OKay, I have really been working with the few vidcaps we have to try and pinpoint who is indeed at the IC post tribal shuffle, and who isn't. If we can figure this out, we can pinpoint who our episode 3 bootee is, as well as who is most likely to go in episode 4. First of all let's look at the vidcap that Blind Freddy blew up for me...

Now here are shots of the girls and guys in their bathing suits, thanks to Volcanic Glass...

Now, I am going to point to a few things in the blow up with Jiffy situated on his platform. Here is a blow up and a progression that Volcanic Glass did for us....it is clearer, and it has better color....THANKS so much, VG!

I have labeled who I think is in this shot....

First of all, there are 4 people to Jiffy's right, (left of the frame), situated in front of the blue banners. I propose that these 4 people are on the Salani/blue tribe. Then, there are 3 people on the other side of Jiffy, that we see, and they are most likely on the Manono/orange tribe.

This shot was taken when Leif vs. Michael, and Sabrina was vs. Christina and who we thought was Chelsea. I propose that the girl on the far left of the frame is approaching the action and getting into the game. I propose that she is wearing her buff around her midriff, and that she is from the Salani/blue tribe.

First of all, in the group of 4 people standing in front of the blue banners, I think we can see Kim on the far right of that group, in the black bikini bottoms...she is tall and thin. Her hips are wider and she has a very narrow, slender waist and rib cage...Next to her, I believe is Kat, she is shorter. Then I think Jay is on the far side, he's the tallest, and then I propose that the guy behind Jay and next to Kat is Troyzan. You can see that he has dark hair that is to his shoulders...see how his neck is not as defined as Jay's is...it's because of his hair, imo. (One could argue that who I think is Troy could possibly be Matt with his buff around his neck? This is debatable...but Matt, is taller than Jay...)

Then, when we go to the group of 3 that are most likely from Manono, I start with Colton in the middle, he's in the lighter trunks. Next to him, on the left of the frame, next to Jiffy, I think it is Bill. Then on the other side of Colton, I think it is Jonas, in the dark trunks. You can see Jonas at the top with his hand on his hip. Please note that Bill's bathing trunks are obsured by water and the hand.

Ok, we know there are 2 guys on the side for Salani, 3 guys on the side for Manono, and we know that Leif and Michael are competing in the competition. So, we have identified 7 guys, plus one guy SITTING OUT, which I propose is Greg/Tarzan. So, if there are only 8 guys in this challenge then the guys have to lose in episode 3, which has now been confirmed, guys lose ep 3 IC. And, the only one that I cannot find is Matt. Therefore, I highly suspect that Matt is gone in episode 3 TC. (Greg is seen in previous vidcaps before this challenge next to his tribe mate, Christina.)

Now for the girls....we see Kat and Kim back with the stand outs for Salani, and no girls on the side line with Manono. There is a girl approaching on the left side of the frame, that I believe is Monica. She has a dark blue buff around her middle, dark hair...I do believe that it is Monica, and she is on the blue/Salani tribe....I will add that it could possibly be Chelsea....Chelsea has a bathing suit that has ties on the side of her bottoms, as does Monica, and they are of similar color...(If it is Chelsea approaching, than it is most likely Monica in front of Sabrina in the challenge...)

Either way, Monica and Chelsea are both accounted for. So, definitively we have 7 girls. So 8 guys, 7 girls, Boys must lose the IC in episode 3, as has now been confirmed by noting the II in the second promo, thanks Blind Freddy!

Also, here is what I propose are the tribes post shuffle:

Blue/Salani (7 members): Kat, Kim, Sabrina, Monica, Jay, Michael, Troyzan
Orange/Manono (8 members): Chelsea, Alicia, Christina, Greg/Tarzan, Leif, Colton, Bill, Jonas

Furthermore, I am going to add just for fun, and as I have spec'd earlier, I believe that the Blue Salani tribe will win this challenge. I think I noted that it's not a good sign that the tallest guy is going up against the shortest guy... therefore, I predict that Bill will be the ep 4 boot. He is the only one that is not in the misfit alliance, and we know that Colton prefers the girls, and we see at some point that Bill and Colton have a big argument.

And, if Bill is a possibility to be the next boot we have to consider that the flight spoiler could be holding some water....less Nina.

Again, thanks so much to Blind Freddy for originally blowing up that pic, and then to Volcanic Glass that did a fantastic job with the frame and the progression! Better than I could have imagined it, thank-you!