A few random thoughts:

Looking good --
- Malcolm and Dense both had very good episodes and seem to be well positioned
- Lisa had some good confessionals
- As FloPo mentioned, Penner was amazing in the challenge (despite loss) and really came across as a class act tonight with taking care of Dana etc. and a good leader.

Bad signs --
- Not a good episode for RC. She's on the outs, fighting the waves alone imagery and the negative background music, she lost her IC battle to Denise, and the bug flying at her head and Peter was pretty obvious
- Wow, super bad night for Katie all around. FInally heard her speak but she lost her ally, she sucked at the challenge, and as Michel noted, Jeff totally hammered it home that she was the reason they lost. When Jeff said, who's voted out next, they immediately cut to her. Not to mention the running mascara! Gotta think she's on the chopping block next if Penner's tribe loses again.
- Jeff also called out Abi for not participating in challenges. And the whole pulling hair thing at the challenge. She's clearly being set up as a villain.

Totally agree with those who said that Dana quitting/medivacing could have been the difference tonight. Hard to make up a 2-down disadvantage.