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SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-01, 10:25 PM (EST) "Predictions to the Very End..." I know y'all don't want too many threads on here, but I do want to post this before Wednesday's show and so make a total fool of myself, or perhaps be correct. If anyone wishes to know my lines of thinking or has a question, feel free to ask and I'll respond in this thread. Immunities can really wreck all this. I've tried to come up with alternative lines, but they are darn numerous. Theory 1 - Alicia wins immunity. Then the all-female theory comes into play. Spoilers that are validated are: 1) all-female (cameraman comment), 2) Tina goes deep into the game, 3) Source Code Theory is true, 4) Alicia and Jerri become friends, 5) Black Widow (is Lis in this case), 6) Alicia loyalty to Kucha remains intact (female loyalty into endgame, how do you write "Go Girls!" on a napkin?!?!). Nick => Colby => Rodger => Keith => Alicia => Jerri => Tina => Amber => Lis. If Colby wins immunity: Nick => Keith => Rodger => Colby => Alicia => Jerri => Tina => Amber => Lis. If Colby wins IC after Rodger going off, then it's tough to say, but I have to think Jerri loses on tiebreaks: Nick => Keith => Rodger => Jerri => Alicia/Colby IC Loser. From this point, Alicia must win every IC to stay in the game, so must Colby. Otherwise, it's the aforementioned Tina => Amber => Lis. Note: If Colby goes, it is 2 Kucha - 2 Ogakor, but at this stage it may not matter any longer. Theory 2 - Alicia voted off. Validated spoilers include: 1) Alicia and Jerri become friends (while eating chocolate sex substitues at Bootee Ranch), 2) Jerri can go shopping, 3) Tina goes deep into the game, 4) Source Code theory is true, 5) All-Female Finale (final 3), 6) Keith late in the game (from pictures), 7) Alicia loyalty to Kucha intact, 8) Ogakor stays up in numbers for a while. 9) Jerri is the black widow, possibly Amber if Jerri gets to Final 3. Alicia's voting off becomes Jerri's doom: Alicia => Jerri => Nick => Colby => Rodger => Keith => Tina => Amber => Lis. Jerri was unable to make alliances. But should she win immunity: Alicia => Nick => Jerri => Colby => Rodger => Keith => Tina => Amber => Lis. Jerri again unable to make alliances. But if Jerri wins a 2d Immunity: Alicia => Nick => Rodger => Jerri => Colby => Keith => Tina => Amber => Lis. Now here's where the fun begins: If Jerri should win a THIRD immunity: Alicia => Nick => Rodger => ??? At this point, one of two things happen (see B below for 2d thing): Alicia => Nick => Rodger => Colby => Keith => Jerri => Tina => Amber => Lis. Jerri continuing to win immunity, at this point the Source Code theory is blown: Alicia => Nick => Rodger => Colby => Keith => Tina => Amber or Lis IC Loser => Jerri => Amber or Lis IC Winner. (If Jerri wins final immunity, she's going to lose against whoever she's left with. POSSIBLY IC winner Amber might vote Jerri off in a deal so that Jerri can vote for her (Amber) in Final Jury, but that's a longshot that I don't believe either, but mention to round out the picture). After Colby's departure, if Keith wins immunity: Alicia => Nick => Rodger => Colby => Tina => Keith => Amber or Lis IC Loser => Jerri => Amber or Lis IC Winner. Again (after Tina this time), if Keith wins the talisman: Alicia => Nick => Rodger => Colby => Tina => Jerri => Amber or Lis IC Loser => Keith => Amber or Lis IC Winner. OR (on Jerri's 3d immunity) Alicia => Nick => Rodger => Amber or Lis (the other defecting to C/K/T). At this point, the Source Code theory is blown, the All Female theory is blown, but I think we can surmise this much: Jerri must win immunity throughout or be gone. Then the Lis/Amber leftover must win IC throughout or be gone. Then Keith must win or be gone. Then Colby. Keith and Colby may be reversed. Tina in the final two, either Colby or Keith with her OR Tina against Lis/Amber/Jerri winning ICs every time. In all cases, Tina would appear to win.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Predictions to the Very End... Play2Survive 03-12-01 1    RE: Predictions to the Very End... SurvivinDawg 03-12-01 2        RE: Predictions to the Very End... Play2Survive 03-12-01 3            RE: Predictions to the Very End... SurvivinDawg 03-13-01 5                RE: Predictions to the Very End... Play2Survive 03-13-01 7  RE: Predictions to the Very End...A... Krautboy 03-13-01 4    RE: Predictions to the Very End...A... SurvivinDawg 03-13-01 6        RE: Predictions to the Very End...A... Krautboy 03-13-01 8            RE: Predictions to the Very End...A... SurvivinDawg 03-13-01 9    RE: Predictions to the Very End...A... Kokoro 03-13-01 10

