LAST EDITED ON 12-15-15 AT 08:59 PM (EST)I think that Kelley will make it through the first TC, at F6, without having to play her idol. I think that Kimmi and Kelley are solidly with each other, at least Kimmi seemed to be in a secret scene. They wanted Spencer out the last episode, but he won immunity.
So, I think at F6, Spencer is most likely to win the IN, there is a slider puzzle at the end, and if he knew how to do that last puzzle, he will certainly know the easy formula to do a slider puzzle. So, Spencer has the IN. Keith is vulnerable and he is the bigger threat to beat Jeremy and Spencer in challenges. In order to avoid a tie at F6, I think they will settle on Keith. *Note that Kimmi has her hair straight down with the buff as a headband when talking to Keith pre F6 TC.
Then, at F5, I think Kimmi may re-emphasize her all girls alliance as the only shot the girls have to win the game. We now see her hair pulled back in a ponytail, as she plots with Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha. This is when I think both Kelley and Jeremy will play their respective idols. Kelley on herself, and then Jeremy will play it on Spencer IF he wins the IN, or Jeremy will play it on himself if he doesn't have the IN. Regardless, Kelley, Jeremy, and Spencer will all be immune, and 3 votes will go to Kimmi, while 2 votes will go to Tasha. Boot at F5: Kimmi.
F4: Kelley/Jeremy/Spencer/Tasha.