LAST EDITED ON 04-26-11 AT 11:30 AM (EST)
Welcome to the Survivor Blows State of the Spoiling aka SOTS! This is the place where we scour the multiple boards that live, breathe, and eat all things Survivor and then try and spoil the episiode before it airs. Sometimes we are right, and sometimes we are not, but we will eternally try. Just a quick reminder that it's a great time for all of us here at Blows to go back and give our guidelines the once over, they really are the reason we all have such a fun, exciting, and CIVIL board. As in the immortal words of S1 Colleen, Be nice and play fair!
Last time on Survivor, the pagonging continued. The old Ometepe's noted that their rice was spoiled with mold and maggots. Phillip dumped the good stuff out, and wanted, insisted that the old Zap's mix it with theirs. The Zaps refused and ignited "Rice and Race Wars". At the IC, Boston Rob continued his puzzle dominance and won the IC. Meanwhile, back at camp, Julie buried Phillip's bathing trunks, and was severely punished for it later that evening at TC when she surprisingly received the boot. Jiffy is now a certified therapist who was able to bring out the diplomatic side of both Natalie and Rob. Redemption Island now boards three...Matt, Mike, and Julie.
A Mystery Package
Thanks to Squid Pro Quo for posting the episode title, A Mystery Package as well as the CBS Misdirection clues, located here. The clues are:
1. ONE CASTAWAY REACHES THEIR BREAKING POINT IN THE GAME AND STRUGGLES TO FIND THE STRENGTH TO CONTINUE.
With the preview vidcaps posted in the Ep. 11, Vidcap Thread by our own, "we love our Tribe-Phil", we can see that the one DAW that is close to the breaking point is Matt who is wasting away on RI...
We see that the promos note that this occurs on Day 21...
...but, the morning after the very last TC will be the morning of Day 28. Matt was down in the dumps after his last boot out of the tribe, again. But, since Mike and David came, and now Julie, he's picking himself up by his bootstraps...the RI saga continues...By posting the lows that Matt went through now, leads the viewer to believe that he can't make it through. It casts doubt as to his longevity in the game. I think we are all in agreement here at Blows, that this is just plain misdirection. Matt is doing fine and moving on...In fact, kiki_k notes this: The Jesus edit Matt is getting is becoming less & less subtle. I wouldn't be surprised if the very last "duel" on RI involves getting on a cross. Food for thought...
Clue #2. "A Mystery Package" — One castaway is on the verge of a breakdown, while other castaways speculate about the contents of a mystery package and how it affects their strategy.
These vidcaps paint the whole picture...
Jiffy flips the daws a mystery package at some point during the challenge, which leads Robfadda and gang to ponder what the heck this twist is all about...
The Promo Transcripts:
Posting the promo transcripts also provides clues to the episode...
With the preview promo we got this:
Phillip: I am truly blessed, sitting on a rock at camp in his pink undies...
Jeff: Phillip has his greatest day yet!
In confessional, Rob: it's all about getting rid of the right person at the right time.
Jiffy: While Andrea could be headed for an early departure. (See her at camp...)
Jeff: Meanwhile on RI: Matt says while sitting alone at RI, crying, I'm so over this game, man....While Matt sinks to the darkest depths of his soul. I'm out here wasting away, God's literally been carrying me..., see Matt crying.
The preview promo presents Phillip on a platter, who is blessed and has his best day ever, then we hear Rob contemplating booting one of his own, perhaps..."the right person at the right time". We also hear that Andrea may be in for an early departure. Some here speculate that perhaps Andrea could hurt herself this episode, accidentally. Regardless, Andrea is most likely the decoy here. Note, there is no sign of the Zaps in this promo at all.
The promo transcripts:
VO: After 21 days on Redemption Island...
Matt: God's literally been carrying me.
VO: ... has Matt finally broken?
Matt: I'm just so over this game, man.
Phillip: Zaba Doo Da. Hey!
VO: ... Phillip gets kookier by the day.
Steve: He's a different breed.
VO: How has he managed to survive?
Rob: As long as he keeps up his stupid antics... he's under my protection.
VO: But, will a surprise twist...
Probst: "Bring it with you to Tribal Council."
VO: ... change the game completely?
Rob: "I don't understand why there has to be a twist. Always a twist."
VO: Is Phillip the nuttiest player ever...
Phillip: Am I good or what, baby!
VO: ... or is he just playing everyone?
Phillip: Son, you can't stand the truth!
VO: Rob is the island Godfather.
Rob: One man should not have this much power on an island.
