LAST EDITED ON 03-21-15 AT 08:45 PM (EST)So far we can say social media's early pics before the cast release assessment has indeed been indicative of alliances. We are about to see Joaquin and Rodney. And Hali, Jenn, and Joe have been tight from the start. Mike and Sierra are close and Mike is close with the young NCs. But Shirin........this is why she can't be gone next. She and Jenn are too close.
I'll say this it appears that Mike, Joe, Dan will be one side one side and Rodney, Joaquin, Tyler will be another. Who is Sierra with? I see either Sierra or Dan leaving if Escameca loses. Rodney will sell Dan to get Sierra to vote with them for this one round. Or the guys all agree to get out Sierra.
If Nagarote loses, Shirin is the target but its not possible. That would mean Jenn didn't get close enough with her. Something big is about to happen here and its why Carolyn needs to be careful. I think its possible Hali could even go this episode if Will wants to break up Jenn and Hali. But for that to happen Shirin has to be kept in the dark. To me if this tribe loses the most likely to go is Carolyn or Kelly.
If Carolyn goes, thats a crucial number for the other alliance that is gone. If Dan is gone, then its not a big deal.
Jenn, Hali, and Joe are looking to have the numbers at the merge. Mike is gonna move from the Joaquin and Rodney tandem and take Sierra with him and reunite with Kelly and with Mike's apparent closeness with Joe the six align together. With Will as the tagalong in their eyes and Shirin now tightly bonded with them. If Dan is still there he's in that group. If Carolyn is still there she will make it known she's going to the other side.
Without Carolyn, its a nine person alliance against Joaquin, Tyler, and Rodney.
But remember, Will knows he's not in a win-win situation with the no collars so he very well could flip and also remember Joe proposed a split vote on Nina and Vince to flush out an idol if Nina had it. They would be dumb to try that again if Carolyn is still there because it's a 7-5 advantage team Joe but with a vote split giving team Tyler a 5-4-3 advantage on the first vote.
I am calling these alliances
If Carolyn's out next
Jenn, Joe, Hali, Will, Mike, Dan, Sierra, Shirin, and Kelly
Tyler, Joaquin, and Rodney
If Kelly is out next
The same group minus Kelly and Will
The same group plus Carolyn and Will
If Dan is out next
The same group minus Dan and Will
The same group plus Carolyn and Will
If Sierra is out next
The same group minus Sierra and Will
The same group plus Carolyn and Will