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"NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS"
Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-09-01, 12:08 PM (EST)
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"NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
Last season at this point it was very obvious that Rich and his merry band of 4 were going to take down the Pagongers one at a time. Of course some very persuasive red herrings in the form of the Fake Final 4 pic, titles of the show and the infamous Gervase X caused many of us, including myself, to second guess the obvious and pick the unlikely. At this point, due mostly to the stupidity of Kucha (man, without Michael they are just plain itiots!!!) Ogakor is in a win/win position. I agree with some other posters on this board in that I can not figure out for the life of me why the would go for Colby. Sure he is the biggest threat but they should have known, especially since they knew that Kimmi told Ogakor that Jeff had a vote against him, that it was going to come down to the tie-breaker (WHICH BY THE WAS OF COURSE USED). Watching Jeff on the Morning Show this morning he stated that he had a feeling that Kieth had votes against him and he was going to convince his tribe to block vote against Kieth instead of Colby. Thanks to Tina that was not possible. His reasoning was that when Kieth and Colby came over for lunch Jeff was starting to cook when Kieth walked over and grabbed the spoon out of Jeff's hand, beginning to cook. This gave Jeff the feeling that Kieth had votes against him. The Immunity challenge and Tina giving it away to Kieth has essentially given Ogakor, as long as they aren't itiots, the game. I do not believe that any one of them are itiots so Ogakor should win the whole thing (GO KUCHA!!!). This means that the stronger Kucharians are in trouble...1. Alicia 2. Nick There are also reports of injurys by the following tribesmen... 1. Roger - horseback riding injury - broken collarbone. 2. Alicia - no idea how or what. In both of these cases it is Kucha with the injurys so it should not change the course of the game too much. So... Ogakor should be able to pick off Kucha one at a time and get down to the final 5. Of course this makes for bad TV so I, I mean Mark Burnett, will try and throw you, I mean us, disinformation. From this point out we need to really stick to Ogakor continuing to vote as a block. I can not see any Ogakor, with the possible exception of Jerri, not voting with her team. The only time that Jerri could possibly switch sides to have it work out in her favor is episode 8. This would not make sense for her as she would know that once down to 5 she would be first to go. At a minimum she leaves at the same time sticking with Ogakor. So, my question is this... In the opening scenes there are shots of some people with mud on their face. Could this actually be the final 4 tribesmen?
Conspiracy Jim
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-09-01, 12:29 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
>In the opening scenes there are shots of some people with mud >on their face. Could this actually be the final 4 tribesmen?This was looked at a few other times on the board. Here is the thread that I recall reading that had at least speculated on this subject. http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/679.shtml Here is the gist of what was mentioned in the thread: >Upper right: Mike's receded hairline and forehead, small eyes >Upper Left: Amber's eye and hairline >Lower Right: Keith's jaw and loose skin >Lower Left: Colby's straight nose and chin, jaw Obviously the Mike portion can no longer hold true, but the other three could possibly, if this is actually something worth looking futher into. The top right does appear to have more of Mike's feature's however, which leads me to believe that this is not necessarily a picture of the final four. Though I could see a possibility of that upper right being either Rodger or even possibly Nick.
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HomeBrewer 104 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-09-01, 12:59 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
It was also brought up that it was Lizliz's head dress. This should not be discounted. We know Mike is Gone, but Liz is not (yet).
