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"S28 | Ep02 | VidCap Analysis *No Sources*"
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-14, 03:57 AM (EST)
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"S28 | Ep02 | VidCap Analysis *No Sources*"
Here is the thread to deposit and discuss this week's vidcaps.
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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Post-Show Promo tribephyl 02-27-14 1
   Weather SpotTheDifference 02-27-14 2
       RE: Weather Sheldor 02-28-14 4
           RE: Weather SpotTheDifference 03-01-14 8
       RE: Weather michel2 03-02-14 12
 Press Images tribephyl 02-28-14 3
   RE: Press Images Sheldor 02-28-14 5
       RE: Press Images Flowerpower1 02-28-14 6
       RE: Press Images PepeLePew13 02-28-14 7
           RE: Press Images Sheldor 03-02-14 10
 Web Promo tribephyl 03-01-14 9
   RE: Web Promo Sheldor 03-02-14 11
       RE: Web Promo michel2 03-02-14 13
           RE: Web Promo tribephyl 03-03-14 14
   Regarding the Web Promo.... Flowerpower1 03-05-14 17
       RE: Regarding the Web Promo.... tribephyl 03-05-14 18
           RE: Regarding the Web Promo.... Flowerpower1 03-05-14 19
 RC/IC Explanation tribephyl 03-04-14 15
   RE: RC/IC Explanation Sheldor 03-04-14 16

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-14, 04:00 AM (EST)
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1. "Post-Show Promo"
Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor...Tony is looking for an ally...
Tony <talking to Sarah>: I've been a cop for thirteen years.
Probst: While everyone else is just looking...
Lindsey: It's awful.
Probst: ...to hang on.
Jefra: I feel like I'm living in a Survivor nightmare.

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Perpetual thanks to SF

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SpotTheDifference 949 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-14, 06:02 AM (EST)
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2. "Weather"
LAST EDITED ON 02-27-14 AT 06:49 AM (EST)

We've seen quite a bit of rain in the first episode and in the preview, so I decided to try and see if there were any typhoons in the Philippines during the filming of the season. Here are what I found through Wikipedia:

Huaning (Category 4 Typhoon) - July 4 to July 11


Isang (Tropical Storm Isang) - July 15 to July 18

Given the timeline and the map, I would say that this is the storm that we're seeing for the first two episodes.

Jolina (Tropical Storm) - July 26 to August 3

Kiko (Tropical Storm) - August 5 to August 8

Labuyo (Category 4 Super Typhoon) - August 8 to August 18

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Sheldor 4619 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-14, 03:04 AM (EST)
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4. "RE: Weather"
LAST EDITED ON 02-28-14 AT 03:06 AM (EST)

Great detective work SpotTheDifference!

> Isang (Tropical Storm Isang) - July 15 to July 18

> Given the timeline and the map, I would say that this is
> the storm that we're seeing for the first two episodes.

Agreed!

http://sagitnangbagyo.blogspot.com/2013/07/tropical-storm-cimaron-isang-update-3.html

Tropical Storm Cimaron (Isang) Update #3 (LANDFALL)
Issued (02 UTC) 10am PhT 071713
____________________________

Tropical Depression 08W (Bagyong Isang) has intensified into Tropical Storm Cimaron and is currently making landfall in the province of Cagayan. The storm was last located approximately 100km northeast of Tuguegarao City. Maximum sustained winds have slightly increased to 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Cimaron is moving northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Aurora, Quirino Isabela, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Abra, Kalinga, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan, Calayan, Babuyan Group of Islands, and Batanes Group of Islands. The said provinces will experience heavy rains with occasional gusty winds.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Storm Cimaron is making landfall in the northern tip of Cagayan Province, near the town of Sta. Ana. Banding has slightly improved although convective activity near the center is still somewhat mediocre. Nevertheless, the storm is still bringing gusty winds and widespread rains across much of Northern Luzon. Furthermore, the southwesterly flow begin enhanced by TS Cimaron is producing scattered to widespread rains across Central and Southern Luzon including Metro Manila.

Tropical Storm Cimaron will continue moving northwestward and should move into the Luzon Strait this afternoon. The system could still continue intensifying through tomorrow as it moves across warm, open waters. By tomorrow (Thursday), TS Cimaron should start affecting Taiwan and eventually parts of Southeastern China. For now, stormy conditions should linger across Northern Luzon for another 12 to 24 hours.

We'll have another update later this afternoon.
Posted by Philippine Weather at 7:03 PM
Labels: 08W, 2013 Typhoon Season

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SpotTheDifference 949 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-14, 07:50 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Weather"
I would also expect a lot of heavy rain during Labuyo. I specifically remember this typhoon as being quite devastating. In fact, PAGASA decided to retire the name just because of the sheer amount of damage that this typhoon did. If I'm not mistaken, Labuyo is the second deadliest and third costliest to make landfall in the Philippines last year, second only to Yolanda.
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03-02-14, 03:51 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Weather"
Thank you for this, Spot.
Filming went from July 11th to the 18th of August so Probst was right to say it will be a wet season. labuyo sounds like it was awful. I wonder why production wasn't ordered to evacuate the area.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-14, 00:49 AM (EST)
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3. "Press Images"
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Even without Timestamps, it's pretty clear, to my gut, that Solana is going to TC.

