Welcome, one and all, to this week's State of the Spoiling!
This is where we gather to parse and review all of the spoiling information that have been circulating up to now, and see if we can't figure out what might happen in Episode 2. We got off to a great start last week with Tribe's Episode 1 SOTS narrowing things down to a majority vote for So. So... well done for narrowing it down so much so that most of us was able to see that So was so ripe to be booted first! (So sorry, had to do that as it was so inviting. Okay, I'll stop. So there.)
So. Let's move on and see how this week's episode is shaping up.
First, since it's still very early in the year, let's briefly meet the S30 cast still on the show. Based on the first episode, it's looking like a stellar cast.
MASSAH TRIBE (White Collar)
Max, Survivor prof and know-it-all, 37. The bigger they are, the harder they fall... right?
Joaquin, Marketing Director, 27. Just look at his last name, Souberbielle. Did they recruit him from the Westminster Dog Show? I think I'll call him Fifi from now on - Fifi Souberbielle has a nice ring to it.
Carolyn (aka Cherilyn), corporate exec. She's 52, looks 42 and has the figure of a 32-year-old. She's also mourning Leonard Nimoy's passing - check out her ear:
Shirin, Yahoo exec, 31. Claim to fame is that she made the Google calendar #1 among online calendars, which would come in handy to count down the days until she wins. Except for one issue: there's no computers in camp to use the Google calendar with.
Tyler, ex-Talent Agent Asst., 33. He talks about how surviving the greatest egos in Hollywood at the top agency will prepare him for success in Survivor. Now go look at his occupation again: ex-Talent Agent Asst. Yeah. Right. Dude's in for a rude awakening.
ECZEMA TRIBE (Blue Collar)
Dan, postal worker, 47. Wears a tiny speedo -- with the way his belly hangs over, he appears naked when he looks down at himself ... I hope he remembers that he has underwear that needs to be changed. Mocking + postal worker = he'll go postal one day.
Kelly, state trooper, 44. Luxury items brought: handcuffs, pepper spray, night stick and Taser. Hmm.
Lindsey, hairdresser, 24. Tattoos up and down her body, favourite sport is "dating", and she'd bring waterproof mascara if they still had luxury items. Not long for the game. Next.
Mike, oil driller, 38. Drill, baby, drill.
Rodney, general contractor and Tom Brady-wannabe, 24. Bro, dude, self-described hustler. Considering his short stature, he also sounds very much like Russell.
Sierra, barrel racer, 27. Also a 6'1" model, calls herself a cowgirl.
NO-GARROTE TRIBE (No Collar)
Hali, law student, 25. Lawyers are supposed to be cut-throat and bitchy, but she's an easy-going surfer. Does. Not. Compute. *rejects her as an unrealistic character*
Jenn, sailing instructor, 22. Early favourite to win just based on her name. Has seen every season, starting when she was in third grade.
Joe, jewelry designer, 25. First guy to appear on the show that looks like a Photoshop mish-mash blend of a guy and a girl ... and he's a jewelry designer.
Nina, hearing advocate, 51. Deafened with cochlear implants. Just wait for the next big storm with torrential rain and lightning with no place to hide.
Vince, coconut vendor, 32. He's the reincarnation of Greg Buis (aka 'Grog') from the original Survivor season, with one notable exception: Grog was laid back while Vince is ultra paranoid.
Will, Youtube sensation, 41. If I haven't heard of him, then he's not enough of a Youtube sensation. Next.
Last week, So got the boot. What did So think of her time on the island? As Tribe posted, So had plenty to say in her exit interviews. Nothing in particular jumps out for spoiler value, but So seems to have a pretty high opinion of herself and that Max appears to be pulling the strings with the other ladies on the tribe.
After the episode, michel chimes in with The Characters and their Stories editing analysis thread. Always useful to look back and see if we can pick up some editing trends to help us figure out who might be next or sticking it out for the long run.
As well, Tribe brings us a gathering of JP Says... where our esteemed host spouts his thoughts on the episode and what might be coming up. Some interesting tidbits from his post-episode 1 gabfest to keep an eye on:
Holmes: Tyler seems like he’s the conscience of this tribe. They treat him almost like he’s an innocent. Everyone seemed like they were yielding to him and trying to make him happy.
Probst: Surprised me. Not only have I never seen anything like that this soon in the game, I had Tyler completely wrong. I thought Tyler would be trying to get in with everybody else. I was completely off on him. Whatever he’s doing is working. They see him as some kind of moral compass. Maybe that’ll last another day, another 36 days. Who knows? He’s definitely one of the surprises. And it makes me happy because I’ve wanted him to be on the show for a while. He’s been through casting many times.
Holmes: Who gets voted out?
Probst: I think Joaquin needs to scramble fast. He’s got to work. And he’s at a disadvantage because he doesn’t know the game as well as other people. And at Tribal, he doesn’t speak so well for himself. I could barely hear him.
Holmes: He’s learning on the job.
Probst: If he can pick up the speed he’ll be OK. He’s a sharp guy. If I was him I’d go after Shirin, I’d leave Carolyn alone. But, at the end of Tribal, Max, Carolyn, and Shirin were all holding hands. So, who knows?
Now let's move on to this episode. What's going on? The title is "It Will Be My Revenge" (thanks to Tribe here).
