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ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-11-01, 12:16 PM (EST) "Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" I think a few people on here are jumping the gun and overanalyzing things here...the problem last season was that everyone thought Pagong would somehow rebound and 2 members (Colleen and Gervase) would somehow make it into the Final Four...and ya know, I'm seeing things on here like the Final Four being 3 Ogakor's and 1 Kucha, 2 Ogakor's and 2 Kucha's, I think it's really rediculous. I also think we're not NEAR ready to look at who the winner will be, or who's in the Final Two...we need to cross one bridge at a time. Personally, I think we all ready know the Final Five, and it was determined by the last episode. Next to go (not neccisarly in this order) will be Alicia, Rodger, Liz, and Nick....yes, LIZ as much as I know some of you just LOVE and ADORE LIZ sometimes you have to look beyond personal perceptions. So that would leave the Final Five to be Colby, Amber, Jerri, Keith, and Tina. I'm open to anyone's opinion on this, but the example was set in the last episode people!!! Don't make the same mistake as we did last season....! Ugh. Okay, thanks for reading. Final Three: Jeff Probst, Mark Burnett, and a fat, greasy, smelly-@$$ pig.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! Annadad 03-11-01 1    RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! Kokoro 03-11-01 2    RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! lambity 03-12-01 17  RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! SurvivorBlows 03-11-01 3    RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! my0wn 03-11-01 4        RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! jtmorgan61 03-11-01 5        RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! are you kiddi... wolf1bh 03-11-01 6            RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! are you kiddi... ACPS65 03-11-01 7                RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! are you kiddi... wolf1bh 03-11-01 12    RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! Loree 03-11-01 8        RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! sleeeve 03-11-01 9            RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! Loree 03-11-01 10                RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! ACPS65 03-11-01 11  RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! IslandFever 03-12-01 13    RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! bergdogg 03-12-01 14        Everyone seems to be forgetting IC'... cowboyroo 03-12-01 15            RE: Ditching your own side Outfrontgirl 03-12-01 16                RE: Ditching your own side PepeLePew13 03-12-01 18

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Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-11-01, 01:16 PM (EST) 1. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" I think you are right that there is some wishful thinking going on here because a lot of people would rather see Kucha have a chance to fill some spots in the final four. Also, it would be pretty boring to just watch the Ogies knock off the Kuchas one by one for the next 4 freakin' weeks. It would be a lot more exciting if the Kuchas somehow got back in to it. I do think however that given the divisions among th Ogakor, it really makes sens for some defections to occur somewhere around Ep. 10. I think you are right on that for at least the next two weeks the Ogies are going to pull a Tagi and Pagong off the Kuchas. Which Kuchas? Who knows? The point is that there is no reason at all for anyone to defect from the Ogre alliance for the next two weeks. Right now, if the alliance holds, each alliance member is guaranteed a spot in the final 5. Let say Jerri defects this week to Kucha. That puts her into a 5 person majority only this time it includes 4 Kuchas. she is in no better shape than before she defected. Moreover, once she helps those 4 Kuchas vote off the other Ogies, she has to kow they will vote her right off leaving an all Kucha final four. There is no reason then for any Ogie to defect in Ep 8. In the Ep. 9 vote, a defection, assuming another K goes down in Ep. 8, would create a tie and right now Jerri, Keith and Colby are all vulnerable in tie-breaker situations. A fourth Ogie could also have tie breaker problems depending on who the Kuchas voted for in Ep. 9. With 4 of the 5 Ogies vulnerable in a tie breaker situation, I don't think they would risk a defection. Besides, once you defect and even if you are able to then vote off your former tribe mates, the Kuchas will drop you like a bad habit the second they no longer need you. In Ep10 however, I think it makes sense for Tina and Keith especially to defect over to the two Kuchas that would be left and by then, desperate enough to try anything to stay in the game. That would leave Jerri, Amber and Colbsterman on the wrong end of 4-3 vote. Tina and Keith would be assured of making the final four. I think that Amber, Colby and Jerri will end up being an alliance within an alliance and once all the Kuchas are gone they will toss Keith and Tina pronto. In the episode where Mitchell was toasted and Jerri's alliance bit the dust, Jerri went pig hunting with colby and in a heated discussion where Jerri was trying to keep Colby on her side, Colby offered an alliance between him, Amber and Jerri to last "raght ta tha end" She ignored his offer becasue, as we now know, she couldn't abandon Mitchell. I've already tried to analyze the situation in another post: http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/880.shtml I think it explains my logic in arguing for a Keith/Tina defection, maybe with colby along as well, in Ep 10. I'm not saying that this is what will happen but what I think Keith and Tina should do. If they do, it will be a Keith/Tina/unknown Kucha #1/unknown Kucha #2 final four. Drop a Kuch and add a dash of Colby if the Texan is smarter than he looks. This alliance will crash, just not yet.   Top

Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge" 03-11-01, 01:46 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" Okay the thing is, unless Jerri's completely stupid, or unless she becomes the sweetheart of Ogakor, she'd know that once 2 Kuchas are gone she could very easily be next. Unless Jerri manages to win immunity in ep9, this is really the only point I would see a defection happening as Keith-Tina-Colby would be happy 'till the end with Ogakor and Jerri 2 would do whatever Jerri 1 told her to. This is also half logical (Jerri's intellegence, Mad Dog 4) and half hopeful, though. "Oh my God! Meatball subs! I love those! Oh my God!" - "That skinny chick"'s most memorable line   Top

lambity 50 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-12-01, 07:44 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" >I think that Amber, Colby and >Jerri will end up being >an alliance within an alliance >and once all the Kuchas >are gone they will toss >Keith and Tina pronto. I very much agree with this. When they are down to the final 5, it will be in Colby's best interest to ally with the most dislikable tribemate, in case he reached the final 2, he will have a much better chance to win the game altogether with Jerri by his side. I would think that Amber, Jerri and Colby be the last 3, provided that Jerri doesn't try any tricks on Colby before that.   Top

SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-01, 02:25 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" Let's look at this logically -- if the game played out and Ogakor has gone in and picked Kucha off one by one for five weeks, and knowing the audience had seen the same done in the first series -- as an editor, what would you do? ....you'd do all you could in the first 6 episodes to make it look like Ogakor was a fragile group and anyone could break off at any time, wouldn't you? I'm not sure Ogakor is as fragile as MB is making them out to be -- if they did go in and wipe out Kucha, MB would have had little choice but to paint the of Ogakor that he did in the first six episodes -- keeping folks hoping for a Ogawhore traitor is the only thing that is going to keep the audience watching for the next several weeks, without that, there is no suspense until Ep11.   Top

my0wn 40 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-11-01, 03:44 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" ....you'd do all you could in the first 6 episodes to make it look like Ogakor was a fragile group and anyone could break off at any time, wouldn't you? Yes and I would also show Kucha was a tight knit little family so viewers would root for them, and hope they could come back sometime to win. I agree that logically Ogahos should vote all Kucha out one by one so their only hope is to win immunity every time to stay. I don't think Jerri should worry about being the first from her tribe to be voted out. I think Keith has a better chance of going first. Colby and Tina and Keith are smart enough to know their chances of winning are better if they are up against Jerri. It would only take one of them to vote with Jerri and Amber to ensure that they don't go. such as Jerri, Amber, and Colby vote Keith Keith and Tina vote Jerri (thinking Colby will as well, cause he lied to Jerri once about doing that with her) Tina would be next, then all Colby has to do is win immunity and he is assured the final 2. It could work the same way for Keith or Tina as well I just used Colby because he has already played both sides quite well.   Top

jtmorgan61 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square" 03-11-01, 04:01 PM (EST) 5. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" >Jerri, Amber, and Colby vote Keith >Keith and Tina vote Jerri (thinking Colby will as well, cause he lied to Jerri once about doing that with her) This is interesting, and it parallels a thought I had this morning and posted somewhere else. It seems relevant here so I'll post it here too. Say we get to an all Ogakor final 5; as your reasoning shows, more than likely one of KTC, who aren't a real tight alliance, would join with Jerri and Amber to dump the other two of KTC, figuring they can win final immunity and go against Jerri. The other two of KTC have to be looking this far ahead. Isn't it at least possible that they'll try to keep it from being an all-Ogakor final 5 for this very reason? (Not that I'm arguing any wacky candidates for this week; the last 1 or 2 kucha might figure into this equation.)   Top

wolf1bh 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-11-01, 04:02 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! are you kidding me acps?" aren't you the one who has been posting his final four and final three for weeks and weeks now? and you have the audacity to say we arent nearly ready to begin picking the winner? and ythe thought of a 3-1 or 2-2 final four is ridiculous? you don't think there is gonna be some jockeying for position and a defector in 3-4 weeks? i gotta disagree with most aspects of your post final 4 jerri, amber, colby, liz wolf   Top

ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-11-01, 04:11 PM (EST) 7. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! are you kidding me acps?" LAST EDITED ON 03-11-01 AT 04:13 PM (EST) > aren't you the one who >has been posting his final >four and final three for >weeks and weeks now? Yes. >you have the audacity to >say we arent nearly ready >to begin picking the winner? Yes. Not because my theory on the final four was wrong, but because it's too early in the game to jump to conclusions. >and ythe thought of a >3-1 or 2-2 final four >is ridiculous? Absolutely. The thought that Ogakor would gamble a solid voting block by keeping some and getting rid of a few of their own? That's absurb and stupid. you don't think >there is gonna be some >jockeying for position and a >defector in 3-4 weeks? No. > i >gotta disagree with most aspects >of your post Spectacular. >final 4 jerri, amber, colby, liz ...and when this, my dear friend, is proven wrong, I'll be here to shove it right in your face. Final Three: Jeff Probst, Mark Burnett, and a fat, greasy, smelly-@$$ pig.   Top

wolf1bh 38 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-11-01, 11:52 PM (EST) 12. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA! are you kidding me acps?" sorry dude i sounded like an asshole in my post about yours -i just had a bad day and shouldnt yell at others posts- but i still like the idea of someone breaking the voting block eventually - remember last years winner was a snake and thats what it will take ! go black widow wolf   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-01, 05:48 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" Okay if MB knows that it is a final 5 of all Ogakors then why didn't he make us happy about it? He could have made us like the Ogakor tribe more and dislike the Kuchas. Then most of us would have been happy to see Ogakor get rid of Kucha. We could have been delighted to see the turnaround after seeing Ogakor down so many members. And we could still hate Jerri and wait for the team to turn on her. I really think that one or two Kuchas are going to be in the final 4. I don't think he'd want a repeat of last time when we didn't like the Tagis and they were the final 5. If it turned out again to be one team in the final 5 I think he would want us to like them more. But that is just my opinion.   Top

sleeeve 3456 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity" 03-11-01, 05:57 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" LAST EDITED ON 03-11-01 AT 05:58 PM (EST) I don't know the source on this, but I've heard that MB stated that the viewers would "like the outcome" this time (as opposed to last time). Now, I trust MB and his staff just about as far as I can throw them, but this does back up your theory, Loree.   Top

Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-11-01, 07:14 PM (EST) 10. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" If we like the outcome - then Jerri can't win.   Top

ACPS65 240 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-11-01, 08:10 PM (EST) 11. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" Delightful! ANYBODY but Jerri. I hate saying that, because a little while back it was, "ANYBODY but Richard". Blah.   Top

IslandFever 205 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 03-12-01, 01:09 AM (EST) 13. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" Hey AC you are making a lot of sense here. So maybe you're not the mole after all. (It wasn't my theory). The thing that gets me is that everyone assumes that once we are down to 5 Ogies left that Jerri will go first. Nice guys finish last in this game. So unless Colby wins immunity he will be the first to go. He is nice and a threat to win immunity. Can't resist predicting: 1.Tina 2.Jerri 3.Amber 4.Keith 5.Colby Once Colby goes then we have another tie vote problem. I think Tina has been edited as the winner would be edited. Maybe a female top 3 would fit in with the black widow theory. Just a thought. May be totally wrong.   Top

