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"How will the Jury Vote?"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 03:46 PM (EST)
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"How will the Jury Vote?"
CBS has announced that the first member of the jury will be determined this week. While we don't yet know who the jury's choices will be, we can start speculating in preparation for the Finale.

Jury management will begin as the remaining contestants start to plan their end-games.

Some things to consider:

If the final three are all Ometepe's and include Rob would the Zapatera's reward or punish him for his game?

Will Rob continue to get a Russell edit and suffer the same TC fate?

If a Zap or Matt returns to the game from Redemption Island and makes it to the F3, would the Zapatera majority jury throw their votes their way?

Will David vote objectively or emotionally?

If Matt gets to the F3, would his opponents argue that he never "Outwit" anyone and therefore is not deserving of the million?

What criteria would the jury use to select a winner, if Rob was not one of the F3 Ometepe to chose from?

If Matt is on the jury, will he hold a grudge against his former Ometepe tribemates, and vote for a Zap instead?

If Phillip makes it to the F3, would the jury believe that his strategy all along was to be the goat, who all would want next to them at the end?

If Rob doesn't make the F3, would he argue against those who betrayed him, or respect their play?

Which of the remaining Ometepe stand the best chance of winning, assuming that Rob is not sitting next to them at the end?

I'd love to hear your thoughts...



Krautboy

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 RE: How will the Jury Vote? parathor 04-19-11 1
   RE: How will the Jury Vote? PepeLePew13 04-19-11 2
 RE: How will the Jury Vote? HitmanPayne 04-19-11 3
 RE: How will the Jury Vote? Brownroach 04-19-11 4
 RE: How will the Jury Vote? Flowerpower 04-19-11 5
   RE: How will the Jury Vote? HitmanPayne 04-19-11 6
       RE: How will the Jury Vote? Flowerpower 04-19-11 8
   RE: How will the Jury Vote? Krautboy 04-19-11 7
       RE: How will the Jury Vote? PsychoKitty 04-27-11 12
 David Brownroach 04-27-11 9
   RE: David SpotTheDifference 04-27-11 10
   RE: David Krautboy 04-27-11 11
       RE: David dabo 04-27-11 13
           RE: David princat 04-27-11 14
               RE: David dabo 04-28-11 15
                   RE: David Georjanna 05-08-11 36
 Julie Krautboy 04-28-11 16
   RE: Julie SquidProQuo 04-28-11 17
       RE: Julie dabo 04-29-11 18
           RE: Julie Scarlett O Hara 05-01-11 19
               RE: Julie suzzee 05-02-11 20
                   RE: Julie NedraSue 05-04-11 21
 Steve dabo 05-07-11 22
 RE: How will the Jury Vote? Outfrontgirl 05-07-11 23
   RE: How will the Jury Vote? dabo 05-07-11 24
   RE: How will the Jury Vote? kiki_k 05-07-11 25
       RE: How will the Jury Vote? dabo 05-07-11 26
           RE: How will the Jury Vote? kiki_k 05-07-11 27
       RE: How will the Jury Vote? Outfrontgirl 05-07-11 28
           RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-08-11 29
               RE: How will the Jury Vote? Naked 05-08-11 30
                   RE: How will the Jury Vote? Outfrontgirl 05-08-11 32
                   RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-08-11 34
                       RE: How will the Jury Vote? Naked 05-08-11 37
                           RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-08-11 38
                   RE: How will the Jury Vote? kiki_k 05-08-11 35
                       RE: How will the Jury Vote? dabo 05-08-11 40
                           RE: How will the Jury Vote? kiki_k 05-08-11 42
                               RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-08-11 43
               RE: How will the Jury Vote? Outfrontgirl 05-08-11 31
                   RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-08-11 33
       RE: How will the Jury Vote? bondt007 05-08-11 39
           RE: How will the Jury Vote? kiki_k 05-08-11 41
               RE: How will the Jury Vote? CTgirl 05-09-11 44
                   Echoing CTGirl Flowerpower 05-09-11 46
                       RE: Echoing CTGirl michel 05-09-11 47
                           RE: Echoing CTGirl kiki_k 05-10-11 48
                               RE: Echoing CTGirl bondt007 05-10-11 49
                                   RE: Echoing CTGirl Flowerpower 05-10-11 52
           RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-09-11 45
               RE: How will the Jury Vote? bondt007 05-10-11 50
                   RE: How will the Jury Vote? michel 05-10-11 51
 RE: How will the Jury Vote? Outfrontgirl 05-10-11 53

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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 04:24 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I love these things!

If the final three are all Ometepe's and include Rob would the Zapatera's reward or punish him for his game?
Reward, unless he does something evil.

Will Rob continue to get a Russell edit and suffer the same TC fate?
I'm in the minority in thinking Rob didn't have an evil edit last time... it just wasn't in keeping with his god-like edit so far. So, no. Boston Rob is as far above Russell as Russell is above normal players.

If a Zap or Matt returns to the game from Redemption Island and makes it to the F3, would the Zapatera majority jury throw their votes their way?
Some will. Mike & Dave are iffy. Ralph, Julie, and Steve definitely will. Unless it's Matt, and then it'll be Steve, Julie, and Mike, not Dave and Ralph.

Will David vote objectively or emotionally?
Objectively.

If Matt gets to the F3, would his opponents argue that he never "Outwit" anyone and therefore is not deserving of the million?
Definitely. And Matt will either argue that he had to outwit people on RI, or he'll argue that it doesn't matter, he outlasted people.

What criteria would the jury use to select a winner, if Rob was not one of the F3 Ometepe to chose from?
They'll default to whoever was nicest (starting with Ashley, Matt, and Grant)

If Matt is on the jury, will he hold a grudge against his former Ometepe tribemates, and vote for a Zap instead?
No. He's not smart enough to hold a grudge. Remind me not to go to his hospital if/when he gets his medical license.

