Good points FP. However, in your scenario the re-vote would be:Votes for Hayden: Tyson and Ciera
Votes for Monica: Katie and Gervase
That gives the 66% advantage to team Gervase, Katie and Hayden since only Katie would be drawing.
Why wouldn't Tyson or Ciera (or both) simply switch their vote to Monica to avoid that 66% chance that one of them will pull the White rock?
Monica is a challenge beast and has been on the bottom of all voting discussions.
In my scenario the re-vote is:
Votes for Hayden: Tyson and Gervase
Votes for Monica: Katie and Ciera
Here I can see both sides willing to risk drawing rocks.
That gives the 66% advantage team Tyson, Gervase and Monica since only Tyson would be drawing. I think Tyson would like 66% for him vs 66% against him in your scenario.
Hayden, Katie, and Ciera would be willing to take the long shot 33% chance that Tyson draws the White Rock vs voting out Hayden (Katie would never vote for Hayden and Ciera would have flipped to vote with Hayden and Katie knowing a tie was inevitable so why would she flip yet again)