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PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate
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"Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")"
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 00:24 AM (EST)
 
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"Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 01:20 AM (EST)For the first time since E2, I feel like we have a slight edge on MB. In fact, I feel like we should be able to predict the outcome of the rest of the show from here. Several of us have made posts on the various elements of this theory in different threads, but I'm going to try to bring all the evidence together here. 1. The pictures from the end of the opening credits. CJ has been focused on these pictures for a long time (see his multiple threads on the subject). One looks like a closeup of Amber wearing Elisabeth's immunity headdress. One looks like a closeup of Keith's eyes. The identity of the other two is uncertain. CJ has contended they are Jerri and Colby. Most of us disagree. shakes thinks they are simply the same shot as in the closeups. I believe wildcamper's take on the pictures: one is a morphing of the Amber picture into Kelly; the other is a morphing of the Keith picture into Richard. If this is what they really are, they can only represent one thing: the final two. The immunity headdress represents the fact that Amber reached the finals by winning immunity, as did Kelly. We don't know if the morphing represents finish order as well. 2. The PEOPLE Magazine spoiler uncovered by shakes about Tina's return home. According to Tina's husband, she got home, took a three-hour tub bath, and then ate like a ravenous wolf. shakes thought that this meant Tina reached the last 2 and never had a chance to do this at the resort. I have argued that she wouldn't have a chance to do any of this if she were third either, because her "extra day" out of the tribe would be spent at TC. 3. The Alicia-Jerri friendship. Alicia revealed today on "ET" that she was the person who went shopping in Oz with Jerri for five days after the show ended. This seems to indicate that Jerri spent a LOT of time in the resort, because she had plenty of time to get close to Alicia. It also indicates something else. 4. Problems in the Jerri-Amber friendship. We know nothing about this. But while Jerri has been traveling to NYC to meet with Jeff, Alicia and Mitchell, we haven't heard a word about Amber. Wouldn't you think that they would have done SOMETHING together, considering how close they have been portrayed? Call it a hunch, but SOMETHING happens here. 5. Amber's relative lack of publicity. Hey, not since Kelly has a potential finalist been seen or heard from this little. Of course, we all know why Kelly was reticent after the show ended to meet with her "old friends." We know nothing about Amber, but we can speculate about similarities. We know that she hasn't even kept in touch with Maralyn, although she still has the Mad Dog cap (and Maralyn called her the Mad Pup). 6. Maralyn's Friends. Of the people still in the tribe, the only Kucha member who is one of Maralyn's Friends is Rodger. Neither Nick or Liz are among Maralyn's Friends, nor is Jerri. 7. The Barramundi Camp. MB makes a big point in his S2 book that if you build your camp in a dry creek bed, it will get flooded when the rains come. Barramundi did just that, per Jerri's "demand" and against Rodger and Colby's advice. This is a sufficient motivation for the Ogakor to break game logic and give Jerri an early boot. The rains started at the end of E8 and continue into E10. 8. Rodger's Party. Rodger threw a big party during last week's episode at Jillian's in metro Cincy. He has had little parties each week prior to this. Intuitively, it seems like a "last chance" party. 9. The red herrings. We have two OBVIOUS red herrings being dangled before us: the "source code spoiler" and the "Edina Lester" helicopter overflight story. Both appear to have come from MB. The source code spoiler was put into play after E7 and says that the final two are Amber and Elisabeth. The Edina Lester story was also put into play after E7 and says that there were two helicopter overflights done, one during E10 and one during E13: at the E10 overflight, Alicia and Rodger were gone; at the E13 overflight, they couldn't get as close but there were three girls and a guy left. While both of these appear to be classic red herrings, MB would want them to hold up for a least a little while to tantalize the Web public. Therefore, both Amber and Liz stay for a while in the tribe, and Alicia and Rodger probably are the next two voted off. 10. The "Keith is on every episode" rumor from a Detroit-area chef, reported on ss.com. Well, if we accept #1, then this is also true. How to put those all together? My GUT ("Grand Unified Theory") tells me to put them together like this: E9: The rains flood the camp. Nevertheless, Rodger gets voted off. E10: But the camp locator must also be held responsible. Perhaps she yells at Colby about the flood. Colby talks to Amber in secret to ensure her loyalty after Jerri leaves. Amber agrees to stick to her tribe. Jerri leaves, angry and frustrated, with the cheers of the tribe still ringing in her ears. E11: Get-Sick-Quick-Nick can finally go get treated after 14 days of misery. Adios Nick. E12: Now Liz goes, simply because she is the last Kucha. She votes for Amber. She leaves her headdress. E13. Left in the game are Colby, Keith, Tina, and Amber. C/K/T expect to be the final three. But Mbr (Miss Buy-a-vowel) wins immunity. A tie vote, with Keith and Tina voting together for Colby. He loses the tiebreaker against Keith and leaves. E14: Amber wins immunity again (thus, the headdress). She chooses to take the arrogant Keith into the final instead of maternal Tina. Jerri is still angry about the way she left and may even flame Amber. OK, this GUT ties together all of the spoilers that I mentioned. It does NOT include the Boston Herald's "Liz makes final four" ... but I don't give the Herald much respect (it refused to print the name of this site, because it said that "blows" was more offensive than "sucks"), and anyway, she finishes fifth, which is close enough for the Herald. Please feel free to post any spoilers to this thread which are not addressed by the GUT or which conflict with it. Thanks.
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-16-01, 02:12 AM (EST)
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1. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 02:15 AM (EST)I have three problems with the GUT theory. First, most spoilers aren't reliable, so to weave them together to make sense is tricky at best. Second, why wouldn't Elisabeth be an earlier target? She was the one behind the attempt to break Ogakor. Rodger is weak physically, and Nick is sick so he's weaker. Elisabeth appears the strongest and larger threat in Kucha (not that they need a threat). But third and maybe most important is Jerri will not consciously allow herself to go before the final four. She could win immunity "at the wrong time" and we have the start of problems for Ogakor. But she also could use Kucha to axe the Ogakors. Presently, she is going fifth if Ogakor runs Kucha compeltely into the ground. However, she can do better if she switches to Kucha. Kucha knows (I think) that Tina will not take the bait and join them otherwise she may have done it last week. But even if not, she was mentioned in the Jerri "crack." (However, the "crack" is everyone but Amber). E10 is the time to actually align with Jerri if you are a Kucha because Jerri is likely to attempt to move through E9 trusting Colby. If she does, and she switches, she's guaranteed fourth place as the K/C/T bond goes bye bye unless the last Ogakor wins immunity before the final four. Then Jerri could axe a Kucha if she knew the Ogakor's (K/C/T) single vote. While it is unlikely that Jerri, at this point, could win a tie breaker with anyone, she would have to win immunity each time to continue beyond fourth. Jerri is fairly smart, but how smart? If I were her, I would know I have little chance at the million. Time to take second place. If she believes Colby she will die fast. But if she plays the percentages, she can possibly get into the final. I also have to say, that by doing this, Kucha will gain new life. But it is also possible that should Amber continue to have zero votes, she has the opportunity to join Jerri in the final two, and if anyone is to win in Jerri's mind and it isn't her, it is Amber.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 04:06 AM (EST)
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2. "Sorry, no way" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 02:10 PM (EST)Minstrel, I'm going to add another post on why Keith wins (he does, you know), but first I need to address these three points that you made. 1. Weaving spoilers together makes no sense because most spoilers aren't reliable. Then what are we doing on these boards in the first place? Clearly we believe that we can find credible spoilers. But how can we evaluate them? Well, it's just like anything else in logic: each proposition stands on its own. And in spoiling, I think we need to depend more on Occam's Razor: the simplest solution is generally the right one. I disobeyed this rule with regard to E6, at great cost to this board. We knew there was an injury. We knew Mike burned his hands and needed compression gloves, although you challenged the picture repeatedly. Following Occam's Razor, I should have concluded that the injury was Mike's burn, but I didn't. You distracted me from the truth then. Are you trying to distract me now? If so, why? Edited to add: (This is intended to be a teasing comment, not a challenging one. In re-reading this post, I see that it doesn't sound teasing; it sounds like I'm accusing Minstrel of working for MB. That was not my intent!) I believe the evidence of my own eyes with regard to the pictures from the opening credits: it is Amber and Keith in shots that can barely be tracked by the naked eye. The fact that Amber and Keith are in these shots doesn't make them the final two, but then there they are being morphed with Kelly and Richard, the final two in S1. Occam's Razor: they are the final two in S2. The Tina spoiler from People Magazine puts Tina in the final three. Why? Because this behavior only makes sense from someone who has not had a day to herself after being voted off. Do people sometimes behave in ways that don't make sense? Yes. But let's keep our grip on Occam's Razor: she is in the final three. Keith and Amber are 1 and 2, so Tina is 3. 2. Elisabeth should be the next target of Ogakor. I'm not convinced that Elisabeth isn't an earlier target. She might go in E11 instead of Nick. But she isn't the target in E9, Rodger is, even though I don't know why. Maralyn's Friends tells me so, as does the fact that MB planted an elaborate red herring that predicts Liz will reach the final two. Occam's Razor: she must stick around at least as long as Gervase did from the Gervase-X red herring last year (E10). And then Jerri will go in E10. 3. Jerri will betray Ogakor before they can vote her off. Minstrel, you and most everyone else on this board are overlooking Jerri's most striking character trait: loyalty. Jerri isn't at ALL strategic. She wouldn't know strategy if it crawled up her leg. We have imagined these betrayal abilities into her, because they aren't part of her makeup. Jerri's number one character trait (after nymphomania) is loyalty. She has been loyal to her alliance at every step of the way. She was loyal to Mitchell. She is loyal to Amber, inviting Amber to share dinner when a better strategic move would have been to invite Tina or Liz. She is loyal to Colby, running to him for protection when she thought she was threatened by Tina-Liz. And she expects Colby and Amber to be loyal to her. Betrayal of Ogakor? Show me ONE PIECE of evidence that the thought has ever crossed her mind. Minstrel, we know Jerri and Alicia became good enough friends IN OZ to go shopping together after filming ended. I cannot figure out a simple way that such a close friendship would have occurred if Liz was voted out of the tribe before Jerri, because Alicia would have had Liz to pal around with. Occam's Razor: Jerri goes before Liz. Actually, my only real doubt is whether Nick also goes before Liz -- my only evidence here is the Boston Herald "final four" pick and Jeff Probst's "14 days" comment, both of which are of dubious predictive value Minstrel, I think these conclusions are obvious. There is a classic science fiction story called "Who Goes There?" by John H. Campbell Jr. (twice made into inferior movies as "The Thing from Outer Space" and "The Thing") in which one of the main characters figures out a way to tell the humans from the aliens (who have mild telepathy). As he starts to describe it, he realizes that the only listeners who know for sure that it will work are himself and the aliens, who have read the details from his mind, and he has to hurry to start the test before they can sabotage him or it. Right now, for one of the few times in my life, I feel like that character. Sorry for the megalomania.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 02:17 PM (EST)
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10. "Tactics vs. strategy" |
You're right; I was imprecise. Jerri does have a strategy: get in to an alliance and ride it to the end. What she does not comprehend are tactics: the steps you need to take (sometimes just for expedience) to reach your goal. A defection from Ogakor to vote temporarily with Kucha in order to reduce the threat to herself would be such a tactical move, but Jerri does not see it.