If Phillip makes it to the F3, would the jury believe that his strategy all along was to be the goat, who all would want next to them at the end?
No... and even if he didn't get cotton-mouth in explaining it, no one would reward that style of play (not even Matt).

If Rob doesn't make the F3, would he argue against those who betrayed him, or respect their play?
Depends. I think he respects gameplay... plus he's plotting to do the same thing (if this were to happen to him). But if it was Natalie spearheading it (or maybe Matt), then I don't think he'd respect them.

Which of the remaining Ometepe stand the best chance of winning, assuming that Rob is not sitting next to them at the end?
Assuming Rob isn't F3... Andrea, by virtue of "not being a spa girl" (hero), "winning an Individual Immunity" (outlast), "choosing the right alliance" (outplay), and "whacking Rob at the right moment" (outwit)

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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 04:55 PM (EST)
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2. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"

>Will Rob continue to get a
>Russell edit and suffer the
>same TC fate?

>I'm in the minority in thinking
>Rob didn't have an evil
>edit last time... it just
>wasn't in keeping with his
>god-like edit so far. So,
>no. Boston Rob is as
>far above Russell as Russell
>is above normal players.

I'm in agreement with you here. Whether that is enough to give Rob the win if he's in the F3, I don't know. We've seen a number of hints by now where I'm not sure if he did make it that the Zaps would give him all of their votes -- two people now have commented on the "cult status" of the Ometepes and Matt may not give Rob his vote (if he's on the jury) because he got booted out twice by Rob. Plus Rob has been treating the Zaps like total crap in camp with segretated sleeping and eating areas, would David/Rooster/Steve/Mike/Julie willingly vote for someone who made it clear they were persona non grata?

The key would be who is in the F3 along with Rob. I think Grant would win over Rob if both of them made the F3 - another hint we got was that Grant went over and ate a piece of fish from the Zaps, so there's that subtle bonding moment that the Zaps can relate to better than the Robfather's treatment of them. If Rob was there in the F3 with one of Ashley/Natalie and Phillip, then I think he wins. If he's with Matt, Grant or Andrea, I believe he'd lose votes to one of those three.

If the Zap 5 give most of their votes to Rob, then they're the stupidest jury members ever for letting themselves be treated like crap and still worshipping the ground that Rob walks on.

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HitmanPayne 54 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 05:02 PM (EST)
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3. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
If the final three are all Ometepe's and include Rob would the Zapatera's reward or punish him for his game?

Probably. They might out of spite, punish him if he orchestrates something deviant.

Will Rob continue to get a Russell edit and suffer the same TC fate?

Right now, Rob is in control. I believe he will continue to be in control and could make the final 3. Will he lose the Jury vote? Probably not. Could he get kicked in F5, Maybe.

If a Zap or Matt returns to the game from Redemption Island and makes it to the F3, would the Zapatera majority jury throw their votes their way?

It's a high possibility. Seeing as how most of the Zapateras liked and respected Matt from watching him on Redemption Island, they would most likely swing a vote his way especially after they now despise the Ometepe tribe. If a Zap returns and makes final 3, they will most definitely get the Zap votes, but most likely, won't get a single Ometepe vote unless Matt decides to turn on his tribe as a juror.

Will David vote objectively or emotionally?

Has David even been emotional this entire game? David will vote objectively, IMO.

If Matt gets to the F3, would his opponents argue that he never "Outwit" anyone and therefore is not deserving of the million?

Technically, he never did Outwit anyone, considering he was the 2nd and 8th voted out. Anything done on Redemption Island was him socializing with the ones voted out whom were soon eliminated by him. But he could argue the long winning streak that probably no one will ever break if they decide to do Redemption Island on another season.

What criteria would the jury use to select a winner, if Rob was not one of the F3 Ometepe to chose from?

Probably who won the most immunity challenges and/or did the most around camp both socially and physically.

If Matt is on the jury, will he hold a grudge against his former Ometepe tribemates, and vote for a Zap instead?

If he will hold a grudge, it'll be against Rob. If Rob is a juror, I don't believe Matt will hold a grudge. It's a possibility, but I don't see it happening considering he should be "forgiving" like his God would want him to be.

If Phillip makes it to the F3, would the jury believe that his strategy all along was to be the goat, who all would want next to them at the end?

Probably not. Phillip was mainly seen as a distraction this whole season. If anything, he was mainly kept around for the entertainment. Nothing else.

If Rob doesn't make the F3, would he argue against those who betrayed him, or respect their play?

He could respect their play. Considering that he's played this game 3 prior seasons, he could respect them waiting for their right time to strike. He would be getting played this entire season.

Which of the remaining Ometepe stand the best chance of winning, assuming that Rob is not sitting next to them at the end?

Andrea or Natalie. Both have won immunity, and both have played somewhat a strategical social game.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 05:13 PM (EST)
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4. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
LAST EDITED ON 04-19-11 AT 05:16 PM (EST)

If the final three are all Ometepe's and include Rob would the Zapatera's reward or punish him for his game?

The Zap's seem to admire Rob's ability to maintain total control over his tribe, even while being frustrated by it. Unless he behaves really nastily toward them from this point on, I think most would vote for him to win.

Will Rob continue to get a Russell edit and suffer the same TC fate?

I don't think he's quite getting a Russell edit. But I do think he will suffer the same fate.

If a Zap or Matt returns to the game from Redemption Island and makes it to the F3, would the Zapatera majority jury throw their votes their way?

I think they would vote for the Zap. With Matt I think it would depend on who else was in the F3.

Will David vote objectively or emotionally?

Objectively, I think.

If Matt gets to the F3, would his opponents argue that he never "Outwit" anyone and therefore is not deserving of the million?

Yes.

