LAST EDITED ON 10-24-11 AT 05:17 PM (EST)

***SPOILER ALERT******SOURCED SPOILERS are mentioned in this thread******don't read if you don't want to know!!!
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Welcome to the SOTS for episode 4, Survivor: South Pacific. The SOTS, State of the Spoiling is a one stop place to go and get a collective summary of what we've tried to uncover regarding the next episode of Survivor. It usually notes not only what we here at Blows have uncovered, but any interesting discoveries found on other boards as well. Please consider joining in and volunteering to do one this season, the more folks to contribute, the better our boards are. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1 Colleen,

Previously on Survivor, seemingly the Upolu tribe and the Savaii tribe have both done a 180. The “every man/woman for themselves" tribe, Savaii, is now the newly unified tribe, while the formerly unified Upolu tribe is now a fractured tribe. Heading into stormy merge waters which tribe is poised to land on the side of the majority? Last week, Edna perservered and outlasted Mikayla. Mikayla joined Christine on Redemption Island, who will be voted out next, and who will lose the duel and be out of the game for good?
For a blow by blow of last weeks episode, “Free Agent”, check out the East Coast Spoiler thread brought to us by Brownroach.

Survivor: South Pacific
Episode 7, Trojan Horse

As noted in the Title thread brought to us by Blind Freddy we noted that after the episode Jiffy was quick to tout us some teasers:
One of the biggest moves in 23 seasons is made by one player. You can't even guess what it is. You couldn't even if you tried!!!
With all of the speculation about the BIGGEST MOVE in 23 seasons, I thought it would be nice to take a little stroll down memory lane. So, here’s my personal top ten best survivor BIG moves...

FLOWERPOWER's TOP TEN BIGGEST MOVES IN SURVIVOR HISTORY

10. Survivor: Pearl Islands. Johnny Fairplay’s dead Grandmother, delivered by Thunder Dan at the Reward Challenge...A crying Lil, seals the deal. Pulls off the greatest lie in Survivor history....

9. Survivor: Cook Islands. Yul flips Jonathan at the merge to vote with the Aitu four. Episode 10: Why Would You Trust Me?

The former Aitutaki merged at a 4–5 member disadvantage. Yul and Becky agreed that Jonathan was the best bet to flip. Yul informed Sundra and Ozzy about the hidden Immunity Idol and his plan to bring Jonathan over. Ozzy outlasted Candice holding onto poles to win the first individual Immunity Challenge. Yul decided to show the hidden Immunity Idol to Jonathan to sway him back to his side: if Jonathan did not vote with Yul and Aitutaki, they would vote for Jonathan, and Yul's idol would deflect the former Rarotonga members' highest votes and would send Jonathan home. Jonathan requested that Yul vote for Nate in exchange for him flipping to their side, which Yul readily agreed to. Jonathan blindsided his old Raro tribemates and joined the former Aitutaki members in voting out Nate 5–4.
*Note, while we are at it, for all of you doubters, this is just one example of Ozzy winning an endurance challenge....fwiw.

click here

8. Survivor: Amazon. Rob Cesternino flipping on Alex, Heidi, and Jenna. Jenna, Heidi, Rob, and Alex were sunbathing and relaxing... they were not concerned since they outnumbered the non-alliance group. Then Rob plotted with Butch, Christy, and Matt to oust Alex! Rob knew that Alex was a big threat since he confronted Rob last episode about Deena plotting to vote against Alex. Rob proceeds to turn on his new Jaburu alliance! Tribal council - Dave and Deena sat in the jury box. Jeff asked the castaways if they would be surprised if they get voted off. Heidi and others replied, "yes". Christy was asked. Her reply was "no". Then Jeff revealed the votes - Alex got 4 votes and Matt got 3 votes! So Alex became the 10th person to be voted out of Survivor: the Amazon. Heidi and Jenna looked surprised. Rob turned on his alliance to vote out Alex instead of Matt!

7. Survivor: Redemption Island. Rob blindsides Matt, not once, but twice! Matt Elrod was the second person voted out of Redemption Island, and yet he still made it all the way to the finale. The cruel irony that Matt would be blindsided early in the game, win six straight Redemption Island Duels, only to return to the game to get blindsided again?  Pure Survivor gold. 

LOSER!

