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"Is Alicia the next to go?"
shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-09-01, 01:32 PM (EST)
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"Is Alicia the next to go?" |
Let's look at some of the clues regarding what looks like a pretty good chance of an Alicia vote off in the next episode. I know that this has been addressed in other threads, but this a chance to organize all the evidence into one thread.First off, I think most of us can agree that a Kucha bootee if inevitable despite what the previews might hint towards. Ogakor has silenced all critics as to their ability to play this game with intelligence....they may hate Scerri, but they know that they have to hold off on the cannibalism for at least one more week in order to insure a 5-3 advantage. Obviously, Alicia has set herself up as one of the two strongest members of Kucha along with Nick. But, by staying on the log for nearly 11 hours she may have placed herself ahead of Nick in the eyes of Ogakor since he only lasted an hour and a half.
Secondly, AyaK's theory regarding the "Go Kucha" autograph is a possibility...the theory is that with the inevitable Kucha-double cross that will occur as the game goes along, the only way Alicia would still have alliegence to her former tribe is if she was NOT around long enough to either be the proponent or the victim of a double-cross. Now, here is something new that I would like to add into the discussion.
Jeff stated in his interview today that ALicia still dislikes Kimmi. Why would that be...the chicken fight was not substantial enough to result in 3 months of anger, so it must be something else. Jeff and Alicia watched several of the episodes together and have become good friends, so you know they have exchanged theories on what happened and why. In his interview, Jeff blamed Kimmi and her big mouth for being the reason that he was voted off. But, as we all know Jeff is not going to be the only victim of Kimmi's big mouth as the next bootee will also be able to say that Kimmi's big mouth was the proximate cause of a chain of events that also made it possible for the next Kucha member to be tossed given the 5-4 Ogakor advantage.....just like Jeff blames Kimmi, so will the next person from Kucha voted off. That would explain why Alicia still harbours hard feelings for Kimmi, cause she blames her for getting Jeff voted off which in turn led to the circumstances that allowed Alicia to be tossed. I know it's early, but it looks really bad for Alicia at this point...let's not forget that at this time last week Jeff looked like he was good as done...and we all see how that turned out...now if I can just convince myself to NOT change my mind like I always do.
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brain 29 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-09-01, 02:13 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
Shakes:Great post. The one thing that I keep thinking about is why would MB show us the clip of Jeff & Alicia forming a mini-allience and not have it play out in some way, shape or form? I wish that I could remeber the exact wording of that exchange in Ep. 2. If it was something to the effect of "you and me are sticking together" then it's a great piece of foreshadowing. If it was more "hey baby, how bout you and me form an alliance?" then it could still point to an Alicia boot because the alliance never came into play and MB showed it. The only thing that I can think of that would weaken this argument, is if the only reason MB included it was to set up the Mike quote in Ep 5 about not being in Jeff and Alicia's dirty little guild. And I wouldn't put that past him. Brain
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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03-09-01, 02:22 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go? YES" |
At this time next week, I thought Jeff was the next to go. I used my time and energy to convince myself that there was a logical way that Jerri would go, because I wanted her to go and I did not want Jeff or any Kucha to go. And it still felt wrong.(yeah, I know, who cares). Right now I feel sure that Alicia will go - I swear it will be much harder to convince myself otherwise this time!I am right there with those of you who think there is more up with Nick than meets the eye. His early jump off the post just has to be more than the "laziness" that we have been programmed to see. He showed that he didn't feel threatened, and he remains more of an unknown quantity in terms of his abilities and determination to win ICs. And I have a sneaky feeling that he is the one behind the "Kimmi vote for Jeff" - and Jeff's interview on The Early Show supported my previous suspicion that whoever told Kimmi that, did so for strategic reasons (yes, I posted that idea before! ). It could only have been Nick, Liz or Rodger who did that. IC next week: too many reasons for everyone to be motivated, even Ogakors. It may be time for a more mental/cerebral IC, which may not favor Alicia. Other reasons point to Alicia as Shakes stated in original post. Ogakor will not turn on each other yet, they have to feel really good about pulling this off. But in time... Interesting about Tina: I can't see why she would have felt vulnerable enough to be so determined to win IC, and it just killed her to give up even though she knew the payoff and she seems to like Keith fine (it's not like it was Jerri having to suck it up for Keith's sake!). She showed a lot of strength, competitiveness and determination, and I wonder how much longer she sticks with "for the team" in lieu of her own interests (well, we already know something about her capabilities there). And: It does seem arbitrary and unfair that Kuchas don't know who Kimmi voted for. Even though Jeff would have been gone anyway, now they don't know if one of them has a vote or not! They all likely assume that Alicia does. Whoever told Kimmi may or may not be sure that she did in fact vote Jeff. It did/does matter in terms of strategy for Kuchas, and I don't understand how this unequal treatment is allowed.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-09-01, 03:14 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: Nick as Unknown" |
Nick's so far under the radar, he's halfway digging through to China by now. But Jerri's the type of person who will make Nick an issue in the next few days the way she outed Kel for walking off on his own. It wouldn't surprise me if Nick is the bootee next week unless there's more to the story behind the previews going on with Elisabeth.
