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"Pre-swap Rotu predicts merge Rotu loyalty?"
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big idiot 193 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"

04-10-02, 11:01 AM (EST)
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"Pre-swap Rotu predicts merge Rotu loyalty?"
In a thread posted on 3-23-02 and titled, "Rotu alliances revealed in Ep 4?" I analyzed all the potential Rotu alliances, friendships and pecking orders before they were separated into two tribes. This data may be helpful in predicting what will happen when they come back together.

Here is an excerpt from the 3-23-02 posting:
------------------------------------------------
"Overview:
The three strongest leaders are Gabe, John and Tammy. Gabe and John do not get along well, but Tammy gets along well with both. Gabe is respected for his strength but if his leadership decisions clash with John's and the tribe agrees with John, Gabe may lose all tribe support. John is not in this danger as much because he has developed better friendships with the rest of the tribe.

Summary:
Rotu1.0 has 2 Kings (Gabe and John) and 1 Queen (Tammy). If the Kings clash, Tammy will reign with the victor. John has more supporters so watch for rulership to shift to him and Tammy.

Pecking Order:
Leaders with possible closest friends:

John: Tammy, Robert, Zoe, Paschal, Neleh
Tammy: John, Gabe, Zoe
Gabe: Tammy, Paschal

Second Command with closest friends:
Zoe: John, Robert, Paschal, Neleh (Gabe and Tammy?)

Third Tier:
Robert: Zoe, John, Kathy
Paschal: Neleh, Zoe, John, Kathy, Gabe

Fourth Tier:
Neleh: Paschal, John,
Kathy: Paschal"

------------------------------------------------------------

Info on Gabe is now not important, but the remaining info may be helpful.

What may happen in Ep7?

The ep4 analysis gives one strong piece of information: Paschal and Neleh will NOT go before Rob, Sean, Vee and Kathy.

John, Zoe, Robert or Tammy (JoZoRoTa) may realize that Rob may inform Kathy, Paschal and Neleh of the "agreement". JoZoRoTa will pre-inform Paschel and Neleh of what is going on (because of the close friendships that were revealed in ep4), JoZoRoTa will tell them that they WANT Kathy to believe that she is getting voted out next, so Rob thinks that the agreement is getting upheld.

JoZoRoTa will tell Kathy that she is not getting voted out (true), but they want her to perceive it as a lie (hence, "True Lies"). They want Kathy to go to Rob and attempt an alliance.

They want Kathy's behavior to indicate to Rob that the agreement is being upheld. Paschal and Neleh, remaining true to the original Rotu, will report to John if Rob or Kathy tries to recruit them. Pasch and Neleh may even feign an alliance with Rob and the gang. John wants Rob to break the agreement first so that he can vote him out without being the one to break the agreement.

Of course, Rob tries to recruit, so out he goes.

What if Rob wins immunity? Do they target Sean or Kathy?
Sean may be more difficult to defeat in future challenges, but Kathy is not that well liked and may be less predictable as a jury voter. Unsure. But if Kathy does go, Neleh and Paschal will NOT be next, original Rotu friendships are too deep.


__________________________________________________
Below: original post from 3-23-02
__________________________________________________

Problem: We have not seen blatant Rotu1.0 alliances and solid friendships (except Neleh and Pachal).

Purpose of thread: to present info on the possible friendships in Rotu and to allow subsequent posters to reply on where the alliances are and/or where the alliances will be.

Spoiler value:
Presently, little. If Mara1.0 members all get booted in next episodes, Rotu1.0 alliance info may get moreso edited so it becomes difficult to determine outcome of merge when Rotu1.0 must turn on each other.
So value may not exist until those conditions and at that timepoint (i.e. total Rotu1.0 merge)

Hypothesis:
Episode 4 was crucial for info on Rotu1.0 alliances because:
1) By this time, alliances may be mostly set
2) Tribes were mixed so last chance to see all Rotu1.0 interact together
3) As storyline shifts onto the individuals of Rotu1.0, alliance info may get edited out

Methods:
All group interactions were analyzed for individual interactions, e.g.; touching, waving, eye-contact, body language, smirks, smiles and basic friendly gestures. A differentiation was attempted between positive and negative interactions. An attempt was made to ignore obligatory, random and accidental interactions. Example of ignored situation: who stood next to who on wooden discs during swap, people appeared to look at a disc and b-line to it, or just take the closest, or just take what was left - they seemed to understand the random nature of the situation.