6. Survivor: Marquesas. The downfall of the Rotu Four with the blindside of John Carroll.

It all started with the tribal swap, where Boston Rob, Sean, and Vee were sent to Rotu and Kathy, Neleh, and Paschal were sent to Marramu. Before setting his sites on Rob, John goes to Gabriel to discuss strategy, and Gabe says he’s not into strategy. This infuriates John, who then enlists the others and the former Marramu’s to vote with him to get out Gabriel. He doesn’t realize how beloved Gabriel was, and how upsetting it was for the swapped Rotu’s at Marramu.
Once Gabriel is out of the picture, John sets his sites on Boston Rob and Rob goes on a one-man crusade to destroy John. John wants to throw a challenge just to get rid of Rob, but Tammy will not have it. Rob lasts 6 more days and makes it to the merge. He tries his hardest to enlist support to vote out the arrogant and angry, John. Rob may have come close, and he may have caused a lot of damage on his way out, but John Carroll won the big showdown in the end.

This is John's apex moment of power. He has no more enemies left in the game (other than the completely powerless Sean). The Rotus have proven that they will stick together down to the final seven, John is completely aware of this, and he's absolutely at the peak of his Survivor experience. John Carroll now has as much power (if not more) than any other player in the history of the game, and there's no possible way he won't make the final four. In fact if you had bet money on the outcome of this season in Vegas right about now, there's no way a Sports Book would have taken your wager if you tried to bet on John Carroll making the final four. That's how obvious the ending was starting to look. So what happens next?
The ole coconut chop reward challenge that exposes the alliances, that’s what! At the time it seemed so unfair, because the most vulnerable, Sean, had absolutely no control over his fate. It’s a challenge totally stacked in favor of the majority alliances. But, little did John realize, it exposes the hierarchy to the letter.

John and the Rotu Four eliminated people one by one... IN THE EXACT ORDER THAT THEY WERE GOING TO BE VOTED OUT OF THE GAME... and it was so obvious that anybody with half a brain could have seen it. First went Sean...then Vecepia....then Neleh, then Paschal, then Kathy... Sean explained that the order of elimination was the exact order of the pecking order. If you weren’t a member of the Rotu 4, then you had no possibility to win this game. So, the writing is on the wall. Sean got Vee and the former Rotu’s, Neleh, Paschal, and Kathy to take out the kingpin, John!
He’s blindsided at TC and reduced to tears! From kingpin to reject, all in one episode! Sean had to this to say in the voting booth:
"You thought you had me, didn't you John? Well let me give you a little advice. If you ever go to Vegas... always bet on black."

John....crying at the last TC confessional

5. Survivor: Heros vs. Villans. RussHell takes out Tyson which spells the end for Boston Rob.

Boston Rob and RussHell have drawn the lines, and it appears Boston Rob has a fool proof plan to end the conflict. He instructed his alliance of Courtney, Sandra, Coach, Jerri, and Tyson to split their votes 3 for Parvati, and 3 for RussHell. Rob figured that RussHell’s alliance of Danielle, Parvati, and RussHell would play their idol and all vote for Tyson. (Rob had immunity necklace). He proposed that whoever they voted for, it wouldn’t matter as there would be a tie, and it would force a revote. On the revote, the idols are out of play, and the majority of the tribe would vote out one of RussHell or Parvati. A fool proof plan, or so everyone suspected.
The greatest move was when RussHell figures this is Rob’s best move, he pulls Tyson aside and convinces him that he has given up on his alliance with Parv. He tells Tyson that it is obvious she is going home nad is counting his losses and voting with the tribe to oust her. Tyson, not wanting to go to a tie, starts contemplating just voting for Parvati and avoiding a tie. He figures either way he won’t go home and could avoid the stress of a re-vote. Russell’s strategy was to get Tyson to vote for Parv. Russell would vote along with Parv and Danielle for Tyson. This would theoretically make the votes 4 for Parv, 3 for Tyson, and 2 Russhell. Russell would allow Parv to use his immunity idol thus ending Tyson’s game. Votes were 3 Tyson, 2 RussHell, and 4 Parvati.
Russhell got Tyson to seal his own boot, and this led to his alliance being able to take control of the tribe, and the game.

Boston Rob as Tyson is voted out...

