LAST EDITED ON 05-01-14 AT 07:20 PM (EST)

Eh, the pick'em/first swap is perfectly fine. Just because they picked the tribes at the beginning doesn't mean that a swap is inherently unfair or dodgy in any way. Not gonna argue the second shuffle, though. That immunity challenge was clearly individual. It really came down to where the random element shook out (hey Susie!). Turned out it was 3-2 Fang on one side and 3-2 Kota on the other.

That second pick 'em put Crystal and Kenny in a position where winning challenges didn't matter anymore: They had Kota players to throw in the fire: Ace, Jacquie and Kelly at first and then Marcus after the draw. Even if they were so pathetic that they had to vote out GC, the losing streak gave them the numbers. There is only one word for that: ABSURD.

But that's like saying every season that had a swap is ABSURD.
-In Africa, it put Ethan/Kim/Clarence in a place where winning challenges didn't matter anymore. They could pick off Silas and then do Teresa or Frank if they wanted.
-In Marquesas, it put the Rotu 4 in a place where winning challenges didn't matter anymore. They could pick off Rob, Vee, and Sean if they wanted.
-In Vanuatu it put Ami/Leann/Scout/Eliza/Lisa in a place where winning challenges didn't matter anymore.

...And the list goes on. Obviously, every situation will have its stickier elements (which was true in Gabon with G.C.), but the general principle is the same. At some point in every season with a swap, losing immunity isn't a completely bad thing for an alliance. And yes, I realize in these examples that losing wasn't the only thing that gave those alliances the numbers. What I'm arguing is the game theory component of a Survivor swap.

The fact that Fang lost those challenges doesn't change the logical process behind all of these situations. Especially for a clearly-overmatched tribe like Fang, their only basic choice is to stick it to the dominant Kota alliance by whatever means necessary. What else are they supposed to do? It's not like they were throwing the challenges or anything. The fact that they did eventually ditch Kelly says that they weren't all about dumping everyone anyway.

And besides, the real reason why the inner-circle Onions lose that season is because they're too stupid to realize that splitting the vote between Dan/Susie might spook Susie. And all because Corinne was worried about being idol'd out of the game by Dan. They're just another example of an alliance who didn't really know how to play defense.

(I like that we derailed this into a Gabon discussion in the middle of Cagayan. Ah well.)