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"Merge Episode Boot..."
Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 09:50 AM (EST)
 
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"Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 09:53 AM (EST)Thought that the other threads were getting quite long, so at this point I am starting a boot discussion thread to mull over the prospects...We have: Rob...most likely misdirection. He's "on fire this season" Phillip....possible, but most likely misdirection, again. Rooster...has the HII, won't get the "power" Mike...biggest and buffest challenge contender from Zaps. Could go to RI and start a real run to the end. Spike in confessionals last week. Seems a likely target. Steve...taking over narrator responsibilities. We've heard from Steph that he's getting weak, despite size. Then, there is one more... I want to discuss something here that has not yet been discussed other places, at least that I have seen. In the promo we have this... VO: Then, the scrambling begins.
Mike: "This is where I got to go for broke."
Rob: "He's playing both sides."
Steve: "... this division between us."
Andrea: "I trusted Rob once before..."
Phillip: "This is a whole new game now."Mike is telling us how he sees it...he's a big target now in the minority group
Rob notes, "he's playing both sides", which alot of people suspect he's talking about Phillip. For me, however, he's not talking about Phillip, he's talking about Matt. If Matt is not given immunity, could he be toast? I have not heard anyone discussing this possibility. ALL of the misdirection clues are about Matt. But, because of the RI duel, we cannot see the winner in the promos...hidden. We need to think like Rob, AND, we need to think like David. If Matt is showing signs of voting with Ometepe, I could see David going to Rob to mutually kick Matt...I see David using his brilliant and strategic mind to maintain in this game, along with his tribe, the Zaps. I definitely do not see him throwing in the towel with the Zaps at all. He may later, as his options decrease, but not now. We know that Andrea is misdirection...she may not be against Rob at all, her clip is from post ep 2. Phillip is just Phillip, at this point. Thoughts? We can't take for granted that Matt gets immunity. ETA: Look at Rob looking at Matt here... 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 11:06 AM (EST)
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5. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
If David switches to vote with Rob,Actually, I am not proposing or thinking that David will flip to vote with Rob, I am trying to think how David will get the Zapatera's out of the boot spotlight this week. I think he may try to reach a mutual ground that they can all agree on, and vote out a common threat to them all first. I am trying to think how the collective Zaps will try and swing this one, and I think David has the best mind over there, and the most strategic... But, I definitely want to use this thread to discuss any and all possible scenarios...Rooster is definitely a viable target as well. I remember Rob stating in confessional once that because he has the HII, he now KNOWS that no one else has it...Another reason to hang on to the idol. And, another reason why he may want to go after Rooster.
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PepeLePew13 26134 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 11:23 AM (EST)
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8. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
What if Rob set up a voting scenario where he make loud noises in camp about voting Rooster (so that he hears about it and is forced to play his HII), then split up the votes so that both Rooster and Matt (or someone else like Philip/Mike) gets votes? I don't think Rob particularly cares which one of Rooster or Matt/Philip/Mike goes, as long as it's one of these two to eliminate some competition and he has achieved the goal of scaring out the HII.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 11:14 AM (EST)
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7. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Hi Travel_Queen! I don't know, I respectfully disagree. Look who Matt was up against in the first half of the season...Francesca, RussHell, Krista, Stephanie, Sarita. Now think about who Matt could be up against in the second half of the season...Mike, Steve, Rooster, David, Grant, and even possibly Rob himself. His chances of coming back into the game get less in the second half of the season, imo. And, even if Matt were to survive to end game, Rob making it that far is a tremendous feat that could arguably win him the game. It would be easy for Rob to note he had to get rid of Matt as he perceived him to be his greatest threat all along. If he were to survive the entire game on RI, it would prove his point.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 11:11 AM (EST)
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6. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Even though Rob was instrumental in booting Matt in the first place, it was by a consensus decision with Grant, Natalie and Ashley. Phillip and Andrea (and Kristina) were out of the loop. Rob can direct a vote against any Zapatera he selects, even against Phillip. But to get Matt out again at this point how does he get the votes with Matt's vote and five Zapatera votes also in the mix?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 11:28 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 11:32 AM (EST)But to get Matt out again at this point how does he get the votes with Matt's vote and five Zapatera votes also in the mix? I think David may come up with a plan, that he shares with the Zaps...they would ALL be in on it. What I am suggesting could happen is this. Clearly, the Zapatera's are in huge danger here. They perceive Matt most likely going back to the Ometepe's, which makes the chance of one of them going even higher. So, what would David do? I point to David as he is the smartest and most strategic player the Zaps have. One way to secure a few more days for them would be to propose a plan to Rob, as the perceived leader of the Ome's, that instead of targeting a Zap, how about they all (the core Ome alliance and the Zaps) agree to vote out a mutual threat to them all, Matt. There are some things that could happen with this scenario...1. The Zaps could do as they say and vote out Matt. 2. They could double cross the core alliance in Ometepe and vote an Ome off. Both choices would save all of the Zaps for at least another TC.... If this scenario were to play out, I could see Rob play his HII in fear of a double cross...Matt would still go home, with 4 votes. Matt, Phillip and Andrea probably wouldn't be in on anything and would vote for who Rob tells them to vote for on the Zaps, most likely Mike. Edited to get rid of a prior tangent! Ha
