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"Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking"
Aruba 2647 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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10-19-17, 08:52 PM (EST)
 
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"Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
Outstanding episode to follow the lackluster one from last week. We’re back to two challenges per episode...the way Survivor oughta be. Let the games begin!!1) RYAN – New tribe; same solid gameplay. The axle keeps the wheel a-turnin’. Splendid bonding session with Chrissy. As if the NJ connection was not enough, he threw in his act of generosity for good measure. Chrissy can bring Ben to the table that already has place settings for Ali, Devon, and Lauren. Well done young man. Momma would be proud; actually Momma Chrissy IS proud. 2) LAUREN – She follows up a good episode with another good episode. While Ben was lamenting over his position on the new tribe as the lone Hero, Lauren took the “glass half full” approach as the lone Hustler. She took the information Dumbo Cole provided and played it perfectly. Should the Red Tribe be at risk before merge, Ben probably gets Anti-Darwined before a target is placed on Lauren. 3) CHRISSY – I wanted to drop her for her silly theatrics. Please stop with the phony facial expressions and fake mannerisms of shock and surprise. When you get past the ridiculous embellishment, you still have a good player. She has a bond with Ryan (who comes with Ali) that will not only cement her place on the new Yellow Tribe, but should bring her to the end. It also helps to still have the 200 lbs. of soft clay (JP) from her Healer tribe who can be easily molded. 4) DEVON – I thought “Lenny” would be lost without “George.” On the contrary—Devon proved to do quite well for himself. Being the middleman between two pairs could present a built-in advantage...although with Roarke we could see being in the middle between two pairs may not end up all that well. The key is not to overplay your hand—and Devon has played it very well allowing the forces to come to him. His feeling of distraught was understandable the moment he realized at TC the “advantage” was not really an advantage. But after further contemplation, it served him well to not have to officially show his hand, allow the voting pairs to offset their votes, and have the HII send Alan home. 5) ALI – A rather pedestrian episode for our “Hustler Honey.” I guess the “hubcap” may have temporarily popped off Michel’s Survivor “wheel.” LOL. Not to worry. With the Ryan/Chrissy bond solidified, Ali’s not going anywhere. Come merge, with the synergy of Ryan’s and Chrissy’s alliances, a dominant core could potentially control the game. Ali has the smarts and savvy to not muck it up, so I stand by my assessment last week that we should see her at the end. 6) DESI – She had reason to be excited over her new tribe and sense physical dominance. Alas, Pretty One...the sad digression of the game does not necessarily reward athletic prowess. Especially with Production’s fixation over puzzles, and other competition phases held to chance. Heck, even EP Jeff Probst stated outright the unlocking portion of the IC was not a whole lot more than just good ‘ole fashioned dumbass luck. But it’s always nice to see a beautiful woman get all enthused. 7) BEN – Dropped him for his sour disposition after tribal switch. What’s good is he will continue to show his proactivity in challenges. With the three-tribe format still in effect, the Red Tribe looks solid to not finish last and could glide to the merge. At that point he and Chrissy could reunite and join forces with “what’s-her-name’s” comrades to form a powerful alliance. 8) ASHLEY – Dealt a bad hand having to stay on the Blue Tribe with Alan. The way CBS climaxes over showmances, theorists must wonder how Ashley and JP got separated? In any event, with bigger targets out there she should stay safe for a while. And I’m not getting all jazzed up over the preview misdirection with a potential drawing of the rocks this early in the game. 9) JP – I’ll wedge him in the middle of my list for this week. As the only real physical presence on the new Yellow Tribe, that should ensure his safety until merge. At that point, he’ll probably be systematically Anti-Darwined...or best case for him, Ryan/Chrissy may need the slug around a little while longer as a vote. 10) JESSICA – If you’re thinking about losing your self-proclaimed virginity to Cole—DON’T! You won’t even finish your first cigarette before Dumbo goes off and shares your tryst with 85% of the civilized world. “Disrupting” is fine so long as you can keep the pot-stirring under the lid. Unfortunately, you did not learn your lesson the first time around and the object of your infatuation blabbered it to everyone. When Ryan finds out his “Lenny” was targeted with the block, he won’t be happy. Chrissy/JP won’t be doing cartwheels over the decision putting their former tribemates at risk. She’s not in a good post-merge position. 11) MIKE – He may never see TC until after merge. The last time an insignificant player escaped TC until merge, she went on to win a million. I don’t see the same fate for Dr. Mike. He handled Lauren’s inquisition over Jessica’s “advantage” poorly. If he had an ounce of gameplay, “Doc” would cut “Dopey” & “Bashful” loose and team up with Hero Ben and Hustler Lauren. 12) ROARKE – It appears she’s going to deal with her unfavorable tribal switch situation by attempting to form an all-girl alliance. Silly girl, it works when Production force feeds that concept by starting the season with a gender separation. Her chances of selling the idea to Chrissy and Ali are about the same chances she would have to escape a boot should the tribe have a date with TC. 13) COLE – As, quite arguably, the dumbest castaway to ever play the game he should be ranked last—but Sluggo is still in the game. He’s privy to the HII clue from the Healer Tribe; so to not look for the idol at the same place in the new Hustler camp compounds his stupidity. Can you imagine this numbnut trying to make a case for himself at Final TC? Come to think of it, if you’re tuned in this season purely for entertainment reasons, you may want this Simple Simon to stick around to the end. 14) JOE – He deserves the bottom spot just for making Desi cry. Like Cole, thank goodness this bonehead is not searching for another idol in the same place at his new camp. I’m even more thankful this law enforcement officer is not in my jurisdiction. “Spiking the ball” as he did at TC just solidifies what a total douchbag he truly is. Desi...do all of us a favor, Girlfriend—join forces with Devon/Ashley and dump this meathead. BOOTED) ALAN – You have a Nubian Princess fall into your lap compliments of the random draw tribal switch, and you choose to butt heads with Sluggo instead? Geez Louise! Grieving over being victimized by the HII, I can only imagine his dismay when discovering Sluggo actually possessed the Idol out of a scene from “Dumb & Dumber.” On a complimentary note, kudos for exhibiting good sportsmanship on his way out. Sore loser Patrick (who stated he wants to use Survivor to better himself) should take notice.
