LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 08:07 PM (EST)

***This has been reposted (with edits) in the GUT theory thread, here:
http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/cgi-bin/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=989&forum=DCForumID2&omm=0

================================================================
All of us are analyzing this from the point of what WE want to happen, but I'd like to take a second (or a little longer...) to analyze on a case-by-case basis what the PLAYERS want to happen:

They all want to win the million dollars. Don't believe for a second when Colby or Keith tell you that they'd rather stop Jerri from winning than win it themselves... especially if they can do BOTH. Here's what (I think) the players are thinking:

First, the final IC in S1 was an endurance test, thus ANY PLAYER CAN WIN, if they get that far... in other words, no matter how strong or smart a player is, they will only have a 33% chance to win the final immunity.

KUCHA
---------------------
Kucha (and the rest of America) will continue to plead with any Ogakor to join with them in a vote to eliminate Jerri... and one by one, Kucha will join the jury... at least for Ep9 and 10...

AMBER and JERRI
---------------------
From the interviews in Ep8, we know that Amber and Jerri think that they have Colby in their pocket. Therefore, it makes since for them to try to hold the Oga alliance together. First, the Kucha go, then Tina and Keith, then if either Amber or Jerri wins the final IC, they vote out Colby and leave it up to the jury.
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in their opinion): 67%

TINA and KEITH
---------------------
Colby's Ep8 interview tells us that he is more aligned with Tina and Keith than he is with Jerri and Amber, but he is playing the double agent. Presumably, Tina and Keith know this (he told Jerri and Amber he was double agent, when not true, why wouldn't he Tina and Keith what his real plans are, if he's their real ally). Thus, the same logic I applied to Amber and Jerri applies to Tina and Keith
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in their opinion): 67%

COLBY
---------------------
Truly in the best position in the game at this time... can coast for Ep8, as a Kucha gets voted out... Nick WILL NOT GO, based soley on the editing. Liz is the likely choice, due to her pleas with Oga to join the Kucha (but she wins immunity???), but Rodger will go (Spoilers: it always rains in the outback, Helicopter 7 (True: Rodger, Red Herring: Rodger... so we'lll all believe Helicopter 4), Source Code (true: NOT Liz, false: NOT Liz, yet... so we'll keep believing, as another Kucha bites the dust), Weight Loss, Featured in last Ep (Wasn't Kel fishing to provide food right before the short-sighted Ogas voted him off...))

in the Ep10, another Kucha will bite the dust, if Nick is featured Ep9, it might be him, otherwise, say a long tearful goodbye to Liz... My vote is for Elisabeth... she put too much heat on herself, and is too likable, but if she wins IC, bye Nick.

This leaves Colby, TinaKeith, JerriAmber, and one Kucha in the tribe.

Colby has these options:

OPTION A
------------
Colby sticks to his word and votes out Kucha... then allies with TinaKeith and votes out Jerri (America Cheers) and finally Amber. But then, he MUST win the IC, or the tighter TinaKeith alliance votes for him.
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in his opinion): 33%

OPTION B
------------
Colby sticks to his word and votes out Kucha... then allies with JerriAmber and votes out Keith (Jerri Cheers, America vomits) and finally Tina. But then, he MUST win the IC, or the tighter JerriAmber alliance votes for him.
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in his opinion): 33%

OPTION C
------------
This option works best if Nick is the final Kucha, although it will also work with Lovable Liz...

Colby approaches the remaining Kucha (before the IC, so it won't be a factor), and offers him/her a chance to be in the final two... you've never seen an alliance form so fast... who wouldn't jump at the chance for a million... all the Kucha has to do is not say anything and vote exactly as Colby instructs.

I will refer to the Kucha as Nick, but if it would work with Liz just as well.

In Ep11, Colby approaches Keith and tells him that Jerri and Amber have been trying to talk Colby into voting for Keith... he suggests that Keith and Tina vote for Jerri this week, to break up the alliance, and wait until next week to vote off Nick (esp if Nick wins IC). They agree, and Keith, Tina, and NICK vote for Jerri. COLBY, Amber, and Jerri vote for Nick. Jerri, who by now has enough previous votes to sink the Titanic, loses tie-breaker, since Nick has no votes. America cheers... so long Jerri!