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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 12:06 PM (EST)
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12. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
I love theorizing!Rob: We've been shown some foreshadowing of this, with Phillip being a loose-cannon, and who-knows-what-Matt-thinks... but Rob has shown to be more worried of Matt than Matt of Rob. Phillip seems to be easily controlled by soothing words (which Rob is a master at, per Matt's earlier confessional). If there were ever a time to get rid of Rob, it'd be this episode... but I don't see it. *safe* Phillip: Rob has talked more about Phillip than about all other survivors put together. It wouldn't make sense for Rob to sacrifice Phillip right now, and the Zaps don't have the voting power to get rid of him (especially if they think he's swingable). *mildly safe* Rooster: Rob likes to keep tabs on where the hidden idol is. I can see him tricking Rooster into playing the idol, but right now I don't see Ralph as a threat, so I don't think this is his episode. *mildly safe* Mike: Traditionally speaking, you get rid of the challenge beasts immediately or risk taking them to the finals. He's the strongest non-Grant person left. He had a spike in confessionals, he's featured in the commercials, and had his "storytelling" confessionals taken over by Steve... plus, Zaps are no more, so if there's no story left to tell, there's no need for a storyteller. *unsafe* Steve: I thought about having him go last week, and was kinda-sorta guilted into not changing my vote. But everything I said last week still holds true: He's weak (even though he looks tough), and he had a dip/spike in confessionals. I think he's likely to be the alternate boot candidate. *unsafe* Matt: Flips/blindsides happen at lower odd numbers (5, 7, maybe 9), not at 12. If he flips, it's 6v6. He hasn't been shown to be against Rob - he's been shown that he's looking forward to coming home. He wasn't shown as having a miserable time at RI (which would go towards having him get revenge - "see how YOU like living in isolation, Rob!") Andrea is shown to be skeptical of Matt, not shown as looking forward to having him come back so she can create a 3-person team. There MIGHT be a 3-person team of Matt/Andrea/Phillip, but this isn't the time to switch it up (if they switched, they'd eventually be 3v5 Zaps). He prefers to make friends, not to shake things up. *safe* I think the question really is, when's the duel-boot? This episode, next, or never?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 01:41 PM (EST)
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14. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 02:32 PM (EST)The thing about David, that gives me hope, is that Jiffy has been all over him in the tweets. David is the one that I would have be the leader, every season we need to have a "David"....blah, blah, blah. And, let's face it, he's a genius lawyer. He makes a living out of thinking of alternatives. At the position that they are going into the merge, and with Matt looking like he's going to re-join the Ome's, he has to come up with a way to buy them all more time....this is a way to do it, imo. I don't even know if David would be the one to appeal to Rob...maybe they would have Mike do it...or someone else. I'm just saying I wouldn't be surprised for David to rationally come up with a plan to save them all. He'll discuss it with all of the Zaps and get them all on board. The thing that they may underestimate is Rob. He could say they are going along with them and spill it all to Matt, to make him get in line...who knows, what and how they'll react. Dabo also has a point. I was thinking if they did agree to take Matt out, that perhaps it could be business as usual next week, Omes vs. Zaps....I don't know. It seems like it will be more complicated, especially with the votes. There are MANY possibilities. I wouldn't even be surprised if Natalie wins the IC, that Rob could possibly talk her into giving it to Grant before the vote is read...that could be supposedly jaw dropping. As none of the Zaps would likely target Nat, while they would all possibly target Grant...I don't know. I do like the idea that they will pull what they did with Kristina, on Ralph as well. Just to make him play it, when in actuality the only vote he may get is Phillip's...Rob could perhaps tell Phillip, Matt and Andrea to all vote Ralph, so he'd play the idol....then post TC, they'd have Matt and Ralph's idol out. I agree that they will most likely want to say they are voting for Ralph, for him to play the idol, but it WILL be someone else that ends up getting the boot....either Mike, or Matt. Whoever doesn't have the II. ETA: I am positive that Rob is not on board with Matt coming back into the fold. All of those insider clips of him questioning Matt are hidden from the public in that they have not made the show. He's clear about Matt....he was born at night, but not last night. Rob knows that Matt is playing an "end game"....he's likable, he's great in challenges, he's clearly a huge threat to Rob. He can deal with him now, when he's got everyone in the merge that he could use...numbers, OR, he can deal with him later, when he's even more dangerous. What would you do, if you were Rob?