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michel2 2263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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10-20-17, 09:50 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
Jeff during the challenge: “You must finish how EVERLONG it takes, Otherwise it is a LONG ROAD TO RUIN...” Was he doing a commercial for the Foo Fighters?!1- Chrissy: There’s no reason to put her anywhere but in first place again. Production conveniently gave her two more solid allies so she should continue running the show well beyond the merger. It helps when you get on a new team to contribute in challenges and she did that by guiding her tribe through the puzzle portion of the Immunity Challenge. Is Chrissy inventing the story about Roarke’s designs for an all-female alliance? It’s such a great way of getting JP on board with the two Hustlers that I’m thinking Chrissy is going to fabricate a lie to save her new alliance with Ryan.
2- Jessica: She was the brains behind Yawa’s challenge win so I’m going to give her the benefit of the doubt regarding her decision to give the “badvantage” to Devon. Giving it to one of the Heroes would have protected the Healers like she said she wanted to do but she didn’t do that. Why? If she is indeed smart, then she realized that removing the swing vote, whichever way Devon was leaning, was going to force the idol out of Joe’s pocket. Of course, because of their early success in Immunity Challenges and the connections between Ryan and Chrissy and Ashley and Devon, Jessica and the Healers are doomed but it is fun to watch her play. In three tribes seasons it’s often better to be Matsing than Tandang: You can only have plurality at the merger, not majority so the two minority tribes tend to join together against the tribe that was dumb enough to win all those challenges. 3- Ali: We heard her say that she was ready for the swap so I suppose her actions weren’t shown simply because there was no need for showing them. I suspect that Ali is already in tight with Ryan and Chrissy. That threesome has the potential and the edit of players that go far. 4- Ben: He told us how much he needed Chrissy. At least, it was his toss that gave Yawa the lead in the reward challenge. Cole threw him under the bus to Jessica and Ben isn’t even aware of it! Will he be able to avoid the vote if they go to TC? Maybe they don’t. 5- Devon: He played the swing vote position a hell of a lot better than Big Tom in Pearl Islands! I liked how quickly he saw through Joe’s lies and figured that he had to go with Ashley. Now he’s faced with a 2-2 tie but it should be possible to get Desi to vote against Joe.
6- Joe: Like Alan said, you got to give credit where credit is due and despite helter-skelter tactics, Joe came out on top. We’ve always said that a player should study faces before playing idols and Joe did it as well as anyone we’ve seen. Of course, with Devon’s vote being negated, Joe couldn’t lose: Had he given the idol to Desi then the vote would have been dead-locked 2-2 and if the revote would not have settled anything then rocks would have been used. Since the only two people picking rocks would have been Ashley and Devon, chances are great that Ashley would have caved in on that revote and written Alan’s name. I was surprised that Joe didn’t immediately go to the water well to pick up a second idol but maybe he’ll do it next time. 7- Ashley: I liked how Ashley handled the swap and her bad showing with the keys during the challenge. She didn’t panic but worked on Devon instead, convincing him to join the Heroes.
8- Ryan: He’s lucky that Chrissy didn’t figure out the real reason for his “gift”. It wasn’t for love that he did it, it was by pity: He had seen her puking after that first challenge and thought she’d be the first one to go. Ryan wanted to mess with the Heroes much more than he wanted to play with his “mom” who could still have been the target on their 2nd TC. Ryan is in a great position mostly because the Hustlers were inept in challenges and because Simone and Pat were such horrible players. I’m not impressed with his play up to now. 9- Desi: Playing with someone like Joe is not easy, just ask Trish. I just hope that Desi will not suffer from the Survivor form of the “Stockholm Syndrome” that affected Trish when it came to Tony. It would be smart of her to distance herself from Joe and I’m sure Devon and Ashley would welcome her with open arms. It’s her move to make. 10- Mike: I liked how calmly he took Lauren’s news and then informed Jessica that there was a leak in their alliance. Lauren and Ben still need him and he should realize that distancing himself from the Healers could be very rewarding down the line. 11 - JP: He has done very little in the game but he gave me the biggest laugh of the episode when he threw Roarke over the obstacle in the Reward Challenge! It reminded me of Colby tossing Jerri in the Outback! The swap forces him to work with Chrissy which should help him a lot.
