I've been looking at the dynamics of the tribes and how it might all come together at the merge.
We know Dan, Mike and Kelly are tight. We know that Rodney is pissed off and will want another option.
Sierra is a total free agent. She voted with Dan and Mike last time, but there's no doubt she doesn't want to be in an alliance with them if there's a better option.
On the other side, you have Hali, Jenn and Joe. Will is with them unless a better option comes along. Carolyn will likely stick with them because she's certainly not going to go with Shirin.
Tyler is a free agent with a tie to Carolyn. Shirin is a free agent with ties to, literally, no one.
So let’s say Carolyn pulls Tyler into her new alliance with the No Collars. That’s six people and they just need one more to have the majority. Sierra is there for the pickin’. They could even grab Shirin, who has nowhere else to go. Or they could exploit Rodney’s anger, though I think this is less likely as Rodney’s personality will likely turn off this group.
On the other side, you have a weak four person alliance with Dan-Mike-Kelly-Rodney. They need three people to get the magic number of seven. Who are they going to pull in? Shirin? Seems unlikely just based on personality. Sierra can’t stand them and would love to have a better option. And I think she’d fit in well with the No Collars as well as Carolyn. Can Rodney pull Tyler in? If I were Tyler, I’d go with Carolyn over Rodney any day. And maybe Tyler can help pull Rodney into the alliance with Carolyn.
I really think the alliance of Dan, Mike, and Kelly is in serious trouble at the merge. And Mike seems the most likely target now that individual immunity is in play. Or I suppose Rodney if he doesn’t work himself into the opposing alliance.