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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-16-01, 01:53 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Sorry, no way" |
>Jerri's number one character trait (after
>nymphomania) is loyalty. She
>has been loyal to her
>alliance at every step of
>the way. I agree completely! We have all spend time mistaking her loyalty for cunning. (At least I have). If there's anyone out there that is naive, it's Jerri. She won't stab her alliance in the back. She talked big about getting into Kucha and "mixing it up", but so far, no dice!
>I cannot figure out a simple
>way that such a close
>friendship would have occurred if
>Liz was voted out of
>the tribe before Jerri, because
>Alicia would have had Liz
>to pal around with.
>Occam's Razor: Jerri goes before
>Liz. I'm not sure that I agree with the logic that Alicia would not still pal around with Jerri even if she get's voted out after Lis. Alicia and Lis were tight, but remember she did talk about Lis being "naive" about getting a voting bloc going with Tina and Keith. I think that Alicia and Jerri would gravitate towards each other in a social (ranch) situation because they have more in common than Alicia and Lis have. (forgive my dangling participle!)
>Minstrel, I think these conclusions are
>obvious. There is a
>classic science fiction story called
>"Who Goes There?" by John
>H. Campbell Jr.
!! One of my favorite books!!
*I like the number 333...it's only half as evil.
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-18-01, 04:53 AM (EST)
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40. "RE: Sorry, no way" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-18-01 AT 04:58 AM (EST)Aya, just saw this response, as I have had less time to post. I don't take your comments as an attack nor are mine to others. While I can't reveal my "work" or identity any more than anyone else here, you wouldn't believe it if I did. And there's no need to go through all the flaming and doubting. That's not part of what makes these boards and forums fun. The Mike's hands issue is an example. One pic had a five finger and one thumb for example. It is what made you rethink your position on the issue. That's good, because people can lay out sound logic to support even the ugliest of theories. We know people pick up on things and "validate it" with other false information. But my real concern was how the site posted the pic and then took it down. The more I thought and searched, the more "obvious" it became that indeed Mike was burned and would leave, a notion I actually believed even if at the last moment. I ended up predicting that as others did. You will recall I stated I was investigating the "glove" with medical professionals and I did. I learned the answer the morning of the show and it convinced me. Up to then it could have been trickery. But the real convincing piece was later that day when I was able to track down the IP on the address and confirm it's originality and the "owner." The real issue was what happened with the TC? It is why the "boot" was incorrect. There was no boot. And the lack of knowledge about the rules didn't help either. But as I know, the rules are interpreted with each instance just like laws are. And, we will see more of this in the future. I think that is common knowledge without specific examples. MB is a master and I've learned a lot from him. He has his ways of tricking the speculators and it is working. Granted, all the detective work leads down the wrong path more times than not, but there is one answer, if you can find it. While I disagree with some things, such as certain weight loss examples, that concept does have some validity. But when hypothesizing, part of the analysis is why something doesn't happen as well as does happen. That is where MB shines. The mix is beautiful! There are good spoiler detectives here and some that apparently have sadly left, but being objective is the strength and the key. I like a lot of what your "GUT" says and I must say, we all will watch the special on CBS to learn things we didn't. I know we will see things that will change our outlook and dare I say, potentially revise the "GUT?" BTW, I love those books and movies! But they too have been foundations to many other "scripts." What I like the most might be the theme of trust and how people can be manipulated into doing or thinking things they normally might not do or think. The conditions change so thoughts and actions change. It's only natural.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 02:22 PM (EST)
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11. "Merely a spider" |
Thanks, Siebured. An idea that I have posted on other threads is that we have read too much into the spider imagery. I think all MB was trying to convey was that Jerri was trying to snare Colby in her web, NOT that she was a black widow. He never used a picture of a black widow; with its distinctive markings, we would have recognized it. MB merely used a spider; our fevered imaginations transformed it into the black widow idea.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-16-01, 04:32 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: Merely a spider" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 04:34 PM (EST)MB did say "JERRI'S PLAYING THE ROLE OF LIKE THE BLACK WIDOW..." see post <http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/913.shtml> I'm not convinced that it means anything , but he DID say it...
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Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings
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03-18-01, 02:17 AM (EST)
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39. "RE: Thanks" |
That black widow reference continues to confuse me. I don't know whether I should conclude that Jerri will do one last detrimental act before she leaves or that such imagery was really referring to her pre-merger actions.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 06:57 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT") Response" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 08:27 AM (EST)Good stuff, Aya. Let me try to address some of your issues: 1. Pictures: I've never taken much stock in the pictures because they can be taken any time, edited any way, and we only have MB's *sincere* word as to what they mean. But I have no argument with your theory on them. 2. Tina's hunger: I agree, as I've put Tina in the top 3 myself. 3. Alicia/Jerri: I agree, and I think Jerri is gone fairly soon. I'll be posting an update to my "Prediction to the end" soon and will comment on this further (how's THAT for a tease?  ) 4. Amber/Jerri: You make a good point about Amber. I noticed on E8 that she and Colby were playing backgammon, also in their "night chat" Colby hugged Amber warmly before giving Jerri a "hug your sister" type hug. Maybe a) an attraction between Colby and Amber develops, making J.R. Jerri jealous, or maybe b) Amber "black widows" Jerri, as I'll talk about in my upcoming update. 4a. Combining 3 & 4 above: Alicia did not attack Jerri on camera. Might be editing, but maybe Alicia and Jerri were forming some friendship even before getting voted off. Alicia DID slam Amber after the RC. Maybe after the show was over, Jerri's friendship with Alicia, coupled with Amber and Colby's attraction/friendship, caused something of a cooling between Amber and Jerri.
Edit: Alicia also hugged Jerri when Jerri won the RC. They seem to be forming a genuine friendship there.
5. More good points about Amber. Could mean anything, but we'll take it as a hypothesis that she's #2 and run with it. Other aftershowtaping hypotheses later.
6. Mad Dog's friends: I may be wrong, but I'm not putting as much stock in this as in other things. 7. Flood: MB has been setting a flood up... notice in E8 how they kept showing an angle that runs right up the dry creek bed. I almost expected to see a flood come right down that pike at any moment. Game logic won't be broken, however, I have Jerri pegged to go soon, anyway. 8. Rodger's parties: That's intuitive, but who knows, he might be having a few more parties. Rodger DID get lots of face time last episode, but so did Lis and Alicia as Kuchas on the way out. More on this later. 9. Herrings: Even taking these two as total, total red herrings, I can still work down to Lis and Amber as #1 and #2, and since Alicia is gone, then an Alicia/Rodger absence is certainly possible at this time. Maybe a wash? (pun with dry creek bed intended). The three gals and a guy/chef has already been a hypothesis of mine, without having known about the picture at the time(!) 10. Keith: I can predict Keith on every episode myself. He's on the Jury if he isn't a contestant, so techically he'll be on every episode. Not much in this. 11. (my own) Nick's total absence and lack of face time. I was really thinking that he would go next or after Jerri, but I'm rethinking based on several things. But for now: a) If Nick has been sick with food poisoning then maybe MB decided not to show Nick puking frequently. Instead, MB looks at survivorblows.com and the polls and concentrates on J.R. Jerri. b) Nick and Colby might still have some secret alliance, Nick might still be a "mole". More later as information develops. As Matt Drudge says: "Developing."
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 02:33 PM (EST)
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12. "Amber and Colby" |
Dawg, I've wondered about this myself, although I didn't include it in the GUT. MB showed us Colby rubbing Amber's back (the "family pet" thread discusses it), Colby playing backgammon with Amber, and Colby hugging Amber -- and I had the same reaction to his hugs of Amber and Jerri that you mention. It is obviously impossible for Colby to get any "alone time" with Amber, if he wants some, until Jerri is gone. Maybe that's a part of the motivation for dumping Jerri ... and also part of the subsequent breakup between Amber and Jerri. This is speculation, not evidence, but it seems very possible.
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lambity 50 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 03:35 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Amber and Colby" |
Oh man!!! I pray that this will indeed come true - Colby and Amber. Did anyone notice in Ep.5 when Amber and Colby got back with the tree mail with the maze IC message, Jerri had a funny look on her face when she was staring at them? There was just a little hint of jealousy, I think.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 07:41 AM (EST)
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6. "The meaning of Keith's victory" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 02:46 PM (EST)In the final twosome, Keith wins. Other than Amber's lack of publicity and Keith's constant publicity, which match the during-show public stances of Kelly and Richard, we don't know for sure what will happen in the final. But there is one big reason to believe that Keith won (other than the personal factors, such as his engagement two weeks ago and his pursuit of backers to reopen a Royal Oak restaurant that was his most famous venue). MB told the world on the Early Show that alliances weren't as important in S2 as they had been in S1. We have dismissed this as so much executive producer bluster. After all, wasn't the first thing we saw the formation of a big alliance in Ogakor and two smaller alliances is Kucha? Well, yes. And there were three members of Ogakor -- Target 1, Target 2, and Target 3 -- who were not part of that alliance. Targets 1 and 2 were voted off, but Target 3 found two members of the alliance who believed he should stay instead of one of the alliance leaders, and stay he has. Even though both tribes have voted as a bloc post-merger, it is true that they are not "alliances" in the sense of the Tagi. Keith (and maybe Nick) were the only two of the remaining contestants who did not immediately look for a Tagi-style alliance -- and, in Keith's case, it turned out to be a winning strategy.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 11:51 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: The meaning of Keith's victory" |
I have strongly been thinking that Keith wins this too. Alot of my feelings are because of how MB is showing Keith. MB has said we would be happy with the outcome. So he has to make the winner likeable. Mitchell, Jeff and some of the others have mentioned that Keith is very arrogant and bossy. But we are never really shown that side of Keith. We see Keith saying Tina is like a sister and saying to the camera that he is being caught up in the friendships and that makes it hard for him. Plus Keith hates Jerri and we identify with him. We want him to keep Jerri from winning. Keith has become our hero. That pose on top of the post when he won the immunity made him look like a victor. And yes I do see his face in the credits. I see Keith winning this thing. And next to Jerri I think Amber would be the easiest person for Keith to beat in the final vote. So Amber being in that credit photo leads me to believe she is in the final 2. I don't think Jerri makes the final 2. She is busy at the ranch making friends with Alicia. And I don't know if Keith could beat anyone else besides Amber. So I fully agree Keith and Amber are the final 2. And Keith is the winner. Amber could be lying low now because she loses the final vote and feels rather unliked by the group. Something happens between her and Jerri.
