>Alec will not win, he'd be
>the goat in any F3
>configuration.

IMHO Alec SHOULD not be the winner and I would personally rather see ANY one, down the the one of the monkeys, snakes or crabs from the transition shots win than Alec. At the game has plenty of opportunities for any of the remaining players to make it to the end. But ANY one of them could end up the winner. Here are a few reasons why even Alec can not be counted out.

* There are 3 couples and 3 singles left with the couples clearly aligned 2-1 at this point. The singles are going to be important at some point.
* There are 2 HIIs in play, and everyone knows Keith has one. With any of the singles on board, the power alliance can flush out Keith's idol and eliminate either him or Wesley by splitting the vote (We still haven't seen "the worst thing is Survivor history..is it Keith feeling guilty for using his idol for himself and not to save Wes?)
* Natalie and Reed are clearly playing the game while Alec is quietly aligning himself with the flow of power. Reed and Nat would probably go before he does, with both couples 1) needing a single to break the other couple to avoid a tie vote as F4. Both couples would see Alec as a perfect goat.
*Both couples in the power alliance have blood on their hands and enemies at Ponderosa. I can't see Reed, Josh or Jeremy voting for J or J or Keith, Wes or Jeremy voting for M or B. *Natalie has been talking about loyalty. Could she vote for someone from either of the couples. Could she vote for someone she saw as disloyal to her alliance?
*In an F3 with Missy and Baylor, any pro-M/B votes could be split between the two since either one would have points to present in a final tribal speech.