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"Debb's friends..."
AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-01-01, 11:20 PM (EST)
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"Debb's friends..." |
OK, now I can feel doubly stupid. We NOT ONLY knew about the burning, but someone (I don't remember whom right now) brought up Debb Eaton's chat this week. Debb was asked who she kept in touch with. She answered Maralyn, Mitchell, Kimmi, Michael and Jeff. How was that for a clue? A big fat one right in my face and I missed it? And the worst thing was ... it was a reply to one of my own posts!So, based on the Debb theory, I see Jeff as a soon-to-be EX-Survivor. Probably a 5-5 tie, and Jeff loses on the double tiebreak. After that, we have no evidence...but it's hard to believe that Alicia won't go right after Jeff. But then life gets interesting. We KNOW where Jerri will finish in an Ogakor Alliance: just where Sean did in the Tagi Alliance, fifth. SO she (and Amber) have to turn on her colleagues at some point. That would explain the "black widow" imagery, especially if she is going after Colby. There are two choices IF she can keep he alliance with Amber: she can switch when there are two Kucha left or when there is one Kucha left. I'm guessing that she would prefer to be in an alliance with Elisabeth, if she has to pick a Kucha. She would prefer to wait until it's 3-3 and then pick off Keith, but she might not be able to do so if Liz is the target earlier. That could happen if someone else from Kucha wins IC in E10. So, in E7, I think Jeff goes, and in E8 Alicia. In E9, either Rodger or Nick (Jerri uses her influence to prevent Liz from being the target). But in either E10 or E11, the black widow starts to pick off her own tribe. How much credence should you give this theory? About as much as you give TV Guide when it tells us that a sixth member is "voted" out of the tribe...
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shakes the clown 3366 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-01-01, 11:27 PM (EST)
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1. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
It comes down to one thing.....Does Kucha know the tie-breaker rule and will they be able to figure out who has the most votes on Ogakor...if they have both of those answers then the ONLY person that could be voted off in the next episode is Keith cause he is the only person with more votes than Jeff.But, what happens if Keith wins immunity...then they wold have to vote off Jerri who has 2 votes...that would set up a tiebreaker b/w Jeff and Jerri. I just figured something out....in order for your theory to work the tribes have to know who has votes for the other tribe or else how would Ogakor know to vote off Jeff. Unless someone on Kucha slips up and lets out the info by accident.
Jeff seems very personable, what's to say he didn't make an effort to reconnect with all the survivors once the show was over...they've had 3 months to get to know each other thru phone calls and emails.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-01-01, 11:51 PM (EST)
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2. "Jeff as target" |
LAST EDITED ON 03-02-01 AT 00:52 AM (EST)I don't think the tribes know who has drawn votes. Ogakor has a clear leader: Colby. Kucha doesn't, now that Michael's gone. Were I on Ogakor, I would not target Rodger, because he's clearly the weakest physically (anyone for some sand?). That leaves Jeff, Nick, Alicia, and Liz. Of that crew, I'd go for Jeff or Nick first. I figured that they would target Jeff either because he looks more like a leader or because Nick is immune. But the sole reason for my pick of Jeff is not logic, but it comes from these two posts: First, with regard to the next to go, here is an excellent analysis by siebured. He was tying this in to the "Mad Dog 4" theory. As you probably have read by now, there were only five people from the show that Maralyn said she did not keep in touch with: Amber, Jerri, Elisabeth, Nick, and Michael. (The "Mad Dog 4" theory said that this was the final four plus one. At the time, I thought the extra one was Jerri, but now I'd say it was Michael, and Maralyn didn't get to know him because he was hospitalized and not in her tribe.) http://community.survivorblows.com/boards/DCForumID2/640.shtml#3 In case you don't want to follow the link, siebured noted that Michael looked like he would go "sooner that you think." Jeff looks the same. By contrast, NO ONE has said they keep in touch with Amber, Nick or Elisabeth, and only Mitchell has named Jerri. And my pick of Jerri to go to the final four and stab the rest of Ogakor in the back comes from this chat, which colbysincharge picked up and I pooh-poohed: colbysincharge 02-19-01, 02:57 PM (EST) ---------------------------------------- 1. "RE: hindsight" for example: mitch says I wish I was 30 years old and playing this game. why does he choose 30 years old? jerri's age? does he mean that jerri knows how to play the game and can seperate the game from her friends? does this mean jerri will go far?