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Lisapooh 12664 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 12:55 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-16-01 AT 01:34 PM (EST)I think until something as thorough, comprehensive and logical comes along - we should go with our GUT. This not only makes sense but it is based on things we KNOW or can REASONABLY INFER. AK - i think you did a great job here. The strongest points of this being: 1. ALICIA and JERRI's friendship. They have to hook up at the ranch and soon for this frienship to happen. If Liz is there for Alicia or Amber is there for Jerri - then the these two wouldn't gravitate toward each toher. Maybe they started this friendship at camp - but it grew at the ranch. Had to. And something had to cause a rift in the Jerri/Amber friendship. Dunno what - but something had to happen. 2. the photos - the morphing of the two is CLASSIC MB. Something somewhat obvious when discovered, but elusive until it's detected. It's subject to so much interpretation but once y'all figured it out. It's blatant. Those pictures are Amber/Kelly and Rich/Keith. I have no doubt about it. I also felt that the screen time of these shots were slashed this week. It was quick before but it was gone in a heartbeat this week. Why? Too close for comfort maybe 3. Rodgers party. Intuition can be trusted. I can't think of a reason why he would be gone this week, and I wouldn't have picked him to go independent of his party, but I'm going with him now. Here's my two concerns - I read the article about the company that did the opening. They swear they don't know who won. They said they were still working on the sequence even after the show began airing. Something about this rubs me wrong. But I still thoroughly believe that y'all are right and it is the morphed photos. Secondly - Why did MB "give" us who Colby is siding with so early. It would have been more suspenseful to drag it out - leaving us wondering where Colby's sympathies lay just as J/A and K/T have to wonder. It seems odd that we got a definitive answer on this before we really needed to nless something else happens to upset the balance of power Excellent job guys. I'm still not ready to decide between the final two - Keith seems like the winner to me right now, but the dynamics can change a lot between now and then. But I think y'all have pieced together the most realiztic, plausible sequence of events based on the FACTS we have.
I forgot this earlier: What about the lockbox - I thought y'all were giving P2S's spoiler some credence - has that changed?
Edited cause I'm absent-minded.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 02:54 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Lockbox" |
Alicia was on Rosie today and Alicia said she does not know who wins. But she does know who the final 2 are.
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-01, 01:47 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
Why did MB "give"
>us who Colby is siding
>with so early. It would
>have been more suspenseful to
>drag it out - leaving
>us wondering where Colby's sympathies
>lay just as J/A and
>K/T have to wonder. It
>seems odd that we got
>a definitive answer on this
>before we really needed to
>nless something else happens to
>upset the balance of power
>I suspect that MB gave this to us for a reason - to explain, as he always does - the cause of a castaway's demise. Colby's playing a high risk game. If K/T and J/A don't find out he's playing them all, he could win the game and looks genius (as theorized in another thread). But if there's a leak, he's doomed. Now why would any of the other 4 leak, and who would leak to whom? I believe it's conceivable that once Jerri is gone, the dynamics will change and Amber - in a conversation with either Keith or Tina - will leak the promises Colby had made. I do believe Colby will not be able to keep the suspicion low for the remainder of the game and will be found out. There is simply not a strong enough dividing line between the J/A and K/T alliances. Remember, together they still make up the dominant alliance in the show.
Episode 13: "Three gals and a houseboy," starring Jerri, Amber, Liz and Nick. (Title remains, recasting inevitable).
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings
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03-25-01, 11:51 AM (EST)
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72. "RE: Colby in the final four" |
Yes, the previous votes are a factor, but I think that other factors may out-weigh this. K/T need to eliminate Colby's other option (either Jerri or Amber) and then they can choose who they want to go into the final 4 with. I'm suspecting that Colby will not last, finishing 5th or possibly 6th. Whoever's left (my guess Keith, Tina, Amber, Liz) will want to lose Colby before entering Final 4.
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5Foot3 81 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-01, 10:50 AM (EST)
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70. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
This is something I have been playing with for some time now. Can Amber really be as dumb as she is portrayed to be? I don't think so, she must have some sort of strategy besides being Jerri's shadow......
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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03-23-01, 01:02 PM (EST)
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71. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
We can hope Amber isn't that dumb and she has a strategy like Nick to just be quiet and unnoticed. But when Jerri was trying to guide her in the blind challenge she did seem rather dumb. Unlike Nick who guided his team very well. So....
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Remy617 30 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 03:59 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
On the subject of "Spider/Black Widow", could this not be simply a metaphor and not an exact prediction of something that is to happen? It is possible it is nothing more than paraphrasing the old, "what a tangled web we weave, when we practice to deceive".So, to date, who have been the big deceivers?:
Rodger: don't think so. The only person he may be deceiving is himself, believing that if he is feeding them, they won't boot him. Think again, Rodg. Nick: again, so far off the radar, he could be referred to as having "stealth" capbilities. CinderLizzie: last episode was the first blush we had of her really willing to get in the poo and try to mix it up with the attempt to isolate Jerri as "the vote". Still wouldn't think the reference is to her. I hope she is smart enough to realize that any "deals" she thought she had before with members of Oga are null and subject to further discussion. Once burned... Keith: My sense is that he is essentially right out front with what he thinks, WITH the people he trusts. We have seen nothing that I can recall that would sway me from believing this. I do feel for the guy, to have admitted now on national/international TV that he has cooked for two presidents, but was getting nervous at cooking rice (LMAO). "Tin-Man" Tina: If she only had a heart! People can say she did such a great thing "giving" Keith his first immunity. I say all she did was expose him for certain, when she threw in the towel. Consistently, Miss Doe-ree-toes, has been the player most likely to say one thing and do another. Time is ticking on this girl, I'm afraid. Colby: presently sitting in "the cat-bird seat". This could be a dangerous strategy should either of his two swing vote alliances shift with the wind and go with kucha. Our grinning boy could find himself on the short end of the stick. Still, I don't think he has been trying to set people up, etc., but he has surely been spittin' in the wind as he might say, bein' from Texas and all...at some point, you get some on you! He could be weaving here and not be able to get out of his own way. Jerri: Obviously the one we all would love to prove that spontaneous combustion is fact and not a theory. We started to distance ourselves when she began with the beef jerky fiasco and solidified itself, when she unrelentingly picked on Chef-boy Keith. Other than sniping at people and generally being a pain in the ass, convinced that what she thinks is absolute, has she really gone behind people's backs? The essense here is that a web spinner does so, in order to catch unwitting victims. I think everyone has seen the cut of this girl's cloth and have figured out what she is capable of. Amber: With the exception of being Jerri's collared and leashed lapdog, save for one extremely lucky throw of the 'rang, she is the original "Shrinking Violet". If anyone is cleverly lulling the other players with an unthreatening posture, it is little Amber. If we are lucky, The Sleeper will awaken and we get to see how smart this player really is. I think the fireworks are just starting. The grand puppeteer MB has too much at stake to let this be "another Kucha bites the dust", week after week. As far as I know, he has already signed for SurvivorIII and SurvivorIV. At the very least, he will need to get more creative with his editing than he already has.
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VOYEUR 165 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 04:08 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
EXACTLY! Amber will turn around and bite Jerri on the ass.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 06:46 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
AK, THANKS FOR ALL THE GOOD WORK ON THIS THREAD!! While I am not ready to embrace all of the it yet, the concept of a "Grand Unified Theory" as a composite of the ideas, rumors, spoilers, speculation, logic, etc. shared by all is wonderful. I would love to see you take on the role of administrator for this thread(I think you already have), much the way that Superman handles the voting thread, CJ the photographic evidence thread and Shakes the enforcement! It could be revised as new evidence is discovered and you could edit it and update it as we go along. It would be nice to have a place to go to see what the "party line" is a any point along the way. If you miss a few days and want to read the "Cliff Notes", this could serve as that summary... I don't know enough about the logistics of how this board physically works and maybe it would become to long and cumbersome, but I would love to have you try to keep it going to the final episode and periodically edited and brought back "to the top" as a reference thread. The organization of this board is the best of anything out there. I'm impressed by how well everyone seems to cooperate and how individual egos are self regulated. It makes it a pleasure to read. To all involved and all who participate, trying to maintain such high standards...Thanks!
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 07:44 PM (EST)
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26. "I Second the Nomination" |
The GUT Thread would be an excellent resource to keep active and well managed.
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 08:03 PM (EST)
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27. "Different Unified Theory... Colby in Final Two" |
First of all, I'd like to apoligize for starting a similar thread after you posted last night, AK... I started writing this at about 4:00pm PST, and then NCAA Bball came on, and I got sidetracked, and didn't get back to it until after 11pm... anyway, I didn't update my browser until after I had posted, so I'll move my other comments over to this thread, and then let the other thread die... if for no other reason than to play devil's advocate.
(I reworded a couple of things that made sense to me last night after midnite, but no longer make sense when I'm well-rested, and added a couple more spoilers to the final list.)
--------------------------------------------------
All of us are analyzing this from the point of what WE want to happen, but I'd like to take a second (or a little longer...) to analyze on a case-by-case basis what the PLAYERS want to happen:
They all want to win the million dollars. Don't believe for a second when Colby or Keith tell you that they'd rather stop Jerri from winning than win it themselves... especially if they can do BOTH. Here's what (I think) the players are thinking: First, the final IC in S1 was an endurance test, thus ANY PLAYER CAN WIN, if they get that far... in other words, no matter how strong or smart a player is, they will only have a 33% chance to win the final immunity.
KUCHA
---------------------
Kucha (and the rest of America) will continue to plead with any Ogakor to join with them in a vote to eliminate Jerri... and one by one, Kucha will join the jury... at least for Ep9 and 10...
AMBER and JERRI
---------------------
From the interviews in Ep8, we know that Amber and Jerri think that they have Colby in their pocket. Therefore, it makes since for them to try to hold the Oga alliance together. First, the Kucha go, then Tina and Keith, then if either Amber or Jerri wins the final IC, they vote out Colby and leave it up to the jury. Jerri is an actress, and is following the script from S1. She probably sees herself winning the whole thing by being the mastermind behind the alliance.