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-09-01, 02:04 PM (EST)
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7. "but let's keep our wits about us, CJ" |
>Ogakor should be able to pick off Kucha one at a time and get > down to the final 5. Of course this makes for bad TV so I, I > mean Mark Burnett, will try and throw you, I mean us, > disinformation. From this point out we need to really stick to > Ogakor continuing to vote as a block. I can not see any > Ogakor, with the possible exception of Jerri, not voting with > her team. The only time that Jerri could possibly switch sides > to have it work out in her favor is episode 8. This would not > make sense for her as she would know that once down to 5 she > would be first to go. At a minimum she leaves at the same time > sticking with Ogakor.CJ, I agreed with everything you said until I got to this paragraph. Sorry, but this doesn't seem right to me. In fact, the only time that it does NOT make sense for Jerri to defect in in E8. And why wouldn't Amber go with her? Let's look at the evidence: E8: 9 tribesmen: 5 Ogakor, 4 Kucha. The Kucha will vote together, so Jerri defecting alone would finish fifth, and Jerri defecting with Amber would finish fifth and sixth. Conclusion: Jerri will not defect. E9: 8 tribesmen: 5 Ogakor, 3 Kucha. A Jerri defection will cause a tie, so if she votes along with the Kucha for Colby or Keith, well, adios to him on the tiebreak. Jerri and Amber defecting will produce a clean majority. But there are still 3 Kucha who will probably vote together, meaning that Jerri only improves to 4th, and Jerri and Amber would be 4th and 5th, barring injury. Conclusion: Jerri will defect here only in an emergency (for example, if she isn't sure about Amber). E10: 7 tribesmen: 5 Ogakor, 2 Kucha. A Jerri defection by herself is now meaningless. But a Jerri and Amber defection creates a 4-person final bloc, split 2-2 between Ogakor and Kucha. Jerri and Amber could defect, vote off an Ogakor, and still probably win a E13 tiebreaker to make the final three 2 Ogakor-1 Kucha. The worst they could finish are third and fourth. Conclusion: Jerri and Amber are likely to defect here. E11: 6 tribesmen: 5 Ogakor, 1 Kucha. A Jerri and Amber alliance with the remaining Kucha would produce a 3-3 tie, meaning that Keith or Colby is GONE on the tiebreak. Again, this would produce a 2 Ogakor-1 Kucha final three. Problem: Jerri may be the target in E11 instead of the last Kucha (as Kelly would have been the target instead of Colleen were she not immune). Conclusion: Jerri is unlikely to wait this long. I don't think we have the same situation as S1 because of the Jerri-Keith conflict. Your thoughts?
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Conspiracy Jim 198 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-09-01, 04:21 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
OK, I had run out of time earlier and had to post but here is some further analysis. I agree with one of the replys to my initial post in that Jerri could defect with Amber and as such could use the Colby 5 previous votes to pull off the upset. It makes zero sense for her to Benedict in Episode 8. It also makes very little sense for her to do so in Episode 9. That means at the very worst no one will defect from Ogakor until Episode 10, and this is still very, VERY unlikely. Why defect when you are guaranteed top 5, unless you would be guaranteed final 4 and believe that you would be gone first after getting rid of the opposing team. Jerri may feel this way and have her and Amber swap over to join up with the 2 remaining Kucharians, but that would not be until Episode eleven. Anyway, for now we should continue to key in solely, no matter what red herrings are provided, at a Kucha boot. By the way, Mark Burnett has started his disinformation already. Here is next weeks CBS promo...Next Week on SURVIVOR: THE AUSTRALIAN OUTBACK: * Elisabeth realizes that there is a serious crack in the Ogakor alliance. Will she prevail? NO SHE WILL NOT, AT LEAST NOT UNTIL EPISODE 11 SO DON'T BELIEVE IT!!!!! * Why aren't the losers of the reward challenge bummed out? * Who hurts Elisabeth's feelings? PROBABLY JERRI BUT WHO CARES!!! Anyway, lets start analyzing the preview shots once again... This person (shadow) is probably the winner. Can't make it out but it makes sense.
This is the one that I will get flames over. I think that this is Jerri with her hair slicked back and possibly weight loss. Remember that they are about at the half way point. The skinnier people will lose some significant weight between now and the end. Look at the eyes and the lips. This is a female and the only one that it could be is Jerri. You want further proof? OK here goes!!!...
I hope that this will convice most of you!!!!!
Now there is not one person who would not agree that this is Amber.
An Aboringine dude, no help!!!
Kieth, again almost no doubt.
Colby. Though with the Psylock from the X-Men psionic thingy going on some may disagree but here is a comparison...
The only issue that I have at all is his bandana. We know that he likes to wear his bandanas on his head. And by the way that is why I am picking him as the final winner (The person who is on the Survivor II Field Guide Cover seems to be wearing a bandana and is male - look at my previous post regarding this). Though the more I think about it I can see Jerri pulling it off. Anyway... In this pic his bandana seems to be blue. I don't think that it's a big issue as it is Colby in this pic.
