Yep, that's what I am thinking too. Since we're talking about this over here instead of the vidcap thread, I'll repost my thoghts here:

Talking about jumping and all that made me take a look at the alliances right now and see what's there.

We have Ometepe: Rob, Ashley, Natalie, Grant as the core four with Andrea and Phillip as numbers five and six.

We have Zappy: Steve, Mike, Ralph, Julie and David.

We have Matt (I'm assuming he comes back in the game).

As Matt looks at things, it makes no sense for him to align with Zappy as that creates a tie vote. His best bet is to stay quiet, vote with the majority, and make inroads with people as the two tribes fight for the upper hand.

If he's smart (and that's a big if admittedly), Phillip won't jump ship either at this point for the same reason. Even if he got Andrea to jump with him, it makes no sense to be the bottom two of a seven person alliance. They're better off as five and six in the Ometepe alliance.

If I were Phillip, Andrea and Matt, I'd wait until there were two Zappy's left and then form a five person alliance that gets rid of the Ometepe Four. Probably with Julie and David since Steve, Mike and Ralph will be the targets first.

Of course, if I were Rob, I'd take out two Zappys (Mike and Ralph?) and then get rid of Phillip or Matt.

Now this all assumes everyone's going to make a smart move (at least I think they're smart moves...), but of course we know Survivors make bad moves all the time!