12- Lauren: For those who think Lauren handled herself well in the Hustlers tribe, I want to point out that she only handled herself better than Simone and Pat, not exactly Survivor savants! By assuming Jessica hadn’t told Dr. Mike about her advantage, she messed up the situation badly and she is very lucky that Ben may feel most of the heat. It would have been simple to work Dr. Mike on another angle: Mike wasn’t as tight with the other Healers as they were to each other and he was closer in age to Lauren and Ben. That’s how Lauren should have reeled him in. Instead of making it simple, she went for the complicated.
13- Roarke: She should know that two pairs don’t want to go to TC facing each other so she should have played the swing vote angle from the start. Instead, she just sat there, waiting for others to align.
14- Cole: He is quickly working his way to the top of a very big list, the one about the “Dumbest Players ever”. He’s lucky that Jessica didn’t see through his lie about telling only Ben. Booted - Alan: All these idols and twists mess up the game for too many players. Alan may not have started the game very well but he managed the swap fairly well, making up nicely with Ashley. I think he should have tried to get Desi away from Joe but the idol would still have ruined that effort.
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Aruba 2647 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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10-22-17, 09:27 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
I too picked up on Chrissy’s delusional notion of being “loved.” I laughed when I saw/heard it in the episode and I was actually going to use it as another reason for dropping Chrissy a little bit this week. Whereas I believe Ryan’s primary motive to giving Chrissy the advantage was more to set the Anti-Darwin Syndrome in motion than just sheer pity, we both agree his primary objective was NOT “love.” Although the player you ranked #8 used his “I hope you appreciated my gift” angle to bait the hook, and your #1 bit down HARD on the bait.Ryan was also in great position on the Hustler tribe by using his advantage to reel in Devon. That savvy play had nothing to do with Simone and Patrick being subpar players. As a result of NOT learning her lesson with Dumbo Cole, there’s no way I could consider putting Jessica up near the top. I’ll give her the benefit of the doubt as well for passing on the advantage to Devon; but knowing she had to pass the advantage to the losing tribe, you say nothing to NOBODY until AFTER the IC. Had they lost the IC and had a date with TC, then I wouldn’t be so tough on her for sharing the advantage. With TWO tribes not going to TC, there would have been no way Devon or anyone would have known Jessica got the advantage in her chip bag. Even in hindsight, that’s not a difficult concept to figure out.
With the bloody three-tribe format still in effect, you do not have to win the IC...just not lose it. Bottom line—Blue’s inability to solve puzzles borders between pitiful and pathetic. You could have put a blindfold and muzzle on Jessica and Blue STILL would lose that IC. Granted, Lauren did not have to handle herself better than Ryan, Devon, and Ali; but she could have done a lot worse for herself while on the original Hustler tribe. And I disagree with your proposed option of working Dr. Mike on another angle. Us viewers were able to see for three episodes how Dr. Mike was out of the loop with the Healers. But, (to borrow one of Kingfish’s metaphors) she did not have a Survivor “crystal ball” to know that right after the tribal swap. If Ben and Lauren knew about Jessica’s advantage, Lauren had to be 99% sure Mike knew as well. By approaching Mike, she not only shook things up, but was able to see if he would come clean or lie about not knowing it. That’s why I believe Mike did not play it well because Lauren was able to see right through Mike’s fake shocked reaction. He then compounded that bad play by immediately running to Jessica/Cole (with Lauren and Ben looking on) to inform them what Lauren said. The Survivor “Stockholm Syndrome” affected Natalie White to the tune of $1 million when it came to Russell Hantz. Not too shabby of an effect. You (and Alan) want to give Joe credit; but I won’t. Using the Idol on himself was a no-brainer for Sluggo. And like you said, regardless how he used the Idol, he wasn’t going anywhere. As gutsy as this would have been, I would have really given him credit had he NOT used the Idol knowing Devon could not vote. I agree that Ashley would have probably caved in and Alan goes home anyway, yet Joe still retains his idol. You’re really surprised Sluggo didn’t go to the well to look for another idol? Are you just as “surprised” Cole didn’t do the same at his new camp?? As Forrest Gump’s Mama said, “Stupid is as Stupid does”...or in these cases as Stupid didn’t do. You also say Alan “managed the swap fairly well?” IMHO engaging in a heated shouting match argument with a muttonhead like Sluggo is not my idea of managing the swap well.