Results:

Neleh and Paschal and Kathy(N+P+K):
Rotu1.0 members that are at Mara2.0 camp

Lets address this Rotu1.0 triad first and separately to help predict what happens over at Mara2.0 camp

Overview:
We've heard the quote and seen some love between N+P, is this MB misdirection? No, but they are not co-dependent, and I believe that Paschal is more independent (better networked) of Neleh than vice versa. In Rotu1.0 they do not always walk together or stand together in groups, but data below supports they are close. The three are not as tight as N+P of course, but I think there is a friendship between Kathy and Paschal that is not there for Kathy and Neleh. Also, the K+P friendship is stronger from Kathy's side. I think Neleh dislikes Kathy and Paschal tolerates Kathy.

Summary:
Paschal leads the pecking order and is liked by both.

Data:

Update vids from Ep3:
shows everyone working on raft together but Kathy and Pasch are missing, perhaps off doing a task together.

Pre-swap:
Kathy walks over to Paschal at Rotu1.0 camp and hugs him, P is mildly receptive

Swap:
When Pasc went to Mara2.0 mat, Neleh stepped forward to hug him, Pasc then hugged Gina and Kathy but then went back to Neleh to stand next to her rather than Kathy on the other side.

Mara2.0 camp:
N+P stand next to each other while eating fruit, Gina quote, "Kathy gets on N+P's nerves, she is aggressive they are passive",

IC:
N+P walk in next to each other, N+P stand next to each other on mat and also have the closest physical proximity compared to anyone else on mat. N+P stand next to each other during the challenge, N+P standing next to each other at end of challenge while Jeff yaps

TC:
N+P sit next to each other.

Mara2.0 camp/IC/TC:
P is not shown directly next to Kathy in any of these situations, although there was a negative quote from Neleh on Kathy there was not one from P on Kathy.

-------------------------------------------------------------

All Rotu1.0 members
This includes the 3 ex-members (N+P+K) to help predict what happens at the merge

Overview:
The three strongest leaders are Gabe, John and Tammy. Gabe and John do not get along well, but Tammy gets along well with both. Gabe is respected for his strength but if his leadership decisions clash with John's and the tribe agrees with John, Gabe may lose all tribe support. John is not in this danger as much because he has developed better friendships with the rest of the tribe.

Summary:
Rotu1.0 has 2 Kings (Gabe and John) and 1 Queen (Tammy). If the Kings clash, Tammy will reign with the victor. John has more supporters so watch for rulership to shift to him and Tammy.

Pecking Order:
Leaders with possible closest friends:
John: Tammy, Robert, Zoe, Paschal, Neleh
Tammy: John, Gabe, Zoe
Gabe: Tammy, Paschal
Second Command with closest friends:
Zoe: John, Robert, Paschal, Neleh (Gabe and Tammy?)
Third Tier:
Robert: Zoe, John, Kathy
Paschal: Neleh, Zoe, John, Kathy, Gabe
Fourth Tier:
Neleh: Paschal, John,
Kathy: Paschal

Data:

Episode 3 update:
Tammy and Zoe working together, Zoe holding Robert's hand while John tends foot

Rotu1.0 camp:
John braiding Neleh's hair (Robert sitting nearby), Kathy hugs Paschal, Paschal approaches Gabe in water, John and Tammy talking together, Gabe approaches and touches both John and Tammy but gets apathetic reception and keeps walking, robert and John working together.

Swap entrance and stances:

Walk-in order (first to last):
Neleh, John, Gabe, Robert, Tammy, Paschal, Kathy, Zoe

Mat order (left to right):
Kathy, Robert, John, Gabe, Neleh, Tammy, Pasch, Zoe

Mat dynamics:
Although John and Gabe are next to each other, they are not interactive

Walking off mats to discs:
Jeff says "Go" to leave mat, 3 groups are distinct:
Group 1:
Gabe, Neleh, Tammy are first 3 to step off, and step off in unison, Gabe then stops while Neleh and Tammy b-line for discs.
Group 2:
Pasch and Zoe hesitate together before leaving mat, Zoe steps off first with Paschal immediately following
Group 3:
Kathy, Robert, John hesitate together. John steps off first, Robert follows, then Kathy.
Gabe: Throughout whole swap and disc fun, Gabe appears to be in his own little world, with others paying little attention to him when he hesitates to step on a disc, then stares down at it, then stares into the sky, then squats on his disc.