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in their opinion): 67% TINA and KEITH
---------------------
Colby's Ep8 interview tells us that he is more aligned with Tina and Keith than he is with Jerri and Amber, but he is playing the double agent. Presumably, Tina and Keith know this (He told Jerri and Amber he was double agent, when not true. Why wouldn't he tell Tina and Keith what his real plans are, if he's their real ally). Thus, the same logic I applied to Amber and Jerri applies to Tina and Keith
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in their opinion): 67% COLBY
---------------------
Truly in the best position in the game at this time... can coast for Ep8, when a Kucha gets voted out... Nick WILL NOT GO, based soley on the editing. Liz is the likely choice, due to her pleas with Oga to join the Kucha (but she wins immunity???), but Rodger will go Spoilers to suggest Rodger leaves next:
1) His comment: "it always rains in the outback"
2) Not in Helicopter 7 (If spoiler is true: Rodger is next to go, if it is a Red Herring: Rodger is next to go, so we'll all believe the Helicopter 4 Picture)
3) Source Code Theory (If spoiler is true: Liz won't go, if it is not true, Liz won't go yet, so we'll keep believing for another week)
4) Weight LossTheory
5) Rodger's "Last Chance" Party
6) Rodger was featured in last Ep (Wasn't Kel fishing to provide food right before the short-sighted Ogas voted him off...)
In the Ep10, another Kucha will bite the dust, if Nick is featured Ep9, it might be him, otherwise, say a long tearful goodbye to Liz... My pick is Elisabeth... she put too much heat on herself, and is too likable, but if she wins IC, bye Nick.
This leaves Colby, TinaKeith, JerriAmber, and one Kucha in the tribe of six. Colby has these options: OPTION A
------------
Colby sticks to his word and votes out Kucha... then allies with TinaKeith and votes out Jerri (America Cheers) and finally Amber. But then, he MUST win the IC, or the tighter TinaKeith alliance votes for him.
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in his opinion): 33% OPTION B
------------
Colby sticks to his word and votes out Kucha... then allies with JerriAmber and votes out Keith (Jerri Cheers, America vomits) and finally Tina. But then, he MUST win the IC, or the tighter JerriAmber alliance votes for him.
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in his opinion): 33% OPTION C
------------
This option works best if Nick is the final Kucha, although it will also work with Lovable Liz. I will refer to the Kucha as Nick, for simplicity... Colby approaches Nick (before the IC, so it won't be a factor), and offers him a chance to be in the final two... you've never seen an alliance form so fast... who wouldn't jump at the chance for a million... all Nick has to do is not say anything and vote exactly as Colby instructs.
In Ep11, Colby approaches Keith and tells him that Jerri and Amber have been trying to talk Colby into voting for Keith... he suggests that Keith and Tina vote for Jerri this week, to break up the alliance, and wait until next week to vote off Nick (esp if Nick wins IC). They agree, and Keith, Tina, and NICK vote for Jerri. COLBY, Amber, and Jerri vote for Nick. Jerri, who by now has enough previous votes to sink the Titanic, loses tie-breaker, to Nick, who has no votes. America cheers... so long Jerri!
In Ep12: Keith and Tina realize Colby lied... they both voted for Jerri, and Nick did not vote for himself, so Colby must have lied to them and voted for Nick, but... Amber, however is clueless... it seems that Colby has stuck with the original agreement to vote for Nick, but Nick and KeithTina have allied and voted for Jerri. Bitter, panicked, but willing to stick with her old ally, Amber and Colby "persuade" Nick to join them and vote for Keith (or Tina if Keith wins IC). Amber, Colby, and Nick vote Keith, who loses to Colby in a three-two vote. Leaving Tina as a target for the next council. In Ep13: Tina is voted out. Amber believes that she and Colby are allied and that it's Tina's fault that her master is gone, so she's voting for Tina. Nick is greatful to Colby for saving his butt, so he'll vote Tina, too. In Ep14: Immunity challenge decides the last two. If Colby wins IC, he takes Amber... he'll probably get all four of the Kucha Jury votes because Amber is hated and he took Nick to the last three... He gets no Ogakor votes, due to his backstabbing of Jerri, Keith, and Tina. Colby wins it all. If Amber wins IC, she takes her ally Colby (and not Nick, who got Jerri voted out in the first place)... Colby wins, based on same reasoning as above, plus Amber voted out the final Kucha... one more reason for them to be bitter and vote Colby. If Nick wins IC, he takes Colby, who saved him back in Ep11... it's a part of the original deal that they made. Nick wins, because all of the Ogakor know Colby stabbed them in the back, and because he gets every vote from Kucha. Colby makes some cheesy "Outwit was on the logo" speech, but it's only enough to get Tina's vote.
(NOTE: if Jerri wins IC in Ep11, just interchange Jerri and Keith's names and Amber and Tina's names, and this strategy still works for Colby. Final Three = Tina, Colby, Nick... Tina wins, unless Nick wins last IC.)
CHANCE AT FINAL TWO (in Colby's opinion): 100%
CHANCE AT $1 MILLION (in Colby's opinion): 67% Therefore, this is the best possible scenario for Colby, and, if he's smart, this is how it will all play out.
SPOILERS ACCOUNTED FOR (After the fact):
------------------------------------------------
1) Weight Loss Theory
2) All theories listed above about why Rodger will go next week. 3) CJ's Richard=Colby and Kelly=Amber vidcaps from opening credits. 4) Tina's hunger/baths when arriving home (she's fourth out). (Shakes' People Mag. Spoiler). 5) Alicia's Go Kucha comment (especially if Nick wins it all) 6) Jeff's "things get interesting" 7) Jerri is Black Widow (as she votes against Colby in the final vote, and tries to persuade the jury to do so, just like Susan last year) 8) Alicia-Jerri friendship (they go shopping, after getting to know each other on the jury) 9) Jerri-Amber friendship problems (maybe Amber says something at TC, or maybe, after being freed from her leash, she realizes that Jerri wasn't so great afterall) 10) Keith on every episode rumor (duh!!! he's at every TC on the jury... we've ALREADY got confirmation of this "spoiler"). 11) Source Code: If red herring, Elisabeth eliminated late enough to make us believe it a while, AND MB bonus (there's always a little bonus in his red herrings)... Amber really was one of the final two!! 12) Source Code: If real, Just replace Nick with Elisabeth; Liz wins final IC, votes off Colby and beats Amber in the final vote... opening credits: Amber w/ Liz's immunity headdress (means they are the last two) and colby in another shot (he is the one that got them there, and the last one voted out) 13) Mad Dog's friends include Rodger (next one off) but not Nick or Amber (last three) or Jerri (Who would be friends with Jerri!?!?!) or Liz (voted off in Ep10, after Mad Dog has left the ranch for a tour of Australia, or switch Liz and Nick for same analysis). (Not Mike either, but he's injured...) 14) MB's comment "alliances don't play a big role"... how many did Colby break to get here???... lied to Jerri and Amber, got Jerri voted off. Lied to Tina and Keith and joined forces with Amber. Lied to Nick at the end (if he wins IC) and takes Amber to the finals. (Also, I think that an argument could be made that alliances are not playing a role in the show right now at all: Keith/Tina are allies and Jerri/Amber are allies, but it is loyalty to the tribe (not a large alliance, like in S1) that is holding them together.) 15) Amber's lack of publicity... she's in the final three and likely in the final two. 16) I'm sure there are more, but my brain hurts, and since I derived this entire theory (with the exception of Rodger/Liz order of booting) without the aid of ANY spoilers, I'll stop now and leave you to decide if this has any merit.
----------------------------------------
Final Four: UCLA, Stanford, Ole Miss, and Michigan St.St.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 10:09 PM (EST)
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30. "Not so fast.." |
>
>SPOILERS ACCOUNTED FOR (After the fact):
>
>------------------------------------------------
>1) Weight Loss Theory
>
>2) All theories listed above about
>why Rodger will go next
>week.
.....Rodger was said to have lost significant weight, so wouldn't Rodger leaving in E#9 contradict that?
>4) Tina's hunger/baths when arriving home
>(she's fourth out). (Shakes'
>People Mag. Spoiler).
...this spolier only works if Tina is in final 2 or at worst, final 3...anything after that would give her enough time to recoup from the game (4th person out should be 5-8 days away from being home depending on how many days for post production)
>----------------------------------------
>Final Four: UCLA, Stanford, Ole Miss,
>and Michigan St.St.
Ole Miss looked like they would have trouble making the NIT final four in their game agaist Iona.....They got no shot against Arizona, if they even make it that far.
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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03-16-01, 10:35 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Not so fast.." |
Like I said, all of these spoilers were applied after the fact. Wed. Night, after the Ep, I sat down and tried to decide what I would do if I were each player and were trying to win the money. I tried to limit myself only to knowledge that MB has shown us each player possesses (Ie: Jerri does NOT know Colby plans to side with Tina and Keith against her). Colby was the only one with options... I think all the rest are locked into strategies (well, not the Kuchas... they're stuck being manipulated unless an Ogie comes to them.) Rodger going in Ep9 was based on spoilers as a whole, but he could easily go in Ep10 (and Liz in 9), or even become Colby's pawn, as I described. The Kucha can go in any order, and Colby still ends up with the same scenario. But I have this feeling based on evidence amassed at this site that Rodger is next.
>.....Rodger was said to have lost
>significant weight, so wouldn't Rodger
>leaving in E#9 contradict that?
But many of the other weight loss theories fit in w/ the player order presented... I was analyzing theories as a whole AFTER determining the boot order. I think there is lots of other evidence that Rodger goes now. >>4) Tina's hunger/baths when arriving home
>>(she's fourth out). (Shakes'
>>People Mag. Spoiler).
>...this spolier only works if Tina
>is in final 2 or
>at worst, final 3...anything after
>that would give her enough
>time to recoup from the
>game (4th person out should
>be 5-8 days away from
>being home depending on how
>many days for post production) Fourth-to-last person out gets booted day 39, and the game ends day 42. It takes a long time to recover from 39 days of starvation, especially if you throw in 22 hours of airplane food in the recovery period  . Once again, it fits a lot better than if she were booted next, for example. Perhaps she wins immunity in final four, and squeezes into the final three... Tina votes for Colby, Amber and Colby vote for Nick, Nick votes for Tina. Then, if Colby wins immunity, he votes off Tina and wins million; If Amber wins immunity, she votes off Tina and loses million; If Tina wins immunity, she votes of either Colby cause she's bitter or Amber cause she's bitter, and wins the million against either one of them. Also, if Jerri wins immunity in Ep11, Tina makes the final three (in Amber's place, as I noted in the original post). (NOTE: Tina's hunger spoiler works equally well for final 2 vs. final 3, as last two TC's are separated by only one day, and one day really isn't a difference with hunger of this magnitude.)