What criteria would the jury use to select a winner, if Rob was not one of the F3 Ometepe to chose from?

If it was clear that someone was primarily responsible for ousting Rob, I think that person would command votes. How people present their cases would be the main factor I think.

If Matt is on the jury, will he hold a grudge against his former Ometepe tribemates, and vote for a Zap instead?

I think he would vote for a Zap, especially if it were someone who'd spent a length of time on RI like Matt had to and then got back into the game. He owes nothing to his old tribe (though he might okay with voting for Andrea).

But I don't think Matt will be on the jury.

If Phillip makes it to the F3, would the jury believe that his strategy all along was to be the goat, who all would want next to them at the end?

Yes, I think they would, provided his demeanor totally changed and he didn't act nutso at all. I don't think they'd necessarily vote for him to win, but it's possible.

If Rob doesn't make the F3, would he argue against those who betrayed him, or respect their play?

It's hard to know because we've never seen Rob on the jury. Generally he'd be respectful of gameplay I think. I also think he'd point out the failings of those he didn't believe should win.

Which of the remaining Ometepe stand the best chance of winning, assuming that Rob is not sitting next to them at the end?

If you don't count Matt, my guess would be Grant -- not from his edit, because he doesn't have one, and I don't think he'll get to F3. But I can imagine people seeing him as nice and easy-going, and his prowess in challenges would be a plus.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 06:00 PM (EST)
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5. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Anything for you, KB!

If the final three are all Ometepe's and include Rob would the Zapatera's reward or punish him for his game? I think in the end they will reward him. I think Rob has a fine chance of winning against anyone, because I think he is really good at persuasive argument. I think he will have learned from the one prior time that he argued in front of a jury and fell short. Let's face it, he had a huge target on his back from day 1....

Will Rob continue to get a Russell edit and suffer the same TC fate? IF, and the word is IF, he continues to get the RussHell edit, he will indeed suffer the same fate. I don't think that he will continue to get the Russhell edit, however.

If a Zap or Matt returns to the game from Redemption Island and makes it to the F3, would the Zapatera majority jury throw their votes their way?
I think a Zap in the mix, especially Mike, would, could win the game...I don't think he'll be the returnee, however. I think Rob could beat the other Zaps...David was moody and bossy, and when it came time to be the puzzle master, he finished dead last. David was not adept at social graces. But, he is a master at argument. But, I think that the Zaps are a very emotional group. Ralph, as he's noted, is a dumba$$, and I don't know if he could out argue Rob. I don't think Julie or Steve could win against Rob. Matt, OTOH, could definitely pull some Zap votes. The thing that is the unknown is how these Zaps respect the game. Sometimes, I clearly don't think that they get it....it's a game to outwit, outplay, and outlast. It's a game, a competition. If they are so emotional regarding the outcome, it could be futile to try and figure this out...

Will David vote objectively or emotionally? I sure hope as an officer of the Court that if anyone could indeed be objective, it would be David. I have seen him play emotionally, as I think of the pointing finger at Sarita...and his frustrations regarding his predicament at Murlonio. But, I do think he respects the game play and could vote objectively...

If Matt gets to the F3, would his opponents argue that he never "Outwit" anyone and therefore is not deserving of the million? Absolutely, yes. He was never in the game for long, and when he was he made poor decision after poor decision. They would argue he was tainted with nothing but sour grapes, and the fact that he was voted out not once, but twice should disqualify him for the win. I can see him getting to the F5 or F4, but not the F3, personally.

What criteria would the jury use to select a winner, if Rob was not one of the F3 Ometepe to chose from? Going along to get along....Identifying Rob as the biggest threat to win the game, therefore keeping him alive to an endgame point where he now becomes disposable. Agree that whoever masterminds and implements the plan to take Rob out will most likely get all of the votes. A blindside would be nice, but I don't even think that they need that. Winning immunities is also nice to have on the resume...

If Matt is on the jury, will he hold a grudge against his former Ometepe tribemates, and vote for a Zap instead? No, I don't think he will hold a grudge, as he said, fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice, shame on me...

If Phillip makes it to the F3, would the jury believe that his strategy all along was to be the goat, who all would want next to them at the end? They might believe it, but they were the ones that suffered through all those days with him....I don't think it will win him any favor.

We know that Rob wants Natalie and Phillip...I don't think they will be the F3. I think Rob could make a great argument with anyone, really. The Omes could all point to Rob as their vehicle to the F3, and point to him as the villain, the dictator, the cult leader...I think Phillip would like the spa girls. I think all of them would like to have Phillip, as he himself noted. Andrea would like Phillip and one of the girls, imo. Grant most likely would like Phillip and one of the spa girls as well.

If Rob doesn't make the F3, would he argue against those who betrayed him, or respect their play?

I think Rob has always been a graceful loser, and he's always admired the game play of winners, imo. I think he certainly would test them with his questions at the final TC. He would respect the winner.

Which of the remaining Ometepe stand the best chance of winning, assuming that Rob is not sitting next to them at the end?

Mike, if he's there, Grant. Andrea. Ashley. Natalie. Matt. Phillip...in that order.


FWIW



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HitmanPayne 54 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 06:10 PM (EST)
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6. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
>Which of the remaining Ometepe stand
>the best chance of winning,
>assuming that Rob is not
>sitting next to them at
>the end?

>
>Mike, if he's there, Grant. Andrea.
>Ashley. Natalie. Matt. Phillip...in that
>order.

I never knew Mike was ever in Ometepe.


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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 06:50 PM (EST)
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8. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Ok....got me. Just wanted to make the point that if Mike were to be the one returned and somehow he made it to the F3, that he would have my vote to win the jury vote, first and foremost....

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-19-11, 06:26 PM (EST)
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7. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Wow, you guys are amazing! LOL, I wasn't actually expecting any answers yet...just trying to create a place holder for the discussion as the jury members were selected, and maybe stimulate a little discussion.