4. Survivor: All Stars. Boston Rob bargains with Lex for Amber’s Survivor life.

The castaways were instructed to draw a random buff from a vase. By chance, each castaway was switched to the opposite tribe, with the exception of Amber, who remained on the Chapera tribe with the four former Mogo Mogo tribe members. With Amber now on the opposing tribe, Boston Rob was upset to be separated from her. Prior to the immunity challenge, Boston Rob expressed his desire to go the final two with Amber and would do whatever it would take to get her there. Rob decided that he needed to make a big move that would affect everybody. At the immunity challenge, the score was even until Mogo Mogo answered a question incorrectly. However, Mogo Mogo pulled ahead and evened the score. With the scores tied at 10-10, the castaways were asked a tiebreaker question. The castaways were asked to list the first castaways voted out in the first seven seasons. Chapera answered six out of seven correctly, however Mogo Mogo got all seven correct, winning immunity. As the tribes gathered to return to their camps, As Chapera left, Boston Rob approached Lex and offered him a deal, "You take care of her, I'll take care of you." Lex promised that he would do his best. When Chapera returned to camp, it came down to Amber, as the only former Chapera member on the tribe, and Jerri, who was on the chopping block previously due to her perceived lack of work ethic. Amber lobbied Kathy to save her, while Jerri lobbied Lex. In the end, Lex stayed true to his deal with Boston Rob, and Jerri was voted out 4-1.
Then came the merge. Lex approached Boston Rob about his deal. Boston Rob promised to keep him safe, however later revealed that he never had any intention of keeping his deal with Lex and that it was all a game so that Amber could stay. Boston Rob then approached Amber to tell her that Lex was going next. Amber was hesitant, as she had promised Lex and Kathy that Boston Rob and her would be the final four. Amber didn't want to break her word just yet and tried to convince Rob that they should play it safe by eliminating Jenna or Rupert but Boston Rob felt that Lex was too big of a threat to keep around. At the immunity challenge, Amber and Kathy moved on to the final round, along with Lex and Boston Rob. Amber struggled to unhook the seventh buoy, allowing Kathy to pull ahead and win immunity. Lex had a lead, however he struggled to unhook the final buoy, allowing Boston Rob make a comeback and win immunity. When Chaboga Mogo returned to camp, Kathy and Lex were skeptical about Boston Rob's deal. Lex felt that he had a made a potential game-ending blunder by sending Jerri home instead of Amber. Lex's worst fears were realized as Boston Rob bluntly told Lex that the original Chaperas would be sticking together and the he was their target at tribal council. Kathy was also upset at Boston Rob for going back on his word. Extremely angry, Lex yelled at Boston Rob that he had compromised his numbers at the merge by honoring his word with Boston Rob. Boston Rob realized that had Jerri stayed and Amber went, Big Tom may have possibly switched sides. Kathy felt that Lex didn't deserve to go and considered giving her immunity to Lex and sacrificing herself so that Lex would have another chance to take Boston Rob out. In the end, Kathy kept her immunity and Lex was voted out 7-2 for being the physically strongest Mogo Mogo in the merge and became the first member of the jury.

It can be argued that this move ensured Boston Rob and Amber a spot in the finals, but it most likely cost him the win.

3. Survivor: Heroes vs. Villains. JT’s letter, a very big move that backfires! It's day 11 and JT is on a mission to find the HII...needs it as he’s on a losing tribe. He finds it in the swamp...wants to use it for the first one that needs it post merge...to help the tribe. But, when they go to the challenge the Jeff asks Rupert what he thinks about the last player to be voted out, Boston Rob. Rupert replies, it’s easy to see that there is a woman’s alliance going on over there....which JT agrees.
Then, with the next challenge, again the Heroes note that Coach is gone, and that RussHell is the only man left with Courtney, Sandra, Danielle, Parvati, Jerri, and RussHell. They now are convinced that RussHell will indeed be the next one out, to fall victim to the all-woman alliance. Here is JT telling Russhell to "hang in there"...

JT decides that at the next challenge he’ll give his HII to RussHell to save himself and he’ll do it with a letter. He proceeds to write this letter....

Russell,

This is a huge turning point in this game.  This is not fake, I wouldn't waste your time or mine.
Just by competing against you and the few handshakes we've had I feel I can trust you.  That's
hard to find in this game.  Hopefully we are on the same page.

Play the idol tonight and save yourself.   All the girls should be writing your name down, so act
like you know you're going home.  You can stand up and play it right before Jeff starts reading
the votes.

I think you should write Parvati's name down and send her home.  No matter what, when you play
the idol, you're safe for the entire tribal council.

We will most likely merge at ten people and then you will be completely safe with us.  Our five plus
you will remain strong 'til the girls are done with.  We can then work on getting ourselves into the final
three.

JT vows that we're gonna make Survivor history with this one today guys! He passes the idol and letter to RussHell right after the challenge when the villains win.
And, here he is delivering the letter to RussHell at the end of the challenge...