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-02-01, 01:02 AM (EST)
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5. "But how does Jerri survive?" |
Krautboy, first -- my congratulations on your pick this week. You were one of only two voters to trust MB, and you were right to do so.My problem with Jerri defecting early is this: how does she survive without the Kucha voting her off? Right now, Kucha seems like a tightly-knit group. Why wouldn't they vote Jerri off before any of them, if she defected now? She'd finish sixth that way, and fifth if she stuck to Ogakor. In other words, there is no incentive for her to defect now. She can't defect until she and Amber have achieved at least parity with the remaining Kucha (thus, not until 5 Ogakor v. 2 Kucha, and maybe not even until 5 Ogakor v. 1 Kucha). Otherwise, she finishes worse by defecting than she does by remaining loyal.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-02-01, 01:31 AM (EST)
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8. "Recycled challenges" |
I would be very surprised of the obstacle course EVER gets used. But I don't know the planned challenge, and I don't think the other sites do either. There is no RC, and everyone is down by the water to meet Jeff for the IC; could they be repeating last year's first post-merger challenge (hold breath underwater, top three race for immunity)?
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Minstrel 422 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Daytime Soap Guest Star"
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03-02-01, 01:49 AM (EST)
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9. "RE: Jeff as target" |
Aya, I agree with a lot you've said here. First, on Mitch's statement. He's 23 and it shows(?). He's stupid (we know that). I think he thinks being 30 will have given him the wisdom to play the game better.The Debb chat is interesting. It does raise suspicion on Jeff. Right now, I see Kucha so together from what happened to Mike and from the preview, Ogakor evidently comes in and causes trouble. Aka, Jerri's havoc. Man, she has got to be the number one target! Only if she wins immunity, will it save her. We know she has three of the other four in her tribe against her. And with her "attitude" that won't go over well with Rodger, Elisabeth and especially Alicia. And I think Jeff is talking about Jerri, so I see a total of seven votes against Jerri. She has no alliance and likely won't find one in Kucha. I say this because I can see Colby, Keith and Tina ratting on her to Kucha about what she has done and how. But, we get tossed on the 6-4 theory big time! And with no tribal council, no one officially was voted off. Just disqualified. I posed this issue of disqualification but I admit, I didn't think it as strong since I believed both the rules would be bent or even that Mike would return in time for immunity. MB had his hands tied on Day 18 and had to cancel the challenge. I don't see him changing the foundation of the game by having two immunity challenges. Mike is gone for good. The promos for shows about talking to the "sixth person voted off" is a misnomer. Granted, MB could call it a unamimous vote by default, but if I were a Kucha member I might object to this. (Do they know all the rules or not?) Still, I can see this issue being part of "outwit, outplay, outlast." And in reality, just how stupid was he? Blowing on the fire and not using something to fan it with? Prior to this we see him picking hot "chicken popcorn" out of the pan in the fire, embers burning his feet and hands, and yet he still screws up! I guess that's crazy Mike true and true! An accident waiting to happen.
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George Tirebiter 2982 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Howard Stern Show Guest"
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03-01-01, 11:57 PM (EST)
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3. "Scerri dodges a bullet" |
Even numbers or not, I can't really see the weaker side succeeding in voting off the strong members of the other side after the merger. . . Still, they did make a point of setting them up as fish in a barrel with the previews of next week's episode (esp. Jeff's whining), and since things are rarely what they are made to appear on Survivor, I'm leery of falling for such an obvious "clue."I am so bummed that Scerri is still here--and kinda irritated that they spent so much of the show elaborating on how intolerable she's become to her "chums" (does Amber even count as a contestant?). How can she NOT come up as THE target at next week's TC?! (Immunity? I doubt she's up to it.) As for Mike--it seemed overly ironic that he was the target of such disdain, but once he was a vulnerable has-been, they all blew kisses and became such a happy family. I'm afraid this whole thing will rally them into an ass-kicking bloc that'll be hard to beat (until they have to turn on each other)--even more than they have been, I mean. The lack of a TC tonight left me feeling it was an incomplete show; I was expecting twice the bang for my buck tonight, and didn't even get the satisfaction of seeing Psycho Skoop eaten by a croc, let alone Jerri's sorry arse crossing the Bridge of Sighs. Would I feel less dissatisfied with SII if--for ONCE--something turned out as expected? The suspense and surprise are undoubtedly what keep us tuning in, but I have to wonder if they couldn't give us something satisfying once in a while, to relieve the monotony. I don't think I could stand another complete asshole winning the pot (I seem to recall thinking Dicque would disappear every week--and every week he'd somehow luck out. . .). Satisfying? They could start by bringing us the head of Scerri, the Anarchist. (or is that "antichrist?")
