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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-16-12, 02:30 PM (EST) "S24 Confessionals Tracker" Tracking and whatever else anyone cares to bring along. Before I start the week 1 sub-thread, voice-overs on the drive in are included in confessionals, those who had those VO's are noted with a * after their names. Greg is going by Tarzan and Troy is going by Troyzan and will be so called unless that is changed in later episodes. On the really bad side, it seems Jeff has decided to totally do away with proper main titles.   Top

Subject     Author     Message Date     ID    Week 1 dabo 02-16-12 1    RE: Week 1 Flowerpower 02-16-12 2        RE: Week 1 dabo 02-16-12 3            RE: Week 1 baddove 02-16-12 4  Week 2 dabo 02-23-12 5    RE: Week 2 parathor 02-23-12 6  Week 3 dabo 03-01-12 7    RE: Week 3 Flowerpower 03-06-12 8        RE: Week 3 dabo 03-06-12 9  Week 4 dabo 03-09-12 10    RE: Week 4 Flowerpower 03-09-12 11        RE: Week 4 dabo 03-09-12 12  Week 5 dabo 03-16-12 13    RE: Week 5 Flowerpower 03-19-12 14        RE: Week 5 dabo 03-19-12 15            RE: Week 5 Flowerpower 03-22-12 17  Week 6 dabo 03-22-12 16    RE: Week 6 Flowerpower 03-22-12 18        RE: Week 6 dabo 03-22-12 19            RE: Week 6 Flowerpower 03-22-12 20                RE: Week 6 baddove 03-22-12 21                RE: Week 6 dabo 03-23-12 22    RE: Week 6 dabo 03-24-12 23        RE: Week 6 Sheldor 03-26-12 24  Week 7 dabo 03-29-12 25    RE: Week 7 Flowerpower 03-30-12 26        RE: Week 7 dabo 04-02-12 27            RE: Week 7 Flowerpower 04-02-12 28                RE: Week 7 dabo 04-03-12 29  Week 8 dabo 04-05-12 30    RE: Week 8 Flowerpower 04-10-12 31        RE: Week 8 dabo 04-10-12 32            RE: Week 8 Outfrontgirl 04-11-12 33    RE: Week 8 dabo 04-11-12 34  Week 9 dabo 04-12-12 35  Week 10 dabo 04-19-12 36    RE: Week 10 Flowerpower 04-20-12 37        RE: Week 10 dabo 04-20-12 38  Week 11 dabo 04-26-12 39  Week 12 dabo 05-03-12 40  Week 13 dabo 05-10-12 41

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-16-12, 02:38 PM (EST) 1. "Week 1" LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 02:46 PM (EST) They did a pretty good job for a premiere episode trying to give everyone at least a moment. Bill and Kat were the only invisibles, and Kat certainly got some airtime at TC. Leading in the confessionals, alpha Colton and alpha Sabrina! Alicia and Matt also score high. Alicia* (S) 5 | 5 Bill (M) 0 | 0 Chelsea (S) 3 | 3 Christina (S) 1 | 1 Colton* (M) 6 | 6 Jay* (M) 3 | 3 Jonas* (M) 3 | 3 Kat (S) 0 | 0 Kim (S) 2 | 2 Leif (M) 1 | 1 Matt (M) 4 | 4 Michael* (M) 3 | 3 Monica (S) 1 | 1 Nina (S) 1 | 1 Sabrina (S) 6 | 6 Tarzan (M) 1 | 1 Troyzan (M) 2 | 2 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation)   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-16-12, 03:28 PM (EST) 2. "RE: Week 1" thanks so much for doing this, dabo. I have always loved confessional analysis and following the numbers. Observations: Colton got alot of attention. He got it in a confessional on the ride to the starting point of the game, and he got it from Jiffy at the start. Then, he was noticed by his tribe mates, and he confessed that he would rather spend time with the girls than the guys. He had alot of confessionals AND alot of others had confessionals about him....Matt, Sabrina. As the episode played out, we also saw that a very big event was indeed tied to him. Sabrina found the idol and then gave it to Colton. Their story is indeed entwined, and they both had the most confessionals. I got the impression that the narrators were Sabrina, Alicia, and Jonas. I found Matt's confessionals to be the most interesting. His were all about we are superior, and I am superior, and I'm in the dominant alliance and look out, and so what if that girl got the chickens.... A very cocky guy right off the block. I would say that he is the most at risk. Could this be his spike before the boot? Troyzan and Tarzan had confessionals, Tarzan's was about the trek and his medical opinion about all the water weight they had lost, while Troyzan's was reactionary to Jeff calling out the other Tarzan. I thought that Chelsea and Kim both had a meaty confessional. Chelsea told us that if they stick together they could surmount, and Kim's was a nod to her adaptability...she didn't plan on getting into an alliance so soon, but the timing was there. I thought Michael and Jay both had a good showing in the first episode. Interesting that the 4 girls on the outside of the named alliance of five (Alicia, Chelsea, Sabrina, Kat, and Kim) - Monica, Christina, Nina - all had only 1 confessional. Will their minority be pre merge boots? And, of course Kourtney, she was our boot.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-16-12, 05:15 PM (EST) 3. "RE: Week 1" Two items of note. 1. They got inventive with a confessional section, four of the women in very quick succession had confessional moments when the men arrived at camp (Kourtney being one of those). 2. Bill and Kat, the two invisibles, are among those counted in the Frat4 and Girlpower5, so it is interesting that we really didn't hear from them.   Top

baddove 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 02-16-12, 05:29 PM (EST) 4. "RE: Week 1" LAST EDITED ON 02-17-12 AT 09:23 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 02-17-12 AT 09:19 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 05:31 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 02-16-12 AT 05:30 PM (EST) Invisable's tend to be folks who's story is not in play yet, or contestants whom are deemed too unimportant to get air time.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 02-23-12, 03:08 PM (EST) 5. "Week 2" LAST EDITED ON 02-23-12 AT 08:32 PM (EST) Aruga! Aruga! Aruga! As of week 2 there are no purple-invisibles this season! Last week's zeroes each had an early confessional this episode, Kat about returning from TC and the fire, Bill about the RC. And then they vanished again. Zeroes this week, Kim, Leif, Matt and Tarzan, but notably Kim had some post-IC attention and TC, Leif had some IC attention, Matt appeared briefly in recap, and everyone wishes Tarzan preferred boxers. Newly designated leader Sabrina takes the confessional count lead with Colton a close second, both break double digits. Alicia* (S) 5, 1 | 6 Bill (M) 0, 1 | 1 Chelsea (S) 3, 1 | 4 Christina (S) 1, 1 | 2 Colton* (M) 6, 4 | 10 Jay* (M) 3, 1 | 4 Jonas* (M) 3, 1 | 4 Kat (S) 0, 1 | 1 Kim (S) 2, 0| 2 Leif (M) 1, 0 | 1 Matt (M) 4, 0 | 4 Michael* (M) 3, 2 | 5 Monica (S) 1, 2 | 3 Sabrina (S) 6, 5 | 11 Tarzan (M) 1, 0 | 1 Troyzan (M) 2, 1 | 3 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4   Top

parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star" 02-23-12, 05:00 PM (EST) 6. "RE: Week 2" So if we go with the theory that having a lot, then disappearing, (and then spiking during your boot ep) means you're next, then we're looking at Matt and... Alicia, I guess? Excellent work, as always, on the recounts. I love this part of the weekly analysis/analyses.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-01-12, 12:32 PM (EST) 7. "Week 3" Things are starting to take shape, the women got their act together, the men shaped up into a sort of alliance when gravity set in. This week Chelsea emerged as the voice of the women along with Kim, Troyzan emerged in game mode, and of course Matt was the boot story. Not even much of a boot story until after the IC, though. Colton still has the spotlight and the lead, Sabrina slips back a bit. Zeroes this week, Alicia, Christina, Leif, Michael, Monica and Tarzan, though Tarzan got some good attention in camp and at TC. Bill, apparently, has a language all his own, shame we aren't getting to learn more of it. Alicia* (S) 5, 1, 0 | 6 Bill (M) 0, 1, 1 | 2 Chelsea (S) 3, 1, 4 | 8 Christina (S) 1, 1, 0 | 2 Colton* (M) 6, 4, 3 | 13 Jay* (M) 3, 1, 1 | 5 Jonas* (M) 3, 1, 1 | 5 Kat (S) 0, 1, 1 | 2 Kim (S) 2, 0, 2 | 4 Leif (M) 1, 0, 0 | 1 Michael* (M) 3, 2, 0 | 5 Monica (S) 1, 2, 0 | 3 Sabrina (S) 6, 5, 1 | 12 Tarzan (M) 1, 0, 0 | 1 Troyzan (M) 2, 1, 3 | 6 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-12, 12:42 PM (EST) 8. "RE: Week 3" Well, the trend so far seems to be hiding the boot in their pre-boot episode. Nina got one confessional in the first episode and was gone the next, Matt got 0 confessionals and was gone the next, who has 0 confessionals in this episode: Alicia, Christina, Leif, Michael, Monica, and Tarzan. Well, we know because of the promos in the water basketball challenge that Alicia, Christina, Leif, Michael, and Tarzan will all be around. That leaves Monica as most at risk IF they are hiding our boot in the pre-boot episode. If one wants to consider those with a spike as at risk, we would have to consider...Chelsea, Kim, and Troyzan. Of these three I think that Chelsea and Troyzan have made the bigger spike. Are they starting their story line, or are they at risk. Chelsea, Kim, and Troyzan all have a presence in the promos...ominous or no?   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-06-12, 01:40 PM (EST) 9. "RE: Week 3" The spikes in this episode strike me as good signs, emerging storylines with game on. The collection of zeroes are tougher to get a handle on. Alicia - Started strong and in the center of conflict, still shown as having conflict tendancies but has backed off since the first TC. Perhaps she feels she is in a good spot and is just waiting to step in again when need be. Christina - Weirdly UTR after being part of episode 1 conflict and then boot misdirection in episode 2. Leif - He's basically been UTR since the start, possible story development in the works in terms of his actions and how others act around him. He got a nice wave from the women last time returning from IC. Michael - Weirdly UTR after a strong start, a mix of good and bad attention, but not even any boot misdirection angle on him in episode 3. Monica - Got some decent attention in episode 3, should have had at least one confessional, odd. Tarzan - Shown very much in the center of things last time, very very odd that we didn't get any of his thoughts through confessionals. Why hide it? Could be good if there is a big story twist in the works, or very bad for him.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-12, 01:57 AM (EST) 10. "Week 4" Well, first things first, everyone had a confessional this week! Bill had the most, as the boot story; and as classy an exit as could be. Colton and Sabrina tied with 3, tribal management became the stories. The women had their act together for the most part, then fell apart at treemail and IC, but got back in gear. But the men were at loggerheads throughout and it progressively got worse for them despite winning IC. Michael emerged from hiding to make a smart play that then went out of control, Tarzan turned into Captain Attitude. Kim continued to have a solid voice. Leif, pulled abruptly into the spotlight, just unfortunately seem not to have a head for the game. Kat stated the obvious, even she was smart enough to figure out that the men were blowing it, and our eventual winner will probably be from the women. Alicia* (S) 5, 1, 0, 1 | 7 Chelsea (S) 3, 1, 4, 1 | 9 Christina (S) 1, 1, 0, 1 | 3 Colton* (M) 6, 4, 3 , 3| 16 Jay* (M) 3, 1, 1, 1 | 6 Jonas* (M) 3, 1, 1, 1 | 6 Kat (S) 0, 1, 1, 1 | 3 Kim (S) 2, 0, 2, 2 | 6 Leif (M) 1, 0, 0, 1 | 2 Michael* (M) 3, 2, 0, 2 | 7 Monica (S) 1, 2, 0, 1 | 4 Sabrina (S) 6, 5, 1, 3 | 15 Tarzan (M) 1, 0, 0, 2 | 3 Troyzan (M) 2, 1, 3, 1 | 7 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-12, 08:28 AM (EST) 11. "RE: Week 4" Thanks for doing this, dabo! Well, regarding folks that may start off with a bang then dip below the radar for more than one episode...this tells me that while they were in the headlights at the start, they were savvy and drop below the radar indefinitely means that there story has settled down and that it will be picked up later....I don't see folks like that in danger. However, if they have been higher for a while and suddenly dip to zero, that can spell the beginning of the end...re: Matt. We have seen that consistently through the seasons. What was interesting to me in the last episode was that when Chelsea and Alicia both choked, it was Alicia that became the target, not Chelsea. That speaks volumes. But, I think if Alicia were to be in real trouble we would have heard more from her. Going from 1 to 0 to 1 seems more consistant to me. I don't have a feel that she is in danger...really. Kim is very consistant and seems in a strong place. Monica went from 2 to 0, which was more significant, but then had 1 confessional this week....she's on the outside of the majority alliance, but, I didn't feel that she would be in danger next week... While Chelsea fell into a narrator role last week, and had one narrational confessional this week, Sabrina became the narrator this week. Kat appears very consistant, I don't see her going anywhere. Now for the men...Leif had one benign reaction confessional, alot less than you would expect...personally, I don't think Leif is going anywhere next week. Jonas and Troyzan are really seen together alot, I think they have a strong bond/alliance. Troy fell back down this week, a more positive sign, imo. Jonas had one confessional, consistant, but he had alot of presence in this episode, imo. His story is evolving perhaps. I think Michael is sitting pretty at this point....from someone that was on the outside of the misfit alliance, he certainly took the spot light and shined it on others...the old Sandra trick. He is seen but not heard too much. He's got a story yet to evolve. Jay was also a smart player...he is seen but really keeping himself in good standing...noted, "that's a hasty decision" and "I'm bum-puzzled", and in the end he voted with the majority...not making waves. He's got some life left in this game. Tarzan, OTOH is beginning his storyline, imo. He's also starting to be tied to Colton, which is not a good sign. And, last but not least, Colton. Colton's rise to power had been coming since episode 1. I think that his story arc may have peaked with this episode and may be heading south, sooner rather than later. Just my thoughts.