Hi Beebs. I am on board 100% with the following:

Revealed alliances don't succeed - I'm not holding out hope for a Malcolm/Lisa/Denise F3. I also don't think Jeff/Malcolm/Pete/ Artis and whoever's alliance of 6 will either.

Jonathan thinks he has 4 loyal people, something that we're already being shown is not true. An alliance of 4 is not strong at this point in the game anyway.

RC and Abi are shown talking together??? That is so out of character with their editing, which has made a division between the two of them painfully clear. We're also being reminded that Tandang is not one big happy family. But at this point, they do have a significant numerical advantage over Kalabaw, so it would make sense for them to go after a Kalabaw individual challenge threat during the first TC. They may not be a happy family, but they decide it makes sense to stick together for at least this one vote.

It also makes sense to go after a male this time, since even with one gone, they still have a numerical advantage over the women. No fears of a female alliance, especially with all the RC/Abi drama.

So which male? I think the comment about not letting a returning player win is misdirection. Heck, even if the two returning players made it to the final 3, the jury could just vote for the third player. So there's no reason to go after Jonathan just yet, especially since he has a HII. I couldn't agree more, especially with this last paragraph. Pointing out to everyone that you don't want a returning player to win, points out reason enough not to get rid of them now, you are just pointing out reasons to save them for now.

Kalabaw having the numbers down is on the defense, and should grasp at any opportunity. Tandang, is not united as we have been told. On one side you have Abi, Pete, Artis, and on the other I think you have Mike, Lisa, and RC. That leaves Malcolm in the middle. How appropriate!

But, we are shown that Malcolm wants to keep with Lisa and Denise. I don't think that it will be Jeff Kent, because I think Denise likes him and will favor him with Malcolm. I think that she likes him because he was the one that approached her to get in their alliance which ended up saving her. Malcolm may be able to call the boot. We also know that all of the Kalabaw's know that Penner has the idol, which Denise will spill to Malcolm. Malcolm will spill that Pete and Abi have the idol. So, who is most at risk, imo, Carter and Artis. I think it will be Carter for the reasons that Beebs points out. Carter is the fastest one out there, and all we need is a challenge that has him close to winning, to point the tribe toward him as their first boot.

I agree, Artis is not long for this game either, fwiw, imo.