Pepe,
That was a dynamite post! I didn't read the topic until a week or two ago, and was immediately struck by your perceptiveness at the get-go.

Here's the link:
http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/DCForumID2/7933.shtml#4

Very interesting question. If Abi goes out this ep, and the two pairs go to F4, which I agree was foreshadowed from the beginning by the editors -- either there will be a tie-breaker challenge, or one of the pairs will flinch.

Denise is the one with motivation to throw Malcolm under the bus, isn't she? She can't beat him in front of the jury. (If he doesn't win immunity, of course.) I don't know if the jury would reward her, as they could be annoyed that she deprived them of a popular choice for the win.)

I don't feel that Skupin has any votes in his pocket. Even RC said in a Ponderosa that she found out Skupin didn't back her. If his ally RC isn't behind him, not a great shot with the rest of them. And Lisa ... so many flops in her game, will they respect that? Denise has played a rock solid game. But yeah, doing what needs to be done at the end could make a great argument for her as Sole Survivor.