LAST EDITED ON 04-23-13 AT 08:59 AM (EST)

Flo Po pointed out the angle of the poles at the challenge. If you compare hand holds on the ropes in the bid caps, you can see that Dawn and the others have about 6" of rope under the last knot. When you look at the shots of Cochran, the rope is so long under the last knot that it extends out of the picture. With that kind of advantage it would be hard for Cochran to lose the challenge.
Interesting thought, dabo, on Sherrie having a HII. I really think Reynold finds one, so they could both have been re-hidden and found, or it could just be Sherrie seeing herself as the swing vote -- the one calling the shots as to which faction takes control. Reynold's pitch ("if we have Erik and we had you") makes it sound like Erik is the 4th Amigo and she would be the one to break the 4-4 tie. This seems to fit the quote more than the HII since she isn't enough of a threat to be high on either side's boot list at the moment and would only be able to get her as far as F-4.