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 02:21 PM (EST)
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17. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 02:42 PM (EST)Thanks for getting this discussion going FloPo. Lots of great ideas and discussion...
The previews for this week are edited to create drama and suspense for the upcoming merge. While the Vidcap spotted by VG confirms our speculation that Matt will be returning, the promos are trying to hid that fact.
The clues paint a picture of Matt grappling with a difficult decision, and a bold move. The sound bites are spliced together to make us think Ometepe is beginning to splinter with Matt’s return. Flowerpower made an excellent observation about EP3 footage of Andrea being used in the promos for this week. The editors probably didn’t have any footage from EP8 that showed Andrea questioning her loyalty to the Ometepe, so they used old footage in an effort to create doubt, where there really isn’t any. Rob is shown mentioning that someone (Matt) is playing both sides, but eventually Rob will shake on a deal with the mystery hand, that most have concluded is probably Matt. So, the misdirection looks like this: Matt will weigh his options, but in the end shake on a deal with Rob to vote with the old Ometepe. Andrea has been edited having doubts about Rob and Matt, but in the end will stick with them. Phillip will explain that "it’s a whole new game, and then do everything exactly as he did before. The old Ometepe reunited with Matt will have 7 votes against the Zapatera 5. While voting Matt our would be a bold move, I don't think the timing is right...for the time being, Matt is more valuable to Rob as part of his voting block. If Rob booted him back to RI, he would become vulnerable to Phillip or Andrea flipping to the Zapatera’s, in which case they would gain the numerical advantage. I think Rob’s priority will be flushing Ralph’s idol, and establishing a numerical buffer. If a Zap goes this week Rob has a 7-4 advantage that gives him lots of flexibility the following week. Mike fits the merge boot profile, but is shown in the previews saying “I have to go for broke”. He appears to be the Zapatera boot decoy. I get the feeling something happens that spares him this week. He may “go for broke” and win immunity, he may be spared by the jaw dropping events at TC. Ralph may give him his idol in an effort to surprise the Ometepe, and be voted out instead. Steve has been reported to be weak and ineffective in challenges, so he is no longer an immediate target. Julie is not a threat and the male dominated tribe would not worry about a women’s alliance either, so she is probably safe. Rob may view David as a potential defector from the Zaps, so would probably want to keep him around short term, but Rob will realize he’s too smart to keep around for long. Rob is probably most concerned about having his alliance vote for someone who plays Ralph’s idol, thereby having the remaining votes take out him or another member of his voting block. The sooner the idol is flushed, the sooner Rob can systematically pick off the Zaps. Ralph will probably be a target. He may chose not to play the idol and get burned. He may give his idol to Mike and get a stray vote or Rob’s bold move will be to split the Zapatera vote knowing he will be the target but safe because he plans to play his idol at TC. So, my guess would be that the jaw dropping TC has to do with how idols are played or not played at TC. And that Mike or Ralph will be going home. Edited to add: The other possibility is that Mike goes for broke and strikes a deal with Rob to split the vote between, Ralph and David, while Rob has input into where Mike directs the Zap vote. In this case David would go to RI.
