes them work out prior to going to the location. So it will be what social groups form that determines early ousters. Contradictions don't exist. If you are faced with a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong. -- Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 02-19-03, 03:51 PM (EST) 15. "Social groups and Relationships" LAST EDITED ON 02-19-03 AT 06:43 PM (EST) Dawg: Nice to see you posting. Understand your busy, but your input is always valuable when you get the time... We're not "all forgetting", we just haven't all expressed it as well as you have. Here's a picture from the CBS Website that helps to make your point: Shortly after the womens victory in EP1. The body language illustrates that Janet, Joanna and Deean have probably not built the personal relationships that the others have. Shawna, Jeanne, and Christy have apparently already build a relationship, Heidi and Jenna have too, and we've seen Jeanne braiding Heidi and Jennas hair. So, those on the outside who have not yet formed the "social groups" you mention, and as a result the most vulnerable, are Janet, Joanna and Deena. Edited to add: Janet is holding on to the Immunity Idol for dear life...she knows she was saved by immunity in EP1. Krautboy   Top

Tyler J 4 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson" 02-19-03, 05:24 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Social groups and Relationships" I always think I can pick the next five to go after the first episode but usually there are one or two who, by hook or by crook, are able to sneak their way into the merge. Janet's gone for sure. If she stays I'll eat my hat. Dave won't last long 'cuz his 'holier-than-thou' attitude will not get him far. You have to get real lucky and pull and Ethan to win this game with 'integrity'. Danny Boy is toast also, barring a miracle, as he is the obvious get-out-of-Jail-free vote for the men if they have to go back to TC. The other bootees are up in the air, I could possibl-i see that dude Matt going, or Roger. Roger will probly tone down his bossiness hardcore, after getting 3 votes. The girls team, aside from Janet, is a toss-up. I'll have to see more in ep. 2 before I can pinpoint likely targets to Join Cryin' Ryan in the loser lodge!!   Top

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