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shanana banana 658 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-09-01, 04:07 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go? YES" |
>>At this time next week, I thought Jeff was the next to go. I used my time and energy to convince myself that there was a logical way that Jerri would go, because I wanted her to go and I did not want Jeff or any Kucha to go. And it still felt wrong.****DITTO here! I'm not falling for my heart over my head this week. >>Right now I feel sure that Alicia will go - I swear it will be much harder to convince myself otherwise this time! ****I, too, am sure of Alicia this week (as I felt early for Jeff last week) and am not going to change my mind. Alicia (sniff) it's going to be. >>I am right there with those of you who think there is more up with Nick than meets the eye. His early jump off the post just has to be more than the "laziness" that we have been programmed to see. ****You are right on. Nick was very smart to jump off early - there was absolutely no need for him to remain on the pole. He was not threatened by a vote-off, so why bother? Let him save his energy for the challenges he's going to need, like this week and next. In closing, I feel Keith and Jerry will grudgingly remain a block through at least next week so they can all vote off Alicia. As far as two weeks from now, Keith and Colby are fools if they don't realize that now would be the time to make a temporary alliance with Kucha and boot her. They can get rid of her and still retain a majority of Ogawhores as a voting block. On the flip side, Jerri will need to make an alliance with the remaining Kucha tribe in order to stay alive, but I don't see them bonding with her. However, it would be a smart move if they did and voted off COLBY, who now has five votes against him and would definitely lose any future tiebreaker (the Black Widow episode?) Then Kucha could align with Keith and Tina, who also hate Jerri, vote her off and regain control. On the flip flip side (what??), I see NO possibility of the Ogawhore team remaining a solid voting block over the next four weeks in order to pick off Kucha one by one. There is no way Jerri and Keith will be able to keep an alliance together that long. Tina had to be the one to help Keith win immunity - Scerri Jerri just decided to give up mid way and leave Keith holding the bag and Ogawhore's future at TC in his hands. Keith's got to be pissed about that. Jerri's got to realize that if she ends up in an all Ogawhore final, she's dead dead meat.
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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-09-01, 03:12 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
>Ogakor has silenced all critics as to their ability to play this game with intelligence....they may hate Scerri, but they know that they have to hold off on the cannibalism for at least one more week in order to insure a 5-3 advantage. *** I want Jerri gone more than anything, and I keep voting every week in the picks for it to be her. But it just doesn't make sense for next week. Alicia is the obvious target, unless she wins immunity, and I don't see that happening. So, I guess I have to be realistic this coming week and say it's gonna be Alicia. >Secondly, AyaK's theory regarding the "Go Kucha" autograph is a possibility...the theory is that with the inevitable Kucha-double cross that will occur as the game goes along, the only way Alicia would still have alliegence to her former tribe is if she was NOT around long enough to either be the proponent or the victim of a double-cross. ****Aaaah!!! Brilliant! >Jeff stated in his interview today that ALicia still dislikes Kimmi. Why would that be...the chicken fight was not substantial enough to result in 3 months of anger, so it must be something else. ***True - sounds like they had plenty of time to get on each other's nerves on the bootee ranch. >...now if I can just convince myself to NOT change my mind like I always do. *** Well, every week I pick Jerri and every week we're still stuck looking at that pissy mug of hers! Maybe this week if I go with the obvious choice of Alicia, I'll be rewarded the week after THAT with a Jerri boot! ************************************** What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-09-01, 05:56 PM (EST)
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24. "Same ranch, different travel schedule" |
The jury members and the earlier bootees stayed at the same ranch. But the pre-jury bootees were free to travel around for the rest of their time in Oz. The jury members would have to stick around to come to TC every third day.