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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-02-01, 02:01 AM (EST)
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10. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
I agree that Jeff is next. I think that there will be a 5-5 tie. Kucha will vote for the leader, Colby -- I'm taking this from the previews when Jeff talked about Colby walking up to Keith and started pointing out people right away. Alicia and Jeff both wanted Nick out because of his strength at one point, I can see them also wanting Colby out for his strength and likability. All of Ogakor will vote out Jeff because Jeff seems like a leader. (though I only go by what the show seems to portray, editing could make things seem different than what they really are). They won't know that Colby has no votes against him, everyone stays true to their votes the second time, and Jeff goes. I also think that Jeff will be out because of your Debb's friends theory. It seems like that would be the thread to follow. As for after that, I don't want to speculate yet. I need to see how the two tribes merge, and what Jerri does... The screen time on the show where she talks about wanting to shake things up after merger makes me think she could switch sides. It's interesting to note that she assumed that she would even make it to merger because at that point she didn't know that they all were going. Maybe she did have Colby or Tina in her pocket to oust Keith after all.
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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-02-01, 02:23 AM (EST)
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13. "RE: Not Tina" |
The only reason I thought of Tina was because of the way her and Amber were bonding... I was leaning more towards Colby, but here's the thing >> colby seems to like to let jerri think what she likes then he goes and does his own thing.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-02-01, 04:04 AM (EST)
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15. "Follow the link in post #2" |
...because that's what siebured plotted.
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MDSkinner 716 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Reality Show Commentator"
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03-02-01, 09:48 AM (EST)
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16. "RE: Follow the link in post #2" |
I will be interested to see which x's get added after the Michael interview. This definitely seems to have as much validity as any thing that I have seen so far, and it may help to lead us to the next one ousted(Alicia possibly), but I would say that now that the tribes are merging it will lose validity. Since the tribes merge, all of these people are guaranteed to spend at least a few days together.
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RASH 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-02-01, 10:02 AM (EST)
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17. "BLACK WIDOW" |
I THINK JERRI IS GOING TO GET TO SOME OF THE KUCHAS FIRST. I AM SURE SHE CAN GET IN GOOD WITH ELISABETH BY USING AMBER. THIS WOULD BRING RODGER INTO THE NEW ALLIANCE AND OF COURSE THE WIN ONE FOR MICHAEL THING WILL GET THE REST OF THE KUCHAS TO VOTE FOR EITHER COLBY OR KIETH DEPENDING ON WHICH ONE WINS IMMUNITY IF EITHER.
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RASH 19 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-02-01, 11:57 AM (EST)
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26. "RE: BLACK WIDOW" |
I AM NOT SAYING ELISABETH WILL NOT SEE JERRI FOR WHAT SHE IS BUT REMEMBER IT TOOK COLBY AN EPISODE OR TWO TO FIGURE HER OUT. I AM SURE ELISABETH WILL SEE THE LIGHT BUT IT MIGHT NOT HAPPEN RIGHT AWAY. AMBER TO ME IS THE WILD CARD IN ALL OF THIS. IF SHE BACKS JERRI AND COUNTERS WHAT COLBY, KIETH AND TINA TELL THE KUCHAS ABOUT JERRI THEN IT MIGHT CAUSE THEM TO DOUBT WHAT C,K&T SAY ABOUT HER. I AM NEW AT THIS SO BE GENTLE.
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colbysincharge 71 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-02-01, 03:56 PM (EST)
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34. "RE: BLACK WIDOW" |
Just for editing purposes, the black widow spinning her web footage is no longer being shown depicting Jerri-----ever since the ouster of her Mitchell. Now, can we please take it easy on Jerri?
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Lurking 156 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-03-01, 12:18 PM (EST)
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47. "RE: BLACK WIDOW" |
I can't take it easy as long as Jerri's still around.