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 02:50 PM (EST)
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19. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 02:58 PM (EST)Hiya, Krautboy! I was hoping you would get a chance to chime in here. How I love your voice of reason. The three things that give me pause regarding a Matt boot: 1. If they got out Matt this week, how would Rob pull in Phillip and Andrea next week...as Dabo noted. This is tricky. I think it could be done though, somehow. 2. Ralph's HII. Once again, I come down to that statement that was quite powerful that Rob made...."besides, if I have it, I know that they don't have it! There is no doubt in my mind that they won't try and pull what they did with Kristina, and spread around that Ralph will be the target, in the effort to get him to play it. But, does he even need to get a vote to play the idol? No, not if he really thinks he's going to be the target. Once they flush the idol from him, they can pick him off anytime. They could threaten to vote him off to get him to use his idol, and then throw all of their votes some place else.... 3. Phillip. Phillip is my number one candidate as to why this is going to be a "jaw-dropping" TC. Phillip is going to go off in a big way, just as he did in the first TC...at least it's what I expect. If he goes so far off the deep end, could he turn out to be the boot? Especially if he reveals his Rob contempt and hints at alliances with others... ETA: What do folks see David doing/thinking in this episode?
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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 03:10 PM (EST)
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20. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
I like the idea that David goes to Rob with a "plea bargain" - we'll flush out Ralph's idol, if you agree to vote out Matt.I also really like the idea that Zap gets rid of Matt (poor guy), with Ometepe splitting their vote for Ralph/Mike (flush the idol, get rid of Matt). But Dave would know they could get rid of Rob right then instead of Matt... and Rob would know that Dave knows (and plan accordingly?)... and the "handshake" looks like Mike now per that extra photo... so this awesomeness won't be happening. Does the "handshake" and scrambling happen before or after individual immunity was up for grabs? I think that matters. I'd love a Phillip blowup like this:
"Well, me & Andrea had a secret alliance, and she's not going to honor it because she wants to stick with Rob, so now I'm not going to honor it either, and my vote will be for her boyfriend, Matt."
"Uh... Matt's not my boyfriend."
"That's not what you said to me. You said you hated Rob for what he did to Matt, and hated how the women were superficial hair-talkers, and Rob said I was fifth, which makes you sixth..."
"Uh..."
"Yes. I time-travel to watch the TV episodes and then travel back, that's how I know all these confessionals. I'm a secret agent. That's what we do. Gorilion!"
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 07:52 PM (EST)
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23. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
David is smart and realizes the merge gets him out of the hotseat. The attention will all be on Matt, so David will probably be content to watch the events from the perimeter. He is not an obvious target and will probably avoid doing anything to attract too much attention. If he has a plan to make a move, I think it would be next week after the new dynamics of the merged tribe are more clearly defined. David could become a casualty of an idol flushing, but I doubt that he will do anything to draw attention to himself this week.
Krautboy
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 09:31 AM (EST)
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32. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Krautboy, you were spot on concerning David...
David is smart and realizes the merge gets him out of the hotseat. The attention will all be on Matt, so David will probably be content to watch the events from the perimeter.If he has a plan to make a move, I think it would be next week after the new dynamics of the merged tribe are more clearly defined. Now, I think you have predicted exactly what is going to happen with David. Did you see that he was the one that had all of the major "reaction" shots last night when assessing the Boston Rob moves. He thought it was "genius". Clearly, this looks like foreshadowing to me. David did as Krautboy predicted...laid back and stayed out of the spotlight as the big dogs postured. Now, as the new dynamics are more clearly defined, as you so eloquently stated, he will form a plan, imo, that doesn't include the rest. So, while the Zaps may come a courting for Phillip, David, may come a courting for Rob....just thinking...
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parathor 250 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 10:13 AM (EST)
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33. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
The best solution (from an armchair quarterback's standpoint) would be for David to instruct the Zap-5 to each "secretly" court Rob, or individual people in his alliance, saying "I don't want to be with the Zap, I want to be with you."If all 5 did that, separately, then maybe some of them would be saved... and at the very least, it might break up the Ome-6. Maybe at a tribal council, they could let slip that they're secretly in an alliance with Rob (or whomever), which would further cause confusion (or doubt) within the Ome-6. But I doubt they're that far-sighted. They'll try to woo someone over to their group-of-5, fail... try to woo two people to their group-of-4... fail......
