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tahitigal 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-04-02, 01:23 PM (EST) "Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Hi everyone! It is long lost tahitigal - I have been lurking since the beginning and decided to post to see what everyone thought! Please be gentle on me!! I was wondering what you all think if it came down to Brian and Clay for the final 2, **who on the jury would vote for Clay and who would vote for Brian? ** I don't necessarily like Clay, but I picked his name out of hat for our office pool and was wondering what my chances are of winning the $$!! Sorry - Just a thought!! Thanks!!   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... toddE 12-04-02 1  RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... bubbastan 12-04-02 2    RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... tahitigal 12-04-02 3  Claymation's deals frisky 12-04-02 4    RE: Claymation's deals lizzmac 12-05-02 11        Who should Brian vote for in F4? forehead 12-05-02 12        RE: Claymation's deals Brownroach 12-05-02 13  RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... dabo 12-04-02 5    RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... tahitigal 12-05-02 6  RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... fivestarwheezy 12-05-02 7    RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... bubbastan 12-05-02 8        RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... fivestarwheezy 12-05-02 10  RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... Brownroach 12-05-02 9    RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... tahitigal 12-06-02 14        RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... Brownroach 12-06-02 15            RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... dabo 12-12-02 21  RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... SurvivaBear 12-06-02 16  Penny's vote chlim01 12-07-02 17    RE: Penny's vote frisky 12-09-02 18  RE: Does Clay have a chance of winn... ringtheory 12-10-02 19  Jake on Brian chlim01 12-10-02 20  Not so sure AresMars 12-12-02 22    RE: Not so sure Spidey 12-12-02 23        Nothing is for sure SurvivaBear 12-12-02 24  The Porno King takes it all and a f... IslandFever 12-12-02 25  Yes! steppingrazor42 12-14-02 26

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toddE 1433 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson" 12-04-02, 02:15 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" LAST EDITED ON 12-06-02 AT 01:32 PM (EST) If it is indeed Clay vs. Brian Ken would definitely choose Clay Penny would definitely chooe Clay Erin likes CLay too, so that's 3 Helen would probably choose Brian, Same with Jan Ted-totally depends on what happens next, if Brian is seen to stab him in the back or not. Jake--Brian because he doesn't like Clay So, 3-3, with Ted making the deciding vote for his friend Brian, or against his ex-friend, backstabbing Brian   Top

bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-04-02, 03:09 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Tahitigal, I also picked Clay in a random pool, and I've grown to like this guy for his amusing comments and his shrewd approach to the game. But anyway, back to the question at hand, here's what I can see potentially happening if Brian and Clay are indeed F2: Erin, Penny, Ken - Vote for Clay. I've noticed that none of the Sookies have had anything negative to say about Clay at all in their post-boot interviews. Ken did have negative words for Brian in his Today Show interview. Penny is aware that Clay didn't vote for her, so I think she's a lock. Erin didn't really seem to be put off by all the "flattery" that Clay heaped on her, in fact, I think she sort of took it as good-natured flirting rather than old-goat lechery. I really didn't notice Brian and Erin bonding at any point, so I'll give the nod to Clay here. Helen, Ted, Jake - Vote for Brian. Helen and Ted's votes depend on the manner in which they are booted, and who they see as having turned on them, so they are not quite a sure thing, but at this point in time, they both seem tighter with Brian. Ted might have some hard feelings that Clay pulled Brian over the wall in the Wk10 RC and left him dangling, and Helen has already given Clay votes in the past. Jake and Clay clearly haven't been portrayed as getting along, a situation which appears will be exacerbated in this week's show. Jake is also aware that Clay suckered him into believing that Ted was the man on the chopping block instead of the actual target of Ken. Jan - she's the wild card in all of this. We haven't been privy to much of her thoughts, and there has got to be some reason why. She has given Clay a vote in the past, but was also pictured as defending his ass fixation in the recrap. She clearly took directions from Brian in the Wk10 IC, but is the bond strong enough to pull her vote in his direction? I think if Clay does make F2, he's definitely got a shot at winning. Just my thoughts at this point in time, who knows what will happen in the last few eps?   Top

tahitigal 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-04-02, 03:46 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?- thanks!" Thanks bubbastan and I agree that it may be too soon to tell regarding how Jan and Ted would vote. Lets hope for the sake of our pool $ that this final 2 "spoiler" is a good one and as I keep saying "Mr. Clay is going all the way!!". It should be interesting to see how this is all going to play out!   Top

frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 04:17 PM (EST) 4. "Claymation's deals" The major difference between Clay and Brian at this point is that Brian seems to making final two deals while Clay is making final four deals. The final four deals give Clay a lot more breathing room, IMHO, because when a person is voted out he has two other people in the perceived alliance that he can point the finger at. Brian isn't giving himself the same kind of leverage. Eventually, he will personally have to break a promise to at least one tribemate. (Even though his promise is just "yeah" to us, it's perceived as a promise by the promisee). Clay's final four deals are a better strategy. He avoids voting for the bootee, making the others look like the bad guys, then he'll come up with an explanation for the vote switch. He'll be doing this tomorrow night when he explains his Jake vote to the tribe. He'll cause a big ruckus about Jake's TC speech, when he knew all along he was securing Penny's vote in the end.   Top

lizzmac 131 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson" 12-05-02, 06:20 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Claymation's deals" Unless I'm not thinking this all through properly - an entirely plausible scenario - Brian certainly could get to F2 without betraying someone. Say he has F2 deals with both Ted and Clay... all he has to do is lose the final IC (without making it look too obvious) - and the winner will vote the other guy out. Thereby allowing Brian to uphold his word (technically), and also perhaps gaining a vote at the final TC. Lizzmac   Top

forehead 932 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-05-02, 06:38 PM (EST) 12. "Who should Brian vote for in F4?" Lizzmac, I agree with your observations for the final IC. Certainly, this is what Rich did in S1. The F3 IC will be "Indiana Jones" like - so unless they're being tied to a pole and have to keep their eyes closed, this may not be "Hands on the idol". Brian will need to control himself better in a race type challenge, to throw this one. It gets trickier if Brian has F2 deals with Ted, Clay AND Helen. What will his voting behavior reveal at the final 4 TC? We currently have no info on the F4 IC, but it has traditionally been Fallen Comrades held at TC. With B/C/T/H, I would give Helen a good chance to win immunity. Now, Brian will have to vote against one of his "F2 partners". This should be interesting. If Jan, however, slips into the F4, AND IF Brian has no F2 pact with Jan, he can easily throw a vote against Jan. While we know B/C as F2, I'm not clear on the PTT TDT F2, nor on who will win. But Clay's scheming for Penny's vote may actually help him...   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-05-02, 06:38 PM (EST) 13. "RE: Claymation's deals" Yes, you are thinking it through exactly right, LizzMac. If Brian can nurture both of his alliances without revealing his duplicity (and I think he can), all he has to do is get himself, Clay, and Ted to Final 3. Then he can let Ted and Clay fight it out for final immunity, knowing that the winner will take him to the Final 2, and he won't have backstabbed the other one. Brian in effect has two people watching his back; Clay really has none.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-04-02, 07:11 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" *waves hi to tahitigal!* Yes, if Clay gets to the final two he might win. Unlike in Big Brother, the jurists in Survivor are only aware of what they experienced in the game and witnessed at TC, so there is a tremendous possibility that few of them will be influenced by Clay's more poisonous attributes. Ken, Penny and Jake may have issues with Clay over the misleading Ted vote, but in this Survivor the players do seem to be aware that it is a game, so that might not hurt his chances with all of them. It may destroy him in the end, too. Hard to say at this point. Anyway *HI!* ARRRRRRR!!!!   Top

tahitigal 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-05-02, 10:59 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?- Hi! dabo!" Thanks for the input dabo! I kind of like "Jake the snake" he seems like a nice man and I wouldn't be upset if he won! Helen bothers me for some reason? Jan just seems "out of it" most of the time, but maybe that is the editing? It seems to me watching the recap or recrap show that Clay was in most of the scenes!! I don't know why this is? Either it is pointing to a boot tonight, or he may be the winner?? It just seems that they have showed an awful lot of Clay lately. I guess after tonight we will know more - depending on who gets the boot!! Thanks again!   Top

fivestarwheezy 958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-05-02, 01:08 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Oh, Lord, I hope so! I love Clay! I think a lot of his 'dirty old man' appearance is just MB editing. I think this guy is hilarious and WAY smarter than he appears. His fast victory over Ken in the Immunity challenge proved this, and he seems to be very well liked by all. He is quick witted and is playing the game well. I think he will take it all. He was my pick from before the game started, just from reading his CBS bio. "If opportunity doesn't knock...build a door." --Milton Berle Wheeeeeez   Top

bubbastan 625 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 12-05-02, 02:32 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Hey FiveStar! I'm glad to see someone else is not afraid to stand up and be counted as a Clay fan. For a long time, I thought I was all alone. I too think that he is playing this game very well, and his approach is even craftier than Brian's. If he makes it to the finals, his bonding approach to the former Sookies will pay off for him. I just wish he didn't alienate Jake--that may come back to haunt him!   Top