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-09-12, 11:45 AM (EST) 12. "RE: Week 4" I don't know, Tarzan may have been established for a boot story. Captain Attitude steps in, he annoyed the women crying "luck" and "cheat." He stepped in and took charge on the betrayal stuff once he knew of it, gave Leif a talking to, was the one who went to the women. His stuff at TC was beside the point but he did it anyway, defending Colton. In other circumstances he might be setting himself up as a goat, but intentional or not he has been Colton's stalking horse, and if you can't kill the king you kill his closest ally. (Or, alternately, the king himself decides his closest ally is a dangerous rival, off with his head.)   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-16-12, 10:27 AM (EST) 13. "Week 5" Switch week, Alicia bumps up and into double digits. Colton continues to get the most attention, Sabrina has steadied and retains 2nd in the count. Jonas got a bump this week, Kim retains a steady 2. Zeroes on the new tribes may be telling (trouble/no or little story). Manono2 (M2) zeroes: Leif and Tarzan. Salani2 (S2) zeroes: Chelsea, Kat, and Michael. The single confessionals, Christina, Jay, and Troyzan, reflect different aspects; Christina is clearly in trouble, Jay and Troyzan have Michael as a buffer between them and the boot. Alicia* (S,M2) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3 | 11 Chelsea (S,S2) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0 | 9 Christina (S,M2) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1 | 4 Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4 | 20 Jay* (M,S2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1 | 7 Jonas* (M,M2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3 | 9 Kat (S,S2) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0 | 3 Kim (S,S2) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2 | 8 Leif (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0 | 2 Michael* (M,S2) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0 | 7 Sabrina (S,S2) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1 | 17 Tarzan (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0 | 3 Troyzan (M,S2) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1 | 8 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-12, 10:40 AM (EST) 14. "RE: Week 5" Boot Possibilities: Spikes: Alicia - 3, Colton - 4, Jonas - 3 completely under the radar with 0 confessionals: Chelsea, Kat, Michael....I highly suspect that the folks under the radar at Salani are there because they are safe for now, out of the spotlight and their story has yet to start up. NuManono under the radar: Leif and Tarzan, both have been hidden with no confessionals for the past 2 episodes. I think we will see one or two that go, both from Manono. Christina has had a pattern of 1, 1, 0, 1, 0....so, no real dip, no real spike. Could be at risk, but doesn't appear to be from Confessionals, imo. I don't think that Jonas is really at risk here. He has some life to live. I think that Tarzan will go via med-evac. While he didn't have any confessionals last episode, he did get some nice time at TC, as OFG noted. So, confessional analysis points to one of Colton, Alicia, or Leif as the next boot. FWIW.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-19-12, 11:08 AM (EST) 15. "RE: Week 5" LAST EDITED ON 03-19-12 AT 11:40 AM (EST) Alicia 4. The counts for switch week are divided #preswitch (switch) #postswitch. There were only 2 #preswitch because the switch occured early in the episode. Leif and Tarzan both had confessionals the previous episode. Tarzan, I should have noted above the revelation of his nominal aphasia this week. Boot decoy once again received no confessionals, but it was obvious he was boot decoy just for Christina and Monica. His nominal aphasia could explain his low confessional count, they were saving it for the TC revelation with only some hints at it earlier. We've heard nothing from him about his leg, it looks like he scraped his shin during the DIY RC, it was afterwards that he began wrapping it.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-22-12, 08:53 AM (EST) 17. "RE: Week 5" FWIW, the confessionals indeed led me down the right track this week. I really felt that Colton's arc had peaked and that he was primed for a big exit. I also felt Alicia was in big trouble....   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-22-12, 01:38 AM (EST) 16. "Week 6" LAST EDITED ON 03-22-12 AT 03:45 PM (EST) LAST EDITED ON 03-22-12 AT 02:12 AM (EST) And we lose our first *! For the most part I thought all five of them would make it to the merge, but 4 of 5. Colton's medical evacuation was, of course, much of the story this week, and Alicia, Christina and Jonas got a lot of attention this week. There was less attention paid to the Sanani2's but the women, except for Chelsea, came out ahead of the men. Zeroes this week, Chelsea and Michael. Jonas and Kim reach double digits. End S24 book 1, next week we start book 2. Alicia* (S,M2) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge) | 16 Chelsea (S,S2) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 9 Christina (S,M2) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge) | 8 Jay* (M,S2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 8 Jonas* (M,M2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge) | 13 Kat (S,S2) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge) | 5 Kim (S,S2) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge) | 10 Leif (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 3 Michael* (M,S2) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 7 Sabrina (S,S2) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge) | 19 Tarzan (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 4 Troyzan (M,S2) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 9 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation) For a different perspective heading into book 2, remaining players arranged in numerical order: Sabrina (S,S2) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge) | 19 Alicia* (S,M2) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge) | 16 