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 08:48 PM (EST)
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25. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Here's how I see Mike this week. First of all, the man is a Naval Academy Graduate and he's served 2 tours in Iraq. He lives and breathes for his team. I know this is Survivor, but I do not see him throwing any of his peers under the bus. No ifs, ands, or buts. If he goes to make a deal with Rob, I think it will be in the interest of the team. I do not see him doing anything individually that would benefit him in lieu of one of his teammates. Also, there is no way that I see Rob agreeing to do anything with Mike. Rob knows that Mike is the biggest challenge threat at Zap, he's got to be one of Rob's number one targets. So, I suppose the only thing I could possibly see is if Mike goes and tries to talk to Rob on behalf of the Zaps... I think Mike saying that he needs to go for broke must refer to leaving it all out on the court, so to speak. He needs to give it everything he's got, at every challenge. fwiw...
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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04-06-11, 10:36 AM (EST)
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28. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
OK, if the handshake was between Mike and Rob, and Mike still got voted out, wouldn't the editors would have shown us both Mike and Rob as misdirection?The handshake either saves Mike or is Matt who the editors were hiding as the returnee. I agree with Flowerpower that Mike would not make a deal that would hurt his tribe, so the handshake must be Matt.
Krautboy
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 09:18 PM (EST)
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26. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-05-11 AT 09:22 PM (EST)that was my thought as well, BR. Julie or Steve are least likely. David is a potential flipper, so useful. Mike and Ralph are the two most likely to have the HII. Another thing that could happen is that both vote targets play an HII and there are no votes that count the first time around. On the second vote, those who played the idol would be safe and probably eligible to vote. Whatever David does, and if he's so smart he should totally switch to individual game here and let the other Zaps go down in flames -- Rob is not a trusting guy, and I don't know why he would rely on David's ability or sincerity in an offer to control Zap votes. JT lost the game because he relied on a division within the Villains to create an ally for the Heroes. I don't see Rob putting himself in that position. For that reason, I see Rob primarily relying on his own votes (his loyal allies) to get the job done that he wants. However, he no longer trusts Phillip to do as he's told. I think Rob will see Matt as a guy of his word. I agree with FP that Mike will not turn on Zapatera to save himself.
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-05-11, 10:42 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Just as a note on the TC procedure:
it was suggested that someone might give Rob the IN before the votes were read.The IN can only be transferred before the vote. Remember that no one is allowed to vote for whoever owns the necklace. The HII can be transferred after the vote but before the reading, and it is played after the vote as well Thus there can be votes for the person who plays the HII. The danger in giving away the IN, is that everyone can simply switch their votes to the newly vulnerable immunity challenge winner, as happened with Erik. The only time I know that it worked out as a play was when Jenna M gave hers to Heidi. Jenna was sick and wretched and ready to quit, and that's probably why she didn't get voted out. 
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 09:15 AM (EST)
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31. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
After last nights episode, I wanted to re-visit this thread. Where we went wrong. Clearly, Matt was threatening to Rob...we knew that, we have heard it, but we have especially heard it in the insider clips, where it was hidden from the general public....so, it could be surprising to John Q Public.Also, I really blew it when I thought of who would finally step up to lead the Zaps. With Jeff's clues regarding David and his IQ and his defense attorney's brilliant mind, I thought it would be him that came up with strategy. Jeff even noted that David would be his pick to lead this tribe. I did entertain that it could come from David, but he could have Mike do the representing to the Omes. I underestimated Mike. Mike is the military background, good boy with the military strategic mind....of course it should have come from him, easy to see in retrospect now. He, Mike, revealed alot in this last episode, that has not been revealed to us so far. And, I think it has been the editing that has misled us. Up to now, they have only had Mike as a narrator....we have seen nothing of his thoughts and strategy, nor have we seen his close retationships. Sarita told Matt on RI when she arrived that Mike was the "best" one in the whole tribe...Mike had a bargain with Rooster, Rooster gave up his prized idol for him. Mike has stepped up as the leader that was never shown. In his first confessional of the show, he stated something like he was looking forward to a worthy "adversary" like Boston Rob. He revealed that he too has a strong Christian faith, like Matt...this, more than anything probably signaled a big red flag to Boston Rob. Krautboy was also right, and I was wrong, thinking that Mike would not throw any of his tribe under the bus....but, it sure sounded like that's exactly what he would have done. My bad! But, it gives us alot more insight now, into Mike. Who has Mike aligned with to the end. Clearly, only one other person is in it, and I believe that that person is Rooster....So, Mike offered number three to Matt....Mike was 1, Rooster 2...so Mike would throw David, Steve, Julie all under the bus. Or, was Mike just stringing Matt along? This is what we don't know, and in the end, I don't know if Mike would have honored this deal, or was it his desperate attempt to swing the big move? I really think that we have to indeed think like Boston Rob and we can't underestimate him. I think he has a memory like an elephant and he's a seasoned veteran. Now the seasoned veteran is coming up against the 2 time war hero...now this should be a worthy competitor! A few other notes after last night...Andrea. Andrea was shocked at Matt's bold plans, and then infuriated that he would tell Rob all about them. Her insider clip confirms this. She felt like she couldn't trust Matt. She told him, do not tell anyone about this, and he promised he wouldn't and then he goes and tells Rob all about it. Andrea had no choice, imo, but to vote with Rob. In my opinion, she has just become invaluable to Rob. Phillip. Wow, did he turn around. See, perhaps he is smarter than we give him credit for. But, clearly the Zaps can see where he is in the hierarchy of things, as per David's insider clip. Look to them to go for Phillip. But, Andrea also noted that the Ome's need to woo Phillip, make him feel secure. Looks like Phillip is going to get the attention that he has so clearly yearned for...