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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-12-01, 11:08 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Predictions to the Very End..." Thanks Dawg, for reviving my estrogen theory. (Although not mine alone I'm sure, support when I posted it was slight at best). I'm impressed with all the scenarios you spelled out. Personally, I have a hard time trusting my guesses past the current week. At any rate, I'm standing by my belief that the Survivor chicks will be special guests at Lilith Fair 2002. There is a lot of evidence to support the possibility, most of which you mentioned. I think that the loyalties these women have toward their tribes will be abandoned once the idea gets planted (probably by Jerri) that they work together. Even Liz will see a greater good in tossing away loyalty to Rodger to advance the cause. Here's where I'm a bit stumped. 1. Does Alicia go before or after pact is formed? I still am leaning toward believing Ogakor votes together in E8, and unless she wins Immunity, Alicia is gone. Also, if she wins immunity, Ogakor votes for Nick, the seed for the idea could be planted with the women up 5 to 3. If Alicia does leave this week, the women can still take the lead next week. With 4 women and 4 men, the women will win a tie breaker if they vote for Colby. 2. Which guy makes Final Four? I think a guy - either Nick or Keith - win the last immunity and make the final four. I don't have a lot to support this. Nick is supported by the MadDog 4 (Jerri, Liz, Amnber and Nick). I'm wondering if Nick might save himself by having a romance w/ one of the girls, which would support the romance theory. (BTW, I don't see a Liz/Colby thing happening. It's too far a character stretch for Liz). Keith sticking around is supported by the pics (but I'm not putting much weight in those.) I don't usually guess weeks in advance, but to follow your lead, if I were to map it out now here's how it would go: W8: Alica out W9: pact formed, Colby out. W10: Kieth W11: Rodger w12: Nick throws a wrench in scheme by winning immunity. Jerri convinces Amber and Liz to vote for Tina. Tina gone. Final Four: Nick, Amber, Jerri, Liz (MadDog4) Final Two: Amber, Liz Winner: Is there any difference?   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-01, 11:25 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Predictions to the Very End..." Some good ideas on your part, Play2Survive. I'm going with the All-Female Theory IF and ONLY IF Alicia wins immunity. If Alicia doesn't win immunity, she is the very logical candidate to go, and in fact, I will be predicting her demise in the upcoming vote (whenever Superman starts it). If Alicia wins immunity, Jerri can approach her and form the beginning of the Female Alliance (Jerri, Amber, Alicia). Once Nick is gone (next logical Kucha pick-off choice), then Jerri and Alicia can start their game. However, Jerri NEEDS Alicia in order for Jerri to survive. Once Alicia goes and Ogakor has the comfortable majority, then Jerri is the target unless she wins immunity. As my chart above shows, Jerri needs to win immunity almost every time except right after Colby's departure, where a possible alliance with Amber and Lis can keep her afloat for one round. Therefore, the All-Female Theory won't be in play. In a deliciously ironic twist of fate, winning Final Immunity means nothing for Jerri, as she'll be the loser against almost anyone in the Final Jury unless somebody does a very severe and public backstabbing that makes "J.R." Jerri look like a saint.   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-12-01, 11:55 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Predictions to the Very End..." >However, Jerri NEEDS Alicia in order >for Jerri to survive. >Once Alicia goes and Ogakor >has the comfortable majority, then >Jerri is the target unless >she wins immunity. We mostly agree. Where I differ is here. I don't think Jerri NEEDS Alicia, nor do I think she will need immunity. Here's why. If Alicia is gone, week 10 looks like this: Ogakor: Jerri, Amber, Colby, Tina, Keith Kucha: Liz, Nick, Rodger Women: Jerri, Amber, Tina, Liz Men: COlby Keith, Nick, Rodger Jerri will know she may be gone. In an effort to save her @$$, she will convince Amber that she will be in trouble too and that's it time to form an alliance with Tina and Liz. Liz will be easy to convince, because she knows that otherwise she is a sitting duck. Tina is tougher, but either Amber or Liz will convince Tina that she is better off with the girls. Okay, I know it's a longshot, but I think it could happen.   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-01, 06:28 AM (EST) 5. "RE: Predictions to the Very End..." The only problem (and one that I had to work around) was getting Tina to vote with Jerri under any circumstances while Ogakor had control. I showed in another thread that blatant blackmail was about the only way (Vote with us, Tina, or begone yoreself!). However, once the Female Pact is made, Tina would stick with it. If Tina thinks like you and me, she'll figure out that the all-girl alliance will get her into the Final Three. She's a treacherous wildcat, that Tina!   Top

Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-13-01, 09:55 AM (EST) 7. "RE: Predictions to the Very End..." Well Dawg, it's fun to speculate. We are mostly on the same page, which is cool because most people think my theory is wacked. I'm having trouble with Tina too. She's a big fat questionmark because she hasn't been consistent. She's voted with Jerri, against Jerri, she's kept loyalties and broken them. You're right that she's a tough cookie and might surprise a lot of people that don't take her seriously enough. There are only three current survivors that have 100% record of voting off the bootee: Keith, Colby and yes, TINA. Episode 13: "Final Four: Three Gals and a Houseboy" starring Jerri, Amber, Liz and Nick.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-13-01, 00:34 AM (EST) 4. "RE: Predictions to the Very End...And back again" Just pure speculation ,but you started it... Working backwards from two theories: EP15: Liz, Amber Source Code Theory, Final Two Female Theory EP14: Liz, Amber(Immunity), Colby(Bootee) Amber must decide between cute liz and a 4-3 Ogakor Jury or Colby and a 3-4 Kucha Jury. Decides to test the loyalty of the Ogakor... EP13: Liz, Amber, Colby(Immunity), Keith(Bootee) Aboriginal Final Four Photo Theory Australian aerial photo final four spoiler (Keith ,Colby,Amber and a blonde female:Tina or Liz?) EP12: Liz(Immunity), Amber, Keith, Colby, Tina(Bootee) EP11: Liz(Immunity), Amber, Keith, Colby, Tina, Jerri (Bootee) "Jerri's gotta go!" EP10: Nick(Bootee), Liz, Amber, Keith, Colby(Immunity), Tina, Jerri Australian aerial photography Final 7 Spoiler (No Rodger or Alicia) EP9: Rodger(Bootee), Nick(Immunity),Liz, Ogakor 5. Ogakorians make little effort in immunity Challenges because a Kucha goes regardless... EP8: Alicia(Bootee), Rodger, Nick(Immunity), Liz, Ogakor 5. As discussed in great detail, Nick wins immunity and Alicia is the logical Choice. Just one way for it to unfold with many of the theories and rumors intact...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-01, 06:35 AM (EST) 6. "RE: Predictions to the Very End...And back again" Good work, krautboy! Yes, I started it, and I'm delighted to see others adding to the fun and speculation. I have no problem with EPs 8-11. Where I start to differ is EP12. I do not see Tina goin, I would expect Colby or Keith to go in that one. Probably Colby, as an IC threat.   Top

Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest" 03-13-01, 10:22 AM (EST) 8. "RE: Predictions to the Very End...And back again" Colby and Keith couldn'y go in EP12 because there are too many theories and rumors that have them in the Final 4 (Aerial photo spoiler,and Aboriginal Four Photo analysis) That's why I had to work it backwards; to keep some of my own doubts out of the process. This is really a composite of other peoples theories and rumors, incorporating as many of them as possible and still getting to the end...   Top

SurvivinDawg 6816 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-13-01, 05:30 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Predictions to the Very End...And back again" I partially agree that if Alicia doesn't win immunity, Keith OR Colby could make the Final Four... but not both. I haven't been very strongly adherent to picture spoilers because it's hard to tell when these pictures were really taken, it's easy to doctor them, and we know what MB did with "Gervase X" in Survivor I. Even without the Source Code Theory, it looks like Tina is going deep into the game and that Lis and Amber will be around for most of it. One thing I had NOT read before today was about Jerri and JP having some sort of fling. That would be an indicator that Jerri made an early exit, which IMHO means that Alicia also is an early exit. Of course, Jerri and JP could have been carrying on BEFORE THE SURVIVOR II CASTAWAYS WERE PICKED, with JP introducing Jerri to MB.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-13-01, 07:23 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Predictions to the Very End...And back again" <<Australian aerial photo final four spoiler (Keith ,Colby,Amber and a blonde female:Tina or Liz?)>> Never seen this before....anyone care to post it? Ooooh watch out everyone there's a "crack" in the alliance. Yeah, maybe; If crack was slang for millionaire.   Top

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