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SurvivorBlows 15230 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-02-01, 10:11 AM (EST)
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18. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
LAST EDITED ON 03-02-01 AT 10:29 AM (EST)>OK, now I can feel doubly >stupid. We NOT ONLY >knew about the burning, but >someone (I don't remember whom >right now) brought up Debb >Eaton's chat this week. >Debb was asked who she >kept in touch with. >She answered Maralyn, Mitchell, Kimmi, >Michael and Jeff. How >was that for a clue? How's this for devil's advocate? ...she didn't say "Debb, Kel, Maralyn, Mitchell, Kimmi, Michael, and Jeff" did she? So just as Maralyn didn't wasn't the first booted, maybe Jeff isn't the 7th Also, maybe the reason they got listed in the order they did is that except for the last two, the other three were the last three who were voted out and it might be easier rattle off the names that way, with Jeff and/or Michael at the end possibly not meaning much (other than she had already scanned through the list of prior bootees in her head, than listed whoever else was left) Seriously, other than maybe Rodger, does anyone really see Alicia, Liz, or Nick wanting any part of maintaining a relationship with Debb? Jeff is probably the only other one she's friends with. Also, back to arguments THAT ARE IN YOUR FAVOR, we should not that after the 7th bootee, the others can't go on the long, open-ended trips around Austalia and the surrounding region since they have to be back at TC every 3rd night. ...so since we know Debb was doing some serious travelling during her 39 days of exile, it could be that after the first seven bootees, no one was able to travel with her and therefore not become close. But then again, we do know that Debb went to China for a few weeks at some point, so it could also be that she was already gone when the 7th bootee was booted.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-02-01, 11:21 AM (EST)
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21. "Reply" |
>How's this for devil's advocate? >...she didn't say "Debb, Kel, Maralyn, Mitchell, Kimmi, >Michael, and Jeff" did she? So just as Maralyn wasn't >the first booted, maybe Jeff isn't the 7th Not only didn't she mention Kel at all, she added Kimmi only as an afterthought. Actually, I think she mentioned Jeff first. >Seriously, other than maybe Rodger, does >anyone really see Alicia, Liz, or Nick wanting any part >of maintaining a relationship with Debb? Jeff is probably >the only other one she's friends with. True ... of course, this is the argument that I was making before last night about Michael going ... >Also, back to arguments THAT ARE IN YOUR FAVOR, we should >not that after the 7th bootee, the others can't go >on the long, open-ended trips around Austalia and the >surrounding region since they have to be back at TC every >3rd night. ...so since we know Debb was >doing some serious travelling during her 39 days of exile, >it could be that after the first seven bootees, no >one was able to travel with her and therefore not >become close. Yes, and that's the practical reason to believe that Jeff is next. In other words, this theory has a reason to be true -- Debb was clearly resentful about being booted so quickly and probably spent as little time back at the resort as she had to. >But then again, we do know that Debb went to China >for a few weeks at some point, so it could >also be that she was already gone when the 7th >bootee was booted. Also possible. Wish I knew her travel agent!
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DivaByTheSea 175 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Blistex Spokesperson"
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03-02-01, 12:35 PM (EST)
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27. "RE: Reply" |
>Not only didn't she mention Kel >at all, she added Kimmi >only as an afterthought. >Actually, I think she mentioned >Jeff first. Flashback to E1....Debb tried SO hard to get 'in' with everyone. She TRIED to play the game, but her personality just does not cut it in this environment....remember the whole deal with Jeff getting sick and how she told everyone that Jeff 'wanted' to go? She tried to make it out that they had become buds. I think that it is highly possibly, based on the personality and limited psychology of Debb that we have seen, that she would be SURE to mention Jeff in all of her talks about "friends" b/c of the whole TC vote. She embarassed herself, by thinking that she had become friends with Jeff--enough so to go around and tell everyone to vote him off. SO, I don't know how much credence I put in her "friends" statement. Just my thoughts! **** Remember, the mighty oak was once just a crazy little nut that held its ground. ****
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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-03-01, 01:48 AM (EST)
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42. "concerning Jeff and Kel" |
I remember Kel being on Rosie's show and saying that the Jeff he got to know was different than the way the show portrays him. (paraphrasing)... Could this back up the theory that Jeff is first to go? Granted, they could have gotten to know each other at the wrap party, but it could also mean that they got to know eachother at the ranch where all the booted people stay.