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Chillicrab 50 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 10:24 AM (EST)
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35. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Not trying to argue or fault your view points, just wondering where my 2-cents worth stand.>After last nights episode, I wanted
>to re-visit this thread. Where
>we went wrong. Clearly, Matt
>was threatening to Rob...we knew
>that, we have heard it,
>but we have especially heard
>it in the insider clips,
>where it was hidden from
>the general public....so, it could
>be surprising to John Q
>Public. Yes, the people I watched this with don't read these boards and couldn't believe that Matt was sent back to RI by his girlfriend and his old tribe. They did not see the rationale of sending him back nor risking a tie.
Well, I read these threads and did not think that this could really happen till it did. Hindsight, it is a necessary move with too many possibilities of backlash. But David's captioned,"Genius, that's what it is" comment seems telling, that backlash possibilities that actually play out later on are limited.
>Krautboy was also right, and I
>was wrong, thinking that Mike
>would not throw any of
>his tribe under the bus....but,
>it sure sounded like that's
>exactly what he would have
>done. My bad! But, it
>gives us alot more insight
>now, into Mike. Who has
>Mike aligned with to the
>end. Clearly, only one other
>person is in it, and
>I believe that that person
>is Rooster....So, Mike offered number
>three to Matt....Mike was 1,
>Rooster 2...so Mike would throw
>David, Steve, Julie all under
>the bus. Or, was Mike
>just stringing Matt along?
>This is what we don't
>know, and in the end,
>I don't know if Mike
>would have honored this deal,
>or was it his desperate
>attempt to swing the big
>move?
He wrote the note to Matt with Steve looking on, so I thought and still think that Steve was no.2, just as the Throll had said that Mike and Steve were tight. Alliances revealed don't survive right? Just as well it did not work or Mike would have to go back on his word, written in black and white, or betray his tribe. Not good for the reputation of the Marines.
Also, writing it down and passing notes are not good game playing. Even if you are sure of getting Matt, you don't want to give such information to the other tribe. Natalie saw the note being passed! Matt showed the note to Andrea. >A few other notes after last
>night...Andrea. Andrea was shocked at
>Matt's bold plans, and then
>infuriated that he would tell
>Rob all about them. Her
>insider clip confirms this. She
>felt like she couldn't trust
>Matt. She told him, do
>not tell anyone about this,
>and he promised he wouldn't
>and then he goes and
>tells Rob all about it.
>Andrea had no choice, imo,
>but to vote with Rob.
>In my opinion, she has
>just become invaluable to Rob. Wonder how Rob convinced her to stick with him, a secret final 3 pact that we were not shown? Of course Matt made it easy by waffling so much, and "confessed" to the Godfather without giving her the heads up and implicating her as well. >Phillip. Wow, did he turn around.
>See, perhaps he is smarter
>than we give him credit
>for. But, clearly the Zaps
>can see where he is
>in the hierarchy of things,
>as per David's insider clip.
>Look to them to go
>for Phillip. But, Andrea also
>noted that the Ome's need
>to woo Phillip, make him
>feel secure. Looks like Phillip
>is going to get the
>attention that he has so
>clearly yearned for... Do you think that they will want to court Phillip after all the nasty things he said about them at tribal council?