VO: Will the other castaways finally wake up and vote him off...
Grant: Timing is everything in this game.
VO: ... or is this his year to win it all?
VO: And, is Phillip the nuttiest player ever or just playing everyone?
Phillip: Son, you can't stand the truth!
The promos present Phillip once again as the kookiest Survivor ever, and nutty, too...Zabba Doo Da, HEY! He's managed to survive because as long as he keeps up his kooky antics, he's under Robfadda's protection. BUT, then they ask the first question....Is Phillip just playing everyone?
Then, question #2 rears it's ugly head...Will a surprise twist change the game completely? In other words, will anyone, specifically Phillip, be voted out before a Zap?
Then we have another promo that's all about Boston Rob. the Island Godfather...cut to Godfather music...we get cocky Rob, noting that one man should not have this much power on an Island. Finally, the last question is asked...Will the other castaways finally wake up and vote him off, OR, is this his year to win it all?
We hear Grant note the same thing that Rob did earlier...that it's all about voting the right person at the right time. Most likely he is echoing what Rob has discussed with him earlier. More than likely, it was their private discussion on how to get themselves to the F3....not about taking out Rob.
So, to answer the questions of the hour...Phillip could be playing everyone, but it still won't win him the game...No, a surprise, mystery package will not change the game forever, and....No, the other castaways will not wake up in time, at least not in this episode, to vote Rob out, leaving us still to ponder, is this his year to win it all?
This week we know that the challenge is an old one, as OFG notes here. Yes, a variation of it has been done in Survivor: All-Stars where Amber beat Shii-Ann and Jerri, and Rob beat Lex and Ethan. It also was done in Survivor: Amazon, and Survivor: Gabon. As OFG notes, in Gabon it was run as an IC. There were 4 pairs, winners advance to the semi-final, then finals. More than likely we will have the same here. 4 pairs, winners advance to the semi-final. Winners of them, advance to the final.
We see most likely early pairings...Grant and Rob...
...and, Phillip and Natalie:
While it appears that Rob is about to lose, and Natalie is about to lose, it's not definitive. Many are speculating about the challenge area. There is a long bench on the left of the frame, where perhaps "losers" sit, and then there is a shorter bench on the right, perhaps where the winners wait.
The challenge area:
Also, please note that there appears to be a covered dish, or dishes in between the two benches. Most likely, the winner gets to eat something.
With the shot of the "package" being tossed to Steve, we note that Phillip, Rooster, and Natalie are already on the bench. We also note in an earlier frame, that Ashley and Rooster are in the frame. Are they all losers?
Squid Pro Quo noted with his eagle eye that someone was in the frame next to Jiffy as he makes the toss...Blind Freddy blew up the pic and posted a picture for comparison....Volcanic Glass expounded on that...
While we are not able to see the face at all, I am certain that it is indeed Andrea. She has shorter layers of hair, in comparison to Ashley, who has much longer hair. Ashley's hair tends to stay up nicely in her bun, while Andrea's appears to be down here.
So, it could work out like this:
Grant vs. Rob = Grant wins
Phillip vs. Natalie= Phillip wins
Ashley vs. Andrea= Andrea wins
Rooster vs. Steve= Steve wins
See Ashley and Rooster on the bench....during the next phase Phillip vs. Grant
So semi-finals: Phillip vs. Grant, Steve vs. Andrea
Note the losers on the bench here:
Finals: Grant vs. Andrea
So, in a nut shell. We will have another Tri-ul. I'll bet that Matt and Mike advance.
We will have the log rolling challenge. Winner:
I think that OFG has nailed it this week. I think the surprise mystery package, to be opened at TC, will be instructions telling them to do another immediate vote out, right after the first vote out. No time to scramble and strategize. But, in the end it won't matter...Rob's plan to get them to the final 6 will indeed work.
Dumb and Dumber...
Ralph, then Steve, will be voted out. At the end of this episode, we will have 6 remaining at Murlonio, and 4 at Camp Redemption Island...
OR, if Grant does not win immunity in the second portion of the TC, after Ralph leaves, then he's vulnerable. Rob will know that something is up here, and I am sure that he has a plan to accommodate another vote off. He most likely would tell Grant that the plan is Andrea. We hear that she could make an "early departure", but, imo that's misdirection. If Grant does not win immunity for a second vote off, we hear Rob say, it's about the right person at the right time...It is possible that Grant COULD be toast...this would also feed into Rob's plan to finally get Matt off of RI....
Don't forget to visit Dabo and go and vote, when the thread appears...