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michel2 2263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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10-22-17, 01:43 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
Chrissy's perception of Ryan's motive is immaterial for now. If, later on, she makes a $900 000 mistake by keeping him in the game, then I'll agree but, from what we've seen, Chrissy is much more liked than Ryan. HE'd be making the mistake of keeping her. And what Ryan said was also immaterial because never was an alliance so nicely fixed in advance by production. Ryan saw that advantage fall on his lap when he was actually looking for bananas! Then, it wasn't his decision to give it away because he HAD to give it away. I think EVERYONE in that position would have given it to Chrissy. As for his play with Devon, Ryan was lucky that the surfer dude reacted positively. He could have easily turned that knowledge against the bellhop and got him voted out first. We could easily have been talking about Ryan not knowing when to shut up instead of Cole. Jessica knew that Dr. Mike was a free electron so telling him about her advantage was a great way to solidify the Healers. It worked very nicely. I don't blame Jessica for Cole's stupidity because that level of ignorance is unfathomable. My problem with the 3 tribe format is that the truly successful tribe becomes an easy target after a swap or a merger. You should agree with me on that but you simply like to disagree. Come on, Lauren didn't need a crystal ball to see that Cole and Jessica were extremely close while Mike was left alone. That was an easy angle to exploit but she made it very complicated instead and it failed. What Mike did afterwards and whether Lauren is aware of it or not is immaterial because, no matter what, it is still 3 votes against 2. Natalie White didn't suffer from the Stockholm Syndrome: She clearly knew that Russell was hated so she hitched her ride to him to win that million. And she had also gotten close to Laura just in case the jerk's luck ran out. Trish continually made apologies for Tony, saving his ass on numerous occasions and never looked for another option. That is part of the reason I say Tony is the luckiest winner ever. I think you're missing something when you say Joe could have retained his idol. He HAD to play it and playing it on Desi would have kept them both safe in case of a rock draw. He NEVER could have kept it because then he would have had to rely on Desi not caving in on the game of chicken with Ashley. The idol would have given Desi safety so she would have had no reason to change her vote. As for the second idol, we don't know what really happened, do we? Cole and Joe may already have them but production has often been ridiculed for making it easy. They wouldn't show those two getting the idol so quickly. Or maybe they've learned and the idol isn't in the same place. Alan had a huge problem with the swap: Ashley didn't trust or like him. He repaired that fracture quite nicely and then he and Ashley got Devon on their side. That was "fairly well" handled and only an idol screwed his handy work. The argument was all Joe's doing and it was part of his tactic.
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Aruba 2647 desperate attention whore postings
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10-23-17, 08:20 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
As I stated before, the reason I prefer the two-tribe format is the cut-and-dry approach of the winner stays safe, the loser goes to TC as opposed to runners-up getting a pass as well. You make a good point that you may have animosity toward a dominant tribe from the other tribes not as successful prior to tribal switch. Although several seasons show it did not hurt the eventual winner.In the first Brain, Brawn, Beauty format, the Brawn tribe performed the best early on, yet both finalists emerged from that initial Brawn tribe with Tony winning it all. In White Collar, Blue Collar, Red Collar—the Blue Collar tribe showed early dominance and Blue Collar Mike emerged victorious in a deserving and satisfying win. The second Brain, Brawn, Beauty season saw the Beauty tribe step up early on. They only lost Caleb prior to the tribal switch and that was due to a medivac. In the end two of the three finalists came from that Beauty tribe along with the Sole Survivor. It was not “luck.” Ryan smartly shared his advantage with ONLY Devon to earn his individual trust. Now had he pulled a “Cole” and blabbered it to his other tribe mates after assuring Devon it was their secret, I’m sure the repercussion would have been unfavorable for Ryan. Although the difference here is Ryan used the advantage as the basis for their bond. The basis of the Jessica/Cole bond was hormones; not Jessica’s advantage nor Cole’s knowledge of Joe possessing the HII. And since Cole already proved himself to be a blabbermouth, I stick with my assessment if your advantage is a use it or give it up after the next IC, YOU WANT TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER THE IC before you consider sharing...even with some dumb dude you’re all horny over. Any idiot could see the closeness between Jessica/Cole is a case of a couple of horny toads infatuated with each other; not a result of isolating Mike. Lauren is no idiot, so she played it well realizing the three Healers would stick together, and felt out Mike based on what his reaction would be. I was hoping when Mike realized the info was shared to all, he would have used that opportunity to bond with Lauren/Ben and target the showmancers. But Mike went with the lame safe easy option to stay three strong going into the merge. I agree during the Samoa season it was apparent Hantz was no social butterfly just as the Cagayan season where Tony rubbed many the wrong way. The main difference between Natalie and Trish—Natalie was an attractive Southern Belle and Trish was not. And Tony’s Jury was comprised of less sore-losing Bitter Bettys. Joe did not HAVE to play the idol. He could have retained it, still escaped the boot, and kept it for a future TC. That future TC could be post-merge. I knew it would have been a bit more riskier, but that’s why I would have given Sluggo credit for making a riskier move to reap a better return than the safe out he ultimately took. It is possible the idols may be hidden in different locations, but I’m not buying either (or both) may have found another idol and Production is just not showing us. As a viewer I would actually prefer we do not see the find and see the idol for the first time when it is played at TC, but Production simply does not do that. If it turns out that’s what they will do with Sluggo and Cole, then I’ll give Production props and stand corrected. To suggest Alan and Ashley burying the hatchet was a result of Alan’s “handiwork” is so laughable. They stayed together out of necessity when randomly placed on a tribe with a 2-2-1 split. And yes, I agree the blow-up was Sluggo’s doing; so I stick with my assessment of shame on Alan for stooping down to his level. NOT an example of playing the post tribal switch “fairly well.” Ryan’s walk with Chrissy to bring up his gifting of the advantage was calculating and preconceived on his part. It was vintage Survivor. And I disagree ANYONE would have given the advantage to Chrissy. I doubt Sluggo or Alan would have given Chrissy the advantage. As for your quote, “never was an alliance so nicely fixed in advance by Production,” I reply with another quote: ”PAUL IS A DEAD MAN, MISS HIM, MISS HIM” LOL!