I will be curious to see how your responses match up with the actual events as they unfold over the the last 5 episodes.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts...this is great reading...keep them coming!


Krautboy

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PsychoKitty 727 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-11, 08:06 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
This IS great reading! And I'm really enjoying all of your points. I'm hoping Mike beats out Matt tonight - sweet eye candy ;) It's interesting who all you think deserves to win. Go Robfadda! ;) I hate the idea of anyone voting for Ashley (nice girl? - no way!)

Keep up the great commentary!

Not that I have an opinion one way or another ;)
Signature by tribephyl

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-11, 04:19 PM (EST)
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9. "David"
Copied over from SPQ's post in the Interviews thread.

TVGuide.ca 4.27.11)

Who is going to get David's vote for the million dollars:

It’s really a matter of who is playing the best game. As it stands right now, somebody has got to make a big move to take Rob out of the driver’s seat. If someone steps up and does that, that person is going to have a pretty good chance to win or if someone is able to make it back from Redemption Island and can make it to the end, that person would stand a good chance to get a fair number of jury votes just for the adversity they had to overcome.

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SpotTheDifference 949 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-11, 04:52 PM (EST)
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10. "RE: David"
This was exactly what I was thinking. The Murlonians aren't stupid; they have to know that Rob is playing the best game out of anyone and that he's the most likely to win. The Ometepes have to know that they need to get rid of Rob but that it's not the right time to do so unless all of the Zapateras have gone.

There's also a real argument FOR Matt winning if he reaches the final three: apart from the time the rest of the jury has spent with him on RI, they really haven't gotten a chance to interact with him. I imagine the time spent in RI is vastly different from the time spent in the Murlonio camp as there are no tribe-vs-tribe dynamics. This potentially reduces the level of animosity the Zapaterans might feel towards Matt.

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-11, 05:34 PM (EST)
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11. "RE: David"
As we've all seen, David respects Rob's play. If Rob gets to the F3 I think it's safe to expect that David would vote for him.

I would also expect any of the Zaps on the Jury to vote for Rob. Rob made no promises to any of the Zaps and beat them at the game. They have no reason to hold more of a grudge against Rob than any of the other Ometepes.

It's really the other Ometepes on the jury who may feel betrayed by Rob in the end, but he would only need one of their five jury votes to win if he gets the four Zap votes.

The Ometepe would be foolish to take Rob to the F3.



Krautboy

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-11, 11:19 PM (EST)
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13. "RE: David"
Awhile back I thought David was the one Zap likely to vote for Rob, because he intellectualizes the game. Being first juror he could be influential on the others, particularly for also being a lawyer.

On the other hand, it was David who emphasized to the other Zaps that it wasn't "them" (Ometepe) but Rob deciding everything in Murlonio.

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princat 77 desperate attention whore postings
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04-27-11, 11:43 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: David"
I agree with you Dabo in that David might be the only Zap to vote for Rob. The reactions from the other Zaps as they leave have not been too favorable towards Rob. They barely acknowledge the Omes as they leave usually saying bye to the other Zaps. They all believe Rob is controlling who goes home (correctly).
I know the editors control what we see but I haven't seen a lot of interaction between the Zaps and Rob. The other Omes who are building relationships might be able to pull out some votes. Phillip is the perfect goat for Rob since he won't get votes but the 3rd person could be very dangerous to him.

I also have to echo that there seems to be much more positive relationships on RI. If someone like Mike or Matt come back into the game and make it to the final they would have a very good shot. They will have spent time with just about every juror (if not all).

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-28-11, 00:42 AM (EST)
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15. "RE: David"
The problem David has with the other Omes is that they haven't been playing their own games, they've been playing Rob's game. At least up until now. Except for Phillip, Phillip has been playing his own game, whatever it is. But David and others have different issues with Phillip. What most of them probably don't understand, perhaps not even David for all his intellectualizing, is that Phillip's game gets in the way of everyone else's game. That is a great strategy if you can make it work.
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Georjanna 1316 desperate attention whore postings
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05-08-11, 02:44 PM (EST)
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36. "RE: David"
LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 04:13 PM (EST)

David is, it would seem, a very persuasive defense attorney: a highly effective advocate whose professional bread and butter is dependent upon his ability to sucessfully identify, frame and argue the flip side.

And while it is possible that the something to which David refers in his exit interview with RNO (below) will be discarded by editors - or will turn out to be a postgame publicity stunt - I don't think that either will be the case. For the same reason that I doubt that David ever asks a question before he knows the answser, I also don't think that his ego would permit him to chance advertising a non-event or to risk the appearance of an intellect anywhere south of cultured brilliance. I also doubt that we would hear about the thing that David has left to do - from David - unless David considers it to be the defining moment of the Jury phase of Survivor: Redemption Island.

So, given this exchange ...

RNO: We are about out of time, so is there anything else you’d like to tell us about your time on Survivor?

David: The only thing I’ll say is it’s not done yet. I’ve got something left to do.

RNO: Interesting! We’ll look forward to that.

David: I am as well.

RNO: Hmmm, foreshadowing! Thanks again, David!

... and considering the full range of this Season's probable/possible F3 configurations, I would love to hear who all of you think was most likely to have received David's pro bono largesse.

Because I think that if we continue to approach the question of Who won the Game? from David's perspective, we'll be a lot closer to our answer. For instance:

I don't think that David would waste his breath on the fortunes of a player who, given his or her F3 scenario, was a popular choice. What fun - for David - would that be?

ETA: As is Mark Burnett, David is a Cancer. And, like Mark Burnett and many other of the Sign's natives, he appears to be a born devil's advocate and a dedicated connoisseur of all things ironic.