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Sheldor 4619 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-14, 04:29 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Press Images"
This is a Combined Reward/Immunity Challenge (idols and rewards on table)

Brain (Teal)
Beauty (Purple) sits out Alexis & Jefra
Brawn (Orange) sits out Tony & Lindsey

Brain: Spencer fills bucket and tosses bucket to Tasha who tosses bucket to J'Tia who tosses Water to Kass

Beauty: LJ fills bucket and tosses bucket to Jeremiah who tosses bucket to Brice who tosses Water to Morgan

Brawn: Trish fills bucket and tosses bucket to Sarah who tosses bucket to Woo who tosses Water to Cliff

Note: Lots of water splashing as J'Tia catches the bucket tossed by Tasha


Barely see Kass but appears to be catching water
Brice's water toss to Morgan seems to totally miss
Sarah's bucket toss to Woo seems like a very full bucket

Above note Silver Ball on the low end of the lever attached to a bucket. It appears as bucket fills the Silver Ball rises up to that steep ramp and down to the barrel.

Last person (Kass, Morgan, Cliff) walks up ramp, stands on barrel, and pours water into bucket attached to lever that will raise metal shiny ball up to ramp down to another barrel.

Guessing here: Last person then walks over to beam in front of the round maze. There are 2 ropes attached to each side of the round maze. In the center is a sideways "S" (you can only see this in the distant shot from the water if you zoom way in) that I believe is holding up something like a lever.

Using the 2 ropes I believe the last person navigates that lever through the round maze out of the maze and can then raise the tribe's flag.


Above: See 2 ropes on each size of round maze


I believe Brawn is doing the best so far. Brawn has the best lineup and skill (look at that nice arc of water from Woo's bucket right into Cliff's bucket). Cliff has longest reach for catching the water.

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Flowerpower1 4361 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-14, 07:48 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Press Images"
Wow, the press images are hitting us over the head with the losers. There is not one press image of anyone in another camp other than the shots in Solana. I agree, it easy to see that the Beauty's are going down when we have Brice throwing the water like this....

As for the reward, I sure wouldn't be surprised with the weather forecast if there is a tarp among the items. Brawn is looking good.

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02-28-14, 11:47 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Press Images"

>
>I believe Brawn is doing the best so far. Brawn has
>the best lineup and skill (look at that nice arc of
>water from Woo's bucket right into Cliff's bucket).
>Cliff has longest reach for catching the water.

Agree that it looks like the Brawn team is in the best position so far and have the inside track of winning this challenge at first glance. (As an aside, I'd switch Woo and Cliff if I were on that team -- having Cliffy in the middle would make for shorter tosses from not only between him and Woo, but also from Sarah to him for better control of the bucket)

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Sheldor 4619 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-14, 06:26 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Press Images"
>(As an aside, I'd switch Woo and Cliff if I were on that
>team -- having Cliffy in the middle would make for
>shorter tosses from not only between him and Woo, but
>also from Sarah to him for better control of the
>bucket)

I thought the same too at first and also thought Cliff could nearly pour his bucket into Woo's if they switched places. However then I looked at Cliff's shoes! His shoes are nearly as big as that top step! Look how small that thing is that Woo is standing on. Cliff would have a hard time balancing on that!

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-14, 05:08 PM (EST)
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9. "Web Promo"
Announcer: CBS, Wednesday.
Jeff Probst: Go!
Announcer: The new season of Survivor has begun.
Probst: You need to pick this up!
Announcer: Brawn, Beauty, Brains
J'Tia: This tribe is pretty much a complete disaster but it's entertaining.
Announcer: Who will have what it takes to weather the storm?
Jefra: I feel like I'm living in a Survivor nightmare. It's really, really, really hard.
Woo: The rain is gnarly, it's terrible, but this what Survivor's all about baby!


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Sheldor 4619 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-14, 06:47 AM (EST)
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11. "RE: Web Promo"
Thanks tribephyl for posting the web promo screen caps!

Even though Tasha's bucket toss to J'Tia seems to drench J'Tia


...and Spencer slips and falls down filling their bucket with water...

...and J'Tia lets go of her bucket while attempting to toss the water to Kass...

J'Tia: This tribe is pretty much a complete disaster but it's entertaining.

I really think the promo department is just trying to make us think Brains does badly in this challenge.


In the background you can see that J'Tia makes a good toss of water to Kass



Whereas Brice seems to want to see Morgan in a wet t-shirt!!!



