The Amazing Race   American Idol   The Apprentice   The Bachelor   The Bachelorette   Big Brother   The Biggest Loser
Dancing with the Stars   So You Think You Can Dance   Survivor   Top Model   The Voice   The X Factor       Reality TV World
   
Stop WAR in Ukraine ! http://twitter.com/@euromaidan
PLEASE NOTE: The Reality TV World Message Boards are filled with desperate attention-seekers pretending to be one big happy PG/PG13-rated family. Don't be fooled. Trying to get everyone to agree with you is like herding cats, but intolerance for other viewpoints is NOT welcome and respect for other posters IS required at all times. Jump in and play, and you'll soon find out how easy it is to fit in, but save your drama for your mama. All members are encouraged to read the complete guidelines. As entertainment critic Roger Ebert once said, "If you disagree with something I write, tell me so, argue with me, correct me--but don't tell me to shut up. That's not the American way."
"Season 31 - Second Chances: The Ch..."
Email this topic to a friend
Printer-friendly version of this topic
Bookmark this topic (Registered users only)
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Conferences Survivor Spoilers Forum (Protected)
Current Message

television2 2 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"

12-01-15, 00:30 AM (EST)
Click to EMail television2 Click to send private message to television2 Click to view user profile Click to check IP address of the poster
106. "RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha..."
LAST EDITED ON 12-01-15 AT 00:33 AM (EST)

>Michel, you are a master at
>the intro, and what it
>signifies and what is a
>positive vs a negative. I
>am in awe, and each
>week I can't wait to
>hear your take on it.
>Sometimes it's blatant enough for
>me to get, but sometimes
>not! Keep up that good
>work!
>
>Nice hearing about the application of
>Buddism into the story with
>rebirth. Yes, Kelley and Spencer
>have had their stellar moments,
>and I feel that Jeremy's
>is yet to come, but
>with his allies being targeted,
>it won't be long!
>
>Jeremy is a very interesting character
>regarding the editing. I think
>all of us look at
>him, and we see the
>way he is seriously playing
>this game, how focused he
>is, and see him as
>a threat, so we ask
>ourselves, why doesn't anyone else,
>besides Ciera, see it? Got
>to be his social game.
>He is the paternal one
>out there, in regard to
>the comic relief Grand-pa out
>there, Keith. It's easy to
>forget that the two are
>BOTH firefighters. In addition to
>Kimmi, they are the only
>parents out there, as well.
>
>
>Interesting what it is coming down
>to, you noted that the
>original tribes are evening out
>in numbers as well.

Well, last week I was so perplexed by Stephen's seeming turn of fortune and what it meant for the editing that I actually thought for a second he could be getting a winner's edit. The way it's shaking out now makes much more sense in terms of how the edits have gone in the longer term. I agree with you guys that Jeremy, Kelley and Spencer are the only ones with a shot at winning based on how the editing has presented them, although I'm pretty doubtful about Spencer as I'll get into below. You guys have picked apart the episode excellently as usual, so I'll just add some thoughts I have on the 'winner candidates', from both an editing and game standpoint.

1. Kelley - the case for/against (editing)

Kelley has the clearest winner's edit of anyone this season. It has been consistent, there has been 'doubt' that didn't have to be manufactured much, as she was often on the bottom and still isn't maybe on top yet in terms of alliances. She was on the bottom from the second vote and has been doing what she's needed to get by with the hand that she's been dealt, and has been doing it well. She's made one big move that has paid off in the most concise and dramatic way possible, overturning nine votes (I'm pretty sure no idol has ever nullified so many votes, right?), and the rest of the time she's been chipping away. Aside from her idol moments, she's been shown as shrewd, shoving Terry under the bus when she didn't need to (as he was going to leave before her) and jumping on the right moves. The only case against her in the editing would maybe be how much focus has been on finding the idols, which might suggest that that is the main focus of her story, not making it to the end (I and others here expressed doubt about her winning only after she played her idol so early). But the little clues (such as focusing on her when talking about there being half a month left) more than make up for that, plus her story being about the idol isn't so disconnected from winning now that she has a second one. She's getting a golden edit, and I would eat my hat if she didn't make it to the end at the very least.

In short, she checks the boxes of a winner's edit - her role in making moves has been highlighted, her perspective has been presented in a sympathetic light, there has been doubt cast on her at the same time.