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Baylor gal 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-09-01, 03:19 PM (EST)
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9. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
I know that this is my frist post on this site, but shakes, it sounds like you have an excellent theory on your hands.As much as I would LOVE for Jerri to leave, the possiblity of Alicia getting the boot would be a smart move. Not just for Jerri's sake, but a brilliant move for Colby, Keith, and Tina. Right now they have the advantage of one for the Ogie Alliance. If they booted Alicia (or any other Kucha) off, they would have the advantage of two. That would be enough for them to have the possibility of not only booting Jerri off at a later date, but having enough time for Jerri to piss off some Kuchas so they would vote her out as well. As much as I like Alicia on the show, unless a huge rift ensues between the ogies, she might be the one to say buh-bye.
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Baylor gal 3 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-10-01, 02:05 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
mistofleas... yes, as in Waco, TX
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kdzrgon 16 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-09-01, 03:53 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
"...which goes very well with this picture. Same clothes (Amber, Rodger, Nick & Jerri's pants, at least)" I think that pic MAY be from a different time frame. Amber has a different headband in (red), and Jerri is wearing her knit cap, although while walking she has her long-sleeved shirt on (assuming it is cooler time of day), but she is not wearing the cap. If the temp. had cooled, would she trade her hat for the shirt (or vice versa), or would she have just added the add'l clothing? As to the stick in the corner, it may well be Keith. Although angles can be deceiving, note the relative height (of the stick) next to Tina. Plus, Keith and Tina are often seen near one another. The setup of the fire does not lend itself to someone sitting in the void spot (lower center/right in photo), so either someone (Alicia, &/or possibly Keith) is apart from the crowd, or already gone (less likely scenario, I know).
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mistofleas 8043 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-09-01, 04:13 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-09-01 AT 04:15 PM (EST)>"...which goes very well with this >picture. Same clothes (Amber, Rodger, >Nick & Jerri's pants, at >least)" I agree, there are a couple of differences, but we've seen them all change clothes throughout the day for different reasons (upcoming IC's, cold or hot, after swimming or rain) > > >As to the stick in the >corner, it may well be >Keith. Although angles can be >deceiving, note the relative height >(of the stick) next to >Tina. Plus, Keith and Tina >are often seen near one >another. You'll notice that everyone has a stick in their hands (and notice how much bigger Jerri's is from everyone else's!!) except Roger and Tina. Rodger is eating and Tina is stirring something in the pan. It could just be Tina's stick that she put down to be able to stir the pot. She would probably prop it up on a rock so that it wouldn't get dirty. >The setup of the fire does >not lend itself to someone >sitting in the void spot >(lower center/right in photo), so >either someone (Alicia, &/or possibly >Keith) is apart from the >crowd, or already gone (less >likely scenario, I know). IMHO, the whole photo looks a little contrived to me. Kind of like on TV sitcoms when everyone sits down to dinner and they're all lined up on one side of the table. I like the number 333...it's only half as evil.
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Lisapooh 12664 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-09-01, 04:05 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
Nick also has on different pants and Tina has on an entirely different outfit. I wish these people could bring more clothes.
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aymelek 1220 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-09-01, 04:34 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
I just posted it because I thought the clothes were similar & it could have explained Alicia's absence (it came from Aja on ss btw). I don't think that Alicia is gone next week--these pictures were too easy--especially for an amateur like me. These were just handed to us--WAY too early too. This is getting off the subject, but I DO think Lis is in serious trouble next week. The forshadowing where she says "Jerri's gone" (or somethng similar--I don't have the exact quote). Alicia MUST win immunity next week--she's gone next week otherwise & she knows it. So that leaves Lis & Nick. This is speculation, but I think Nick is going to turn out to be a traitor. 1) He jumped off that pole last night WAY too early for a strong guy--must think he is safe (course he WAS sick) 2) Jeff's comments (or lack thereof) about Nick today on the early show about who spilled the beans to Kimmi about Kucha voting Jeff off & why it was strategic 3) Nick & Colby spent a long while on the beach together--what could they have been talking about?
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cowboyroo 590 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-11-01, 11:30 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
I saw this one too, but there is another one in the same walk from a different angle that does have Alicia in it. I think it was at survivorfeverland or survivornews, but Alicia is just not able to be seen in that photo. If I refind the other one, I'll post it.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-09-01, 03:50 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
I'll take you up on that one, von... except for the order that Colby and Ambore goes. I believe they'll zap Ambore the LapDog first before Colby because everyone will associate Ambore with Scerri Jerri. Colby is also a much better threat on the IC's so he might win one around that time. It wouldn't surprise me if Colby sticks around for the final four as all it would take is for him to alliance himself with either Keith/Tina or with Liz/Rodger, and he's home free.