fivestarwheezy 958 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Fitness Correspondent" 12-05-02, 05:55 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Hey Bub, There are a few of us out there! Never give up! One thing Clay has going for him is his twangy accent. He sounds like an idiot when he talks, and that hides the true brilliance of the guy. You're right about the Jake thing...Clay does have a fault--he needs to shut up a little when somebody does something he doesn't like (i.e. Jan and the tree mail money episode). I am afraid of what Clay will say to Jake tonight. "If opportunity doesn't knock...build a door." --Milton Berle Wheeeeeez   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-05-02, 04:08 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Let's not forget that one's final TC presentation can make a difference (witness Neleh losing John's vote in S4, and the $1,000,000 as a result). Brian should be able to maintain his composure and tell everyone what they want to hear, while Clay is more likely to get testy when responding to jurors' questions, IMO. This could cost Clay the game, if anyone is ambivalent about which one to vote for going in.   Top

tahitigal 10 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-06-02, 01:12 PM (EST) 14. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" Assuming TDT's final 2 of Brian and Clay is correct, and after watching last nights episode; I think Clay would only get votes from Penny and maybe Erin and Ken? I think the rest of the votes would go to Brian. Of course, if Helen or Ted feels betrayed by Brian they may change their vote, but I can't see Helen voting for Clay - no matter what happens!! It will be interesting to see how "Brians Plan" works!!   Top

Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-06-02, 01:31 PM (EST) 15. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" I said this in another post, but (again, believing the TDT spoiler) I really think Ken voted for Brian to win, and that is why he was miffed to see Brian making fun of him on TV. Maybe Clay will get votes from Penny and Erin. Maybe. I think Helen (accidentally) helped Brian start to realize last night that Clay is a sure bet for him to win against.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-12-02, 09:27 AM (EST) 21. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" >I think Helen (accidentally) helped Brian >start to realize last night >that Clay is a sure >bet for him to >win against. Maybe Helen did lead Brian to think that Clay would be the perfect one to take to the final two, but how does Brian get around the fact that he has to win over Helen and Ted (his other two game buddies) in order to get their votes for him to win? According to Jake, Brian is a smooth talker, so Brian might believe he can pull it off regardless of who he faces off with in the F2. My analysis: Jan is liked by everyone, so Brian wouldn't want to be in the F2 with her. Helen is a good player, and good players are prime targets for elimination by other good players. Ted was the most eloquent speaker in the early stages of the game, but since has been downplaying his intelligence so that he may not be perceived as a threat in that regard. (Review your tapes of ep 1, Ted was the most eloquent speaker of all the contestants back then.) But do Brian and/or Clay have evidence of that? "If all machines were to be annihilated at one moment, so that not a knife nor lever nor rag of clothing nor anything whatsoever were left to man but his bare body alone that he was born with, and if all knowledge of mechanical laws were taken from him so that he could make no more machines, and all machine-made food destroyed so that the race of man should be left as it were naked upon a desert island, we should become extinct in six weeks." (Samuel Butler, "Erewhon")   Top

SurvivaBear 2634 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 12-06-02, 04:31 PM (EST) 16. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" LAST EDITED ON 12-06-02 AT 04:53 PM (EST) I am going out on a limb (somewhat) and predict that Clay wins it all due to editing in the first few episodes. If I am right I will look like a spoiling genius and if I am wrong, well it won't affect my standing anyway. I have been holding on to Clay's comment about people being suprised by his performance and Brian's comment regarding "don't judge a book by its cover". These two comments could refer to Clay finishing second, but I think it would be just like EPMB to edit in these portent statements. We have seen suprise endings in the past, where someone in the final two basically gives the title to the other person. Perhaps, Brian makes some boneheaded move that alienates enough of the jury to give Clay a majority. Edited to say: Besides if all of the SJs hate Clay so much, why was he invited to Penny's wedding and considered one of Erin's friends. Beware the Bear! An IceCat Original, © 2002   Top

chlim01 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-07-02, 04:04 AM (EST) 17. "Penny's vote" From Jake's CBS chat: Q: Did you ever confront Penny about when she betrayed your alliance? A: I didn't have to confront Penny about it. Penny confronted me and told me what happened. She felt terrible about it, she felt terrible that she believed Clay over me. Clay was playing the game extremely well and he was telling her that I was saying bad things about her to him and to other members of his tribe which was a TOTAL lie. But Penny didn't know what to believe and she is one heck of a competitor and certainly wanted to win the game. Would Clay still have Penny's vote?   Top