So... We have Jerri, Amber, Kieth and Colby - all Ogakor - in the previews with mud on their faces. Means to me that this mud face thing is probably a final 4 tribal council thing. This would mean that after picking off Kucha one at a time that Tina would be next leaving these 4. The whole Jerri is a Black Widow thing that MB said is still to some and is likely to be right around the time when they get down to 5 people. I could see after getting rid of Kucha that Jerri has a "talk" with Colby to the effect of please keep me!!! Or that she will "use her sexuality" to keep her around until final 3. That means if the pics are correct that after ousting Tina Colby and Kieth go up against Amber and Jerri or Colby joins up to oust Kieth. Anyway, I think the Black Widow thing will be when after having talked Colby into keeping her around she will turn around and Black Widow him or Black Widow Amber. Either way she gets to the final 3. For Colby to make it past a 2-2 Kieth/Colby versus Jerri/Amber he would need to win immunity or join up with Jerri/Amber or, and this is likely... That the promise made to Colby by Jerri is that after getting rid of Tina that they would then oust Kieth. Colby then wins immunty forcing Jerri and Amber to vote against each other. Colby has the sway vote and he would rather be in the final 2 against Jerri than Amber. Colby wins!!! I don't know, this is still 6 weeks away but for now I beg of thee DO NOT LET Burnett change your belief in that Kucha gets the boot at least for the next two shows if not the next 4!!! Conspiracy Jim at his finest!!!
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-09-01, 04:40 PM (EST)
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9. "Interesting analysis" |
Right now, CJ, it seems to me that anyone who contends that someone other than Alicia or Nick is booted in E8 has a serious credibility hurdle to cross. I thought there were only three people with a chance of going last week (Keith, Jeff, Colby) -- one won immunity and the other two locked in a double tie. This week there are only two, and the only variable between them is immunity.
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rameses 89 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-09-01, 10:24 PM (EST)
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15. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
I agree...the "Colby" pic certainly looks like Keith's eyebrows. As for the headdress pic, that definitely looks like a morph of different people, men included. The left side of the face is way too masculine looking. The left ear is larger than the one on the other side, and the chin looks different too. I agree the nose does resemble Jerri's, but it's hard to say whose eyes we are looking at without pix of the other people posted there to compare. Could easily be Amber's or even Lis's eyes.
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LowRent 49 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-09-01, 04:42 PM (EST)
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10. "Red Herring: Rodger's Broken Collarbone" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-10-01 AT 00:18 AM (EST)I don't believe for a second that Rodger broke his collarbone while there. That's an injury that would take a really long time to heal, especially with someone his age. Further, I don't think there is any challenge involving horses. This just doesn't make sense to me; and I think that this info was in the same bogus report that said that there were more men than women at the merge (which so many of us ran with). Anyone want to back me up....at least on the collarbone thing? Someone must know someone who has broken their scapula, I think its the most frequently broken bone in the body and it takes a really long time to heal up, and you have to have your arm in a sling forever. Help! OOps, I meant clavicle...not scapula. sorry
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-10-01, 06:19 AM (EST)
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17. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
CJ, first I don't believe Kuchas are as "smart" as Ogakor collectively. They missed so many opportunities to hit Jerri it's gives me a brain freeze! Nick is an ass and obviously could care less about Kucha otherwise he would have stayed to try and win I7. Alicia too to some degree though she was the last Kucha to go down. And Jeff! What an idiot! He's like a cheerleader! Rooting for the team to score a touchdown while on defense! Why didn't he stay until he passed out and fell off his perch? He knew his number was up even if the others didn't!Ogakor should at least understand they need another Kucha to go -- Alicia leads the list, then Nick. They want the threats to immunity eliminated. So the potential for shake up is E9 and E10. They were the crucial episodes in S1 to take out the alliance so nothing should change the attempt there. But this time it comes from within and should offer greater drama than seeing the Pagong die. An all five Ogakor situation will provide some excitement over the Tagi 5, but Tina and Amber would be targets while Jerri tries to hold on and hit Keith (at this point). {Added votes from future/past TC's change the target}. What I see is that while tribal bonds run deep, so do tribal wounds. Keith and Jerri. Colby? Tina? Just how "hurt" are these people? What is their "revenge" level? As far as Rodger and the horse thing. I don't believe it, but I'm not discounting someone could get hurt and even, that we could get another passed TC as in Mike's. It