>Ole Miss looked like they would
>have trouble making the NIT
>final four in their game
>agaist Iona.....They got no shot
>against Arizona, if they even
>make it that far.
Had me scared, but I'm a big UCLA fan, so had to put UCLA in final four... had to pick Stanford, couldn't put three of four from the PAC-10, so went w/ second choice for that bracket... Gonna cost me in the long run... Go Bruins! ----------------------------------------
Final Four: UCLA, Stanford, Ole Miss, and Michigan St.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
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03-17-01, 01:07 PM (EST)
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33. "RE: Not so fast.." |
>Fourth-to-last person out gets booted day
>39, and the game ends
>day 42. It takes
>a long time to recover
>from 39 days of starvation,
>especially if you throw in
>22 hours of airplane food
>in the recovery period . ...I thought 4th to last person leaves on day 36, Day 39 is for 3rd place and then Day 42 for the winner. Leaving on the 36th day would still give Tina 6-9 days to fully recover (including post prodution) which would be plenty of time....therefore, the People Magazine spoiler must be INCORRECT for your theory to work, not the other way around.
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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings
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03-18-01, 06:20 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: Not so fast.." |
This is spoiler gives a pretty good clue that she's late into the game, but how late is still a good question. Personally, I know that traveling makes me feel tired, hungry and I usually feel the need for a long bath after really long trips. (maybe it's a female thing?) But, I think she makes it to the final 3 if not the final two if I'm going with my GUT. Maralyn stated that she didn't know Tina had voted for her on the Rosie show, which doesn't mean a whole lot other than that Tina is closed mouthed about what happened on the show with her other castmates.... OR, maybe she doesn't want to talk about it with anyone b/c she goes far enough into the game that it might just be better not to talk about it with anyone at all so as not to give away any potential spoiler information concerning where she ends up in the show?
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brain 29 desperate attention whore postings
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03-18-01, 05:04 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Different Unified Theory... Colby in Final Two" |
>SPOILERS ACCOUNTED FOR (After the fact):
>10) Keith on every episode rumor
>(duh!!! he's at every TC
>on the jury... we've ALREADY
>got confirmation of this "spoiler"). Check the original article from Ted Casablanca. http://www.eonline.com/Gossip/Awful/Archive2001/010301d.html "This particular pastry whispered that Keith's featured on every ep, meaning he makes it to the final rounds." It doesn't say that Keith was "on every episode". Well, actually it does. But as my "Introduction to Interpreting Scripture" professor liked to say "Context is King!". What it says that keith was "Featured on every episode" After seeing the first survivor, does anyone really think that the jury members are featured? Seriously. And don't anyone come back with a "the pan to and show the jury at tribal council, so you could say that they are featured." So the question becomes, Sleeeve and anyone else, "Do you believe this particular spoiler?" Because if you do then Keith makes it to at least the final three. And I really would be interested in what you think about how things would have to play out for that to happen. Brain
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
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03-18-01, 05:44 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Different Unified Theory... Colby in Final Two" |
Personally, I take any "spoiler" that originates from "a knowing source." With a grain of salt.Without any more information on this spoiler, I'd say leave it on the back burner, but if anything else comes along to support it, don't forget it's there. I've seen "spoilers" on this and other boards that basically say that each of the survivors wins it, and all of them claim to be from a source w/ inside info. The only thing that makes this particular spoiler stand out, IMO, is the fact that it has been propagated by several media outlets. Doesn't necessarily mean it's true (Gervase-X from last year), but lends some slight amount of credibility to it. ----------------------------------------
Final Four: UCLA, Stanford, Ole Miss, and Michigan St.
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brain 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-19-01, 00:57 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Different Unified Theory... Colby in Final Two" |
I feel the same way. (although I'm hoping it's true, I kind of like Keith. Must be the fact that, deep down, I always wanted to be a chef)The thing that frustrates me is that so many people have mis-quoted this "spoiler" in trying to develop some theory as to what happens. I just want to make sure that if anyone is using it, then they use it correctly. If you believe it, then Keith makes the final 3. You could make a case for a fourth place finish and I wouldn't scream too much. If you don't then anything can happen. Man, you have to love this game =) Brain
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-19-01, 01:25 AM (EST)
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45. "Reply to brain" |
>I feel the same way. (although I'm hoping it's true, I
>kind of like Keith. Must be the fact that,
>deep down, I always wanted to be a chef)For me, the irony is that I DON'T like Keith. Must be the fact that he was a chef at restaurants I couldn't afford when I lived in metro Detroit. >The thing that frustrates me is that so many people have
>mis-quoted this "spoiler" in trying to develop some theory as
>to what happens. I certainly did, because I had forgotten its origin with Ted Casablanca on E! I agree; the spoiler can only mean that Keith makes the Final Three ... IF we assign ANY value to it. >Man, you have to love this game =) ...or be obsessed... *******
Final four: 1st Keith, 2nd Amber, 3rd Tina, 4th Colby
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brain 29 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-20-01, 00:20 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Reply to brain" |
>>The thing that frustrates me is that so many people have
>>mis-quoted this "spoiler" in trying to develop some theory as
>>to what happens.
>
>I certainly did, because I had
>forgotten its origin with Ted
>Casablanca on E! I
>agree; the spoiler can only
>mean that Keith makes the
>Final Three ... IF we
>assign ANY value to it. Then this becomes the $.64 question. Do we trust Teddy boy or not. I didn't get hooked on this narcotic of choice until the ep were Gervase got the boot, so I missed a lot the stuff that went on in my favorite game (Us vs. MB). How reliable was Ted last year, if he dug anything up? Of course if we put a lot of faith in the first part of the GUT (i.e. Keith and Amber's pictures in the opening) then it really doesn't matter. You end up in the same conclusions about Keith, you've just taken a different path to get there.
>>Man, you have to love this game =)
>
>...or be obsessed...
Can I get an "Amen" from the congregation. Brain PS. By the way, AK, great job on putting the GUT together. It'll be fun to see how closely it plays out to what you have proposed. And the only thing that will determine that is the IC's. Colby's too smart to let K/T or J/A run around unchecked until it's too late
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-23-01, 05:11 AM (EST)
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68. "Ted Casablanca and Rodger" |
One more Ted Casablanca "spoiler" (?) from his March 1 "Tea with Ted" chat:http://www.eonline.com/Gossip/Tea/Trans/010301a.html "From gossipaholic: So, can you give us a clue as to who the Survivor: The Australian Outback winner will be? You mentioned that Keith may be in the final running. Who else?" "Ted: Let's put it this way: I doubt the old-geezer representation on the show will be making it as far as it did in the first installment." Again, it's hard to know if Ted has any real info, but IF we give any value to this, Rodger is gone soon.
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sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-21-01, 00:08 AM (EST)
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61. "RE: Different Unified Theory... Colby in Final Two" |
I appreciate your comments, but as I noted, the final Kucha doesn't really matter. I think that Rodger is the most likely target for the next Ep, but even if it were Liz or Nick, the theory could still play out. Also, I have posted a similar theory that states Jerri will be the next one out, here:
http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/1012.shtml#8I think, however, that I have been unclear about the purpose of this post... I originally began this post because I was seeing lots of "Tina and Keith will defect to vote out Jerri because they said they care more about stopping her than winning" threads... I moved my analysis to this post, because it took about 7 hours for me to type it (I got sidetracked for about 6 or so...) and didn't bother to reload and see that AK had started another thread with the goal, like in mine, to try to figure out how the entire game might play out... at this point in the game, I honestly believe that each survivor is looking to the end game... they need to put themselves in the best position possible to win the mil, and each will do everything they think is necessary to get there. In posting this, I was trying to figure out who, if anyone, was willing to defect, at what time, and why. What I tried to do was put myself in the shoes of each of the contestants, and see what my options were, based on the limited knowledge of the game that I (as that contestant) possessed. Then, I applied the spoilers, mostly out of curiosity. There are a lot of things that my theory does NOT take into account, and one of the big ones is Colby's ability to lie, and whether or not the others believe it... I did not mean to imply that this is how I see the game playing out at this point, but I did mean to imply that this could be how Colby sees the game playing out... Thus, we should watch for Colby to attempt to carry out some sort of plan (this one, or something similar) to improve his standing, and attempt to put himself into the finals. Whether or not it succeeds is another matter entirely, but I WAS interested to see that when I applied the spoilers after the fact, many of them were valid... I'm trying to be open to all theories, and I'm certainly NOT locked into this one... I just wanted to throw it out there for people to consider. The more info we have, the better chance of beating MB at his own game! ----------------------------------------
Final Four: UCLA, Stanford, Ole Miss, and Michigan St.
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skierdude10 114 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-17-01, 02:19 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
Switch the order, and you might just have the correct order.
I thnk that the order is Rodger, Jerri, colby, nick,, liz, tina, keith, AMBER IS THE WINNER!
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-19-01, 04:39 AM (EST)
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48. "Some Questions About Order, Ayak" |
I'm with you on the order of boots except for some minor points:1) I personally think it's two Kuchas in EP9 and EP10 and then Jerri in EP11 for the strategic reasons I stated before... MB will milk the we-hate-Jerri story line for those two more episodes and watch for Amber to be get more face time so that she can take over the role of Oga-byotch. 2) I am curious as to why you think Rodger goes before Nick. Is it solely the Roger party size? I think another reason could be that Rodger possibly tells Jerri 'I told you so' about the coming camp flood and she pushes for his departure... Colby will convince Tina and Keith to let Jerri dictate the next two Kucha bootees to keep 'Jerri's RADAR' from going off about the Colby/Keith/Tina alliance. Jerri will have the primary input on the next two Oga votes, so whoever goes must get Jerri's attention some how. 3) In EP14 is it really neccessary for Amber to win immunity against Tina and Keith? In simple terms of who Keith or Tina would want to face in the final two vote, it seems that they would both choose Amber. My personal theory, in support of why the headress appears in the credits, is that Amber wins immunity in the episode in which Liz gets voted off. It just makes for a stronger linkage between the owner of the immunity headress (Liz) and the person who 'causes' Liz's demise (Amber). Watch for MB to strongly foreshadow an Amber departure on the episode that Liz gets booted. Amber will, indeed, grab immunity twice but in EP12/13 vice EP13/14. As you have said, it's starting to feel like we are starting to gain a slight edge on MB. I think that close analysis of what MB chooses for the dominant narrative in the next few episodes, including (if not especially) EP8.5 'The Best of...' will be of extreme importance in the spoiler department. The narrative is the key...