Jonas* (M,M2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge) | 13 Kim (S,S2) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge) | 10 Chelsea (S,S2) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 9 Troyzan (M,S2) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 9 Christina (S,M2) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge) | 8 Jay* (M,S2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 8 Michael* (M,S2) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 7 Kat (S,S2) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge) | 5 Tarzan (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 4 Leif (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 3   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-22-12, 09:23 AM (EST) 18. "RE: Week 6" Sabrina continues to narrate. She's safe for now. Kim is going strong. Chelsea is back under the radar with confessionals but is seen and has a presence in the show. She's safe for now. Kat is steady, not going anywhere. Her story arc may begin...could she get back with Alicia, or did she already begin the demise of Alicia with admitting her dream to the others? Alicia's arc is in full swing. If she slips back into her old alliance well, she could be ok, but I have great doubt that will happen. I don't think she is long for this game. Christina has a large spike. I think she's in trouble, as Colton pointed out last week, she has no friends. Tarzan and Leif are both insignificant at this point...I don't see them in trouble this week, although Tarzan looks like he'll be a boot decoy from the promos. Troyzan and Jay are steady, not going anywhere, and apparently will have more than one option with the merge. Jonas' story is also emerging. He could be in better shape with the merge, as he will be reunited with Troyzan and he's not the most physical of the men. His story could be emerging? OTOH, Michael is well under the radar....hmmmm. He's a physical threat. He thinks he's sitting pretty in his new group, but he's actually not. He's on the outs with the misfits. He's in the same boat as Christina....he has no friends. My prediction for this week: Alicia, Christina, Michael In trouble: Alicia and Christina both with big spikes in their confessionals...5 and 4 respectively. They both do not have any friends. Look to Alicia to try and weasel her way back into the girls alliance of 5, and look to Christina to stay with Jonas. Michael, flying well under the radar, is prime for the surprise, hidden boot. He's a big, huge physical threat. He may think he's in good standing with his new tribe, but we know that he has no friends.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-22-12, 11:43 AM (EST) 19. "RE: Week 6" LAST EDITED ON 03-22-12 AT 11:44 AM (EST) If we look at it as alliances, we have the women's alliance, the men's alliance, and the power alliance. And two players without alliances, Christina and Michael, though they are de facto members of the women's alliance and the men's alliance. Merge power struggle should be the story next week, the power alliance members should be the safest. Kim, Chelsea, Jay, Troyzan. The power alliance is mainly Kim's story at this point. Plus with the merge she has the Salani HII, and the prospect of the Manono HII being put back in play became unlikely. At some point, projecting forward, the two different factions of the power alliance would want to bring in back-ups. Indicators are that Sabrina would be the back-up for Kim and Chelsea, Jonas would be the back-up for Jay and Troyzan. So they are safe. That leaves the airheads. Kat, Alicia, Tarzan, Leif, and let's throw in Christina and Michael. Sabrina, established level head leader of the women, will have none of the men's madness in her domain, and works to keep airhead Kat and airhead Alicia in check. Kat has become Gracie Allen, no worries there. Alicia as Sarah Silverman is more of a problem, more unpredictable. With Colton gone the men have lost their head, enter dysfunctional primary season, enjoy the hillarity. Jonas and Troyzan do have heads for the game and are adaptable, may join forces early, but indicators suggest wildcard Tarzan decides to be a dark horse candidate and splits away. So much for the men's alliance, but it is good for the women's alliance to let Tarzan continue to play. Unless he needs a mercy sympathy boot because of his bad leg. So, Christina, Leif, Michael, none of whom have heads for the game. Well, actually, Michael has made moves, is capable of shaking things up, though his leave it up in the air voting strategy suggestion in episode 6 indicates he knows he has a target on his back, he just had nothing else to go with. Enter individual immunity season, he's going to go all out for the necklace. If he doesn't win II, Michael should be next to go. He wins II, fallback plan. Tarzan is terminal, they could end his misery or let him hang on and suffer. Leif, despite being clueless, has shown himself to be amenable, and able to adapt. Christina rolls with the punches, she's shown she can take whatever comes her way and fight back.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-22-12, 08:51 PM (EST) 20. "RE: Week 6" My thoughts above were based on just the confessional patterns. While Tarzan is noted as annoying in the promos, I peg him clearly as boot decoy judging by his confessionals. Of course confessionals aren't everything! Looking at confessionals alone, I think it comes down to Christina, Alicia, or Michael. And, let's face it, Michael fits the merge boot pattern to a tee. But, as you note, if he should win immunity, I think it will be either Christina or Alicia. Both had spikes, but both were central to the story line as well. So, maybe it could be Tarzan? We'll see!   Top

baddove 30 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge" 03-22-12, 10:29 PM (EST) 21. "RE: Week 6" Very good evaluation of the dynamics. I will add that Christina spiked as she was central to eppy 5, both as Colton's nurse and the projected boot.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-23-12, 00:42 AM (EST) 22. "RE: Week 6" Yeah, I kind of got in a stream of consciousness mode there.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-24-12, 11:50 AM (EST) 23. "RE: Week 6" episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 Alicia* (S,M2) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge) | 16 Chelsea (S,S2) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 9 Christina (S,M2) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge) | 8 Jay* (M,S2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 8 Jonas* (M,M2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge) | 13 Kat (S,S2) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge) | 5 Kim (S,S2) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge) | 10 Leif (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 3 Michael* (M,S2) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 7 Sabrina (S,S2) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge) | 19 Tarzan (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 4 Troyzan (M,S2) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 9 Per a suggestion from Sheldor. Hey, that actually works! TY.   Top