could be important to the Ogakors, but is probably more important to Elisabeth. She'd cry so much the Herbet River will over flow washing their camp away! From my point of view, most of the spoilers that have any meaning worthwhile as a group, come from the preview and promos the week before the episode. The booted people can be helpful, but beyond that, nothing is really definite. All the teasers by CBS have had meaning to some degree. E1, who's bossing their tribe; E2, does Kimmi eat meat and who's eating beef jerky/stealing food; E3 Rodger falling; E4 coup in Ogakor; E5 Alicia and Kimmi's argument; E6 injury; E7 who's betrayed? At least half of these related to the bootee, and the rest set up some link to the targets at TC. Now we get for E8, what does Elisabeth see as the chink in Ogakor's armor and who is making friends, etc.? To me, this indicates that the truth about Ogakor may be coming out after three days of living together and that people are naturally forming new bonds as they did when they first arrived. We have to take this and add it to the obvious situation of immunity threats and see what we have. We know Ogakor can wipe out the Kuchas one by one but that's not necessarily a given. There's turmoil in Ogakor no matter what. Kucha could be used to aid in revenge on Ogakor members. So who does Elisabeth bond with or "observe?" What does she find out? Remember, she did say "it just hit hard," but we missed the meaning of "just." We now know it was her emotion and not that Mike had an accident, but that the accident just registered on her after the shock wore away some. Clever editing. We know MB gives us red herrings. We need to be careful and keep it simple. In other words, "complete the sentence." What could be the rest. We didn't know Kimmi ratted on Jeff, but he was the obvious Ogakor selection if they knew. He and Alicia should have been the prime targets. We knew Kucha needed to hit an Ogakor with votes to help Jeff if nothing else in tie breakers. We didn't know Kucha would miss the obvious and fall for Colby's ruse (we didn't know about the ruse either). Colby, Keith, and Jerri were the best Kucha targets. The "winning" spoiler was Debb's comments. We would have had to understand that Jeff goes only by Kucha targeting someone without votes and Tina or Colby was the best choices. Colby the most likely. This week we have Rodger falling from a horse still being an alive spoiler (though I don't think so), and certain weight loss issues that I believe are beginning to have less impact on predicting much any more. The bootees can eat much better of course even though they are on the jury. And Jerri now travels Austrailia after the show because it doesn't matter any more if she is a jury member or in the final two. What else is there for evidence to potentially valid spoilers? Time to look primarily at previews and promos and use more common logic.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-10-01, 01:06 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
They made a point of showing Keith at the Kucha camp mentioning something about as the days go on this is going to be hard for him because he gets caught up in the friendships. I wonder if that was a foreshadowing of the fact that he could become friends with Rodger and Liz? We know he's close with Tina like a sister. Tina and him can't stand Jerri. But Tina also seemed close with Rodger when she was helping him across the river.
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dangerboy 128 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-10-01, 10:49 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
AK, CJ, et al, I agree. Let's not go down last year's MB "html gag". They pulled this last time and lots of people went over the waterfall like lemmings. Everyone voted along tribal lines and knows the score. Both teams have been worried for over a week about being "Pagonged" and now it's gonna happen. Alicia, Nick, Elizabeth, or Rodger is going next. Of these, it seems that Alicia is the most contentious and she looks to be the strongest too. So I think she'll go next. The only thing that can upset this strategy is whether Jerri and Amber defect together. But I don't see that happening at this time because they both know they can get at least to the final five if they vote togeter as a block. And that is bigger money in their pockets than taking a chance and getting zapped the next week. If they defect now then they can be zapped in episodes 9, 10 , or 11 - if they stick together they make it to 12 easy. I think they'll take the easy. j
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-11-01, 03:28 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
Jerri and Amber can get to the final five by defecting as well. At 5-3 Ogakor, they hit Ogakor using Kucha's target and it's 3-2 Kucha with Jerri and Amber. It's not a lock that the final five are all Ogakor.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-11-01, 01:50 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: NOW LET"S NOT FALL FOR RED HERRINGS" |
I don't think the final 5 will be all Ogakors. The team is all scared of each other. They aren't as buddy/buddy as Kucha was. I do agree that they will vote together this week. They need each other now. But once they feel personally vulnerable (Ogakor up 5-3) they may be swayed to the Kucha side. At this point we don't know who is the most afraid of being that Ogakor to go down first. If Kucha is smart they will cause trouble and make the Ogakors doubt each other.
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