The clues provided:
* White Collar castaways strip down and embrace their free-spirited “no collar” tendencies.
Self-explanatory - we see Max and Shirin dropping trou and go gallivanting about.
* Blue Collar castaways disagree when it comes to heavy lifting at camp,
This has apparently to do with Mike, he probably feels he's doing too much around camp without enough support from some of the others.
And these images could be related to Mike carrying the logs as we see most of them just hanging around and Mike looking glum:
* and one castaway struggles to adapt to her new tribemates
Clearly this is Nina going to war with the rest of the No-Garrotes.
Get yer vidcaps here! Episode 2 Vidcap Analysis
At this point in time, there does not seem to be any indication of a Reward Challenge in the vidcaps and promos, which means it's something boring and there's no drama to deal with.
Sheldor has a nice breakdown of the IC right here, so, rather than reinventing the wheel, I'll use his terrific work here:
It is interesting that this video promo of Immunity Challenge #2
was reversed as we see the actual lineup Left to Right is Yellow, Blue, Red
However, I was right that it was Dan diving in for the Blue Tribe and that Kelly is sitting out. I wonder if Kelly is not a good swimmer?
Blue = Kelly
Red = Nina
Looks like the order is:
1: Tyler(Yellow), Dan(Blue), Vince(Red)
2: Carolyn(Yellow), Sierra(Blue), Hali(Red)
3: Max (Yellow), Mike(Blue), Not Seen: Joe(Red)??
4: Shirin(Yellow), Lindsey(Blue), Jenn(Red)??
5: Joaquin(Yellow), Rodney(Blue), Will(Red) (with a slight lead?)
Or more likely Joe (Red's best athlete) went last and so maybe Jenn went 3rd (against Max/Mike), Will went 4th (against Shirin/Lindsey) and is about to be lapped by Joaquin and Rodney; and Joe is on the platform waiting for Will to finish?
The end is tossing the five (or maybe first to hit 3) buoys into the basket.
**** LATE BREAKING PROMO! ***
This was just posted by Tribe as I was about to post this SOTS:
To start, five members from each tribe will gather on platform. The first member of each tribe will dive from the first platform and swim to a second. Once they’re on the second platform, they’ll take a ball and run it along a rope. The rope twists and turns around the obstacle that is attached to the second platform. Once they’ve gotten the ball over the obstacle, they’ll climb the obstacle themselves and jump into the water.
From there, the players will have to maneuver the ball over, around, and through a floating obstacle.
Then they’ll swim the ball to the final platform. Once they’ve placed the ball in a basket, the next member of their tribe will start the course. When all five of the balls are in the basket, the tribe will have to shoot them, basketball-style into a floating goal. The first two tribes to sink all five shots wins immunity.
This game will be won or lost on the basket-shooting phase.
So who wins? Who knows, but what we do know is that it appears that No-Garrote finishes last and thus has to go to Tribal Council. For one, MayanSun notes that time stamps show that the photographer is at No-Garrote after the immunity challenge. Here, also, are some vidcaps that show that No-Garrote members are wearing their bags and the tree nook is missing the immunity idol that was there earlier in the episode:
Jenn looking glum and carrying her bag (it should be noted, though, that the tribes have new clothes, but this image shows her old clothes)
Empty idol nook behind Vince's elbow
Seems clear that it's the No-Garrotes that will boot someone. Based on the editing pattern, there are two likely boot options: Nina and Vince.
The case for Vince: We saw last week there was a triangle going on between Jenn, Joe and Vince, with Vince appearing perturbed by Jenn's interactions with Joe. Might he creep out the tribe enough with his actions that the tribe would rather get some peace? The vidcaps do not show any apparent tension between Vince and the rest of the tribe.
The case for Nina: Plenty of vidcaps of Nina going at it with Jenn and walking away from Hali, in particular, would suggest that she doesn't fit in very well and that combined with her age might be enough to label her as a typical first tribal boot. On the other hand, it's clear that these squabbling vidcaps took place before IC - and perhaps even a day or two earlier:
Note the immunity idol nestled in the nook in the background behind Nina. Misdirection?
You'd have a legit case for either Nina or Vince as the boot this week. I personally think that Vince's boot story could have been set up in last week's episode with the interactions between him and Joe/Jenn, but Occam's Razor suggest the more likely answer is Nina as she is a better fit for the first tribal boot profile.
Let's look at potential future caps and see if they offer any hints of whether it's Nina or Vince:
We see what is apparently Vince's hand here in a challenge that we haven't seen yet nor does it appear in the promos for this week. The other four (Hali, Jenn, Joe and Will) are visible in this challenge. It couldn't be from a reward challenge since it's clear that Nina is sitting out the IC and she wouldn't be allowed to also sit out the RC in the same three-day cycle.
So... let's go with Nina as the boot for this week.
Something to keep an eye out as things develop: Social Media and Speculation - nothing much happening there yet, other than these contestants like to get together and ham it up for photos.
The vidcaps aren't giving very much in terms of who might be winning IC or anything about the RC, so let's skip predictions for that. (Stay tuned, if anything new comes up, I will edit the info into here)
Tell us what you think! Dabo's voting thread is up now.
Thanks for reading.