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04-28-11, 03:24 PM (EST)
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16. "Julie"
As Julie left RI, it sure sounded like she would vote for Matt if he was in the F3. Matt inspired Julie to go home and "find a church", so she would probably choose him over anyone else to win the million.


Krautboy

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04-28-11, 03:30 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Julie"
Yep, I was thinking the same thing, KB.

Also, in Julie's post-game interview she mentioned twice how the Zap alliance felt that Russell and Rob already had their chance to win the million so should be voted out....which makes me think that even though they respect Rob's game play, they might not be inclined to hand him the million check unless the alternatives are really lame.

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04-29-11, 01:17 PM (EST)
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18. "RE: Julie"
Per her post-game interviews, Julie seems to be leaning to a Mike or Matt win, regardless that they were voted out. She seems to hate Phil, hate Rob, hate the Ometepe sleepers for not playing the game. She gives cred to Phil and Andrea for being workers, that's about it. She was originally approached to be cast for the show having never watched the show.
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05-01-11, 09:10 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Julie"
David will vote for Rob. Julie may too, depending on who else is in F3. I think the Zaps will vote for Rob as they see the rest of the Zaps as "sheep" or followers. The only one who may give Rob a run for his money with the votes, IMHO, is Matt.

He has not had to vote any one off -- only bond with the losers as they come to RI. I think it would be TERRIBLE if he wins as he did nothing really to outwit and outplay the others.

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05-02-11, 11:38 AM (EST)
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20. "RE: Julie"
Thank you for voicing my unsettled thoughts on a Matt win. I have not been able to get behind him because he takes nor gives credit to anyone but God. Sorry but that is just a reason for not playing the social strategist and absolving himself of anything that isn't "nice".

He keeps implying he's got no part in his coming or going like that goofy feather in Forrest Gump. To me he hasn't played any game outside of the duels. He didn't ever seriously have a strategic thought in his head even after the second boot.



agman makes me hot

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05-04-11, 01:50 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: Julie"
I feel this way with Matt also. It is very unfair to allow him to come back into the game at final 3...because the complete make up of RI is totally different than on the beach. It would disappoint me, if that ends up happening.

I think that Steve, Mike and Dave would vote for Rob, because they FELT Robs control of the game. Ralph didn't understand it.

I also think that the Spa girls will still idolize Rob because of his bright star and him telling them at camp, 'someone has to go home tonight'...he is a good leader.

He won't get to see Amber...I think she was around 7 months pregnant during the filming...so, she will not do the trip.


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05-07-11, 01:15 AM (EST)
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22. "Steve"
I'm not getting a good read on Steve except that nothing will convince him Phillip isn't crazy (and there is no racist code in that). He respects Matt, Mike, and Rob, but thinks the Ometepes were foolish for drinking the Kool-Ade.
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05-07-11, 09:44 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
One thing not mentioned here is the money Rob has gotten for being on reality shows that "we" don't know about, but people who go on these shows are more hip to.

I ran into this today:
TV Guide: How much were you guys paid to do TAR: All-Stars?
Rob: We can't talk about specifics. But we got paid a lot of money.
Amber: Yeah.

TV Guide: Unlike the regular race, where I'm assuming people don't get paid.
Rob: I can't comment about other people. But CBS made it very well worth Amber and I coming back.

TV Guide: How worth it? Are we talking Lexus sedan worth it, or Toyota Camry worth it?
Rob: Well worth it.
Amber: We have smiles on our faces.

That was just to come back and do TAR again.
For those who don't think Rob got a whopping appearance fee to come do this season, what are the odds that CBS paid them a bundle for TAR but not for this?

Outback, Marquesas, $1million + 100K for All Stars, 2nd place TAR 2007, fully paid for lavish wedding, honeymoon, TAR All Stars big appearance fee, Heroes v Villains, probably another appearance fee, as it seems that CBS likes to pay All Stars ..., now this, minimum 100K I would say, maybe 200K. Plus Rob is probably going to get the Fan Fave which is another 100K. Lots of money.

It's easy to say he played a great game, but they may not be so keen to give him a million dollars on top of all the rest. Or they may.

All I'm saying is that when we talk about how they'll vote, this will be a factor, as will his prior experience giving him an advantage.

They will be thinking about that angle. It's the thing CBS doesn't want discussed on the actual show. If Ashley thinks Rob is a bit of a goat for her, that could be why.

http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_
files/4d6c77f2d539489d.jpg

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05-07-11, 12:49 PM (EST)
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24. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Yeah, compounding how horrible an idea RI was anyway, throwing a couple of All-Stars into the mix with first-timers was an incredibly bad idea also. Stephanie and Krista were starstruck with Russell but the rest of the Zapatera just resented the All-Stars. Ometepe empowering Rob basically makes him a big goat, but continuing to empower him as he decides which of his Ometepe to keep and which to blindside is just too individually risky, they ought to have popped him off already.

David, as I said above, may intellectualize a Rob vote. Steve and Grant both have some media savviness from their NFL days, they may just not really care at the end depending on who else would be sitting with Rob at F3. The Christian Coalition may spark a forgiveness love-in, but that just evens the playing field and Rob doesn't represent for Christianity. Otherwise, there are going to be grudges. Phillip, unpredictable, could be a monster or take it like a man or drag out some soapbax to throw them a curve.

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05-07-11, 02:27 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
LAST EDITED ON 05-07-11 AT 02:31 PM (EST)

And that just shows how stupid & contrived this whole thing is. Voting for the winner of Survivor should have nothing to do with his or her personal life outside the game -- it should be about what happened only within the context of the game. I don't blame Rob (or the other players for this) -- it is TPTB at CBS & Survivor that set this stupid thing up.