bergdogg 380 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Cooking Show Host" 03-12-01, 02:05 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Whoa, whoa, WHOA!" Okay, here is my odd, but very intresting theory. Throughout the whole series, MB has been making the Jerri-Kieth feud very visable. Could it be that he has been giving us the final two ALL ALONG, right in front of our faces, and we were just to specluative to believe it. Think about it. How could the PERFECT alliance be made. The perfect alliance is an alliance that nobody could pick up on, and an alliance that could seem impossible, by two people who absolutely "can't stand each other." Let me show you what I mean by going through this whole feud peice by peice. 1) The Mitchell-Kieth tie vote. Now when Tina said she changed her vote before Tribal counsil, it was prolly for Jerri (no matter what dumbass Mitchell said on the Early show. If he knew what the hell he was talkin about, he would still be on the show.) Do you think that Keith could have convinced Tina that she and Colby should change their votes to Mitchell instead of Jerri. I mean, Kieth knew the tiebreaker rules, and Jerri had 2 votes, so he could have easily made his "make sure she doesn't win dream" a reality and voted for her. So why would he vote for Mitchell over Jerri instead?? 2) Colby, Tina, and Amber- the puppets. Take a look at last episode for example. Keith, who was VERY vulnerable, got Tina to step down for "the team," and he got immunity, and his ass saved from saying "buh bye" to Barrumundi. They also kept Jerri's votes a secret, which was a strategy move, of course. They knew that team strategy would hide Jerri's votes, and Keith was lucky he got immunity, cause Jeff smelled votes all over him. So, could Jerri and Keith use "TEAM LOYALTY" to pick off the Kucha, and (fully understanding immunity could fu(k this whole thing up) then use Amber (or Jerri's-pawn) to kill off Tina and Colby, and be able to kill the pawn, and leave each other to go at it for $1 million, while the loser will get a "depressingly-sad" $100,000. So, I may be wrong, but we are talking about MB's show, and he could be pulling the wool over our eyes again.   Top

cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator" 03-12-01, 02:23 AM (EST) 15. "Everyone seems to be forgetting IC's" I keep seeing people post that Colby will win the IC's. Remember the IC's aren't ALWAYS physical challenges. Even if the Kuchas start getting picked off (which I think they will), when it gets down to 5 Ogies and 1 Kucha, that Kucha could very well win immunity. Colleen almost did, so whose to say it can't happen this time. If that does happen, that immune Kucha has a great opportunity to align with two Ogies and make themselves a way to the Top 3. The problem with all the ditch your side theories is by defecting to the other side, you automatically jeopardize yourself from votes from your original tribe, and if you make the Final 2, do so with an originally opposing tribe member and have virtually no shot of winning.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-01, 03:41 AM (EST) 16. "RE: Ditching your own side" That's such a good point about ditching your own side being the way to alienate the jury. Does anyone know if the jury gets to see all the votes cast, even though Jeff may not read them all? The main reason I have, right now, for believing that the Kuchas don't get picked off for either 3 or 4 weeks to come (depending on that last IC winner) is Jeff Varners's comment on the Early Show that things were about to get very very interesting. I doubt he would volunteer that if it were false, just to do promo for Burnett and lose all credibility afterwards. My interpretation: Jeff couldn't possibly think the methodical monotonous slaughter of the Kuchas would be very interesting. He was implying that new loyalties/betrayals/configurations would arise and change the outcome. He talked about one or more "major players," emerging soon, not about team strength. I will be very surprised, though, if an Ogakor gets booted next.   Top

PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-12-01, 08:32 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Ditching your own side" I have to agree with you on this point, Outfront... not only is it insanity to ditch your own tribe to alienate the jury (and there are people on the show who would make such a mistake) but Jeff Varner's comment is very intriguing, too. I strongly believe that once it gets to a 5-2 lead for the Ogies, the game will turn on its ear. Keith, Colby, Tina and Jerri were ready to strangle each other after 12 days in the outback... what makes you think they won't be scratching each other's eyes out after 27 days? Something has to give and I strongly feel somebody will defect or the Ogies (i.e. Keith and Jerri) will turn on each other in Ep10. This is likely what Jeff Varner meant by the game getting very interesting. I think he's also alluding to something going on with Nick as part of the "interesting" scenario as he may have been a puppet of MB/CBS on the Early Show but he's still strong-minded enough to say things on his own without prodding. So... I'm with you on this, Outfront. 2 more Kuchas are likely to go in the next two episodes then break out the lawn chairs and the marshmallows because the fireworks are just beginning.   Top

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