Meanwhile, RussHell is delighted and incredulous that he is now being handed idols on a silver platter! He shares in the delight with his partner in crime, Parvati.
Sure enough, what happens to J.T. two episodes later when the Heroes and the Villains merge? Hey, look Jerri.  Why don't you use J.T.'s idol?  BFF forever! The votes are bounced to JT when Jerri, their target, plays the HII that JT had handed to RussHell! JT falls victim to his own idol!

2. Survivor: Vanuatu. The Blindside of Leann, second in command in the powerful Ami alliance which starts the downfall of Ami. “Eliza’s last stand!” Credit Chris and Twila...

Episode 11 of Vanuatu, and the game is at what appears to be beyond the pivotal point. There are 7 remaining in the game. Ami, Leann, Twila, Julie, Scout, Eliza, and Chris. For so long Ami has had to listen to those that hate the annoying Eliza and want her out at all costs. So, in order to appease these folks, Ami decides to vote out her friend, Eliza, next and save Chris for the next vote. When Twila hears this news, she and Chris start to plot and figure then, this would be a great time to try and seize control over the powerful Ami and company. So, they send Chris to talk to Eliza....

Chris goes to Eliza and convinces her that SHE is Ami’s next target. But, since they are friends, Eliza cannot believe it. Ami proceeds to win the IC and get the IN. TC comes, and we still don’t know if Eliza buys it or not. When the time comes, Eliza votes Leann, as do Chris, Twila, and Scout, which makes it 4 votes Leann, and only 3 votes Eliza. This, for me, was the biggest blindside in Survivor history....she never saw it coming and she thought that she was unstoppable. This then led to the demise of Ami as well. A shocking turn of events!

1. Survivor: Fans vs. Favorites: The Black widow Brigade fooling Ozzy, Jason and especially Erik....The downfall of Erik...

Erik is winning all of the immunities. He tried to vote out Amanda and got on her bad side. Erik and Natalie, are friends, and decide when he wins the next reward, he’ll take her with him. But, Cirie tells Amanda to go and try to make up with Erik...she does and he promises to take her on reward, which is just what happens. Now, Natalie is mad, so Cirie has a plan and offers it to Erik...

Cirie:  "Erik is promising everyone the exact same thing.   He doesn't realize we will just go and compare notes with one another."
Erik knows that he better win immunity today, or else he is toast. He knows that his future depends on it. Erik wins immunity...again! He is bound to make it to the F4! It is at this point in the scene where we officially go from comedic and sad... to "surreal."  

Because now it is time to show why the Black Widow Brigade was perhaps the single most dangerous alliance in Survivor history.

Are you ready for what happens next, mister ice cream scooper? Cirie instructs Natalie to tell him that he could never win because the jury is all mad at him.  Tell him that everyone is upset with him at this point because he has been playing everyone. “Yeah!”, they all agree. Tell him that if he were to give you the necklace, that would redeem him, especially to the jury!

Natalie convinces Erik, and later at TC...

.....Erik gives away his IN, and is immediately voted off....here is the black widow brigade reaction....

....and Erik's comment....“Man, I suck”

I can't wait to see what Jiffy's number one Survivor Move in 23 seasons is going to be....! Not that we can't figure this out, as CBS is giving us huge promos in the prior weeks. Here we go...

CBS Misdirection Clues

1. A TRIBE IS IN SHOCK WHEN ONE OF THEIR OWN MAKES A RISKY PLAY THAT WILL GO DOWN IN SURVIVOR HISTORY This clue definitely is talking about the same thing as these clues...

... while the other tribe is left in shock when one of their own makes a risky move that will go down in Survivor history.

And, finally this part....CHEAT TWEET: WOW! #Survivor history is being made. One tribe makes a risky move. Will it pay off?

All of these clues are in reference to the same MOVE. What will it be? Well, the promos lay it out for us....someone is going to make a sacrifice, and it appears to be Ozzy...

Then we hear Ozzy talking to Cochran.... I don't want to go to Redemption but if it's like a do or die situation, I will go.

It's true, in the last episode Ozzy sounded pretty committed to his tribe when he spoke from the heart and said he wants to be the winner, but if it cannot be him, than he still wants someone from Savaii to win....it's a commitment...to his tribe.

Ozzy is the one that tells us in the promos that...You've gotta make big moves in this game.

Immediately, the announcer tells us...One castaway asks to be sent to Redemption Island. Then Ozzy tells us, I came to redeem myself.