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michel2 2263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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10-23-17, 10:02 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-23-17 AT 10:08 PM (EST)In Philippines, Tandang dominated pre-merge but 3 of the first 4 post merger boots were Tandang. Matsing had lost every challenge so they were considered non-threats. They had two players at the merger and both made the F4 with Denise winning. Cagayan isn't a good example because all three tribes were fairly even at the merger. Yes, Aparri dominated early on but they lost a couple of mebers before the merger. Anyway, the whole season was decided by Kass' absolutely moronic flip. Worlds Apart isn't a good example either because the post-merger was dominated by the cross-tribal alliance that we saw Rodney assembling (even if it was really Kelly who brought them all together) Mike won but not without being heavily targeted. In the second BvsBvsB the Gondol beauty tribe had done very well before the merger but the post merger was dominated by the men of the Brawn To Tang tribe first and then flipped by an alliance of Aubry and Cydney, neither of which were in the Beauty tribe. Yes Michelle won but that was by fluke. Targeting the dominant tribe isn't a general rule but it certainly would be a smart and easy way to get to the end for tribes that lost many members before the merger. In fact, that's the only reason Survivor likes that format. Sharing his information about the advantage with only ONE person could have been fatal for Ryan. He BARELY knew Devon at that point so he couldn't know what reaction he'd get. Lauren was sure Mike didn't know about Jessica's advantage so she tried to work that angle. The problem was that Jessica had smartly told Mike about it so Lauren FAILED. She should have simply worked the social angle, first getting to know Mike, becoming friends with him and THEN pulling him over. She tried pulling him over on Day 1, well before it was necessary since they weren't going to TC. The main difference between Natalie and Trish is that Natalie made it to the F3 while Trish got backstabbed by her jerk. I dare say that, if Trish had been sitting next to Tony at FTC, SHE would have been the more deserving Sole Survivor. No, Joe simply couldn't trust that Desi would risk picking the wrong rock to save him. Many players have left the game with an idol in their pocket and those are considered the dumbest players ever. I'm not surprised it is your prefered tactic... Ashley, like some others before her, could have thrown Alan under the bus to save herself. She stayed loyal to him so that showed Alan had repaired their fracture. Of course Ryan's talk with Chrissy was calculated. The guy had a week to prepare for the moment that production had set up for him. It was such an obvious move it's not even worth mentioning. Finally, I should have said every smart player would have given that first advantage to Chrissy. Dumb players? I have no idea what most would have done although I guess you would have given it to Ben.
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Aruba 2647 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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10-24-17, 07:27 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
I’ll be out of state for the remainder of this week and will not be able to watch tomorrow’s episode, so I’ll be unable to post a list after tomorrow night. To be continued the following week...Not surprisingly all my accurate observations are “not good examples.” I suppose they’re bad because they support my point. Truth be told, in all my examples the eventual winner emerged from an early dominant tribe. And the one example you cite is from the Philippines? Who is Denise?? Don’t bother answering; please stick with “real” seasons. Yes, targeting the strong IS a common strategy...it’s called the Anti-Darwin Syndrome. Sure Ryan took a chance. Many successful castaways took chances if they didn’t ride coattails and/or were handed the million dollars. So, Lauren was sure Mike didn’t know? Wrong, but keep rubbing that crystal ball (much to Kingfish’s chagrin.) She was testing him to see his reaction...and Mike immediately ran to tell Cole/Jessica. Mission accomplished for Laruen. It was probably a much easier play then hitting a catcher in the forehead from centerfield. As much as Russell dominated Samoa, Tony was a more complete player than Hantz. That’s why Tony dumped Trish and also why he wanted no part of Pillow Morgan making it to the end to join the list of the pathetically inept who were given the million by default. Natalie never makes the F3 with Tony. The one determination we both agree on is your initial assessment that Ashley “caves in” and would have voted out Alan to avoid drawing rocks. Losing Alan is not that catastrophic knowing she still has Devon to pair with leaving TC. Not the same scenario with Desi...if she turns on Joe she goes back to camp on the short end of a 3-1 split. In a revote I suppose Desi could have thought the same way as Ashley and if they both decided to flip it’s still 1-1 with Desi and Ashley drawing rocks. Either way, Sluggo’s safe. Now understand all these scenarios became possible ONLY because of Devon’s vote being blocked. Without that block, Joe (and Desi) walk into TC knowing the vote would be 3-2 with Joe having to play his idol. In fairness to Joe, the scenarios of not having to play his idol needed to be processed only after it was revealed Devon would not be voting, so I won’t be too critical on Sluggo for not keeping the idol. On the other hand, if he was able to process quickly and did not play it, I would have then given him the credit he deserved. Deciding who to give the first advantage to is not a question of Smart vs. Dumb...it’s a decision whether you wanted to set the Anti-Darwin Syndrome in motion or not. Ryan decided to do so and smartly turned that decision into a splendid play making the Jersey Girl feel “loved.” Michel says:
“The guy had a week to prepare for the moment that production had set up for him.” Aruba says:
“IIIIIII BURIEEEEED PAAAAAUL”
“TURN ME ON, DEAD MAN”
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michel2 2263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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10-24-17, 07:56 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-17 AT 08:23 PM (EST)>I’ll be out of state for
>the remainder of this week
>and will not be able
>to watch tomorrow’s episode, so
>I’ll be unable to post
>a list after tomorrow night.