I don't get to see the insider clips at my "geographical region"  When Matt disappeared, he asked where Andrea was. At tribal council, Rob said that he has not seen anything like this, that it is strange that the tribes did not interact outside the tribes of origin. Of course the Omes behaved this way. They saw what happened when Matt was friendly with the Zaps, and saw how exacting Rob could be. That tells me that Rob has the Omes under tight control.
Regardless, Rob would not have Matt sticking too long, Matt just made it easier for him to keep his tribe on his side with all that indecisiveness and letting the cat out of the bag.
Ashley was seen hanging around Matt in quite a few shots, was that under their leader's orders to keep the enemy closer, or is that giving Rob to much credit?
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 10:46 AM (EST)
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36. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Nice assessments and thoughts, Chillcrab!Well, the public was blindsided with a Matt boot, and we were almost blindsided with it. I was thinking when I posted this thread that NO one anywhere had even mentioned Matt as a boot target. That's what I wanted to explore. I have always seen Matt as a threat to Rob, and in the insider clips, Rob let us know exactly how he felt about Matt..."Matt could come back into this game, and Matt says he wants to come back to Ometepe...I was born at night, but not last night, etc." Since those were hidden in the insider clips, the producers didn't want everyone to see them, but they provide so much insight as to what they are thinking. This week is particularly good as well. Natalie talks about her "unbreakable" alliance with Rob, Grant talks about how he is not worried at all about going to RI, and Andrea gives us insight into how she felt Matt threw her under the bus and could have ruined her plans to get to the F3. Definitely you are right....alliances revealed are not always the ones that succeeed. Sounds like Andrea has made some inroads to me. James Barber at Survivor Sucks often will transcribe the Insider Clips. We need to be more diligent in bringing them over here for those that do not have access to them. I will try and look out for them. Regarding Mike's #2. You could be right, it could be Steve. But, I think I may not be so wrong about MIke....I don't know if in the end, had Matt joined up with them, if he would have thrown his tribe members under the bus before Matt. Look at Rooster, he gave Mike his only protection...his HII. Seems like Mike is really the most popular at Zap. We also heard Sarita as she joined Matt on RI at night, tell Matt that Mike was her favorite, the best man, blah, blah, blah. Seems like MIke has really played alot better game than what we've been shown. I also found it interesting that he never revealed to Matt or Andrea WHO his number 2 was. Therefore, he was not specifically throwing any of them under the bus....very clever. Also in the insider clips this week, David says that they already know that Phillip is low man on the Ometepe totem pole...so yes, I definitely think they will try for those outliers, the ones low on the hierarchy to sway over to their side. He is the must vulnerable person to flip sides at this point. You make some great observations regarding how the Ometepe's were not mingling with the Zapatera's, but more shocking for me was why the Zaps weren't really trying to mingle with them, the dominant tribe. Look how receptive Jane and Holly were last season to Chase, Brenda, Benry, etc. It got them really far.
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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04-12-11, 09:57 AM (EST)
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49. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Hiya aj! You and Tribe both held firm with the Matt boot, and definitely you guys get great KUDO's this week! Wish I had held firm, like you! But, what I meant when I noted that no one mentioned Matt as a boot target, until I posted this thread....I just didn't notice anyone talking about Matt as the boot in any other threads, and not on any other boards as well. That's all. Don't hesitate to knock me over the head with good thoughts! I'll listen! Hey, what are you thinking for this week? Thanks, fp 
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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 11:50 AM (EST)
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37. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
LAST EDITED ON 04-07-11 AT 11:52 AM (EST)Where we went wrong Once again it came down to underestimating how INCREDIBLY STUPID one of the players would be. I think we all figured that BRob would want to get rid of Matt again eventually, maybe even before all the Zaps were gone. I thought Matt would at least do a good job of convincing BRob that it wouldn't be necessary to do it right away. But no. It was interesting how little the Hiis ended up figuring into Ometepe's strategizing. They never said anything about trying to flush out Ralph's idol, did they? Obviously Brob was glad that it got needlessly played, but before that there was no mention of it. I suppose once BRob got fixated on revoting out Matt the Zap hii didn't matter. In fact, I would have liked to hear BRob address the Matt boot from the strategic stance that it allowed him to not play his own idol. Since we didn't, I suspect he wasn't worried about that.