In Ep12: Keith and Tina realize Colby lied... they both voted for Jerri, and Nick did not vote for himself, so Colby must have lied to them and voted for Nick, but...

Amber, however is clueless... it seems that Colby has stuck with the original agreement to vote for Nick, but Nick and KeithTina have allied and voted for Jerri. Bitter, but willing to stick with her old ally, Amber and Colby "persuade" Nick to join them and vote for Keith (or Tina if Keith wins IC). Amber, Colby, and Nick vote Keith, who loses to Colby in a three-two vote. Leaving Tina as a target for the next council.

In Ep13: Tina is voted out. Amber believes that she and Colby are allied and that it's Tina's fault that her master is gone, so she's voting for Tina. Nick is greatful to Colby for saving his butt, so he'll vote Tina, too.

In Ep14: Immunity challenge decides the last two.

If Colby wins IC, he takes Amber... he'll probably get all four of the Kucha Jury votes because Amber is hated and he took Nick to the last three... He gets no Ogakor votes, due to his backstabbing of Jerri, Keith, and Tina.

If Amber wins IC, she takes her ally Colby (and not Nick, who got Jerri voted out in the first place)... Colby wins, based on same reasoning as above, plus Amber took down the final Kucha... one more reason for them to be bitter.

If Nick wins IC, he takes Colby, who saved him back in Ep11... it's a part of the original deal that they made. Nick wins, because all of the Ogakor know Colby stabbed them in the back, and because he gets every vote from Kucha. Colby makes some cheesy "Outwit was on the logo" speech, but it's only enough to get Tina's vote.

(NOTE: if Jerri wins IC in Ep11, just interchange Jerri and Keith's names and Amber and Tina's names, and this strategy still works for Colby. Final Three = Tina, Colby, Nick... Tina wins, unless Nick wins last IC.)

CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in Colby's opinion): 100%
CHANCE AT $1 MILLION (in Colby's opinion): 67%

Therefore, this is the best possible scenario for Colby, and, if he's smart, this is how it will all play out.

SPOILERS ACCOUNTED FOR (After the fact):
------------------------------------------------
1) Weight Loss Theory

2) All theories listed above about why Rodger will go next week.

3) CJ's Richard=Colby and Kelly=Amber vidcaps

4) Tina's hunger/baths when arriving home (she's fourth out). (Shakes' People Mag. Spoiler).

5) Alicia's Go Kucha comment (especially if Nick wins it all)

6) Jeff's "things get interesting"

7) Jerri is Black Widow (as she votes against Colby in the final vote, and tries to persuade the jury to do so, just like Susan last year)

8) Alicia-Jerri friendship (they go shopping, after getting to know each other on the jury)

9) Jerri-Amber friendship problems (maybe Amber says something at TC, or maybe, after being freed from her leash, she realizes that Jerri wasn't so great afterall)

10) Keith on every episode rumor (duh!!! he's at every TC on the jury... we've ALREADY got confirmation of this "spoiler").

11) Source Code: If red herring, Elisabeth eliminated late enough to make us believe it a while, AND MB bonus (there's always a little bonus in his red herrings)... Amber really was one of the final two!!

12) Source Code: If real, Just replace Nick with Elisabeth; Liz wins final IC, votes off Colby and beats Amber in the final vote... opening credits: Amber w/ Liz's immunity headdress (means they are the last two) and colby in another shot (he is the one that got them there, and the last one voted out)

13) Mad Dog's friends include Rodger (next one off) but not Nick or Amber (last three) or Jerri (Who would be friends with Jerri!?!?!) or Liz (voted off in Ep10, after Mad Dog has left the ranch for a tour of Australia, or switch Liz and Nick for same analysis). (Not Mike either, but he's injured...)

14) MB's comment "alliances don't play a big role"... how many did Colby break to get here???

15) I'm sure there are more, but my brain hurts, and since I derived this entire theory (with the exception of Rodger/Liz order of booting) without the aid of ANY spoilers, I'll stop now and leave you to decide if this has any merit.

----------------------------------------
Final Four: UCLA, Stanford, Ole Miss, and Michigan St.