If you go the the Ep 7 and beyond *Spoiler* Maxx Fisher Boot Discussion thread by KO Fan you can see that the consensus in there feels that indeed it will be Savaii that loses the IC and that Ozzy will be the one to volunteer for RI, where he will take on Christine.

Albert uttered a statement last episode which may be prophetic in the weeks to come...You can fake loyalty, you can't fake strength. Furthermore, the spec is that Albert may be ironically the one to bite it because of the move to boot Mikayla.

Additionally, Maxx Fisher provided a clue that someone is going to go "trojan horse" at the merge from Savaii, in addition to Ozzy trash talking Savaii at the duel. There is a lot of good spec on that as well in there. Most seem to think that Cochran is indeed the logical choice, as the weak link.

So much good discussion in there this week, it's a must read for all of us! They ponder every detail of the big move! Now, there is one remaining clue that applies to Tribe Upolu...

2. 
"Trojan Horse" – One tribe calls upon the heavens in hopes of changing their luck.

Most likely the "trojan horse" is headed into Camp Upolu. They are also the tribe that can be seen praying for rejuvenation...Coach (praying with Upolu Tribe): Father, we ask for just a rejuvenation of this tribe.

Then we have some misdirection located in our vidcap thread brought to us by Tribephyl. The misdirection notes, Coach (camera confessional): If there comes a time where Brandon becomes a liability, you've got to put a bullet in somebody's head.
Brandon (praying with Upolu Tribe): Amen.

This makes it seem as though Upolu may be headed down the TC path, but we know that this is indeed misdirection. Added to that is Albert "struggling" in the challenge. Again, misdirection.

The Challenge, Air, Sea, and Land

The challenge shots are also located in the vidcap thread. Here is the course:

There is a course set out in the sea with obstacles to scale. The tribes must paint themselves up for battle. When they arrive, there will be 2 pairs of male/female retrievers, and a pair of male callers. Note that the pairs must decorate and adorn themselves identically. Here are the callers:

And, here are the retrievers:

Albert and Sophie:

Brandon and Edna:

And, for Savaii here are Keith and Dawn:

And, Ozzy and Whitney...

The retrievers must race out to collect all of the puzzle bags that are tied to obstacles that are further and further out. They must manuever being blind-folded and tethered to a rope. It sure looks like they are pretty "neck and neck" when the later part of the retrieval takes place...

Maybe Savaii has a slight lead...Then, here are the Savaii with maybe their last bag....getting ready to hand the challenge over to the puzzle assemblers...

We received a tease from Jiffy that one player makes a big blunder in the challenge that could possibly end the game of a favorite. Well, we know that the favorite that could possibly be dead man walking is indeed Ozzy. So, we spec'd that most likely the inept in challenges, Cochran, is indeed the most likely to blunder. Max tells us that we are right!

BTW, Dawn really is a trooper in these challenges...

That leaves us with one final thing to speculate about....

The Redemption Island Duel

We have a few tips regarding the RI duel...First this is posted in the Beat the Spoiler Vote Thread by dabo.

And we have a few vidcaps as well...

It looks as though there are 3 stations, and from the first picture, it looks like Christine has a slight lead. Although, in the last vidcap, it looks like they are also neck and neck!

The Results

Duel Winner:

RC/IC Winner: UPOLU

BOOT and our BIG MOVE MAKER:

Now, to answer the question, will it work? I point to these shots taken from our remarkable Veruca Salt's the Players, the Game, the Editing Thread.

In the last episode we got this shot at Camp Upolu....

A picture of a dead fish, left rotting with flies all over it. Not a very hopeful sign at Upolu. It reminded me of shots like this at Camp Zapatera last season...

An ominous sign for Upolu, indeed, imho! I also wanted to note that michel also speculates that Ozzy will leave his HII with his tribe as he goes off to RI....we know that he is RIGHT. Maxx tells us that Ozzy will leave his idol with Cochran in case things go awfully awry on RI. It is to be used by someone in trouble from Savaii.

Can't wait to see the event unfold in the next 3 episodes! Don't forget to go and vote in dabo's Vote Thread.

There is excellent speculation as well in Corvis' Episode 7 Boot Discussion Thread. Seems like we can figure this season out all by ourselves! Great spoiling, everyone!

I want to thank Michel who helped me gather alot of info for my Top Ten Biggest Survivor Moves list by looking up things in Mario Lanza's Funny 115 lists. What a resource that is, and OH, SO FUNNY! Definitely, if you have time check it out, here. Just hilarious!