Sheldor 4626 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Stuff Magazine Centerfold" 03-26-12, 06:01 AM (EST) 24. "RE: Week 6" dabo: THANKS! Your list looks even better than what I suggested! That makes it so much easier to analyze and compare! Here is the list sorted by confessional count (I also added a leading space so the total count lines up): episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 Sabrina (S,S2) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge) | 19 Alicia* (S,M2) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge) | 16 Jonas* (M,M2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge) | 13 Kim (S,S2) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge) | 10 Chelsea (S,S2) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 9 Troyzan (M,S2) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 9 Christina (S,M2) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge) | 8 Jay* (M,S2) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge) | 8 Michael* (M,S2) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge) | 7 Kat (S,S2) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge) | 5 Tarzan (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 4 Leif (M,M2) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge) | 3   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-29-12, 01:47 AM (EST) 25. "Week 7" LAST EDITED ON 03-29-12 AT 02:06 PM (EST) Interesting movement this week, but first of all: Whoa, actual full (sort of) Main Credits! I knew we had reached the jury stage immediately, because why else. For the record, though, order of appearance: Chelsea, Christina, Sabrina, Kat, Alicia, Kim, Jay, Michael, Troyzan, Leif, Jonas, Tarzan. No boot order, of course, but they stuck with the Men v Women angle despite how the episode played out. Storywise, the episode played out as Salani2 set out to pagong Manono2. Whu? Another * lost this week, color me surprised (it wasn't Alicia). Boot story Jonas got a lot of attention this week, but surging up in the ranks were Chelsea, Troyzan and... Tarzan. Chelsea and Troyzan (yup) reach double digits. Merged tribe name is Tikiano. Dumb and essentially meaningless, who thought of that? episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1 | 17 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3 | 12 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0 | 8 Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1 | 9 Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0 | 5 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1 | 11 Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0 | 3 Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1 | 8 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1 | 20 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3 | 7 Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4 | 13 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation)   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 03-30-12, 08:28 AM (EST) 26. "RE: Week 7" LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 07:14 AM (EST) Wow, this is going to get GOOD! For me, the biggest changes in confessionals is what may signal the end, either a large dip, or a large spike. And, we have options this episode. Let's start with the dips... 1. Alicia: dips by 4 confessionals...almost completely under the radar. The only confessional she had was the first confessional because she was the most at risk. She could easily be the next boot. Just when she now believes she is back in with the girls and all is well. A blindside doesn't necessarily mean that we will be blindsided, it means that the DAW will be. And, if she were booted, she would be seriously blindsided, imo. OFG Theory fits. 2. Christina: dips by 4 confessionals and completely under the radar. Essentially for the same reasons that Alicia did...girls are back in control. But, Christina is the one that could jump ship and vote with the guys. I don't see her going this week. But, with that large of a dip, she could. And, I think she may be having a greater sense of security now too, which would mean that she could fit the bill and be blindsided. 3. Kat: She falls 2 confessionals, which I might add are the most that she's ever had, and goes to 0, under the radar. We saw her come in second to Troy in the IC, and did the best in the RC. She could indeed be a target, AND, we hear talking about taking out threats....ironic if she gets taken out by the guys as a threat. It would be a blindside, too. OFG fits. 4. Kim, Leif, Sabrina: All have only 1 confessional dip....staying steady in my opinion. Should all be safe this week...imo. Jay is steady, no change, he is safe, imo. Now let's look at the additional confessionals for the week... 5. Michael goes from 0 to 1. Not much of a change, steady, I would bet that the biggest challenge threat out there is safe this week. After last TC, he wouldn't be blindsided, he knows that other consider him to be a threat. 6. Tarzan moves from 1 to 3 confessionals this week. He was central to the story line last week as the boot decoy. His story could be unfolding. I don't think he is long for this series, but I don't think he would be surprised at his own demise either...I am betting that Tarzan will live to see another episode. Biggest SPIKES: 7. CHELSEA: Goes from under the radar to 3. Is her story emerging? She would qualify for a huge blindside....she's a girl in the majority AND, she's in the core 4 alliance. She meets the OFG criteria. 8. TROYZAN: Talk about the biggest blindside of all! WOW, if he is the boot. He is coming off the biggest episode of all, winning the IN, and then finding the HII. He went from 1 to 4 confessionals. His story is up and running now! He couldn't feel safer in the core 4 and with a HII. Clearly, he would be blindsided. He fits with the OFG criteria as well. *I also wanted to add that Troyzan got confessionals because he WAS the story...winning the IN and the HII. I don't want folks to think it's "got" to be him....fwiw. These are how the CONFESSIONALS place the boot prospects...imo: Safe: Kim, Leif, Sabrina Some risk: Tarzan, Christina, Michael Most risk: Alicia, Kat, Chelsea, Troyzan ETA: Interesting how the new promo looks as though the girls will take out a guy that they are aligned with , either Jay or Troyzan. But, taking into consideration confessionals, they point to Troyzan while Jay is safe. While Troy is the only guy there that is a major player, Chelsea is there as well, and she's one of the major players as well. Food for thought...   