frisky 11695 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-09-02, 03:01 PM (EST) 18. "RE: Penny's vote" Clay could very possibly get Penny's AND Jake's vote. Notice how Jake prefaced his story with: "Clay was playing the game extremely well..." He is qualifying Clay's behaviour as that of someone who is a good game-player. If he and/or Penny cast "respect" votes based on the best game-player, Clay may get their votes. If they cast a "spite" vote, Clay probably won't get their votes. I'm too lazy to look up all the castaways that end up voting for the person who had a hand in their downfall. I know Jerri voted for Tina even after what Tina did to Bitchell, but that was really just Jerri voting against Colby.   Top

ringtheory 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson" 12-10-02, 06:23 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Does Clay have a chance of winning?" I think it's entirely possible that all of SJ will vote for Clay if it's Clay v. Brian at F2. It looks as though Jake doesn't like either one of them, but Jake still perceives himself as the leader of SJ-as does Penny, Ken, and Erin. It seems as though they would want to vote as a unified bloc, and it's hard to see the cop voting for Brian, the porn star. If true, well, that's four votes, enough for a Clay win. As for old CG, I guess Helen, Ted, and to a lesser extent, Jan, will vote for the person they feel didn't back stab them, relatively speaking. Probably 5-2 Clay, and I'm not kidding....   Top

chlim01 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 12-10-02, 09:06 AM (EST) 20. "Jake on Brian" From his CBS chat: Q: Jake, were you surprised at Brian's comments when he was at the voting booth? A: *laughs* Nothing about Brian surprised me very much. I really like Brian very much, but when he makes a comment, it's sort of like a politician. He can make a comment that goes in a circle. It never says anything but he makes you think he said something! So, I hear the comment but I never knew what it meant! *laughs* Typical Brian. Would Brain score Jake's vote?   Top

AresMars 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-12-02, 10:02 AM (EST) 22. "Not so sure" One thing I noted during the last TC is that when Clay was responding to a question from ProbeBoy the SJ's began rolling thier eyes and giving each looks that in my opinion don't bode well for the AssMan. God Bless America There are two types of people, predators and prey, and the sound you hear is the sharpening of my claws.   Top

Spidey 6259 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 12-12-02, 10:55 AM (EST) 23. "RE: Not so sure" Penny rolled her eyes at one of Brian's comments too. I think the SJ votes could go either way and actually think they may split. Penny is more likely to vote on personal feelings and Erin will likely go along with her. Would they vote for Clay because he was nicer to them or Brian because Clay lied to them (to Penny anyway)? Tough call. But Jake and Ken, IMO, are more likely to vote on game playing. Since both Brian and Clay have played smart games, they could also go either way. And I think Jake is way more likely to vote Brian than Clay, but I could be off on that. If Brian can pull off ousting Helen and Ted without incurring their ire, they are SURE votes for him. He would then only need Jan and ONE SJ or two SJs w/out Jan, if she voted for Assman. Although Penny/Erin, and Jake and/or Ken MAY vote for Clay (as might Jan), there don't seem to be any SURE votes for him. An IceCat Original, 2002   Top

SurvivaBear 2634 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson" 12-12-02, 11:44 AM (EST) 24. "Nothing is for sure" I don't care what others say, I think a Brian/Clay final two would be great. It would hearken back to the original series- suspenseful to the end with two "villains" in the final two. Will someone reprise Susan's snake vs. rat speech? I know, I know this belongs on Fanatics. I am just excited! Beware the Bear! An IceCat Original, © 2002   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-12-02, 10:52 PM (EST) 25. "The Porno King takes it all and a few punches too" I can't see him winning. After a season of misdirection last time and an unlikely winner perhaps this time we get a winner who makes sense. It has been Brian's game to lose all along. And if $$ keeps away domestic abuse then you haven't looked at pro sports lately ala Jason Kidd et al. If the final 3 are Brian, Clay, and Helen then Brian opts out of the finals as per Richard Hatch and then Clay can win and choose Brian. Whoever wins the final endurance segment doesn't seem to win the $$. Clay is being edited like Neleh and her breath mint.   Top

steppingrazor42 283 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 12-14-02, 01:54 PM (EST) 26. "Yes!" I am thinking more and more that it is Clay, Brian (mini-me Dique Hatch) is so predictable as the winner, his editing has become him just spouting off his master plans, wouldn't it be too damn obvious of a win now??? It's up to the Sookies who wins anyway, it all depends what they'll base their votes on. They could be amazed Clay got this far with his lazy-ass attitude, or they could give credit to Brian for his little 32 day puppet show. It depends how bitter everyone is. I think Clay definitely has a chance...just as much as Brian   Top

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