I'll go on record right now -- any player who comes back from RI (and really, I think it will be Matt) & gets to F3 is going to win in a landslide just because he will have nothing to do with voting the vast majority of the jurors out. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: that's a bunch of b.s. The object of Survivor is to vote people out of the game & somehow get them to vote FOR you to win it at the end. David & the others can talk about "overcoming the adversity on RI" but that is a bunch of cr@p -- winning a duel is NOT the same thing as voting someone out & having them vote for you to win at the end.

If the F3 is Rob/Natalie/Phillip, then I think the jury will vote like this:

David -- Rob (he doesn't appear to care for Natalie in his interviews);
Julie -- Natalie (she's a naive sucker re: this game as she's shown time & time again with her "we lost, but we really won" comments);
Steve -- Rob (he seems to like Rob & will respect his game);
Rooster -- Natalie? (he seems to blame Rob for his own stupidity in the game & will give it to Natalie out of spite);
Andrea -- Rob (she has more respect for the game than most of the jurors; she will more than likely blame the Spa Girls for her boot over Rob);
Mike -- Rob (like Steve, a decent guy who understands the game);
Matt -- Rob (I don't see him holding a grudge but it is possible that he does);
Grant --Natalie? (he's been loyal to Rob but I think if he is voted out via Rob's HII he is going to resent it; he will also resent Rob not honoring the Grant/Rob/Phillip F3 deal they have).

Rob wins 6-3-0 with the possibility of winning 5-4-0 if Matt does vote for Natalie.

eta: As I previously said, I don't care if Jesus Christ comes down & tells the jury to vote for Phillip -- Phillip isn't getting one vote.

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05-07-11, 02:45 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Well, no one expects Survivor to be fair, but experience v inexperience is a huge factor in game. Why should Rob get so much respect for his game when he has the benefit of all his experience?

Historically, though, more often than not when there is a choice jury members favor finalists from their original tribes. So Mike or Ralph returning to the game is really more dangerous now to Rob than Matt or Andrea returning to the game. But the returnee has a tremendous advantage in having been able to socialize with members of the jury, while at RI, without the game factors getting in hte way of them just being themselves.

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05-07-11, 03:46 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Well, no one expects Survivor to be fair, but experience v inexperience is a huge factor in game. Why should Rob get so much respect for his game when he has the benefit of all his experience?

I meant the experience too, not just the money he's made because of/outside of Survivor -- I should have been clearer. In a situation like All-Stars (or even Fan v. Favorites) they would all be on a somewhat even playing field. It was TPTB that thought up this stupid game plan of putting in an experienced player with a bunch of first-timers.*

*I don't count Russell as an "experienced player" because that stubborn mule is too stupid & delusional to actually "learn" from his mistakes because he doesn't believe he made any.

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05-07-11, 09:32 PM (EST)
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28. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
>>> Voting for the winner of Survivor should have nothing to do with his or her personal life outside the game -- it should be about what happened only within the context of the game.

SHOULD and actuality don't coincide all that often.

But the appearance fee issue is within the context of the game.

A second juror receives a bit over 30K for playing the game.
ROB received 3 X that much or even 6 X that much for simply getting off the helicopter, PLUS he gets the money for how far he advances.

It is not realistic to think that other players don't consider that Rob is doing very well off it whether he wins the million or not. These people came to take their shot at the million, and finally got it, and then a second helicopter arrived and they were told, here, keep these two repeat players for their experience and expertise. Vote them off when you are ready. (But not right away, please!) Use them, that was the rationale for keeping them.

Wouldn't those who DO ally with the repeat player do so with the belief that he will help them (the newbies) get farther? Did they come to enable someone else winning, to enable an All Star to win? That is what Zapatera kept asking Ometepe, and it's a fair question.

One has to wonder how many thoughts and conversations there have been about how Rob is getting enough money. There really is no other reason that the Ometepe would plan to allow him to go to the finals.

That said, there is such a thing as jurors taking revenge on people who count on a goat. Sandra did not to anything to win HvV other than make it to the end and NOT be the one who openly enabled Russell to get there. Neither did Natalie White. Fabio too. Chase got punished for ditching his allies in order to bring goat Sash.

All this is why I never post in "who votes for whom" topics until I see how the end game plays out, who gets burned there.

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05-08-11, 02:55 AM (EST)
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29. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Yeah, that could play a role but the players now know that they also could be coming back very soon. With returning players rumored to be on every other season, Burnett has them even more under control. A player would not want to jeopardize his chances by appearing to be a bitter juror. A player might think that he'd better give a returnee a shot because he might be a returning himself soon. Or a player might listen more to what Jeff is telling him to do. Last TC was a perfect example of manipulation by Jeff: He asked if anyone felt insecure and when no one raised a hand, he went to Rob who told him he'd feel insecure without the necklace. That was telling the jury that the other 5 Omies were dumb.

BTW: Natalie White certainly did count on a goat.

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05-08-11, 03:44 AM (EST)
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30. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Ok... That doesn't make any sense for a number of reasons.

1. MB doesn't interfere in the game. The only person to ever express that idea in 22 seasons was Stacy Stillman from season 1, and even if he did do something at the very beginning, No one else since has even remotely hinted that he tried to influence them

2. Jeff's job is to try and shake things up at tribal council. He is not trying to "influence" the outcome. What we see in 5 minutes at the end of an episode is filmed for hours, with Jeff asking every question imaginable to the contestants. That is one of the reasons that he is always so impressed by a blindside because it is hard not to give "tells" when being interviewed for so long

3. MB obviously doesn't pick his all stars based on if they were a bitter juror or not, otherwise, half of the all stars that he selected would not have made the cut.

VOTE NAKED 2004

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05-08-11, 07:23 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I don't think MB minds if the jury acts up. It's good TV.

Influence the show, oh yeah.
Stacey was ostracized for what she did, even though they settled with her.
Next season -- Kel. Cover-up to keep military man in spite of cheating.
And so much more has gone on ...