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LowRent 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-09-01, 04:16 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go? Not Yet" |
I just don't see her going quite yet. Wasn't there a foreshadowing moment in this week's episode when Alicia was talking about the strength of her relationship with Liz and mentioned how good things would come from it? I didn't tape the episode and don't have the exact quote but I'm sure that those two concocted some sort of backup plan during the hike to Ogakor (Ladies' Night Out). They both knew that Jeff had a really good chance to be booted next which would put their tribe at a serious disadvantage. I'm seeing four new mini alliances with Nick the Odd man out...Alicia - Elis Colby - Keith Amber - Gerri Tina - Rodger (she adores him) this leaves Nick floating by himself (again). The loner always seems to get picked off because there is no one else to stick up for him. Since the jury will consist of the next bootees, Nick is a logical choice since his departure will not seriously piss off any of the other contestants, and at this point in the game they should be trying to build good will with each other.
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Play2Survive 270 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-09-01, 05:01 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: .........friends with Jerri?" |
I agree that all finders point to Alicia. But if Alicia does get booted in E8, when did she and Jerri become friends? I suppose if Jerri is ejected in E9 or E10 they could have become friends at camp, but I don't want to ignore "friends" theories like I did last week. I'm still kicking myself.
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Bushwacker 74 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-09-01, 07:40 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: .........friends with Jerri?" |
There's just too much evidence pointing to Alicia being voted out. The only thing that can save her is winning the IC. Based on everything we've seen and read, it won't happen. BTW, she really did hurt her tribe and herself by giving the last IC to Ogakor. If you're going to stay in for 10 hours why give up? I can only guess she was in worse shape that she appeared.
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Superman 3157 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-10-01, 00:51 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go? Probably" |
I think she is, UNLESS:1. she wins immunity. On one hand, I see this as very possible, she's tough. On the other hand, if this is a mental challenge she's not going to fare well. Plus EVERYONE on the Kucha tribe is going to be busting their butts to win this immunity challenge. 2. Ogakor royaly screws up. I don't see this happening at this point. It's going to be Alicia this week, unless she's wins Immunity. If she does it's gonna be Nick. One thing is for certain, if I see one thread on why Jerri will go this week, I'm gonna scream.
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dangerkitty 1913 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Herbal Healing Drugs Endorser"
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03-10-01, 01:03 AM (EST)
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27. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go? Probably" |
I agree with your post, oh Superman, Lord and master of Top Ten Lists.I'm betting it will be more of a mental/cerebral IC, and Alicia won't have an advantage. Besides, not only Kucha but Ogakors will be hell-bent to win immunity- even though they'd be nuts to break their alliance this week, it still has to be an uneasy truce, and interactions with Kucha over the three ensuing days may raise suspicions. Plus they have big vote totals now.(Colby, Keith, Jerri). Based on editing/storytelling, Alicia also seems way more likely to go than Nick. We have a lot to learn about Nick. And Supe, you'll see no "Jerri will go" posts from me this week! I'm resigned to a Kucha boot (anything different would be a wonderful surprise and cause for me to pinch myself, hard). dangerkitty
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-10-01, 05:05 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: Is Alicia the next to go?" |
Shakes, I do think Alicia knows Jeff was "set up" by Kimmi ratting on Jeff in E2. But she knew that in E7 at least. Jeff did say Ogakor knew he had a vote. Alicia and Nick said they were the targets because they appear the most physically threatening for challenges. The fact that NO ONE realized that in Ogakor's shoes, they had more people with votes so a "lucky" hit would be more likely and that Ogakor's best chance is to go with what they know (Jeff), is the key either way. Major Kucha mistake as we all now know.Alicia may blame Kimmi for Jeff and for what may be her early exit, but she is not taking any blame for missing the proper strategy. Colby's "swan dive" was so perfect, yet no NHL ref would have called it! Kucha bought it and took it to the bank. Sure, now Alicia is elevated to a higher rung for target purposes. But any dislike for Kimmi by Alicia is moot. Kucha has only themselves to blame for being down 5-4. Nick and Alicia and Jeff did not try to win immunity. Jeff especially gave up when his ass was on the line. Nick is an idiot and to leave after 90 minutes certainly shows he has little concern over what happens to the tribe so long as he stays. Alicia was the last Kucha hope. Why didn't she stick it out? That leaves questions about her in my mind. So, let's look at Alicia and Nick. I agree that Nick will likely continue to be "lazy" and should fly under the radar again. But does he feel more threatened now? Does he try to win immunity this time? If he quits again, he won't be as much of a threat. Alicia wants to win and will try harder I feel. She may be upset about the whole disintegration of Kucha. She must think she's the prime target. She needs immunity. So, does she win? That's the answer to the next bootee. I prefer to wait for "further developments."
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