IceCat
Roger, Nick, Jerri, Liz, Colby, Tina, Amber, Keith
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-20-01, 03:26 AM (EST)
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51. "RE: GUT Theory" |
So much well thought intricate work'd being done here it makes my brain spin following it all. Much of it seems possible and even likely. I have a couple thoughts nagging at me I want to share. I like to try and imagine what I would do in their place.One: The closer the Ogakor sub-alliances get to their goal, the more they'll think about what it's like to compete against their chosen allies, for immunity and with the jury (of which 4 out of 7 might well be Kuchas who've already voted against Jerri.
It's possible MB shows us Colby's position at this stage because he decides his best shot at winning is not to go into Fianl Three against Tina and Keith at the end, both of whom are serious immunity competitors and not unpopular with Kuchas.
Jerri and Amber might seem weaker to Colby and definitely unpopular. He might think that he can get immunity away from Amber/Jerri but that if he loses in a round with Tina and Keith he would, the one with immunity would vote him off. He may feel he has a Final 3 suballiance with Amber and with Jerri. I would like to think Colby stays allied with the better people and maybe he does, but he keeps saying he only plays to win. Tina and Keith also have to decide whether they want to count on Colby's swing vote to put them in the Final 3, and what it will be like going against Colby. Tina, Rodger, and Lis have the Christian compatibility going, and Keith and Rodger have been doing some bonding. T, K, L, and R could ally 4 against 3 (if Nick's gone in Ep.9) and start booting Ogawhores, which would make them popular with Kucha jury. Neither Tina nor Keith are likely to get jury support from Jerri and Amber, so no need to treat them nicely. Against this option--2 K's to to O's could make a tie-breaker that Keith would likely lose, unless he won immunity. Lis and Rodger would obviously take this alliance if offered. Keith might feel safer with Colby, or he might feel cocky about immunity, having won twice to date. I don't see Jerri and Amber with any Kucha options; the personalities remaining aren't compatible. These 2 have to believe in the final Ogawhore 5/final 3 with Colby, deluded or not. I would like to see something more interesting happen than 5 Ogawhores at the end, but I have no convictions at this point. As for the morphed pictures: I'm not any more convinced that MB would show us the winners disguised than that he'd show us disguised red herrings. He knows people have a lot of technology to help spoilers slow down and analyze video. It's not as if the shot is labelled, Final Two, and he can be accused of dishonesty (that would hurt him!) if the images aren't significant. Maybe there's an aboriginal challenge resembling the "mud" challenge in S1 and it provides good images. Maybe Lis lets Amber try on her headdress as they play dress-up/Barbies together (I mean back-gaming), and MB went to town with the possible teaser. Maybe it means Amber's in the F2. Speaking of morphing and this thread's reference to one of my very favorite SF stories, "Who Goes There?"--in which the alien life form could morph its tissue to completely simulate a human
it had absorbed: one of its big themes was human loyalty to the team. If an alien was ordered to torch another alien, it would, so it could maintain its own masquerade as a "loyal" human and survive even a little longer. The aliens could imitate every human quality except self-sacrifice, and the final litmus test for human/alien was that even the individual alien cells would become little individuals that would betray their cellular alliance rather than sacrifice themselves for the larger organism. In other words, drops of alien blood would shrink from a hot needle and betray the larger body, whereas human blood would just lie there and fry once it was on its own.
Is there a Survivor moral to be drawn from this analogy?
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IceCat 17415 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-20-01, 06:59 AM (EST)
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53. "RE: GUT Theory" |
As the Oka tribe starts to move toward the point of cannibalism (its supply of tasty Kuchas nearing exhaustion), the idea of who to face at the final two vote becomes more of an issue if not THE issue.>Jerri and Amber might seem weaker to Colby and definitely
>unpopular. He might think that he can get immunity away from
>Amber/Jerri but that if he loses in a round with Tina and Keith
>he would, the one with immunity would vote him off. In each case that is correct. Colby would absolutely require immunity during the final three to get to the final two. I believe that this logic can be taken back even further. Not only are unpopular people a 'harvestable resource' to be taken into the final two, but the popular people are an unwanted liability. Colby will have great difficulty even making it into the final four as anyone in Ogas would have at least some trouble against Colby in a final two vote. Colby knows that he cannot go against either the Keith/Tina or Jerri/Amber sub-alliances in the final three unless he wishes to be in a must-win-immunity scenario. Immunity challenges are less about brute strength and more about indurance/skill/luck and not about strength (Colby has not shone in the ICs). It is strategically advantageous for Colby to break down one of the two sub-alliances (once the Oga-Kucha balance allows in EP11). As 'harvestable' resources go, the best crop of unpopular people is the Jerri/Amber sub-alliance. To face both of them in a final three scenario is a must-win-scenario as the two 'prom queens' know that the only way that either of them could possibly win the final two vote is against the other. As far as someone else harvesting one of them as a potential final two opponent, Amber would be the better choice. Not because she is less likeable than Jerri for the final two but because she is more easily malleable in the steps leading up to the final two. A scenario where Amber is lead off to slaughter is far more likely than one including Jerri. As far as Amber's fate during a final two vote... against virtually anyone left in the tribe, Amber would probably only get one jury vote - Jerri's. As far as everyone else is concerned Amber has been seen as Jerri's pawn and could win the vote only if she faced Jerri herself - an unlikely prospect. >I don't see Jerri and Amber with any Kucha options; the
>personalities remaining aren't compatible. These 2 have to
>believe in the final Ogawhore 5/final 3 with Colby, deluded or
>not. I agree entirely. Jerri and Amber have only one option - Colby. Colby on the other hand knows that he cannot afford to hit the final three with Dr. Evil-B and Mini-B. There will be no shortage of votes to eliminate Jerri when the time comes. Leaving a freshly harvested and tamed Amber ready to be taken to the final two. Colby's popularity will be his downfall, however as the pressure to vote out likeable people begins to amount into the final four, Colby will seen as a major threat. The Keith/Tina alliance will hold and Colby will no doubt align himself with Amber in response. If Colby fails to win the IC, he is gone. A 2-2 tie between Keith and Colby (the two with the most prior votes) would see Colby sent packing. The potential for Amber to turn on Colby is there as well if she wins immunity and suddenly displays some strategic self awareness. The pressure to send likeable people packing will be at its highest when the final three of Tina/Keith/Amber reach tribal council. For each person the only vote that makes sense is to vote out the person who is most popular with the jury. For Keith and Amber they would have less chance of winning if they faced Tina in the final four. Tina can only proceed if she wins immunity. The Amber/Keith final scenario unfolds in the final episode. It's a no brainer when it comes to the final vote as Amber gets Jerri's vote and most of the others go to Keith (some votes go to a previously unknown contestant named 'Chad' who's apparently rather well endowed).  >As for the morphed pictures... I think the over-all scenario unfolds rather naturally and that my references to CJs morphing pics are just an interesting speculation on possible MB hints. They are not submitted as key points in support of the argument. It's kind of like admitting a passing interest in tarot without making stock picks with it. >Speaking of morphing and this thread's reference to one of my
>very favorite SF stories, "Who Goes There?"... blood would
>shrink from a hot needle and betray the larger body, whereas
>human blood would just lie there and fry once it was on its own.
>Is there a Survivor moral to be drawn from this analogy The analogy is entirely applicable and the blood imagery is especially so! None of these people is in this to see someone else win the million. An excellent literary reference, Outfrontgirl! ... and on a literary note, we must remember that the narrative that MB lays out is usually in support of where he wishes to take the viewer and what the 'lesson for the day' is supposed to be. Watch for the Jerri-Hate-Machine to be whipped up into a mighty frenzy over the next few episodes. When she finally goes in EP11, the effect will be positively cathartic. Not so cathartic, though, that the audience won't scream with blood lust again when Amber makes her way towards the final two. The story unfolds...
IceCat
Roger, Nick, Jerri, Liz, Colby, Tina, Amber, Keith
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-20-01, 11:24 AM (EST)
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54. "To IceCat and Outfrontgirl" |
I can't really disagree with any of the alternatives you present. It is entirely possible that Jerri lasts until E11, and (in my view) she probably would have done so without the flood. Personally, I think Colby would beat anyone in a final two, so I'm not sure he needs Amber as an opponent ... but he definitely needs her as an ally in E13, so that he can take the biggest threat (Keith) out.It's ironic how Jerri's personality has limited her options now that her tribe is on the verge of winning. Even though Mitchell's talk confirms that Benedict Tina is the biggest backstabber in the Outback, Tina has a straight shot to the final four. For all of the great "black widow" theories we spun involving Jerri (and perhaps Amber), it's obvious that she doesn't have the ability to execute any of them. Finally, Outfrontgirl, I'm impressed that you are also a fan of John W. Campbell Jr.'s story (I had his middle initial wrong in my original post -- don't know how I did that!). Campbell's story is "hard" SF, in which ideas are more important than characters ... and I agree with the analogies from it to Survivor that you two have drawn. One thing we haven't talked about much are the jury votes. Right now this is sheer speculation. It's sort of interesting that Nick is such a cipher, because we don't know how he is going to vote in a final between Keith and Amber. We can count Rodger, Elisabeth and Tina as sure votes for Keith. Depending on her anger about getting booted, Jerri and her new friend Alicia could be votes for Amber. Colby is unknown, but he could be ticked off about Keith choosing Tina over him in E13. That would leave Nick, who is a COMPLETE blank at this point (but I say will choose the accomplished chef over the administrative assistant). It's fun to guess, but we'll need three more episodes to make sense of it. Oh, I want to make a point about the morphed images before I end. MB made a BIG point of gloating in S1 about how he placed an obvious clue in the opening (the quick Richard image) and no one figured it out. I think MB did it again to prove his superiority to us poor spoiler-seekers (and, hey, if it wasn't for CJ continuing to raise the point, he probably would have succeeded). Now that we have figured the images and their significance out (and it is certainly possible, as you suggest, IceCat, that Amber's immunity is the proximate cause of Lislis's departure), it's time for him to plant a red herring in the opening credits -- along the lines of last year's doctored final four picture -- to go with the other red herrings out there (the "source code" and the "Edina helicopter flyovers"). I wonder what we'll get?
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Lockescythe 52 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-20-01, 03:38 AM (EST)
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52. "Keith every episode" |
Well i think this is great evidence BUT....
Keith being on the jury would mean he is shown every episode also.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-20-01, 10:20 PM (EST)
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55. "One thing we can all agree on........" |
......Benedict Tina might very well be the smartest person playing this game right now. She has proved time and time again that she knows when and where to make her move.....let's look at each vote of Ogakor and her role.
