LAST EDITED ON 10-24-16 AT 09:01 PM (EST)

Nice analysis as always, michel. It feels like we're getting to around the time in the season where we can really narrow things down with where the story is going.

You're right that we can pretty much write off Sunday, Bret, Will, and Hannah from being the winner. Sunday and Will are notably quiet in the edit, even though they have specific personality traits (Will's youth and Sunday's faith) that could be leaned upon for a personal story. The lack of anything is very telling. Bret is just getting a boring sort of "good soldier" edit that often leads to a boring 8th or 9th or 10th place finish or something like that. Hannah's edit feels like a response to Aubry's from last year. Just kind of pop-ins so that we kind of like her goofiness but don't follow along with her enough to get invested.

Hannah and maybe Sunday probably have the most longevity as long-term players but neither will win.

Jessica is kinda in the same boat as above, although she has a closer link to the Ken and David story, where more of the action is. The repeated focus on her plans for the legacy advantage probably doesn't bode well for her.

Zeke is definitely a character and we're supposed to like him in general, but they don't really give him any credit for being a good strategist or social gamer. His bond with Chris is more coincidence and commonality and, notably, they don't outline how he managed to get Michelle on his side.

Taylor and Figgy are a problem. They kind of feel like our villains of the season (and therefore will not win), but they're more of the bratty dumb types, more of the Nicaragua or Amazon type. Of course, the winner came from both of those groups. I don't think that is the case here. I'm also still kinda down on Figgy's long term prospects. While she is trying to control Taylor, there are too many red flags, like being explicitly mentioned to be "bad at Survivor." I didn't get the sense that that quote was supposed to be ironic, foreshadowing, or given by an unreliable narrator. I still think Figgy falls and Taylor floats to, like, 6th or 5th place or something.

Chris' story is heating up a little bit. His friend-foe dynamic with David was specifically outlined and the vote proved that his next attempt is going well (so far). There is still no personal story with this guy yet, but this little cat-and-mouse game with David is something that could develop.

Michelle is so hot and cold with her story. It did kinda feel like she was getting a Tracy from Micronesia edit... The doomed strategist that fell too early due to circumstance. This episode kinda set it up that way, but she managed to wriggle out of it. We are supposed to be sympathetic to her bad luck and have a generally positive view from before, but her final plea to CeCe (as TC misdirection for us) also made her look dumb and scheme-y. Her insistence that she's voting for David makes me suspect there's something going on behind the scenes with her and David. Signs pointing negative as being the winner, but she could be a Kelley Wentworth type.

David is still where a lot of the story revolves around. He's way way way way too overexposed to be the winner, but he'll be around until mid-merge at the very worst.

The winner is probably one of these 4 people, handicapped right now as follows.

4. Michaela. The star of recent episodes, one of the people that we are really supposed to connect to. There's a little of Aubry's journey edit here, where Michaela is using her experiences on the island to demonstrate how she begins to believe in herself. Self esteem story here. She's missing the strategic element still (just being a swing vote), would like to see more of this.

3. Jay. The editors really seem to like him and chose him specifically to briefly handle the "we got this on lock" strategy mention. It seems pretty clear, based on that, that this is the boring tribe that doesn't go to Tribal. He is also supposed to be viewed as someone with credibility, given his criticism of Figgy/Taylor and his dissatisfaction of Bret and Sunday's work ability. His edit is still a little brash (shades of, ugh, Ozzy) but he has the lightness and credibility that is promising. He could be a midboss type that goes down during the merge, but his outsider dynamic with Figgy/Taylor insulates him a bit, strategically and in the edit.

2. Adam. Personal story plus visibility plus strategic insight. Like Jay, he is also primarily responsible for pushing the bad strategy angle of Figgy and Taylor. Am concerned we could be going down Spencer Avenue again with him, but I like his earnestness.

1. Ken. Oh gawd, the shilling that has been done for Ken this season. I mean, I like him, so the edit is working... But gawd, so much shilling for him. This show has been the Ken is a Great Guy show lately, something we haven't seen since Mike in Worlds Apart. The run-in with Lucy could have been edited waaaay differently (portraying her as less bossy and him more wishy-washy). They gave Jessica's gratitude scene to him. He was David's first connection in the early going. If this season's edit is a response to Michele's last season, our winner might be right here.