>To be continued the following
>week... I'll post a list just for fun. >Not surprisingly all my accurate observations
>are “not good examples.” I
>suppose they’re bad because they
>support my point. Truth be
>told, in all my examples
>the eventual winner emerged from
>an early dominant tribe. And
>the one example you cite
>is from the Philippines? Who
>is Denise?? Don’t bother answering;
>please stick with “real” seasons. No, your examples aren't good because they don't follow your premise. You say that a tribe that dominates pre-merger has done well after the emrger but that's not accurate at all. Tony's brawn tribe didn't dominate it was only Tony, Trish and members of other tribes. Same with the Blue Collars where Rodney was the only Blue Collar in the dominating alliance and the Beauty tribe where Michelle was left alone from the original Beauty tribe. Everyone else got the boot. >
>Yes, targeting the strong IS a
>common strategy...it’s called the Anti-Darwin
>Syndrome. If it's asmart strategy it isn't Anti-Darwin because it's evolution that gave us those smarts in the first place! >Sure Ryan took a chance. Many
>successful castaways took chances if
>they didn’t ride coattails and/or
>were handed the million dollars. Many failed castaways took chances. The move shouldn't be judged only on its results but on the probabilities of having a good result. I think telling Devon was like playing Russian roulette and Ryan simply didn't get shot. >So, Lauren was sure Mike didn’t
>know? Wrong, but keep rubbing
>that crystal ball (much to
>Kingfish’s chagrin.) She was testing
>him to see his reaction...and
>Mike immediately ran to tell
>Cole/Jessica. Mission accomplished for Laruen.
>It was probably a much
>easier play then hitting a
>catcher in the forehead from
>centerfield. Lauren said she was going to tell Mike BECAUSE he m ust not have been told so you're wrong. >As much as Russell dominated Samoa,
>Tony was a more complete
>player than Hantz. That’s why
>Tony dumped Trish and also
>why he wanted no part
>of Pillow Morgan making it
>to the end to join
>the list of the pathetically
>inept who were given the
>million by default. Natalie never
>makes the F3 with Tony. Yet Tony made the dumb mistake of keeping Spencer to F4 where only Kass astonishing win saved the dumbass cop. >The one determination we both agree
>on is your initial assessment
>that Ashley “caves in” and
>would have voted out Alan
>to avoid drawing rocks. Losing
>Alan is not that catastrophic
>knowing she still has Devon
>to pair with leaving TC.
>Not the same scenario with
>Desi...if she turns on Joe
>she goes back to camp
>on the short end of
>a 3-1 split. Better 3-1 than picking the wrong rock and going hime. >In a revote I suppose Desi
>could have thought the same
>way as Ashley and if
>they both decided to flip
>it’s still 1-1 with Desi
>and Ashley drawing rocks. Either
>way, Sluggo’s safe. Now understand
>all these scenarios became possible
>ONLY because of Devon’s vote
>being blocked. Without that block,
>Joe (and Desi) walk into
>TC knowing the vote would
>be 3-2 with Joe having
>to play his idol. In
>fairness to Joe, the scenarios
>of not having to play
>his idol needed to be
>processed only after it was
>revealed Devon would not be
>voting, so I won’t be
>too critical on Sluggo for
>not keeping the idol. On
>the other hand, if he
>was able to process quickly
>and did not play it,
>I would have then given
>him the credit he deserved. No matter how you spin it, Joe played it well. >Deciding who to give the first
>advantage to is not a
>question of Smart vs. Dumb...it’s
>a decision whether you wanted
>to set the Anti-Darwin Syndrome
>in motion or not. Ryan
>decided to do so and
>smartly turned that decision into
>a splendid play making the
>Jersey Girl feel “loved.” Ryan wanted to mess up the leading alliance on another tribe which is smart and therefore not Anti-Darwinism. >Michel says:
>“The guy had a week to
>prepare for the moment that
>production had set up for
>him.”
>
>Aruba says:
>“IIIIIII BURIEEEEED PAAAAAUL”
>“TURN ME ON, DEAD MAN” When they created this new twist, production had to realize it would be a great alliance-building tool so they did set up an alliance and they did give the player, whomever that was going to be, a week's time to figure it out. A conspiracy theory would be to say that production fixed the challenges to make sure first Ryan's and later Jessica's tribe would win the challenges so that their twists would have to be given away. I'm certainly not ready to say that since they had a 67% chance of getting their way without interference but maybe, just maybe, they did something to increase those odds. It is their modus operandi...
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Aruba 2647 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Survivor-themed Cruise Spokesperson"
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10-24-17, 10:14 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
I don’t have a lot of time getting ready for my “hijack” so consequently this will be my last post this week. A few parting shots before my abduction…
>I'll post a list just for
>fun.