KEL: Tina has Kel convinced that she is alligned with him and that they will vote Jerri off, while at the same time she is also alligned with Scerri's kids from day 1. So even before The Colbster could say the word "sub-alliance" BT was in 2 alliances before the first vote. By veing involved with both alliances, Tina assured herself of being the safest person at the first TC, plus she was able to walk into the first TC already knowing what was going to happen. On top of that, notice the fact that when she stabs someone in the back, it is ALWAYS a fatal blow, that person does not survive the next vote, therefore no revenge factor.
MadDOG: Same as above, BT KNEW who was going to be voted off and had that person convinced that she was on her side...once again she was the safest person at that TC and once again she stabbed someone in the back with a fatal blow.
BITCHELL: After reading Bitchell's USD speech, it now looks like BT masterminded the Bitchell vote on the way to TC....BT showed just how cold and calculated she can be when she gave Bitchell a chance to survive in exchange for a vote against Lamber....Bitchell relented and BT immediately gave him the "I knew it was you Fredo" look......the fact that she was able to complete change the vote around on THE WAY TO TC is pretty amazing. Once again, she was the safest persom at TC since EVERYONE in her tribe thought she was in their voting bloc. the only difference was that this time she stabbed some people in the back who are still around (Jerri and Lamber), but it was a move that had to be made given the Kucha advantage at the time...plus by doing so she had insulated herself from Scerri and Lamber by alligning with KKK and the Colbster.
So, now that we can all agree that Tina 100% knows how to play this game as well as anyone, I think we can all agree that absolutely has to know what a dumb and risky move it would be to eliminate Scerri at this point in the game...it would be too easy for Lamber to allign with Kucha and pick off Keith or Colby in a tie breaker. No matter how much she hates Scerri, she KNOWS that she can't whack he for at least one more week.
I think there is a good chance Scerri goes in week #10 b/c you can make a case for it being a good move by BT..here is the logic (as we have seen it posted by several people on this board):
Stick with Ogakor = guaranteed final 5 and then HOPE that Colby stick with you and KKK, even though it would PROBABLY be smarter for colby to go with J/A as opposed to K/T b/c I think he would LOSE to both K/T in a final two scenario (notice all the footage of KKK and BT bonding with Kucha..where is Colby's bonding scenes???) BT is smart, she has to be thinking about this and putting herself in Colby's shoes to try and figure out what he might do...when she does she'll figure out the same thing we did, and that is sticking w/ Ogakore most likely means 5th or 4th place. Therefore, why not ditch the ogakor's and allign w/ the remaining two Kucha...what would happen in that scenairo..well, a guaranteed final 4 with a 2-2 loyalty split...KKK would most likely be the leading vote carrier given his 3 vote advantage at this point, so he would be most vulnerable in the final four vote, but on the flipside, KKK would also be by far the strongest and most likely to win any phsyical challenge....even with the disadvantage in the 2-2 vote, at least they have a chance at the final two which is more than I can say for the other scenario.
So, in summary I think we can all agree that Tina is VERY SMART, and that a very smart person would NOT dump Scerri in E#9, but probably would in E#10.
Whew, feels good to vent in a constructive way.
BTW, I'm out of town for tomorrow till Sunday (going to Orlando for a buddy's wedding) so I won't be around to help you anylyze the spoiler value of MadDog and Bitchell singing "She'll be coming around the mountain"...but, I'm gonna tape it and wehn I come home I'll put take a look and if it totally doesn't suck, I'll whip up a half-assed summary of a half-assed episode.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-20-01, 10:59 PM (EST)
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56. "Tina the Double-Crossing Guard" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-20-01 AT 11:06 PM (EST)shakes, doesn't it feel refreshing to get away from all the recycled posts for even a few minutes? Despite the fact that the only thing phonier than Tina's bust is her friendship, I totally agree with shakes' point. Tina is BY FAR the best game player in Barramundi, and she is well aware of the opportunity for double-cross. Remember in S1 when everyone commented about Kelly's obvious attempt to become friends with the Pagong to get their votes in the jury? How come NO ONE is commenting on Tina's equally obvious attempt to buy Kucha friendship? Because MB has edited the episodes differently, to make Door-eet-toes Tina seems like a nice religious hick. But she may well have the biggest secret in Ogakor. We saw Jerri take out Kel. We didn't see Tina take out Mitchell. How did this scene play out? One possibility is that TINA AND KEITH WERE NOT AN ALLIANCE IN E4 -- TINA AND COLBY WERE! Tina knew Keith was going to vote for Mitchell again. She knew Colby didn't want to take out Keith. So she proposed taking out Amber instead. Mitch wouldn't bite. Then she proposed taking out Jerri (I don't know if she really had Colby's vote for this). Mitch still wouldn't bite. Had Mitch gone along, either Jerri or Amber would have gone out on a 3 (Mitchell, Tina and Colby's votes)- 2 (Jerri and Amber's votes for Keith)-1 (Keith's vote for Mitchell) vote. Note that if Tina had Keith and Colby's vote to take out Jerri, she wouldn't have needed Mitchell's, since Jerri would have lost a tiebreak to anyone. Conclusion: at most, Tina only had one vote in her pocket. Let's say it was Colby's. When Mitchell wouldn't go along, he had to become the target so that Tina and Colby could achieve a three-three tie by voting along with Keith's vote. If the REAL suballiance in Ogakor is NOT Keith and Tina but is instead COLBY and Tina, my projected endgame becomes easier to figure. Colby would have no interest in trying to "break up" Keith-Tina-Rodger-Liz, because Tina is HIS ally. He and Tina (along with Keith) take out Jerri only when they can do it on their own, in E10, without having to let anyone else know (the same 3-vote plurality maneuver that Tina wanted to pull in E4: 3 votes for Jerri from C/T/K, 2 votes for a Kucha from J/A, 2 votes for an Ogakor (perhaps Jerri, but it doesn't matter) from Kucha. Picturing Tina as the truly Machiavellian member of Ogakor (and Colby's real partner) also could explain how Colby gets endplayed. In a Keith-Tina-Amber-Colby final four, Colby wouldn't be thinking of it as 2 against 2, with himself as the loser in a tiebreak. Instead, he would think of it as 3 against 1, with Keith as odd man out if he lost the IC, and Amber as second choice if Keith won immunity. And then, like Mitchell learning Colby's vote, Colby gets to find that BT has voted for HIM, figuring that he was the only one she couldn't beat in the final vote. Once again, BT would have struck a fatal blow.
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-21-01, 00:06 AM (EST)
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60. "RE: Tina the Double-Crossing Guard" |
First, I agree Tina makes the final two. If she didn't, she'd have more than three days to bathe, but a 22 hour flight is tiring and many people (I've done it) would want a relaxing bath, shower, or even whirlpool. (I love my whirlpool!)I find it interesting that Tina has done some "chilling" things and has escaped "detection" because of the others infighting. She blows (pukes) the eating challenge and isn't voted off even though she states she is the target (sly move knowing Kel is going so she looks "innocent"). She backstabs Kel, Maralyn, and some would say Mitchell. She is joining in the Jerri rice bashing to stay with the flow and also alerting Kucha. Yet, she declines Elisabeth's "come over to our side" talk. Meanwhile, she has sided with Keith in the "poor baby" row boat having felt the slings and arrows of Jerri at least twice personally. She further endears herself to Keith by handing him immunity. All along, having zero votes against her. And, she is a top notch racketball player and that involves strategy too as well as fitness. The woman is playing this game very well.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-01, 07:31 AM (EST)
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62. "RE: Tina the Double-Crossing Guard" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-21-01 AT 07:35 AM (EST)Aya,
This is some of the most sound analysis I have seen on this board. But, following your theory that Tina is doing the "Kelly", wouldn't it make GREAT political capital for Tina if she helps boot Jerri in Ep 9? To wit: By telling the Kuchas she will vote with them for Jerri, she has their liking. By telling Keith she'll vote with him and the Kuchas to wax Jerri, she cements his "loyalty". She tells Colby (truthfully) that voting for Jerri will avoid a) Colby getting caught playing "both sides" of Ogakor and b) will eliminate the possibility of Jerri truly defecting to Kucha (Jerri defecting being the only thing Jerri could do to survive right about now IMHO). For everyone: While some have said it makes no sense to vote Jerri off in Ep. 9, I have to ask them to look at it from another angle: How does it make sense for anyone to KEEP Jerri at this point? Yes, I've read y'all's excellent points, but consider this: It doesn't help Kucha to keep Jerri, they'll take any Ogie being waxed. It doesn't help Keith, he's stressed and has actually stated he'd rather assure Jerri lose than he (Keith) wins (yeah, like he's gonna make that choice over $1 million, but he did say it) and Keith knows that Jerri will never be his ally. It doesn't make sense for Colby to keep Jerri as she might realize he's playing her like a Stradivarius (but not giving her the pickle tickle she's craving from him) (note: yes, it makes sense for Colby to keep Jerri in that she has more votes than him, but that really doesnt' come into play now does it?). Amber. Ah, Amber. Is she starting to realize that being Jerri's Pal is not good for her health? And last of all, Tina. As I stated above, BT gets a lot of political capital by pouncing on an opportunity that's already there in the first place. BTW, you (Aya) and I agree totally that in an all-Ogakor Final Four, Colby gets the surprise wax job. Edited for spelling and clarification.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-21-01, 11:42 AM (EST)
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63. "RE: Tina the Double-Crossing Guard" |
I still think the smart thing for Tina, etc. would be to get rid of Jerri now. What if she pulls an immunity run like Kelly did? If they wait a week or two before voting off Jerri it could be too late. She could win immunity twice in a row. Keith has done it. Then they are stuck with Jerri. Nobody but Amber trusts her. She could ruin it for all of them. I don't believe Jerri could ever win it. She is too disliked. But she could knock them out of getting to the final and just take Amber with her.
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-20-01, 11:51 PM (EST)
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59. "RE: One thing we can all agree on........" |
Krautboy, I read your post, but I disagree w/ your assertion that it is smarter for Tina to whack Jerri in E#9 as opposed to E#10.
In your scenario she whacks Jerri and then picks and chooses between K/C/A or joining with Kucha...you say that sheis in a good position because she can choose which alliance to go with as the all important swing vote...but, one problem with your scenario.....if she joins w/ Kucha she is the guaranteed no better than 4th place barring immunity.....maybe she could become better closer to Rodger and Lizliz than Nick is and end up in third, but make no mistake that Rodger and Lizliz hold the cards in that scenario.
If she in turn alligns with KKK. Colbby and Lamber then she is totally screwed cause they are all pissed at her for stabbing them in the back on the pervious vote...once again, she'll get punished by being tossed 4th place.