Walking from discs to mats :
When Gabe is only one standing on Rotu2.0 mat with Zoe, they are not touching, As Neleh goes to Mara2.0 mat, she gives sad wave to Gabe and Zoe. Neleh later makes remark at TC that she was bummed when she saw 2 of Rotu's strongest members on the mat when she went to her mat. When John goes to Rotu2.0 mat he chooses to stand next to Gabe over Zoe (perhaps to challenge Gabe's power? - I think this is a common thing with John - standing next to Gabe as a power struggle - not as a sign of friendship). No observances on how Robert joined bunch, but he ends up standing next to John. When Tammy walks over, John gives her a very friendly tease-face, tammy steps by Gabe and Zoe to hug the new Rotus (Rob and Sean) and then gives Gabe and Zoe a mild hug. Zoe gives wink and blows kiss to Paschal as he walks over to Mara2.0 mat. When all is done, Neleh is crying.

Walking off mats to leave area:
Zoe lingers to wave to Paschal and Neleh. John steps around the back of the whole group to wave bye to Paschal. Zoe and John gave precedence to their goodbyes over hugging their new group members which the other Rotus where doing.

Returning to Rotu2.0 camp:
Front pack: Tammy, Gabe, Vee, Rob, Sean
Back pack (out-of-earshot-far): Robert, John, Zoe
Robert and John shown fruit picking, Gabe and Tammy next to each other at fire.

Immunity Challenge:

Walk in (front to back):
Gabe, Tammy, Zoe (unsure of rest) but then camera angle changes and it is Gabe, Zoe, John (?)

Standing on mats:
Front row: Rob, Sean, Zoe, Tammy, Gabe. Vee is behind Rob and Sean, Robert is behind Sean and Zoe. John is directly behind Gabe and leaning on Gabe. Tammy is leaning on Gabe.

Around puzzle:
Tammy and Gabe on left together, zoe on top, vee on bottom, robert on right

Victory:
Zoe hugs tammy and extends arm in Gabe's direction.

Getting idol:
Vee holds it up, and Gabe and Tammy are only one to reach up and touch it.

******************************


BI

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 N/P/K/Z???? sorgee 04-10-02 1
   RE: N/P/K/Z???? VanQ 04-10-02 2
       RE: N/P/K/Z???? Bebo 04-10-02 3

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sorgee 1455 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"

04-10-02, 11:24 AM (EST)
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1. "N/P/K/Z????"
I wonder if Zoe will defect to the other side... Your analysis makes her seem pretty comfortable with Neleh and Paschal.

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::on't do the action if you can't handle the reaction. ~deborah briggs

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VanQ 87 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"

04-10-02, 12:51 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: N/P/K/Z????"
I think what will happen is N/P and possibly K will come back to old rotu, NOT Zoe coming to them. Zoe will stick to her alliance.
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Bebo 21074 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"

04-10-02, 01:00 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: N/P/K/Z????"
>Zoe will stick to her alliance.

But is it really Zoe's alliance?

She told Rob that she didn't see herself in the alliance of 4, and some people assume that statement was a lie. But what if it wasn't? There was a connection with the folks who switched to Mu, and she was just trying to stay UTR and make the merge so that she could get back with her original group. Since there was nothing to be gained by allying with the new Rotu, she just stuck with her original tribemates until the merge, when she could then return to her original alliance.

For the first several episodes, Zoe was practically non-existant. Right before the merge, we hear a significant statement from her. She's one player I will be watching closely at the merge (Vee being the other), because I don't think it can easily be predicted on which side their loyalties lie. Certain behavior and alliances were required to make the merge, but now that everyone's back together, Zoe may go back to her original group.

It's no different from Lex, Tom & Ethan staying loyal to each other in S3 despite a switch.

S.O.B.

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