>
AWWW, thanks. That’s why you’re my MAIN DUDE!
>
>No, your examples aren't good because
>they don't follow your premise.
> You say that a
>tribe that dominates pre-merger has
>done well after the emrger
>but that's not accurate at
>all. Tony's brawn tribe
>didn't dominate it was only
>Tony, Trish and members of
>other tribes. Same with
>the Blue Collars where Rodney
>was the only Blue Collar
>in the dominating alliance and
>the Beauty tribe where Michelle
>was left alone from the
>original Beauty tribe. Everyone
>else got the boot.
>
My premise is the tribe who starts out dominant in the three-tribe format ends up pretty well. Not sure why pre-merger/post-merger was brought up because I do not recall using that stage of the game as the determining mark for my premise…but I’ll run with it now.
In the first BBB the Brawn players were dominant pre-merge. The only reason two didn’t not make the merge was because Lindsey quit; thus only one Brawn was voted out. And BOTH of the F2 were Brawns. In Worlds Apart only one Blue Collar did not make the merge and FOUR out of the F6 were Blues. Dominant start; dominant finish…with Blue Collar Mike winning it all. In the second BBB, only one Beauty was voted out prior to Merge. (Caleb was medivaced.) And TWO of the F3 Finalists were Beauties. Dominant start; dominant finish...with Beauty taking home the million. I guess you’re right—my examples aren’t good, They’re excellent.
>If it's asmart strategy it
>isn't Anti-Darwin because it's evolution
>that gave us those smarts
>in the first place!
>
Yes, evolution gave us Darwinism. The pathetic job Production does casting inept players gives us Anti-Darwinism.
>
>Many failed castaways took chances.
>The move shouldn't be judged
>only on its results but
>on the probabilities of having
>a good result. I
>think telling Devon was like
>playing Russian roulette and Ryan
>simply didn't get shot.
>
Ryan didn’t choose Devon by going eeny, meeny, miny, moe. As a 90-pound weakling, his approach was to purposely align with a physically dominant player, so the strategy was calculated and well-thought. Devon was the only tribe mate who was going to fit the bill, so he moved forward with his gameplay and smartly used his advantage as the hook. He took the risk and reaped the reward. Well done!
>Lauren said she was going to
>tell Mike BECAUSE he m
>ust not have been told
>so you're wrong.
>
Well of course Lauren was going to play dumb to Mike to make him think she was giving him the information firsthand. That’s how she baited the hook. Mike took the bait and Lauren/Ben both saw him immediately run to Jessica/Cole right after Lauren’s inquisition. Mike handled the inquisition poorly, so her mission proved successful.
>
>Yet Tony made the dumb mistake
>of keeping Spencer to F4
>where only Kass astonishing win
>saved the dumbass cop.
>
Tony didn't keep Spencer to F4; Spencer EARNED his place in the F4 but winning the F6 AND F5 ICs.
>
>Better 3-1 than picking the wrong
>rock and going hime.
>
We both agreed Ashley would have “caved in” so there would be no drawing of rocks. Unless Desi would have caved in as well, which would have ended 1-1 anyway. The prospect of heading back to camp on the short end of 3-1 makes me fairly certain Desi would have stuck with Joe on a revote. Drawing rocks would have given her a 50% chance of surviving. Being on the wrong end of a 3-1 gives her only 25% of success.
>
>No matter how you spin it,
>Joe played it well.
> I’m not criticizing Joe for playing the Idol, but on the same token I’m not giving Sluggo “credit” for what he had in his mind to do walking into TC knowing the votes were going to be 3-2 against him. Had he quickly reprocessed his options when it was revealed Devon would not be voting, he could have had his cake and eaten it too. Now THAT would have been creditable.
>
>Ryan wanted to mess up the
>leading alliance on another tribe
>which is smart and therefore
>not Anti-Darwinism.
>
Ryan had absolutely no idea what the “leading alliance” was on the Hero tribe that early in the game. As a 90-pound weakling, his sole intention was to give the advantage to a weaker Hero in hopes of eliminating a stronger player. A pristine example of Anti-Darwinism.
>When they created this new twist,
>production had to realize it
>would be a great alliance-building
>tool so they did set
>up an alliance and they
>did give the player, whomever
>that was going to be,
>a week's time to figure
>it out. A conspiracy
>theory would be to say
>that production fixed the challenges
>to make sure first Ryan's
>and later Jessica's tribe would
>win the challenges so that
>their twists would have to
>be given away. I'm
>certainly not ready to say
>that since they had a
>67% chance of getting their
>way without interference but maybe,
>just maybe, they did something
>to increase those odds.
>It is their modus operandi...
>
Maybe I'm getting tired because I having some difficulty following what you're trying to say in your last comment. I think it has something to do with a fix or rig due to your unacceptance of particular outcomes...IDK.
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michel2 2263 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Seventeen Magazine Model"
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10-24-17, 11:17 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Survivor S35 Ep 4 Ranking" |
LAST EDITED ON 10-24-17 AT 11:21 PM (EST)
I don't know if you'll see this but here goes anyway!
