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"Ep 10 Fireworks"
Annadad 26 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-09-01, 08:18 PM (EST)
 
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"Ep 10 Fireworks" |
Quite a few posts have speculated that once the numbers get to 5 Ogies and 3 Kuchas, an Ogie, most likely Jerri, will defect over to the remaining Kuchas. A defection is possible but Ep. 8 is too early.Keith, Colby and Jerri are still vulnerable in any tie breaker situation. A defection by any of them when its 5-3 Ogawhore would yield a 4-4 vote which brings in the tie breakers. That is a risk they won't take. I don't see Tina defecting nor Amber. Tina didn't take a dive for the tribe to protect Keith just to defect to Kucha. Amber will follow Jerri wherever Jerri says to go. The Ogre alliance should therefore hold until it gets to 5-2. That is when it might make sense for a defection but not of just one Ogie. Think about it, if the Ogawhores just keep knocking off the Kuchas one by one, they only insure that they get to the final five. On the other hand, lets say Tina, Keith and Colby side up with the last two desperate Kuchas to vote out Jerri and Amber. After that the Ogie three toss out the last two Kuchas and bang, they are in the final three where its all up to the challenges and the final vote. At some point the Ogre 5 person alliance has to break up 3-2. If they dispose of all the Kuchas first, you have to figure out how the Ogies are likely to split. I think you have Amber and Jerri together for sure. Keith won't be in any grouping with those two. That leaves Colby and Tina as the keys. I think that Tina and Keith stick together based on their having got closer and closer since Jerri snagged the canoe just before they engineered the demise of Mitchell. Where oh where does Colby go? Thats why its a good idea for Tina and Keith to defect in Ep 10 when the count is 5-2. They can ask Colby to go with them to join with the last two Ks and then knock out Jerri and Amber. If he says no, they tell him they are defecting anyway and will join with the last two Ks to vote him out because they will have a 4-3 majority. Colby has no choice but to join them. He either takes the cakewalk into the final three they are offering or he sticks with Amber and Jerri and gets knocked off in Ep. 10. If Tina and Keith don't defect but stay with Ogakor until all the Ks are gone, who do you think will be the two Ogies on the short side of the 3-2 split? It will clearly be Keith and Tina. If they follow this, I don't see how they can fail to end up in the final 3 save for some bizzarro IC outcome. Forget the red herrings, these people want to win and that means continued tribal voting for the Ogies until the count gets to 5 Ogres to 2 Kuchies. Thats when a move has to be made. I pray that Tina and Keith think of this before Jerri does. I mean I'm praying HARD.
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-10-01, 05:40 AM (EST)
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2. "RE: Ep 10 Fireworks" |
I agree in principal, but I also think the fireworks could easily start in E9 with a two man advantage. The reason is that in E10, there is less opportunity to throw votes on members as carry over votes.E8 will hit someone in Ogakor with four votes. Who? In my book, anyone but Amber. So in E9, potentially four people could have votes. Certainly three people. This makes Kuchas 3 votes in E9 very powerful. There are many scenarios including all seven votes hitting one person and could change the order of most votes carried by one person. At 5-3, someone could make a move to defect and hit an Ogakor. If this person is Amber, the Ogies could go virtually 1,2,3,4. But she may pick up votes along the way from her former tribe. If Colby, Keith or Tina (assuming she has votes by then), they will have to win the last two immunities to stay alive for the final two. Tina could go the route of Amber if she gets no votes in E8. In an E10 start, that means 5-2 Ogakor like you said. Now, who jumps? A single can't work. Jerri and Amber can, but again Jerri has votes and would be the prime target in the final four. She too must win back to back immunity titles then. So, I think things happen in E9. Tina, Amber, and Jerri are the most likely.
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frogspit 95 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-11-01, 00:46 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Ep 10 Fireworks" |
>A defection by any of them when its 5-3 Ogawhore would yield a
>4-4 vote which brings in the tie breakers. Not necessarily. See my analysis in the "SEX" thread. It'd actually be more beneficial for Jerri to jump the gun and go Black Widow in Ep 9. Amber would follow her when she forms her secret coalition with Elisabeth and Nick. It'd be to their benefit to join her in order for them to advance. It all hinges on keeping their coalition a secret from Rodger and the others. Rodger votes for Colby as would already be prearranged, then so does the new Back Stab Coalition. Colby is out with 6-3 votes... no tiebreaker. The key is secrecy going into TC#9. From there the Back Stab Coalition (Jerri, Amber, Elisabeth, Nick) would ride out the rest of the game picking off Keith, Tina, Rodger. Final Four - Jerri, Amber, Elisabeth, Nick
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