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"Could it be that the rest is predictable?"
DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-14-01, 04:24 PM (EST)
 
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"Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
This is why this series of Survivor is making my head hurt!As MUCH as I want Jerri off, and someone from Kucha to win...unless it's Colby (he's just hot), when I look at this thing logically-based on the definition that we saw last week-it looks almost predictable. Tonight Ogawhore will vote off the strongest Kuchies depending upon immunity. So Alicia--Nick--Rodger--Liz. Then they start picking off themselves.
Depending on immunity, the vote for the 5th place person would problaby come down to Jerri and Keith.
Amber and Jerri vote for Keith.
Keith votes for Jerri.
Wild cards would be Colby and Tina. My guess is that they would both vote Jerri off. Final four -- Amber (she's my second least favorite), Colby, Tina, and Keith. I so desperately want soemthing REALLY interesting to happen to keep it from being predictable. Could all these "spoilers" that we keep finding and the comments that "things get interesting" just be red herring to keep us from guessing the obvious? b/c it just gets easy to guess? Argh. **** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
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castaway 168 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-14-01, 04:59 PM (EST)
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1. "WHEN has SII been predictable since the first 2 episodes?" |
This is what I've been thinking too... it would all fall into place too easily then. Sometimes the logical just doesn't work, because too many little things can happen that screw up the assumed process. I can't make up my mind on who to vote for yet, because I still keep thinking about that black widow teaser. Jerri still hasn't attacked her own & I'm wondering if it might not be pretty soon. Could she possibly align this early with the Kuchas & take out one of her own?
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-16-01, 01:31 AM (EST)
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25. "Spiders" |
I don't think there was any black widow imagery involved at all, and I feel foolish for having gone along with it. I think MB was just trying to show Jerri snaring Colby in her web. But, unlike most flies, he broke free.
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-01, 05:03 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
I don't think it's as easy as every Kucha goes one-by-one. Your message contains the reason: who is the 5th Ogie? Jerri. She'll be looking for ways to protect herself from Keith while trying to get him voted off, and she'll probably be willing to keep a few Kucha around to help her do it.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-01, 05:18 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
I don't think it will be predictable because there is always that IC. And the last Kucha could win that a couple times in a row. Plus we know Jerri and Keith are not 100% confident that they will last in an all-Ogakor grouping. Colby also has to be worrying about having the most votes of Ogakor. The best thing Kucha can do now is cause doubt among the Ogakors. Make them think they are the least liked of their tribe.
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wildcamper 38 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-14-01, 05:48 PM (EST)
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4. "MB said so" |
MB has said he has put out many clues as well as red herrings..
so some of them are bount to be true.. we just dont know which
ones yet so im staying with what i think is true until proven
wrong
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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03-14-01, 09:27 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
Well seeing what happened tonight, I think it could very well happen that Kucha gets eliminated....the defectors would have to be Keith and Tina. Jerri is absolutely clueless that her and Amber are toast once it's down to 5 and I really don't see Keith or Tina telling her this.Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire. Kimmi! Get back here! 
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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-14-01, 09:32 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
If Jerri wasn't aware before that TC vote, she is now! How in the world is she going to survive the next TC if she doesn't win Immunity?
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Remy617 30 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-15-01, 03:24 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
I thing Jerri is definitely vulnerable, but it has nothing to do with the TC vote. What I saw reinforced to her that the Ogas are still voting as a tribe. The reality is that I want to be believe they will get her, but again, she has no way to know this. The vote should have given her a false sense of security if nothing else. So, I say she gets the stick, but soon and I hope it comes as a complete and utter surprise. I think the look on her face would be something to cherish.