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-02-12, 02:06 AM (EST) 27. "RE: Week 7" LAST EDITED ON 04-02-12 AT 02:07 AM (EST) Interesting idea, let's rank them according to short term memory, so who got the most attention last week criterion. Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 4 | 13 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0, 0, 3 | 12 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 3 | 7 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1 | 20 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 4, 5, 1 | 17 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1 | 11 Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1 | 9 Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1 | 8 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 4, 0 | 8 Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0 | 5 Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0 | 3 Curious that both Chelsea and Michael are back in the running after two weeks of being UTR.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-02-12, 10:37 AM (EST) 28. "RE: Week 7" Since this is the thread where we discuss all things related to confessionals, I count that Kim is going to have a spike in confessionals next week, looking at her in the vidcaps....what could that hint at, if anything? Kim could be the one that is played....Kim could take control of the game, and we see how she is going to do it? Kim is being set up next week for a big fall the next week....is Kim setting up to be the target soon, and if so, will she play her idol? Lots of possibilities to ponder...   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-03-12, 00:26 AM (EST) 29. "RE: Week 7" There's getting played and there's getting played and there's getting played. Yes, the smart or just more knowledgeable players should be looking to "play" Kim, as in try to get her to make decisions favorable to them, unfavorable to others. Or just pressure her with something and see where she goes with that, and what does that tell you about your position in Kim's world? "Get played" is just something I can't figure out what they mean by it, just too coy.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-05-12, 11:35 AM (EST) 30. "Week 8" LAST EDITED ON 04-05-12 AT 11:42 AM (EST) Wow, what a week! Big bumps this week for Jay and Kim, major got played player Troyzan gets a fair amount of attention as well. Jay reaches double digits as they set up a possible boot story for next week. Boot story Michael got a sap edit with only 2 confessionals, while Airheads Alicia and Kat zeroed for the week. Three * boots in a row, only two remain, will a fourth * (Alicia or Jay) get the boot next week? Or will Chelsea finally get her wish and be rid of Tarzan? episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1, 0 | 17 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3, 2 | 14 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0, 1 | 9 Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1, 4 | 13 Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0, 0 | 5 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5 | 16 Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0, 1 | 4 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1, 1 | 21 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3, 1 | 8 Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4, 3 | 16 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 ep 8. Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1, 2 | 10 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation)   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-10-12, 07:35 AM (EST) 31. "RE: Week 8" My take with the confessionals. As has been pointed out, if they are trying to hide a boot in the pre-boot episode, the boot's confessionals will dip, if not disappear. If the bootee is not a significant player, and really doesn't have much of a story, the dip in confessionals may not even be that significant....ex: Michael. Or, the boot's story will start to evolve prior to their boot, and we will see a spike. Sometimes, as was the case with Troy a few weeks ago, he spiked because he was integral to the story....he had so many confessionals because he found an HII, and he won the first IC. With that being said, we know that the major players are Kim/Chelsea/Troy/Jay/Sabrina. So, we would expect them all to go out with a "bang" so to speak. At least they should not be dismissed. This week, 2 of them are the most at risk with a large confessional spike: Kim and Jay. One or both of them could be integral to the story this week, so these spikes could be misleading....or not. If I had to pick the most at risk, certainly it would be Jay. Alicia, Chelsea, Christina, Kat, Leif, Sabrina, and Troyzan all look steady to me, and at low risk. Clearly, post merge, Troyzan is part of the story....but, I think that he is safe this week. Dips: Tarzan went from his peak confessional episode with 3 to just one last week. That is significant for a non-significant player. He could be our "hidden" boot this week. Here's where I think the confessionals lead: Some risk: Alicia/Christina at risk: Jay/Tarzan   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-10-12, 01:14 PM (EST) 32. "RE: Week 8" The old switcheroo. In terms of bumps, which seems to be the post-merge pattern at this point, Jay and Kim would be most at risk, with Troy and Chelsea not far behind. Christina and Leif got minor bumps the last episode. If we are looking for a hidden boot, Airheads Alicia and Kat are prime candidates this week. There are now only two remaining * players, Alicia and Jay. It is unprecidented of the editors to select intro VO's of no players who go deep in the game, but it is beginning to look like they switched things up this season.   Top

Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-11-12, 01:14 AM (EST) 33. "RE: Week 8" Yes, it is strange, dabo! I have been watching the early confessionals in Ep 1 closely since maybe PEI, definitely the Cooks had a very clear bias towards long term players. Yul (winner) Ozzy (runner-up), Sundra (F4), and Parvati (F6) got to be spokespersons from their tribes as they rowed towards their camps. I think it is not always a confessional in the very first segment though. I look at the * confessionals as continuing through the point where they arrive at camp and start playing. This includes the line-up with Jeff and the trek to the camps. Chelsea got a good confessional in that segment, and I think she goes deep. Kim also got one on the trek about falling into an alliance unplanned. I count all of those. I would have to go back and view it again to get the names of all those.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-11-12, 10:57 AM (EST) 34. "RE: Week 8" LAST EDITED ON 04-11-12 AT 10:58 AM (EST) Looking at patterns. Kourtney 2 | 2 First eliminated so no pattern. Nina 1, 3 | 4 Low then boot story. Matt 4, 0, 3 | 7 High, then invisible, then boot story. Bill 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 Invisible, low, low, boot story. Monica 1, 2, 0, 1, 2 | 6 Low numbers, invisible, repeat. Colton 6, 4, 3, 3, 4, 5 | 25 High numbers throughout. Jonas 3, 1, 1, 1, 3, 4, 3 | 16 Started strong, steady low streak, then back in the spotlight after the switch. Michael 3, 2, 0, 2, 0, 0, 1, 2 | 10 Started strong, invisible, back, invisible, invisible, low bump then boot. Remaining players. Alicia 5, 1, 0, 1, 4, 5, 1, 0 | 17 Eratic, currently avoiding spotlight. In danger if they return to early boot pattern of low attention then boot story bump. Chelsea 3, 1, 4, 1, 0, 0, 3, 2 | 14 Eratic, went invisible for a couple of episodes, then back with a more steady apparent pattern. Probably safe this round but the invisible streak is troubling, back on the radar pattern. Christina 1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 4, 0, 1 | 9 Steady at low/invisible but with a bump relative to Colton's medical evacuation, was at risk but his departure spared her. Bumped back low after an invisible, in danger if they return to the early boot pattern (along with Alicia). No prospect of winning the game. Jay 3, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 4 | 13 Strong start, very steady low 1s afterwards, big bump. At risk in the back on the radar pattern of Monica, Jonas, Michael. Kat 0, 1, 1, 1, 0, 2, 0, 0 | 5 Steady invisible/low pattern. Should be safe this round. No prospect of winning the game. Kim 2, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 1, 5 | 16 Steady low with early 2nd ep invisible, then big bump. Should be considered at risk but it could also be a longer story arc heading toward endgame, surprising she didn't get more attention post-switch as that was when the game fell into her lap. Leif 1, 0, 0, 1, 0, 1, 0, 1 | 4 Steady low/invisible pattern. Should be safe this round. No prospect of winning the game. Sabrina 6, 5, 1, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1 | 21 Started high then steadied at low. Should be safe this round. Tarzan 1, 0, 0, 2, 0, 1, 3, 1 | 8 Steady low/invisible, bumped up at merge then back down. At risk if they return to the early boot pattern. No prospect of winning the game. Troyzan 2, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 4, 3 | 16 Steady low patterns bumping into radar post-merge. At risk.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-12-12, 11:50 AM (EST) 35. "Week 9" Tarzan reaches double digits. Alicia is our last remaining *. And Christina and Leif were invisible this time. Kim and Troy got the most attention this week, along with boot story Jay. His biggest mistake was revealing to Kim that Troy had and was going to play his HII. As for the remaining players: Minor bump for Alicia. Steady attention on Chelsea, struggling with the game. Good for her. Christina is under the radar until her turn comes. Big bump for Kat, amazingly showing now at long last she does have her head in the game. Kim has the control position, can she keep control? Leif is under the radar just waiting his turn. Sabrina bumps up, head in the game, influencing what she can. Tarzan, astonishingly, bumps up slightly, but not in an annoying way, and seems to actually grasp the situation, playing for time and to see if he can turn some tables. Troy, maniac of the last episode, playing a desperate game, very at risk for a crash and burn. That said, should he prevail in the next IC, and he has shown that he can do so, last remaining * Alicia could go next in this very unusual seasonal edit. Of course, Leif and Tarzan would be on the block should the Pagonging of the men continue. Let's see what the hype machine pukes up this week. episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1, 0, 2 | 19 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3, 2, 3 | 17 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0, 1, 0 | 9 Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0, 0, 2 | 7 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5, 5 | 21 Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0, 1, 0 | 4 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1, 1, 3 | 24 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3, 1, 2 | 10 Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4, 3, 5 | 21 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 ep 8. Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1, 2 | 10 ep 9. Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1, 4, 4 | 17 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation)   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-19-12, 10:14 PM (EST) 36. "Week 10" LAST EDITED ON 04-20-12 AT 01:08 AM (EST) This week it became The Troyzan Show! Whopping bump for Troyzan who was flying high to begin with (and has now surpassed Colton). Leif establishes a new boot pattern, a no story boot pattern, victim of the game. Joining Leif in zeroland this week were a surprising lot of people, especially for so late in the season: Christina, Kat, Sabrina, Tarzan. Alicia and Chelsea are steady at 2 for the week, Kim at 1 for the week, but of course they were talking about Troyzan. Five confessionals between them, Troyzan sucked up all the rest of the attention with a whopping record Nine! (Although I would note, outside of confessionals, Kat got some good humorous attention at the auction and later in group meeting had some good strategy things to say.) episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1, 0, 2, 2 | 21 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3, 2, 3, 2 | 19 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0 | 9 Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0, 0, 2, 0 | 7 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5, 5, 1 | 22 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1, 1, 3, 0 | 24 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3, 1, 2, 0 | 10 Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4, 3, 5, 9 | 30 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 ep 8. Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1, 2 | 10 ep 9. Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1, 4, 4 | 17 ep 10. Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0 | 4 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation) So, projecting forward. Alicia with the troubling * may have more story ahead, look for her to get a pre-boot bump. Chelsea is holding steady. Christina could get the Leif no story boot. Kat has a troubling pattern, very low, seems unlikely to win even if she makes FTC. Kim is holding steady. Sabrina vanished this week, keep a watch out. Tarzan's eratic pattern suggests his turn is coming soon. Troyzan, major unprecidented bump this time, is very at risk.   Top

Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-12, 07:57 AM (EST) 37. "RE: Week 10" My take on the confessionals: Alicia, Chelsea and Kim are into their story lines and going strong, as it appears. There are many folks that have dipped to zero this week, and I think many of them, it not all of them, are being set up for their "blindside, aka hidden" boot. These people are all at risk in the near future, in no particular order...Christina, Kat, Sab, and Tarzan. We know that Kat is going to come into the story next week as she is all over the promos crying. Interesting that all of these people are the "losers" from the IC that we see in the shelter in the powwow as they examine their elimination routes. Most at risk: Troyzan He has the penultimate confessional spike setting him up for his steep demise. Bummer.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-20-12, 12:26 PM (EST) 38. "RE: Week 10" The zeroes this week can be directly attributed to the Troyzan bump, he just sucked up as much airtime as possible. Leif and Tarzan getting no confessionals between them, just a brief conversation between the two of them about the game post IC in lieu of confessionals, was a time-saver. The troubling aspect is that Kat (not really a surprise) and Sabrina (I was surprised) both got zeroes as well. The game is clearly at this point the Kim-Chelsea combo, with Alicia maybe working an in to FTC. In the immediate sense, Troy is clearly the next boot unless he wins II again or finds a genuine HII to play again. No hint of another HII turning up so far, and I do think that is something they would telegraph under these circumstances.   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 04-26-12, 02:01 AM (EST) 39. "Week 11" LAST EDITED ON 04-26-12 AT 02:08 AM (EST) And Troyzan walks off with a seasonal high, conclude book 2 of One World and commence Book 3 in which the women start aiming at each other. Everyone got at least one confessional this time, no zeroes. Kat, Kim and Sabrina have spikes. Kat and Christina finally reach double digits. Christina, Sabrina and Tarzan emerge from zeroland. ETA: Oh, notably, during the pig chase Kim, Sabrina and Troyzan all had confessionals; Troy's was about how it measured the tribe, Kim was about it was a fun thing but she wasn't going to kill the pig, Sabrina was out of control thinking about bacon! episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1, 0, 2, 2, 1 | 22 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3, 2, 3, 2, 1 | 20 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0, 1 | 10 Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0, 0, 2, 0, 4 | 11 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5, 5, 1, 5 | 27 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1, 1, 3, 0, 4 | 28 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3, 1, 2, 0, 1 | 11 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 ep 8. Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1, 2 | 10 ep 9. Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1, 4, 4 | 17 ep 10. Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0 | 4 ep 11. Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4, 3, 5, 9, 7 | 37 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation)   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-03-12, 12:12 PM (EST) 40. "Week 12" No surprise, Kim is the major player and continues a high run, surpasses Sabrina in the total count. Kat and Sabrina got a fair amount of attention as the boot and diversion stories, with Alicia and Chelsea getting slight bumps. Christina and Tarzan clearly at the bottom of the totem pole but they were dealt the major sympathy cards this time around. episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 3 | 25 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3 | 23 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 | 11 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5, 5, 1, 5, 6 | 33 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1, 1, 3, 0, 4, 3 | 31 Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1 | 12 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 ep 8. Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1, 2 | 10 ep 9. Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1, 4, 4 | 17 ep 10. Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0 | 4 ep 11. Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4, 3, 5, 9, 7 | 37 ep 12. Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0, 0, 2, 0, 4, 3 | 14 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation) totem pole Kim 33 Sabrina 31 Alicia 25 Chelsea 23 Tarzan 12 Christina 11   Top

dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold" 05-10-12, 12:37 PM (EST) 41. "Week 13" Heading into the finale the tracker has pretty much worn out it's usefulness. Christina got a zero this time and is out of the running for the win, which has been evident for some time now. Alicia bumped up a bit as the most powerful player in the game (LOL). Chelsea, Kim and Sabrina maintain steady patterns with Kim being the main focus of attention. episode 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Alicia* (S,M2,T) 5, 1, 0, 1, 1 (switch) 3, 5 (merge), 1, 0, 2, 2, 1, 3, 5 | 30 Chelsea (S,S2,T) 3, 1, 4, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 3, 2, 3, 2, 1, 3, 3 | 26 Christina (S,M2,T) 1, 1, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 4 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0, 1, 1, 0 | 11 Kim (S,S2,T) 2, 0, 2, 2, 0 (switch) 2, 2 (merge), 1, 5, 5, 1, 5, 6, 6 | 39 Sabrina (S,S2,T) 6, 5, 1, 3, 1 (switch) 1, 2 (merge), 1, 1, 3, 0, 4, 3, 3 | 34 jury ep 7. Jonas* (M,M2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 3, 4 (merge), 3 | 16 ep 8. Michael* (M,S2,T) 3, 2, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 0 (merge), 1, 2 | 10 ep 9. Jay* (M,S2,T) 3, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 1, 4, 4 | 17 ep 10. Leif (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 0, 1, 0, 0 | 4 ep 11. Troyzan (M,S2,T) 2, 1, 3, 1, 0 (switch) 1, 1 (merge), 4, 3, 5, 9, 7 | 37 ep 12. Kat (S,S2,T) 0, 1, 1, 1, 0 (switch) 0, 2 (merge), 0, 0, 2, 0, 4, 3 | 14 ep 13. Tarzan (M,M2,T) 1, 0, 0, 2, 0 (switch) 0, 1 (merge), 3, 1, 2, 0, 1, 1, 5 | 17 eliminated ep 1. Kourtney (S) 2 | 2 (medical evacuation) ep 2. Nina (S) 1, 3 | 4 ep 3. Matt (M) 4, 0, 3 | 7 ep 4. Bill (M) 0, 1, 1, 4 | 6 ep 5. Monica (S,M2) 1, 2, 0, 1, 0 (switch) 2 | 6 ep 6. Colton* (M,M2) 6, 4, 3, 3, 0 (switch) 4, 5 | 25 (medical evacuation) Totem Pole Kim 39 Sabrina 34 Alicia 30 Chelsea 26 Christina 11   Top

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