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05-08-11, 12:17 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 12:32 PM (EST)

1- I don't know if you are being sarcastic but I do know you haven't been around lately so you must have missed where I stand on this point:

http://community.realitytvworld.com/cgi-sys/cgiwrap/rtvw2/community/dcboard.cgi?az=show_thread&om=4108&forum=DCForumID1&omm=0

Burnett interferes ALL the time when it matters.

2- Jeff influences the votes. His most often criticized "effort" was to get Janu to quit to save Stephenie.

3- Have Big Tom and Lex returned after @ss? Despite being great characters they were never considered for a return. One could also say that no one from Guatemala ever returned because they didn't vote the way Burnett wanted. Burnett picks his all-stars on a whim so anything can play a part.
(Candice a Hero? Her selection only makes sense if you consider it payback for interfering so much during Cook Islands to the point of destroying her game and her character!)


Yes, OFG jurors acting up makes good TV but the best TV is a good outcome. Sue's "rats and snakes" speech made great TV because of where it led. If she had ended her speech by saying "this show is crap and neither deserve our vote so I won't vote" it probably would have been edited out and Sue may not have been on @ss. Lex's angry mohawk look didn't make great TV.


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05-08-11, 05:11 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Just read your post on how Survivor may be fake... It is not. That is all that I need to say here. I will also not be goaded into a discussion with you about this. If that is your belief, then that is ok with me.

VOTE NAKED 2004

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05-08-11, 05:22 PM (EST)
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38. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Like I wrote; not belief just a lot of doubt.
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05-08-11, 01:31 PM (EST)
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35. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I gotta say -- I'm in the tinfoil hat crowd on this one. I do think MB interferes in the game. I think that after Stacy Stilman (and how she has been shut out of any Survivor related anything & the $$/attention that brings) the others players just keep their mouths shut about it ala "not biting the hand that feeds them." Heck, I think the *only* reason the stupid HII twist was introduced was so MB can have *more* influence than he already does. I can't *prove* this, but I 100% believe it.

I do agree with you, though, that it is Jeff's job to shake things up at TC & that what we see has been whittled down from hours of conversation. However, when push comes to shove, there has been rumors of Jeff shutting down the cameras, calling the other producers to discuss what to do, etc & getting that all straightened out before turning on the cameras again. So, while I believe most of the stuff he says at TC is him trying to stir stuff up for ratings & I don't mind that, I do believe that he can, and has, influenced the outcomes on at least 2 occasions (see, Janu & Sash/Jane).

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05-08-11, 11:00 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Whatever interferance MB might have with the game, he lets Jeff run TCs without interferance. The TC where Jeff reportedly stopped the filming and had a big production powwow before starting filming again involved one player accusing another of having offered to share the prize money, a bribe.
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05-08-11, 11:29 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Not the Janu TC though -- that was to discuss whether she would be on the jury if she quit -- and I think Jeff & MB allowed it (and, in fact, influenced Janu to quit) because they wanted to save Stephanie.

Whatever, I'm not trying to make a federal case over this -- it is a highly manipulated (even if only through editing) reality show that is for entertainment -- it isn't the United Nations.

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05-08-11, 11:41 PM (EST)
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43. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
It's also a fact that Yau Man wasn't planning on using the HII at F6 until Stacy opened her mouth and practically told him he was the target. It was Jeff's questions that made her talk.

Sometimes just stirring the pot is interference. Hatch said it way back in season 1: You have to lie at TC because Jeff tries to trip you up, to get you to make a mistake. Is that the job of the host? It does make for interesting TCs and I'm not saying he shouldn't do it but it does influence the game and the players.


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05-08-11, 07:19 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
LAST EDITED ON 05-08-11 AT 07:37 AM (EST)

Natalie did use Russell as a goat, bur from the perspective of the Galu juros, it was Russell that brought her along as a goat (true, he did). Natalie was never in much of a place to make a merge, and she never made a move that saved Russell or protected him.

I don't think the jury ever knew how close Natalie and Russell had been from the get-go until they saw the televised show.

When I speak of a jury punishing someone, I mean for taking out good people and purposefully protecting the goat, betraying allies to save a goat. That only applies to someone who is in a position of power, which Natalie White never was.

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33. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I understand but Natalie did choose Russell's side. On the day that Kelly was voted out, Natalie had to make a decision because Laura wanted her to join them. But Russell found the second idol so Natalie decided to stick with him. That's why Galu decided to vote against her at the next TC.
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39. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I disagree.

I think RI is a great idea. It's like the losers bracket in double elimination (sort of) of a sport. For many episodes, if Matt didn't win, he knew he was done. Where at the regular camps, you could lose and just coast through TC - if you're buddy's with the right people.

The object of Survivor isn't only to vote people out, it's to survive to the end. Just because Matt shakes a hand of someone on the other team and isn't a cute girl, he get's voted out. Yet he still survives.

Sorry, but that's exactly what it's about. Mike too, and Ralph if he remains. They deserve it every bit as the others - that's Survivor.


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05-08-11, 11:03 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
And the whole "vote people out & have them vote for you to win $1 million" thingy? Where does that fit into this stupid twist that makes it Survivor?

Look, Survivor isn't physics -- something with intrinsic properties that cannot be changed -- I realize that & I realize that MB & Probst can do any stupid twist they want with it & it will still be "Survivor" because it is their show -- BUT, RI does change something that has been a constant in Survivor for 20 seasons (besides making "The Tribe Has Spoken" completely meaningless): that is, the people in the finals had some part (either directly or indirectly) in voting out *most* of the people on the jury.

IMO, THAT'S SURVIVOR. And that will most certainly not be the case if Matt, Mike or Ralph come back & get into the F3.

Outwit, Outplay, Outlast -- not just Outlast.