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AtlantaFatMike 4 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 10:18 AM (EST)
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12. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
I agree. This is so simple.Last night, we watched a whole show build up for a Jerri boot. Did it happen? No. Now all the millions of viewers are stuck to their TVs, waiting for a backstab or a betrayal to happen. Last night gave us the proof we need to solve this thing. The show went according to plan, period. Ogakor will stick together until all the Kuchas are gone. Then Keith/Colby/Tina will vote off Jerri and then Amber, then it will be those three to the end. I look for Tina to win in a final vote between her and the more abrasive Keith. MB was simply disappointed in the way this thing turned out. He was expecting a great big cesspool or reality with backstabs, but instead got thousands of hours of formula voting. To get the ratings, money, and seal the franchise for the next 100 years, MB edited this whole thing to look 10 times more exciting than it will ever be. He took ONLY the juciest moments to fill in the regular plot. Not to prevent spoilers, but to add spice to an otherwise drab show. Believe me when I tell you, every pic, plot twist, chat slip, interview slip, Gervase X, and flight itenerary from now to May will be purely inconsequential. These people watched the first show. They know what it will take to win. Everything from this point on will be predictable.
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voncyanide 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 10:45 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
Hello all. Although I think that those of you that predict the consecutive demise of the Kuchas have valid arguments, I will go on record completely disagreeing with your conclusions.E-9 - unless Nick can win the IC, he's gone... he hasn't shown any ability to win anything... he's gone E-10 - this is where it gets really interestng. Most of you think that the Ogakor's will vote together despite the crack in their alliance. I disagree, and here is why. The mini-alliances are: T/K, J/A, E/R and C.
At this point we have to assume that logic will prevail. Although both of the Ogakor mini-alliances will have guarantees from C that he'll vote with them, they would have to be stupid not to consider the alternatives. If they do, they will know that they are potentially in danger. I also don't believe that Colby is good enough to have both of those mini-alliances fully trusting him. As such, T/K and J/A will look for alternatives to them allying with C. The best alternative for both is to ally with E/R:
a) It gives them a total of 4 votes and hence guarantees them the final four.
b) It allows them to go into the final 4 in a 2-2 situation which means that ICs will decide the winner. E/R are obviously going to jump on any opportunity that will allow them not to share the faith of their fellow Kuchas. The only question that remains is which Ogakor mini-alliance will they choose. Based on everyone's hatred of Jerri, it seems logical that they will go with T/K. (I think that there is a possibility that T/K won't consider this as they may trust C more than J/A do. J knows she might be the first one voted off the final five (if all are Os) and she will definitely consider this strategy. So if J/A do, and T/K don't, E/R might have to go in with J/A.) I don't think C is smart enough to figure out this play in time and won't be able to prevent the inevitable. So in E-10: Jerri is voted out E-11 - Amber is gone
E-12 - Colby is gone Now it all depends on ICs. But we can give this a shot as well (although this will mostly be speculation).
Liz will have 6 total votes against (J/A/C in E-10 + J/C in E-11 + C in E-12)
Rodger will have 0 total votes against
Keith will have 2 total votes against
Tina will have 0 total votes against Everyone will know that Liz has votes against her and only Tina will know Keith has votes against him. Unless she can win IC, Liz is gone. This leaves T/K/R. R is gone unless he wins IC. T/K are left. T probably wins (in this scenario). To recap: Nick-Jerri-Amber-Colby, final 4 - Liz, Rodger, Tina,Keith
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voncyanide 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 10:47 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
Just to add to the above.If you're T/K (and especially K) in E-10 what future would you rather have: a. Ogakor final five where:
i. despite all the assurances, you can't be guaranteed a spot in the final four (after all you know that C voted with J/A before and that he is a loose cannon),
ii. people know you have votes against
iii. people are likely to be tough in the ICs (since none of the strong ones have been voted off) OR b. K/T/E/R final four, where:
i. you are guaranteed to be in the final four,
ii. only Tina knows for sure of votes against you,
iii. Liz and Rodger are presumably weaker in the ICs (since all the strong Kuchas have been voted off), and
iv. you know either Liz or Rodger will have a bunch of votes against them I think logic prevails, T/K choose option b and we go through the above described scenario.
