LAST EDITED ON 04-24-11 AT 05:26 AM (EST)

note on how this challenge has been run in the past.

In All Stars it was run as an RC with six match-ups shown. Amber didn't exactly WIN the challenge. She made the winning point, and another point, so she did great, beating Shii Ann and Jerri.

Rob beat both Lex and Ethan.
In that challenge, it was men against men and women against women, so no match similar to Phillip vs. Natalie.

In the Amazon, also an RC, they showed 9 matches, also gender-matched. Heidi lost. I think she was top-heavy. Christy beat Jenna twice, and made the winning point.

In Gabon, it was an IC, so it should be run along similar lines.

F12, 6 pairs, not gender-matched.
Winner moves on to semi-finals, loser is out.

Six semi-finalists faced off, three out, three moved on to finals.

Final match-up, 3 on a log.

Semi-finalists were Charlie, Ace, Marcus, Randy, Sugar, Bob
Finalists Ace Sugar Marcus
Marcus won.

This was the double boot episode during the tribal phase, Marcus won individual immunity and assigned the other to Sugar.

At F8:
4 match-ups, 4 out, 4 moving on
Semi-finals, 2 more out, 2 move on
Finals

My guess is that people sitting are out of the challenge, but if standing to watch a match they are still in it?

Grant and Rob could be semi-finals or the final, or it could happen they got paired up on a first match-up. If the latter, then one of these two favorites would be out in round one.

If the semi, there could be two people on the sidelines still in it (if G/R are the first to go). But there are at least four people standing to watch Rob and Grant.

Andrea, Ralph, and Steve? Plus some shoes to the right of Andrea. Too many for the semi-finals, so I think Rob or Grant will not move on to the semi-finals. Rob beat soccer pro Ethan on this, and surfer Lex. He has been great at this challenge, but he looks a bit off balance to me in the last shot.

As for Natalie, I think she is going on. Phillip has stated that he has rhythm. With this challenge, you don't want to let your opponent get the log spinning fast or there is almost nothing you can do. It looks like Phillip gets Natalie that way.

The winner should have to win three matches.

They did something similar in the Outback as the F8 challenge. It wasn't logs per se, but they were on platforms and the semi's were on a shaky log.

Amber smoked that one too, but Nick knocked her in. (Nick beat Colby to win.)

Anyway, with that challenge too, if you lost once you were out. Keith, Tina, Jerri, and Lis lost in the first round. Amber and Roger lost in the semi-final round. There were no second chances.

Point being, when it's an IC you get eliminated if you fall off, whereas in the RC people did multiple match-ups. There should only be two semi-final rounds.

Phillip and Natalie's match, we can see Ashley and Ralph watching. Can anyone tell if they are standing or sitting?