>My premise is the tribe who
>starts out dominant in the
>three-tribe format ends up pretty
>well. Not sure why pre-merger/post-merger
>was brought up because I
>do not recall using that
>stage of the game as
>the determining mark for my
>premise…but I’ll run with it
>now. My point is that the tribe that dominates the pre-merge is in trouble once we get a swap or the merger. We've heard this very season that the Healers are being targeted because they are still 6. It has nothing to do with your supposed Anti-Darwinism but simple math: You have to bring down their numbers if you don't want them to continue dominating simply because of their numbers. Yes, your examples show that players from that early dominating tribe can still win in the end but I've shown you that it wasn't because they had kept their numbers. Other variables came into play. >In the first BBB the Brawn
>players were dominant pre-merge. The
>only reason two didn’t not
>make the merge was because
>Lindsey quit; thus only one
>Brawn was voted out. And
>BOTH of the F2 were
>Brawns. But that was because No-Brains Kass gave them the game. >In Worlds Apart only one Blue
>Collar did not make the
>merge and FOUR out of
>the F6 were Blues. Dominant
>start; dominant finish…with Blue Collar
>Mike winning it all.
Mike certainly didn't ride the Blue collar alliance though.
>In the second BBB, only one
>Beauty was voted out prior
>to Merge. (Caleb was medivaced.)
>And TWO of the F3
>Finalists were Beauties. Dominant start;
>dominant finish...with Beauty taking home
>the million.
Michelle didn't make it to the end because of the Beauty tribe's dominance. >I guess you’re right—my examples aren’t
>good, They’re excellent. They're incomplete. >>If it's asmart strategy it
>>isn't Anti-Darwin because it's evolution
>>that gave us those smarts
>>in the first place!
>>
>
>Yes, evolution gave us Darwinism. The
>pathetic job Production does casting
>inept players gives us Anti-Darwinism. So you agree that Ryan is lucky instead of good!
>Ryan didn’t choose Devon by going
>eeny, meeny, miny, moe. As
>a 90-pound weakling, his approach
>was to purposely align with
>a physically dominant player, so
>the strategy was calculated and
>well-thought. Devon was the only
>tribe mate who was going
>to fit the bill, so
>he moved forward with his
>gameplay and smartly used his
>advantage as the hook. He
>took the risk and reaped
>the reward. Well done!
Todd won by making sure Courtney stayed so maybe Ryan would have been better served by keeping Simone! Ryan didn't really know Devon when he chose to tell him. We've agreed before, I think, that it's better to keep possession of an idol or an advantage secret. At least there is a large majority of commentators who agree on that: You tell someone only when you need to tell someone.
>
>Well of course Lauren was going
>to play dumb to Mike
>to make him think she
>was giving him the information
>firsthand. That’s how she baited
>the hook. Mike took the
>bait and Lauren/Ben both saw
>him immediately run to Jessica/Cole
>right after Lauren’s inquisition. Mike
>handled the inquisition poorly, so
>her mission proved successful.
Lauren's mission was to recruit Mike to gain a 3-2 advantage. She pushed him right back to the Healers = MAJOR FAILURE!
>Tony didn't keep Spencer to F4;
>Spencer EARNED his place in
>the F4 but winning the
>F6 AND F5 ICs.
Yes but before that Tony had a clear shots at Spencer but voted out LJ, Jeremiah and Jefra instead.
>We both agreed Ashley would have
>“caved in” so there would
>be no drawing of rocks.
>Unless Desi would have caved
>in as well, which would
>have ended 1-1 anyway. The
>prospect of heading back to
>camp on the short end
>of 3-1 makes me fairly
>certain Desi would have stuck
>with Joe on a revote.
>Drawing rocks would have given
>her a 50% chance of
>surviving. Being on the wrong
>end of a 3-1 gives
>her only 25% of success.
WE agree that Ashley would have caved in but JOE had no idea. That's why he couldn't risk his game on Desi without giving her the idol.
>I’m not criticizing Joe for playing
>the Idol, but on the
>same token I’m not giving
>Sluggo “credit” for what he
>had in his mind to
>do walking into TC knowing
>the votes were going to
>be 3-2 against him. Had
>he quickly reprocessed his options
>when it was revealed Devon
>would not be voting, he
>could have had his cake
>and eaten it too. Now
>THAT would have been creditable. No, he couldn't risk it.
>Ryan had absolutely no idea what
>the “leading alliance” was on
>the Hero tribe that early
>in the game. As a
>90-pound weakling, his sole intention
>was to give the advantage
>to a weaker Hero in
>hopes of eliminating a stronger
>player. A pristine example of
>Anti-Darwinism.
He saw that Chrissy was suffering after that first challenge so by giving her the idol he was playing the odds that she'd be voted out. He was WRONG and if you noticed, Chrissy hasn't told him that se's kept that idol. Maybe she has a surprise in store for Ryan!
I'm saying that production's newest twist was designed to create a cross-tribal alliance. Ryan didn't have anything to do but tell Chriisy he had given her the advantage. It all fell in his lap. I added that production probably prefered seeing that advantage passed from one tribe to the other so maybe they made sure it would be. As soon as I saw the three puzzle tables, it was evident that the platform one was the best option yet the Hustlers, who were picking first, chose the most complicated one. Weird...so weird I cannot but wonder if they were forced to pick that one.
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