Excellent pulling together of this early SU spoiler -- one I had forgotten as I didn't know the T/F was all True.If Brandon goes out in 6th place (1st F5 boot), that will be in accordance with the line-up we see now. Sophie tells Albert that booting Edna and Brandon will not upset anyone, as it's the pre-ordained order, but they need to go after Cochran.
Sophie is playing "peel the onion alliance" as it peels by established pecking order, rather than reaching in and pulling a layer prematurely. She sees this as a way to avoid a bitter jury I think. Coach too.
So we are not seeing any surprises down the road with the Upolu alliance. The only wild card is Ozzy. Rick will not duel Ozzy, because Brandon is the last duel (by the SU spoiler).
The last duel will most likely be endurance, and Ozzy knows how to do these, whereas Brandon is impatient and twitchy.
That leaves Ozzy competing in what is most likely a fairly physical F5 challenge against Coach, Sophie, Albert, Rick. Last season it was the Bone to Pick that Ashley won. The F6 and F4 challenges were highly physical and Rob won both of them.
Sophie likely has a decent chance to beat Ozzy at something similar to Bone To Pick, but remember that Ozzy is going to have a huge nutritional edge over the Upolu when he comes back. Because Ozzy does think in terms of strategic providing, he might well go off and feed himself without sharing when he returns. So Ozzy will have the edge with energy, brain chemistry, stamina -- in addition to his natural abilities.
According to SU, Ozzy does not make the F3 -- but the spoiler leaves it open that he could make F4.
Last season, SU was taken in by the false planted spoiler that Boston Rob would go out at F5 or F4. It could happen again if Ozzy wins. SEG might like to protect that surprise enough to disseminate a false spoiler of an all Upolu F3.
I watched Episode 1 again a couple days ago, to see what it showed me now that so much has played out. I really felt that Ozzy had a huge story that was much bigger than the way he ultimately played the pre-merge game. Coach, Brandon, and Cochran got the other big stories.
We know now that Cochran and Brandon were not winners. They were personality players.
Sophie got some special attention in Ep 1, but nothing compared to the two returnees, and she did not get a confessional prior to the camp scenes. Typically the winner gets a line in the intro portion. Rick did, but it was in relation to Coach, but we know Rick is not winning as we barely know that Rick is on the show at this point. Albert got zip.
The first episode attention points to a Coach or Ozzy win, with Sophie has the only other viable candidate, but they got 20-1 the attention.
The other possible SEG lie is that SU says Coach does not win. Jim and Keith feel that Coach will win per their Ponderosa video, if someone doesn't stop him. They don't think he is the goat.
I think it is very possible that Coach does win, because he is "Running the Show" just like Boston Rob. In the case of an all-Upolu F3, the Savai'i should vote for the person they think dominated the game. Very seldom is that person punished the way Russell was, and Russell cut throats and broke his word in addition to being a saboteur and a gloating arrogant smelly troll.
It does not look like Coach is going to do anything Russhellish.
Because SU has been fooled before, I lean towards a Coach or Ozzy win here.