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ItzLisa 3350 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-02-01, 10:30 AM (EST)
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19. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
>but it's hard to believe that Alicia won't go right after Jeff. ***More than likely - if the Ogas stick together (for once!), they'll see that those two are a matched set that shouldn't be broken up.>But then life gets interesting. We KNOW where Jerri will finish in an Ogakor Alliance: just where Sean did in the Tagi Alliance, fifth. ***I dunno... I hate to disagree with ya, because you're usually far more on the ball than I am, but I just can't believe she'd last that long! I mean, okay, your theory on Jeff going next makes alot of sense, because he's shaping up to be almost as big of a pain in the ass as Jerri is, but I can't believe she's not next. I know they're in "everyone for themselves" mode, but right now there's enough people that the Ogakors could easily convince Kucha's like Jeff and Alicia to help them get rid of her. >SO she (and Amber) have to turn on her colleagues at some point. That would explain the "black widow" imagery, especially if she is going after Colby. ***Which is why I think she'll go next - The rest of the Ogakors aren't that dumb that they won't see it as a golden opportunity to get rid of her once and for all before she starts targeting her own. I'm guessing that she would prefer to be in an alliance with Elisabeth, if she has to pick a Kucha. ***But would Elisabeth want to be in an alliance with her? I don't think so, honestly. I think they're too opposite for Elisabeth to want anything to do with Jerri, or to be dumb enough to fall for a fake friendship. But in either E10 or E11, the black widow starts to pick off her own tribe. ***Still think she'll be gone before that - but you could have something here with your theory! I thought she'd be gone for sure last night, and look at how obviously wrong I was, ha ha!!! >How much credence should you give this theory? About as much as you give TV Guide when it tells us that a sixth member is "voted" out of the tribe... ***Weeeeelll, now, in all fairness, TV Guide's little descriptions are the exact same wording every week, just with the number ("fourth, fifth, sixth", etc.) changed. It's like an automatic "stamp" in the listings. Besides, even if their listing descriptions weren't just auto-pilot, they can't give too much away either. ************************************** What if the Hokey Pokey really IS what it's all about???
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MistyG 45 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beauty Pageant Celebrity Judge"
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03-02-01, 11:47 AM (EST)
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24. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
I have a hard time seeing Jerri get booted first. It's a definate possibility, but why would Ogakor want to vote out any of their own. Keith may not like Jerri at all (an under-statement.lol), but he had to have known that Ogakor can't be smaller in number against Kucha so early on. Anything could happen because really, the preview after the last show didn't show much. Kucha has a strong alliance now based more on friendship, which does make them strong. Ogakor,however, seems to be more manipulative and I think the people who hate eachother may stand together for at least two more votes just to ensure they have a fighting chance against Kucha.
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colbysincharge 71 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-02-01, 11:35 AM (EST)
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23. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
Debb, Maralyn, and Kimmi all listed Jeff as someone they stay in contact with. Kimmi even said that Jeff watched the previous episode (where she gets the boot), at her house holding her hand. And they even talked about giving the coloring book to Rosie. Now Jeff does not seem like an extremely friendly guy, to make friends with the whole cast. Nor did he seem outwardly friendly to Kimmi or Debb at kucha. Whereas he watched from the beach, and Mike's sincere friends who went into the water to help out, albeit slowly, Lis, Alicia, even Rodger. Perhaps, but not mentioned anywhere, Mitch and Jeff became good friends; which explains why they watched the Ep 1 together, albeit with jerri and Alicia So taking one show at a time, and Jeff having 2 votes already, he looks like next weeks castoff.
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aymelek 1220 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Politically Incorrect Guest"
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03-02-01, 01:43 PM (EST)
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30. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
Doesn't make sense though, that Debb keeps in touch with Jeff. After the merger, the booted members become the jury and aren't in contact with the pre-merger bootees. So even if Jeff goes first, he wouldn't be around Debb.