2. Jeremy - the case for/against (editing)

Jeremy has almost the opposite approach to a winner's edit as Kelley's, but that's been due to his position. He's always been in a good position in the game, and never had to scramble for the numbers, yet has been shown as influential in building trust with his allies and making moves happen without painting himself as a target. He's been presented in a sympathetic light on a number of occasions, from an emotional perspective, and has been presented as a smart player, without his recent blunders being presented as dumb. Still, he said when the going got tough he wanted to have all the bullets, and this double ep he lost three, in Stephen, Spencer, and his first idol. He's got Kimmi and Tasha and another idol, but that's enough doubt to cast to either start closing his story or bottom out for a redemption arc. I guess you could ask if his barrel is half-empty or half-full! Remember that he also said he wanted all the shields he could have, and he still has Joe, another idol, and probably now Spencer, who has taken visible control and is a bigger immunity threat ostensibly than Jeremy. Spencer lost his trust in Jeremy but he targeted Stephen - does Jeremy now become someone to work with again, now that he has fewer bullets than Spencer does? Some doubt is finally being cast on his being able to win, but it's hard as someone who has followed editing for a long time to feel like his story is near over. I would be shocked if he went home next week, and the episode will be telling in terms of his endgame prospects - if he mistakenly spends his second idol without needing to, it could set up a 'he let it slip through his hands' story, or if he waits out a vote against, say, Joe, and then goes on a combo immunity run/well-placed idol play/social-gaming his way to the right side of the vote again, he can start a redemption arc. But as of now, his edit still looks like a strong possibility for a winning one. If Kelley is, say, Denise, Jeremy is Earl. Both strong winners, but built it in different ways.

3. Spencer - the case for/against (editing)

I've long felt that Spencer is getting a very similar edit to his first season - we are sympathetic to him, he's coming off as a gamer who is cerebral and competitive in challenges... but there's no long-term foreshadowing, no million-dollar quote, nothing beyond 'Spencer was on the bottom and has played well to maneuver himself this far'. This could change. At the end of this latest episode, he was shown as the architect of Stephen's demise, the biggest strategic (read: non-idol) move of the season so far. Just before the vote he said 'for things to line up the way I want them to...' or something to that effect, and now they're lined up the way he wants them to be. He's finally run at that football and kicked it straight through the uprights. The question now is, is that the end of his story for the season, or does he get the ball again and score a touchdown? Again, the next episode will be telling in how they set up both Jeremy and Spencer's reactions to this move. I'm of the feeling that overcoming that Charlie Brown futility was Spencer's function, and he will go out before FTC. But he could be getting a slow-boil late-game surge in his already hot edit.

Summary: Kelley has had a consistent 'possible winner' edit. Jeremy's edit has been 'looks like a winner on paper but is too-good-to-be-true' edit until this week, which could lead to a continued decline or a bounceback to win. Spencer has gotten a strong 'making moves as a likable character' edit but his story hasn't reeked of endgame, and this has to change next episode for him to have a chance.

Gameplay summary (in light of the edit)

If there's a final 3, and I'm playing, I want to figure out a way to take Abi and Kimmi (or, failing one of those, Tasha). Keith would be beatable on this season of strategists too. The only way I could see Kelley and Jeremy (and/or Spencer) facing off against each other is if a) it's a final 2 and b) they are the final 3. Any other choice (other than, say, voting out Joe at final 4) doesn't make sense. So the boring play is to see Joe, Spencer and Jeremy go out next (the edit will not allow Kelley to go out and I refuse to consider it as an option). I hope that doesn't happen.

I'm convinced from the edit that Joe goes soon, as we know the family visit is next and that was flagged as his exit date from the moment it was highlighted in an early show. With the vidcaps suggesting Joe is (maybe literally) knocked out of the IC, I expect him to go this week. Sure, you could play the 'now is the best time to blindside Jeremy' card, but a) they just did that with Stephen and would be dumb to do that twice in a row, and b) Jeremy spent his idol, so they shouldn't think he has another. I'm mostly convinced Joe goes next.

With 7 left, Spencer and Jeremy become the biggest immunity threats, and the biggest targets. There's enough of a bond between Jeremy/Tasha/Kimmi that the other 4 should target one of them, as Abi/Kelley/Spencer/Keith is a pretty fluid alliance comparatively. So the question then becomes, who wins immunity and how are the idols used? But that's too far in the future to break down. The best guesses I can make are:

Kelley: makes it to the final and wins: 50%
makes it to the final and doesn't win: 45%
other: <5%

Jeremy: becomes exposed as an untrustworthy threat and has it slip through his fingers: 60%
makes finals (most likely wins): 40%

Spencer: becomes exposed as the biggest threat remaining and gets voted out: 75%
makes finals (50-50 win chance): 25%