By waiting until E#10 when Kucha only has 2 people, she can bring KKK with her under the belief that Cloby is gonna side with J/A in the final 5....KKK would be more than willing to go with and then they have a final 4 alliance with one immunity victory away from the final 2..
It has to be E#10, it's the smart move, and as we all know, she is definitely smart. Tina making the right move is the one consistent thing we have seen on this show, why should it stop now???
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-21-01, 12:11 PM (EST)
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64. "RE: One thing we can all agree on........" |
I agree with Shakes. E10 is better. One thing the Ogakors tend to agree on is not letting Kucha back in the game, especially with three members. But any of these scenarios hinges on Colby who appears to be with Keith and Tina. I don't think Colby will side with Jerri any more.The question is, does Elisabeth see the Jerri link as the way to go and then, can she convince her Colby isn't on her side? That is the key for Kucha at least. And, for Jerri to get past the final four, she will have to win immunity as much as twice at least. If she stays in Ogakor, she will have to win it as much as three times. (Providing they don't want Jerri in the final). But, with Keith, Tina, Jerri, Amber, Colby, Rodger, Elisabeth, and Nick (one of the K/C/T booted, say Keith), Tina and Colby will want to go to the Kuchas to plead their case against Jerri.
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idiotcowboy 1135 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-22-01, 02:00 AM (EST)
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65. "UN-Spoiler Spoiler" |
I've been really impressed with the comments and discussions and for the
most part civility I've seen on this board, and decided it might be fun to
join in. The "GUT" theory thread is espeically appealing, although I must
admit I'm not fully on board with it yet (the Tina stuff at the end, combined
with the Mitchell interview is quite compelling though... so maybe...). In
my mind the theory starts to falter when it takes too much of what's been
shown into account. Anyone who has watched the show must know
by now that we are only shown the things that Mark Burnett wants us
to see. He treats this "game" like a cross between a soap opera and a
mystery novel, building suspense by selectively editing the show with clues
that meet the storyline he wants and the misdirection he wishes to lead us
into. So in order to see what's coming next I think you have to look not
only at what's shown but clues as to what hasn't been. I'm not saying this
is necessarily a new idea, many threads discuss around this but I don't think
it has been labled or necessarily applied to many of the existing theories.So... how do you go about evaluating things not shown? Mind you this is
not an exact science, but I think there are ways. For one just like in the
individual shows if you are being pushed in one direction for too long or
too hard, go running in the opposite direction. Apply the theory to the entire
season as opposed to a single episode and you see kucha (unified)/ogre
(chaos) in reality equals kucha (GONE)/oger (WINS). If kucha was
winning at this point do you think it would have been editied the way it
was? I personally think we would have seen a whole lot more kucha
infighting (it was obviously there, but certainly not as visible as we were led
to believe ogre's was). I also think there are the obvious ommissions like
the "who's next" stratgy sessions that are obviously happening sometime,
but unlikely to be seen on camera for TC suspence purposes. So I think
you need to weigh the obvious ommission much more greatly than the
shown alliances. Meaning I have never seen Colby talk alliance directly
with anyone other than Jerri/Amber... obviously he has one with
Tina/Keith... but it is never seen... hence the Colby/Tina/Keith alliance
is probably stronger. I'm sure there are other things as well that would fit
into this Un-Spoiler Spoiler vein but this should be enough to at least start
a discussion on the topic if only to say how full of crap it is. "The grass may not be greener on the other side of the fence, but it is on the other side"
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Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-25-01, 07:42 PM (EST)
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73. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
My Grand Unification Theory:First, the Ogies continue knocking out the remaining Kuchas until it gets down to 5 Ogies to 1 Kucha then and only then do they vote off Jerri. At 5-2, if they voted off Jerri the Ogie majority would be down to 4-2. Amber, Jerri's Girl Friday would suddenly find herself without her closest ally, cold and alone. I think her only option then would be to approach the last two Kuchas and form an alliance with them. They would have few options but to accept her overtures, plus, those braids are hard to resist. That would set up a 3-3 tie at the next TC and since Keith and Colby have a lot of previous votes, one of them would be history. The new alliance would then have a 3-2 edge in the next TC. Based on this analysis, I think the Ogies will not vote off Jerri until it is 5 Ogies to 1 Kucha. Then Amber would gain nothing by defecting. Another argument for Jerri staying for now is the info we got from Mitchell's recent Q&A session at some college in his home state. He revealed that in Ep 4, the long standing alliance of Jerri, Amber, Mitchell, Tina and colby was going to vote out Keith but that Tina approached him first to try and vote off Amber butr he refused. Then she wanted him to vote off Jerri but he again refused. She then went to talk to Colby. It is logical to assume that she tried the same ploy, asked him first to vote off Amber. He must have refused because that is not what happened. She then asked him to vote out Jerri and again, he must have refused but we all knmow now that between the two of them, they came up with a third candidate, Mitchell. What does this tell us? In Ep 4 we also heard Jerri and Colby discuss alliances when he went pig hunting and she followed. Colby said "I'll make the same deal right now, me, you and amber right to the end" and then he stuck out his hand. Jerri just ignored him. It sounded to me like he had made this offer before and she had refused him. Mithcell said that he and Jerri hooked up almost immediately. A 5 person alliance is a little too large, it has to turn on itself even before the final four. I think that Jerri had a sub-alliance with Amber and Mitchell and that subsequently, when the alliance added Colby and Tina, Colby was smart enough to realize that a 5 person alliance would only get you so far. I think he tried to start his own sub-alliance with Jerri and Amber but they wouldn't commit (they couldn't because they already were in a 3 person sub-alliance with Mitchell). This is why Colby wouldn't bite when Tina tried to get him to vote off either Amber or Jerri (instead of Keith) in Ep. 4 but he was willing to vote out Mitchell despite being in a 5 person alliance with him. From all this, I have some serious doubts that Colby is in a strong alliance with Keith and Tina. All his claims that he is lying to Jerri and she deserves to be booted because of the way she treats people reminds me of all Jeff's carping out by the tree: purely for the sake of the cameras. Besides, I think colby would see himself much better off in a final three with Amber and Jerri than with Keith and Tina. Tina runs marathons and competes in mini-triathlons. She was also a swimming instructor. Keith has shown his endurance and strength in a number of challenges. We know colby respects Keith's abilities when it comes to challenges, it is the reason why he broke with his alliance to vote out Mitchell to begin with. On the other hand, Jerri hasn't displayed strength, intelligence or endurance, just the willingness to be confrontational. Amber, well...er...uh, she's just Amber ya know? I wouldn't want to be against her in front of the jury but on challenges, I don't think she is as big a threat as Keith or Tina. As a result, I think Colby wants to be in a final three with those two and hopefully end up in the final two against Jerri who shouldn't be able to win a jury vote against a dead skunk. This all means that Jerri may be around a little while longer than we'd like. I'm thinking that Colby's plan is to use the 5 person Ogie alliance to take out the last three Kuchas and then to use a sub-aliance with Amber and Jerri to knock out Tina and Keith. He then will have to win an IC or Amber and Jerri will vote him out. If he does, he votes for Amber, she is out and he wins the million in a 6-1 jury vote against Jerri. Now, given all that, what are Tina and Keith likely to do? I think they are stupid enough to trust their entire future to Colby. If they weren't, there is a way they can steal control away from the Texas Swing Vote Champ. When they get down to 5-2, if Keith and Tina defected and formed an alliance with the two Kuchas left who would be desperate by then, they would have a 4-3 edge and could vote off Colby, Amber and Jerri at their leisure. Another option would be to include Colby, vote out Amber and Jerri and then the three Ogies finally clean out the remaining Kuchas and so it would be Colby, Tina and Keith in the final three. This is dangerous however. If Colby knows what is up he might be able to muck things up. He couldn't really say no. If Tina and Keith really have the last two Kucha's sowed up, they could tell colby that he either defects with them or he is the first bootee of the new alliance. An angry Colby would be dangerous though. In the next episode he could point out to the Kuchas that Keith and Tina are using them so they should jump ship and ally with him. That scenario goes something like this, K and T defect to the last Kucha when it is 5-2. They approach Colby and he jumps ship with them. They vote out Jerri and Amber leaving K/T/C/and two unkown Kucha. Colby becomes a swing vote again and could either stick with K & T or switch to the last Kuchas, either way he is in the final three. This way K & T steal control away from Colby for a little while. I think they should just get rid of him. They should defect at 5-2 and then remove Colby, Amber and Jerri and take their chances with a final 4 that includes two Kuchas. Once Jerri is gone, Keith takes on the Richard hatch role as the guy everyone wants in the final two with them, figuring nobody likes him. That is what they should do, IMHO, but this is what I think they will end up doing:
Ep 9:
Nick is voted out along tribal lines, 5 Ogies and only 2 Kucha left.
Ep 10:
The Ogie alliance holds for another week as Roger is voted out
5-2. Ep 11:
With only one Kucha left, the Ogies can vote Jerri off with impunity or get rid of Lis, the last Kucha. Lis wins immunity and plans to vote for Jerri. Worried about Colby, Keith and Tina
vote for Jerri as well because with Lis' vote they have a tie at worst and Jerri loses on prior votes. Even if Colby doesn't come along, Keith and Tina are safe. Jerri heads for the ranch and is the only woman there besides Alicia, they bond and plan shopping trip. Ep 12:
We now have Keith, Tina, Lis, Colby and Amber. Keith and Tina stick together and convince Lis that Colby is a major threat and they should oust him while they can. Colby is out in a 3-2 vote. Jerri and Alicia are still the only two women back at the ranch. Ep 13: The final four has 3 women and 1 man. It includes Elisabeth. It also includes Tina. Several spoilers are thereby confirmed.
Not wanting to get into a jury with Lis who will corner all the Kucha votes and probably Jerri's, the other three knock her out.
Lis goes back to the ranch and prays a lot with Roger, no time to bond with Jerri and Alicia. Ep 14: Tina wins IC and figures she has a better chance of winning the jury vote if "the Irritable Gourmet" is her opponent. Amber is ousted but spends only a little time at the ranch because she heads back for the the final jury. She has no time to rearrange her schedule so that she can join the now infamous Jerri/Alicia Shopfest. Final: Tina in a landslide: Jerri-Tina
Roger-Tina
Lis-Tina
Amber-Tina
Alicia-Tina because Jerri tells her to.
Nick-Keith, just to make it look close
Colby-Keith because MB hints that he should so vote looks close. Whew!
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Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-25-01, 09:43 PM (EST)
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75. "RE: Grand Unified Theory ("GUT")" |
Colby may be more likely to vote Keith because he relates to him more than to Tina. In Ep. 4, Colby left the tent citing "estrogen overload" from Tina's ranting. Subsequently, he ended up chatting with Keith.
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