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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 11:19 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
My frustration level was unbelievable after last night's show. That one was really predictable.After having read the thread through, here's where I think there COULD be a possible break for all of Jerri-haters. COLBY's one-on-one last night. My favorite quote for the evening..."yeah, I lied. I lied to Jerri's face. So, I lied to JERRI-I'm not losing any sleep over it." YOU GO COLBY. Based on this, I believe that he is firmly alligned with K/T. Colby said that JErri did not deserve to win this thing. Now, either they will vote straight down party lines until final 5, and then vote the ##### off, remains to be seen. I think that last night's vote was more individual strategy that anything. Alicia was a threat to each one individually, not as a team. Now that they have eliminated her, they have a clear 5 to 3 advantage. This is where they could COMFORTABLY strike against the evil one. My guess is that in E9, either Nick or Jerri go. It really seems that K/T and even C genuinely like Rodger and Liz. I think they'll keep them around a bit. I think too that it's highly possible that K/T will allign with R/L and get rid of Colby, making the final for Keith, Tina, Rodger and Liz. So that's my 2 cents worth right now.....
OH, by the way
I cannot stand Amber.  It's like President ##### and Vice-President ##### out there.
**** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
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occamsrazor 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 12:38 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
Barring strange immunity winners, I feel there is a good argument for a Colby/Jerri/Amber final three.Rationale:
Remember they are now in a free-for-all. The idea is not to be left with the most friendly and cozy group so you can all sit around chawing mushy rice. The idea is to vote so you are left with people worse than you so the others (the jury) won't want to vote for them. This means: - The Kucha pick-off continues until only Ogakor is left.
- Colby, the wildcard, realizes that when it gets down to the final group, Jerri and Amber are more disliked by the jury than Tina or Keith. So he aligns with Jerri and Amber. Once it gets down to those 3, it's just a matter of immunity for who ends up winning but Colby would have to think he has a better chance with Jerri and Amber then with Keith and Tina. And the Jerri/Amber and Keith/Tina alliances are too strong within themselves and too filled with animosity between them for there to be either a reasonable switch (Keith and Jerri helping to vote off Tina?!, nah) or for them to gang up on Colby.
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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 12:48 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
Colby, Tina, and Keith (and the Kuchies) have all said at some point something to the effect of "Jerri does not deserve to win." I hope that they are keeping mind too, that the longer you stay, the more money you win. You still get money. Debb got a couple of thousand, and it works up from there to the $100,000 then million. If they hate her enough, they may realize that and try to take away any extra money. Personally, I would hate to think that Jerri would win $100,000 just b/c she's the most easily beatable in a final 2. (Ditto for Amber).One of way of looking at it is "who do you like" -- then let them win more money. **** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-15-01, 01:01 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-15-01 AT 01:03 PM (EST)>I would hate to think that Jerri would win $100,000 just b/c she's the most easily beatable in a final 2. (Ditto for Amber). *** They won't. They'll be long gone before that! >One of way of looking at it is "who do you like" -- then let them win more money. *** Exactly - although that seems to be a "thrown to the wind" theory with Rich last year - but again, as many have pointed out here: Rich wasn't pure evil - he just knew how to play the game. Jerri is nasty, hateful, vain, and couldn't play the game if step-by-step instructions were glued to her forehead! But I think in this instance you're right - if by some snowball's chance in hell she makes the final two, she'd lose that million sure as the sun shines in the morning. My favorite quote from last night was Tina to Lis in regards to Jerri: "Don't worry - her time is coming soon." I love it! It cheers me up! 
**************************************
What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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03-15-01, 10:20 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
<<One of way of looking at it is "who do you like" -- then let them win more money>.Sorry, hun but I don't think this would happen.
It's more like "Who do you like? -- Then the jury probably loves them too" Unless, of course you're either Jerri or Amber.
^-^ Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire. Kimmi! Get back here!