  Remove | Alert Edit | Reply | Reply With Quote | Top

Table of Contents
  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Season 31 - Second Chances: The Ch...   michel2     09-20-15       
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Jims03     09-21-15     1  
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Outsider32     09-23-15     2  
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Outsider32     09-24-15     3  
     RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   PepeLePew13     09-24-15     5  
     RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Outsider32     09-24-15     6  
         RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   PepeLePew13     09-28-15     15  
             RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   michel2     09-28-15     17  
                 Same location   Dusty2004     09-28-15     18  
                     RE: Same location   michel2     09-28-15     19  
                         RE: Same location   kingfish     09-28-15     20  
                             RE: Same location   michel2     09-28-15     21  
                                 RE: Same location   kingfish     09-29-15     22  
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Flowerpower1     09-24-15     4  
   Episode 1 - Villains Have More Fun   michel2     09-26-15     7  
     RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   Flowerpower1     09-26-15     8  
         RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   michel2     09-26-15     9  
             RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   Flowerpower1     09-26-15     10  
                 oops   tribephyl     09-27-15     14  
                     RE: oops   Flowerpower1     09-28-15     16  
             RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   Jims03     09-26-15     11  
             RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   Outsider32     09-27-15     12  
                 RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   michel2     09-27-15     13  
                     RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   Outsider32     09-29-15     23  
     RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   suzzee     09-30-15     24  
         RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   kingfish     09-30-15     25  
         RE: Episode 1 - Villains Have More ...   michel2     09-30-15     26  
   The stage is being set   Outsider32     09-30-15     27  
     RE: The stage is being set   michel2     10-03-15     29  
         RE: The stage is being set   Outsider32     10-03-15     30  
             RE: The stage is being set   michel2     10-04-15     31  
   Episode 2 - Change is Hard   michel2     10-03-15     28  
     RE: Episode 2 - Change is Hard   Flowerpower1     10-05-15     32  
         RE: Episode 2 - Change is Hard   michel2     10-06-15     33  
             RE: Episode 2 - Change is Hard   Flowerpower1     10-06-15     34  
                 RE: Episode 2 - Change is Hard   michel2     10-06-15     35  
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Outsider32     10-08-15     36  
   Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   michel2     10-10-15     37  
     RE: Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   Flowerpower1     10-10-15     38  
         RE: Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   michel2     10-12-15     42  
     RE: Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   Georganna     10-11-15     40  
         RE: Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   michel2     10-12-15     43  
     RE: Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   Flowerpower1     10-11-15     41  
         RE: Episode 3 - Let's Do the Twist!   michel2     10-12-15     44  
   Some tweaks   Outsider32     10-11-15     39  
     RE: Some tweaks   michel2     10-12-15     45  
         RE: Some tweaks   Outsider32     10-13-15     46  
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Outsider32     10-15-15     47  
   Episode 4 - Evolution and Change   michel2     10-16-15     48  
     RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   Flowerpower1     10-17-15     49  
         RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   Outsider32     10-17-15     50  
         RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   suzzee     10-19-15     52  
             RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   michel2     10-19-15     54  
         RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   michel2     10-19-15     53  
             RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   Flowerpower1     10-19-15     55  
                 RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   michel2     10-19-15     56  
                 RE: Episode 4 - Evolution and Chang...   Outsider32     10-19-15     57  
   My style   Outsider32     10-17-15     51  
   Episode 5 - Sending a Bad Message:   michel2     10-24-15     58  
     RE: Episode 5 - Sending a Bad Messa...   Flowerpower1     10-24-15     59  
         RE: Episode 5 - Sending a Bad Messa...   michel2     10-24-15     60  
             RE: Episode 5 - Sending a Bad Messa...   Flowerpower1     10-25-15     61  
     RE: Episode 5 - Sending a Bad Messa...   suzzee     10-28-15     62  
     RE: Episode 5 - Sending a Bad Messa...   Outsider32     10-28-15     63  
   RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   b1whois     10-30-15     64  
     RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   Outsider32     10-30-15     65  
     RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   michel2     10-31-15     67  
         RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   b1whois     11-02-15     71  
             RE: Season 31 - Second Chances: Th...   michel2     11-02-15     72  
   Episode 6 - Setting the Tenor for t...   michel2     10-31-15     66  
     RE: Episode 6 - Setting the Tenor f...   Outsider32     11-01-15     68  
     RE: Episode 6 - Setting the Tenor f...   Flowerpower1     11-02-15     69  
         RE: Episode 6 - Setting the Tenor f...   michel2     11-02-15     70  
   Episode 7 - It's Like Day One Again...   michel2     11-07-15     73  
     RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   CTgirl     11-09-15     74  
         RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   michel2     11-09-15     75  
     RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   Flowerpower1     11-10-15     76  
         RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   michel2     11-10-15     77  
             RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   Flowerpower1     11-11-15     78  
                 RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   michel2     11-11-15     79  
                     RE: Episode 7 - It's Like Day One A...   Flowerpower1     11-12-15     82  
   Score 1   Outsider32     11-11-15     80  
     RE: Score 1   Outsider32     11-12-15     81  
   Boots building up/surprising endgam...   Outsider32     11-12-15     83  
   Episode 8 - The Game is Always Chan...   michel2     11-14-15     84  
     RE: Episode 8 - The Game is Always ...   Flowerpower1     11-17-15     85  
         RE: Episode 8 - The Game is Always ...   michel2     11-17-15     89  
     RE: Episode 8 - The Game is Always ...   kingfish     11-17-15     86  
         RE: Episode 8 - The Game is Always ...   michel2     11-17-15     87  
             One other thing....   Flowerpower1     11-17-15     88  
                 RE: One other thing....   Rembrandt     11-17-15     90  
                 RE: One other thing....   michel2     11-17-15     91  
                     RE: One other thing....   Flowerpower1     11-17-15     92  
                         RE: One other thing....   PepeLePew13     11-17-15     93  
                         RE: One other thing....   michel2     11-18-15     94  
   Ep 9 quick thoughts   television2     11-19-15     95  
     RE: Ep 9 quick thoughts   CTgirl     11-19-15     96  
     RE: Ep 9 quick thoughts   michel2     11-21-15     98  
   Episode 9 - That was Bad@ss   michel2     11-21-15     97  
     RE: Episode 9 - That was Bad@ss   Flowerpower1     11-21-15     99  
         RE: Episode 9 - That was Bad@ss   michel2     11-21-15     100  
             RE: Episode 9 - That was Bad@ss   Flowerpower1     11-22-15     101  
   Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Changer   michel2     11-28-15     102  
     RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   Flowerpower1     11-30-15     103  
         RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   michel2     11-30-15     104  
             RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   Flowerpower1     11-30-15     105  
                 RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   television2     12-01-15     106  
                     RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   Flowerpower1     12-04-15     108  
                         RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   SquidProQuo     12-04-15     109  
                             RE: Episodes 10 and 11 - A Game Cha...   Flowerpower1     12-04-15     110  
   Another victory   Outsider32     12-04-15     107  
   Episode 12 - A Million Dollar Decis...   michel2     12-05-15     111  
     RE: Episode 12 - A Million Dollar D...   SquidProQuo     12-05-15     112  
         RE: Episode 12 - A Million Dollar D...   michel2     12-05-15     113  
     RE: Episode 12 - A Million Dollar D...   coldbrewer     12-06-15     114  
         RE: Episode 12 - A Million Dollar D...   michel2     12-06-15     115  
     RE: Episode 12 - A Million Dollar D...   Flowerpower1     12-09-15     116  
   Unbelievable   Outsider32     12-09-15     117  
   Episode 13 - The Point of "Know" Re...   michel2     12-12-15     118  
     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Georganna     12-12-15     119  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-12-15     120  
             RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Georganna     12-13-15     122  
                 RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-13-15     123  
                     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Georganna     12-13-15     126  
                         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-13-15     130  
     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Flowerpower1     12-12-15     121  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-13-15     124  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Chez     12-13-15     125  
             RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-13-15     129  
     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Jims03     12-13-15     127  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-13-15     128  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Outsider32     12-16-15     135  
             RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   PepeLePew13     12-16-15     136  
                 RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Jims03     12-16-15     141  
                     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Jims03     12-16-15     142  
                     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Outsider32     12-16-15     143  
     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   SquidProQuo     12-14-15     131  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   Flowerpower1     12-14-15     132  
             RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   michel2     12-14-15     133  
                 RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   SquidProQuo     12-15-15     134  
     RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   suzzee     12-16-15     137  
         RE: Episode 13 - The Point of "Know...   CTgirl     12-16-15     138  
             Viewing party?   Flowerpower1     12-16-15     139  
                 RE: Viewing party?   michel2     12-16-15     140  
   New thread   Outsider32     12-18-15     144  
   Finale - Jeremy Has it All:   michel2     12-19-15     145  

Lobby | Topics | Previous Topic | Next Topic

p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e - p l a c e h o l d e r t e x t g o e s h e r e -
about this site   •   advertise on this site  •   contact us  •   privacy policy   •