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tribephyl 12393 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 04:16 PM (EST)
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40. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
They never said anything about trying to flush out Ralph's idol, did they? Well, what was heard by Rob was Matt telling him that Steve would be the least likely to receive the HI from Rooster. So Rob knew Rooster had it, that he would use it on possibly either himself or Mike, (or Julie?) dependent upon who the Zaps thought would receive the Ome votes. The funny thing to me is that Zap got swooned into the thought that the Omes would be targeting their strongest competitor.
Thereby leading Ralph to freely relinquish his HI to Mike. When in actuality (had Matt not ruined his own game) the target would have been Steve.
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CTgirl 8013 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 05:17 PM (EST)
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41. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
I thought Steve was the target because they were expecting exactly what happened - Rooster to give his HII to Mike. We didn't see them talking about it but I'm sure they did.
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Chillicrab 50 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-11, 02:45 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Actually they did talk about it.
Irony is, Rob talked about voting for Mike on the cliff with Matt and Andrea. Matt said that it was better to target Steve or Julie, and Rob said then they should vote Steve or Julie or something like that, then Matt said that he was confident that Ralph will not give his idol to Steve, so Steve it was. So the one with the plan to flushed the idol went to RI. Irony.
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Gothmog 2886 desperate attention whore postings
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04-07-11, 07:39 PM (EST)
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42. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Where we went wrong.I think the simplest explanation is that the usual tools of the spoiling community--preview vidcaps, confessional spikes, editing from previous episodes, etc.--were all giving out mixed messages because of the nature of the Redemption Island twist. OFG Theory didn't apply because Matt couldn't be shown as a potential target in the previews without giving away the outcome of the duel. The editing of the social game in previous episodes couldn't give away any clues because there were no interactions between Matt and anyone else to work from, since Matt was isolated for so long. Just think: if the first half of last night's episode (up until Matt had his convo with Rob ending in a handshake) had been shown the previous week, his boot would have been much easier to spot--the clues were all over the place. Of course, by the time we saw it coming, it was too late to spoil. The instructive thing here is to be aware of the same potential difficulties when the next RI contestant returns (which I believe is F5, right?). The boot in that episode might not be readily apparent from the previews or the editing of the social game, so more options should be considered. 
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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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04-08-11, 02:33 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Merge Episode Boot..." |
Excellent points, Gothmog.The teasers were arguably all about Matt, but there was no video of what Matt was doing during the post-duel time. We got the handshake, but couldn't be allowed to see Mike talking to Matt. FlowerPower guessed that Rob spoke of Matt as the person playing both sides. Phillip could have fit that though, or David. Basically we had three storylines set up for someone to flip. Matt seemed like the most trustworthy of the three, and Rob needed six votes. My reasoning was that Matt was more reliable if he gave his word than Phillip or David. Who could know that Matt had serious talks with Zapatera? I agree that it was hidden from us that Mike was the type to really negotiate with Matt, as we hadn't seen that side of him. One thing not mentioned about Mike is that on top of Marine, combat veteran and football player and Naval Academy grad, Mike has an advanced degree in economics and has taught college level econ before becoming a high end realtor. Econ was not my top subject at school, but I did take it, and I think it's as hard as law or more so. (My one grandfather was a Wharton School grad and had a long career as a professor of economics and I know he was brilliant.) So the "upstairs" part of Mike had been back-burnered by the editing. As an economist, he surely understands trade-offs and odds and dynamics of supply and demand. As a realtor he deals in wish fulfillment, sales, negotiating. I personally did not expect him to go quietly. That's why I voted for "dense as a log" Ralph. However, I also though Rob might aim for Steve or Julie.
I did not foresee Mike aiming at Grant, but I did see that Rob couldn't afford to assume he could bounce the Zap vote with his own idol and split his votes -- because then all the Zapatera had to do was all five vote Grant. Which they did. It was also not shown why Mike didn't aim for Rob, but perhaps he guessed Rob would have the idol. Then we also could not know what Phillip would do. If Phillip made a "big move" as Rob said he might, then Rob would have no choice but to use Matt's vote. He couldn't have afforded to misdirect that vote if he were dubious about Phillip. My regret for last week was all the energy spent on the double boot spec, Maybe we can remember for next time -- they always promote that, and here it is this week. http://community.realitytvworld.com/boards/User_
files/4d6c77f2d539489d.jpg
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) I'm still up in the air (even more now than before, LOL) and I look forward to hearing everyone's opinions on whom they think will get the boot this week! It should be an exciting episode!