I also think the contrast of how Jefra handles the bad weather and how Woo handles the bad weather...

Jefra: I feel like I'm living in a Survivor nightmare. It's really, really, really hard.

Jefra: It's really, really, really hard.

Woo: The rain is gnarly, it's terrible, but this what Survivor's all about baby!

Woo: but this is what Survivor's all about baby!

...tells us that Beauty probably lost the Immunity challenge and Brawn probably won!

I LOVE Woo's attitude. Too bad he only got ONE confessional in the double episode!

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michel2 4529 desperate attention whore postings
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03-02-14, 04:07 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: Web Promo"
I agree completely with you, Sheldor but I'd say that production wanted that wet T-shirt contest the moment they designed this challenge. It would be quite funny to see Brains win their first immunity in a challenge that requires so little brains, at least as far as we're shown.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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03-03-14, 02:18 AM (EST)
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14. "RE: Web Promo"
What we're shown is only the first half of the challenge.

The water buckets are part one.
The circle puzzle is part two.
Brains, Spencer, and Brawns, Sarah, are the winners.
Personally, I believe the Brains trounce the competition.
Slowly, the Brawn follow and the Beauties end up having to go to TC.

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Flowerpower1 4361 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-14, 09:06 AM (EST)
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17. "Regarding the Web Promo...."
Regarding the web promo, I noticed a case for the CTGirl Theory. For those of you that may not remember it, CT Girl noted that often the boot is squeezed in strategically right smack in the middle of the vidcaps, in a single or several frames.

With that in mind, the web promo first notes that Survivor has begun, and we see Jiffy start the challenge, and we hear him commenting on the challenge, "you need to pick it up". Then we have the big question, will the Brains survive, with a comment from J'Tia, this tribe is a complete disaster but entertaining....then we have the question of the hour...Who will have what it takes to weather the storm?, and we see all kinds of shots at Camp Beauty and Camp Brawn, but squeezed right smack in the middle of these shots is this vidcap:

A case for the CT Girl Theory....

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-14, 05:05 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Regarding the Web Promo...."
I thought of this too. And solely because of this cap and CT's-theory do I believe Brice could indeed be the boot.
I can't find a clear route to that conclusion but I could be trying to wedge puzzle-pieces in, rather than seeing where it actually fits.
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Flowerpower1 4361 desperate attention whore postings
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03-05-14, 06:49 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Regarding the Web Promo...."
I really don't know either, Tribe. Clearly the shot of the 5 of them moving the boat on shore could be just without Brice in the frame, he certainly could be there.

But, I am not sold on Jefra being the boot either. I kind of got a vibe that Brice was stirring up trouble last week. I can't go back and view it because I accidentally erased my tivo'd episode, and I don't want to watch the whole 2 hours on line, just to find the scenes with Brice.

I also got the impression that Jeremiah was quite impressed with Morgan, but I didn't get the vibe that he was solid with Brice and Morgan at all. I felt he agreed because he was asked. What else could he do, say no, I don't want to be with you and Morgan? So, I am not sold that Morgan, Jeremiah, and Brice are a solid three.

Clearly, Jefra seems at risk this week, no doubt about it. I am convinced it is either her or Brice. Makes sense that it would be her, as one of the girls that appears to be the weakest...breaking down with the storm and all.

Another thing to think about is their challenge performance. Brice and Morgan are both doing horribly, at least it appears that they are. Brice can't throw it, but Morgan is more concerned about getting her face splashed then moving the bucket to catch the water....can't blame the sit outs for that.

I am torn.

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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-14, 05:25 PM (EST)
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15. "RC/IC Explanation"
Jeff Probst: We are here for the rehearsal of Mazed and Confused

John Kirhoffer (Challenges Producer): The way it works is four players pick up some water. They throw it to a series of people who put it into a bucket on a teeter totter. Once that bucket is filled, the teeter-totter will drop, raising a ball which will drop onto the top of a barrel. Two players will run up to a big spinning vertical maze. The two players will use a rope to manipulate that maze counter clockwise and clockwise until the ball comes out the bottom. The first two tribes to get through win

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Sheldor 4619 desperate attention whore postings
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03-04-14, 05:57 PM (EST)
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16. "RE: RC/IC Explanation"
Thanks tribephyl!

I got just about all of the parts of this challenge correct but I did not anticipate that the silver ball would stay in that vertical maze. Nice challenge!

For the Dream Teamers the 2 people pulling on the ropes of the vertical maze are also the first player and the last player in the bucket brigade so I wonder if that is a requirement or was that just because all three teams put their best players 1st and 4th on the most physical part of the challenge?

If they have to use the 1st and 4th person then doing the vertical maze will be:

Brains: Spencer & Kass
Beauty: LJ & Morgan
Brawn: Trish & Cliff

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