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44. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I agree, plus I think the bonding on Redemption Island is unfair if one of the RI people gets to the final 3. They have too many friends on the jury that they didn't have to outwit to get there. Outwitting the survivors and getting them to vote for you is the hardest part of the game.
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05-09-11, 09:22 PM (EST)
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46. "Echoing CTGirl"
Echoing the same sentiments that CTGirl notes...I can live with one that wins every single challenge. But, there needs to be a consolation for losing and remaining on RI. There should be no others there with Matt. Bringing 4 people to live there, is indeed a tribe of losers. The losers are bitter and angry, and they bond with each other in their dejection and their plans for revenge. That stinks...I can live with ONE remaining on RI and having to win every duel. But, this bonding with all of the losers, and spending days with them, and the worst thing is they don't even have to WIN the challenges, they just have to not place last....

Seems like they are stacking the deck....I think if they get voted out, they should have to live the solitary life and WIN every single challenge to stay. Just my 2 cents worth...




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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-11, 11:00 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: Echoing CTGirl"
Are you proposing to keep them in solitary confinement until it is time to compete? That would definitely be better.

Jeff seems to love RI so I'd suggest to have only 1 returning player, continue with duels until 9 are left on the island and 2 on RI. The duel winner gets back in the game at that point, RI shuts down for the rest of the season and they start the jury with the following boot.

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kiki_k 1444 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 01:59 AM (EST)
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48. "RE: Echoing CTGirl"
I agree with that.

In fact, I think I said in some post (around merge) that I could have lived with the stupid RI twist if it ended at merge because it *does* sometimes seem that some people are unfairly voted out in the beginning of the game when the tribes haven't really "gelled" yet. Plus, we (as viewers) never even get to know those first pre-merge bootees. If nothing else (ie, the RI winner who comes back in at merge always gets booted to the jury ASAP), using RI like that (ie, only to merge) would give us a chance to get to know those players a little more. But having RI continue after merge is just stupid and I will NEVER like it.

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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 05:16 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Echoing CTGirl"
The nice thing about at least one additional person on RI is it gives a slight bit of elbow room to not have to WIN it every time. I think though 4 is too many and don't know why it needs to look like that.

I also wondered about keeping the RI "group" seperate until a challenge - keeping at least one of the "loosers" unknown until then and also keeping the whine-vote low(er) in the end.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 06:25 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Echoing CTGirl"
The reason why I think they should be made to win each and every duel definitively is because they are losers. They have been voted out by the entire tribe. It shouldn't be easy to stay in the game. I had a much better time with the twist as it was done in the first half of the season. The loser came and spent one night with them, then the next morning they have the duel and only the winner survives to duel another day.

I could live with that. This camp RI is for the birds, and only having to "not lose" is also pathetic...imho...


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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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05-09-11, 05:58 PM (EST)
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45. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Bondt007, I have been one of the biggest critics of Redemption Island but I do understand what you are saying. I'll tell you why I think RI isn't survivor:

Challenges on Survivor are extremely random. Every once in a while, you get lilly pads. That means that production has been extremely lucky for their first season to have a likable guy go on a winning streak. We could have had a procession of nobodies winning one week, losing the next until someone builds the highest house of cards. Building a house of cards, from my POV, has nothing to do with the game of Survivor.

RI adds a factor of randomness and there is already enough luck involved in winning. The HII can reward someone with a million dollars just for digging in the right spot. The F3 made it easier to get to the end: Fabio won last season because his winning streak enabled him to get to the F3 without getting blood on his hands. If only he had been on a F2 season, he would have had to eliminate one person directly to make it. RI will once again offer that opportunity: The only way the returning player wins is if he wins the last ICs after getting back to camp. How will the jury vote, asks this thread. Easy: They will vote for the guy that didn't vote them out but beat them fair and square in a challenge.

I am not a fan of the meaningless little games that Burnett offers as distraction for both the players and the audience. Shoot a ball and break a tile??? What does that have to do with what was introduced as a social experiment.

Maybe it's because I have played a half a dozen or so on-line games where you only get to the end by making alliances and by using strategy that I like the game of Survivor so much. I like to see the human interactions, the tribal dynamics, the strategy, the cut-throat aspect of the game. That is Survivor.

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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings
DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"

05-10-11, 05:33 PM (EST)
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50. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
Yes I see your point - don't get me wrong. But really S1 and to some degree S2 hardly had alliances so you could play this without. In the traditional play of the game, though, we have seen people in the F3 that would sell themselves as playing the game to get there but really someone just drug them there in a random lucky draw. They would deserve that break less IMO than the ultimate winner of RI - or as you point out lucking into the hidden II.

Remember too it's TV. S2 had the highest degree of actual "survival" when they were almost starving, etc. I don't know if that's better TV than the games and extra people hanging around and these experienced players that keep coming back, but I don’t blame MB trying various angles to, if anything, make it a little fresh and keep us on these boards critiquing it

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 06:14 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
I guess our main difference is that I do blame Burnett for trying different angles! Why? Because most fail: Tribal switches were introduced to break up alliances but, stupidly, they didn't realize that a switch always makes it easier for one side who can just throw challenges to keep the numbers. The HII in Cook Island was a joke because Yul wound up with a reserved seat to the F3, etc...

RI, in my mind, is already a failure because someone will make it to the finale by playing some random little games instead of playing THE game. Yes, we have seen people in the F3 that did very little to get there in previous seasons but the little they did was to avoid receiving the majority of votes at every TC. It isn't easy.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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05-10-11, 08:13 PM (EST)
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53. "RE: How will the Jury Vote?"
this has been mentioned, but I hadn't seen the whole video.
Ashley talks about Rob and jury perception:

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/survivor/video/?pid=XoZUPK3_f_IYGnZ1j2HVLJyXhC8AMkUX&vs=Secret%20Scenes&play=true

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