Now that this game is wide-open again it might be important to look at the money factor. In another thread, cyclehausen mentioned Bill's famous quote that "The Mole MUST lose money for the pot. Anyone who doesn't lose money for the team simply can't be the mole." So, who has lost the most money? By my calculations:

Episode 1

On the Line--Waterfall Game

Erik: N/A
Kathy: N/A
Frederique: Lost $10,000

Baa Baa Black Jack

Erik: Won $15,000
Kathy: $0
Frederique: $0 (technically won $15,000 but I think most would agree that Erik did almost all the work here)

Episode 2

Take This Job

Erik: Won $7,000
Kathy: Won $5,000
Frederique: Won $7,000

Six Feet Under

Erik: Lost $25,000
Kathy: $0 (unless she orchestrated the charade with Erik)
Frederique: $0

Episode 3

Offshore Account

Erik: Won $60,000
Kathy: $0
Frederique: $0

Hot Pepper: Lookie-Lookie

Erik: Won $10,000
Kathy: Won $10,000
Frederique: Lost $15,000

Episode 4

Hula and Surfing

Erik: Lost $10,000
Kathy: Lost $20,000
Frederique: $0

Exemption Game: Find Erik

Erik: Sacrificed $20,000 for exemption
Kathy: $0
Frederique: $0

Grand Totals (So Far)

Erik: Cumulative Individual Gain of $37,000
Kathy: Cumulative Individual Loss of $5000 ($30,000 if Six Feet Under is included)
Frederique: Cumulative Individual Loss of $18,000

Analysis

If Erik is the mole, he's doing a horrible job of taking money out of the pot. So far, he's decided to go for a vital exemption rather than $20,000 (not suspect), could not complete the surfing challenge (somewhat suspect), and convinced the group to open the coffin in Six Feet Under (just bizarre). His two molish acts are offset by the unnecessary gains he made in other challenges: Baa Baa Black Jack, and particularly Offshore Account. Offshore Account is probably the biggest strike against Erik: no one would have blamed Erik for taking the exemption, yet he singlehandedly won 1/3 of the current total pot in that one move.

Kathy is a bit of an enigma. She has been absolutely anemic during challenges, but really didn't do any large-scale sabotage until the surfing game in Episode 4. Unless you are a conspiracy-theorist who thinks that Kathy talked Erik into the stunt at the Six Feet Under challenge, that's not much sabotage to go on. On the other hand, she really hasn't won anything big either.

Frederique has lost the most money of the three remaining players. I think the times that she has lost the money is pretty interesting too. When the group was self-destructing (Episode 2, Episode 4), Frederique was fairly quiet. But, when the group was on a roll (Episode 1, Episode 3), Frederique has done her largest damage (On the Line, Lookie Lookie). She has been soaking money from the pot in a very quiet way.

I'm currently leaning towards Frederique, although I can see how someone could make a convincing case for Kathy. I'll be perplexed and sorely disappointed if Erik ends up being the mole.

FFantasyFX
FrederiqueFOMO