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FunkyD 5 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-15-01, 01:10 PM (EST)
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20. "Re: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
The short answer to that question is "Most Likely", at least up until the final episode...I disagree with Colby being a free agent. He pretty much said last night that he was in with Tina and Keith. He is leading Jerri (and Amber) on down the primrose path because he still needs their votes (until after the next TC, 5 votes are still required to have an guaranteed majority). Admittedly, it's possible that Colby is lying to the camera, but I doubt it. As it stands now, there are 3 alliances among the remaining 8. You have the Kucha 3, the Keith/Tina/Colby troika, and then the Jerri/Amber twins. However, only the KTC troika realizes that this is the alignment, and they are going to capitalize on it. The Kucha 3 (Rodger/Elisabeth/Nick) are pretty much powerless on their own and need to align with someone from Ogakor. Unfortunately for them, they haven't realized that efforts to woo Keith, Tina, or COlby are going to be fruitless. Jerri and Amber are sitting ducks. Whether they realize it or not depends on how much they trust Colby, or gamble on defecting to the Kuchas. In either case, time is running out. There are 2 main reasons whey the KTC troika will NOT turn and vote Jerri out just yet: 1) Jerri needs Colby's support just to hang on. It is pretty obvious that the Kuchas perceive her as weak and will be reluctant to ally with her, unless they figure out that they aren't going to shake anyone out of the KTC troika. 2) Bloc voting is important now because the ousted eventually will determine the winner. If someone is booted by a voting bloc, it will lessen the likelihood of the bootee taking it personally and extracting revenge at the final TC. If Colby can keep Jerri convinced that the Ogakor tribe is united, this will allow the troika to finish off the Kuchas before they have to deal with Jerri and Amber. The fewer Kuchas remaining, the less of a threat they are to the troika should Jerri and Amber bolt. As for the Kuchas, it is obvious that they will have to shake someone out of Ogakor. Unfortunately, they are working on the wrong alliance. The KTC troika let their dislike of Jerri show enough to encourage the Kuchas to avoid her, when in fact, Jerri and Amber hold to key to any of the Kuchas' making it into the final 4. Slick work by the troika. How I think it will shake out... Ep 9
Given this, I think that Elisabeth should be the next target. Nick is the weakest of the 3 and hasn't shown much ability to either win ICs, or ally with others. Thus he can be left to Ep 11 to get the heave-ho. Elisabeth is too likable, and quickly caught on to at least part of the internal politics of Ogakor. She needs to be disposed of before she can work on Jerri. If Elisabeth wins immunity, boot Rodger instead Ep 10
Pluck off Rodger (or Elisabeth if Rodger goes in Ep 9). If immunity blocks this, boot Nick. Ep 11
Boot Nick or the remaining Kucha, if immunity is a problem, then this is the time to vote off Jerri. This leaves 2 members outside the troika, which can dictate the outcome from here. Ep 12 & 13
Finish off the rest, be it Jerri, Amber (who shouldn't be voted of until after Jerri is gone), or whoever is left from Kucha. If immunity gets in the way, then the endgame strategy comes into play a little early. Ep 14
Time for the end. Keith and Tina will probably plan to dispose of Colby here as he will be the most likely candidate to win from among the 3 of them. Colby must win the IC here. If he does, he takes Tina in and he should win the prize. If not, say bye-bye to him. If the final is between Keith and Tina, then it's up for grabs. Comments?
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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-16-01, 12:19 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Could it be that the rest is predictable?" |
>Many people keep saying that they
>might breeak the alliance this
>next week. This will
>not happen, they need the
>advantage. plus why would
>you leave a Kucha to
>fight for the million with
>you?? Currently they have a 3 - 5 advantage. Getting rid of Jerri would give them 3 - 4. The vote for Alicia (and not Jerri) was an act of individual survival in a group effort. The Kucha's, including Alicia, knew that and seem to respect it. They're in a safe place to boot Jerri now. So Tina,
>Colby and Keith are playing
>the game right. They
>show the hate for Jerri,
>bond with the Kuchas and
>hope they will vote for
>them. I agree. Although I think they'll get rid of Jerri sooner than we think (at least I hope!) >
>I think it will be Nick
>or Lis next week. Nick or Jerri will go. Nick is the next obvious on the strength-o-meter, even though we never see him do anything. Maybe they'll get a brain and get the hoochie-mama off the show.
**** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
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p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
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