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colbysincharge 71 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-02-01, 02:25 PM (EST)
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31. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
>Doesn't make sense though, that Debb >keeps in touch with Jeff. >After the merger, the booted >members become the jury and >aren't in contact with the >pre-merger bootees. So even if >Jeff goes first, he wouldn't >be around Debb. after the merger the first bootee is not needed and goes with the first six booted. This leaves 9 left, final 2, and the 7 (odd number) jury. Therefore, debb, maralyn, and Kimmi all saying that they stay in touch with Jeff is significant. They still have 3 weeks together before they see the rest of the tribe. Finally Kel said that Jerri never wrote or e-mailed him, to apologize. What about an in-person apology? Because they never saw each other again? Mitch's hatred for Keith? Because Keith goes far and Mitch thinks that it should have been him? Or because Jerri hates him so Mitch has to?
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samiam 5976 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-02-01, 11:49 AM (EST)
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25. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
I have a couple of thoughts on this (although my head still hurts from boxing my ears last night as the show progressed - AUGH! So close and yet...). First, MB says that the second Survivor contestants made the same mistakes as the first. What mistakes did the first make? For one, the Pagongs refused to make an alliance. If they had done so, they could have broken up the Tagi alliance in the first TC post-merge...but they lost their chance. I think Ogakor will do the same thing; I seriously doubt they can stick together. We know Jerri for one is assuming she can "shake things up" at Kucha after the merge, and probably Colby is, too. They don't look like a tribe trying to unite, they look like a group of people each of whom is thinking, "Every man for himself." We are assuming a 5-5 tie at TC, but it doesn't have to be. If Jerri tries to ingratiate herself into the Kuchas they could certainly look at it as an opportunity to pounce on prey. They are certainly not above lying. What if she *thinks* she's gained their confidence, and they tell her they're voting Keith off (which I don't think she's averse to, and it wouldn't be hard to pick up on *that* vibe). However, they are actually voting for Colby (or any other Ogie, for that matter); so 5 votes Colby, 1 vote Keith, and then the Ogies are effectively screwed. If Jerri sees that she's been had, and tries to re-form an Ogie alliance, they are still down 5-4. So she tries a "black widow" move and winds up the victim of her own scheming. Now would that be a Shakespearean storyline, or what? Now, MB has also told us that alliances really didn't figure much in this show...so is he lying (*gasp* NO! Not him!), or does the Kucha alliance that appears so strong now disappear in ruins by the end of the next episode? I think anybody who doesn't think I'm smart enough to handle the job is underestimating. -- George W. Bush
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jtmorgan61 91 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-03-01, 02:35 AM (EST)
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44. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
LAST EDITED ON 03-03-01 AT 02:44 AM (EST)LAST EDITED ON 03-03-01 AT 02:36 AM (EST) I totally agree with you on the "mistakes" comment - that is, Ogakor is getting Pagonged because they're too dumb/hate-filled to realize that no one in Kucha is peeling off. Certainly all the Ogies seemed very focused on themselves and getting into Kucha alliances. I just don't see that happening for them like they think it will. So, for the alliances comment - I would suggest that Kucha's first few votes after the merge aren't built out of a committed alliance, but based on Michael's injury. Still, if it got them all to final 5 I think most would consider it an alliance (MB twisting definitions? Never!) Here's an idea to chew on as far as the no-alliance idea, though: imagine Kucha sticks together while Ogakor does the pagong schtick, and we get down to 2 or 3 ogies and 5 kucha. at that point, people in Kucha in a precarious position (j+A, who look like an isolated 2 person subgroup right now, perhaps) are going to start looking around and realizing that if they don't want to finish 4th and 5th, they need those remaining ogies to start voting off Kucha. And Mike's been gone for a week, give or take, enough time for them to begin looking at this thing like a game again... so then Kucha gets busted up. Whadya think? Edited to add more food for thought: We have Debb's comments about Jeff, but we also have Maralyn saying she didn't meet Jeff until the plane ride home, although she really liked him.
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weltek 16936 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-02-01, 12:49 PM (EST)
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28. "Colby thought" |
Some have thought that Colby will be a target and go right away. Kucha and Ogakor dynamics aside, Colby is one of the few people who seems to really be concentrating on how the game works and is thinking ahead. Colby probably knows he will be a target because of his strength and will over to Kucha's side right away. Then he'll just have to work at an alliance with some of the Kucha's to last after the rest of Ogakor takes a hike. Just a thought to throw out there. All clues seem to point to Jeff going next week, but I'm not buying it quite yet, so I'm throwing some other ideas out. I didn't think it was worth starting a new thread, so I put it here.
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bondt007 3413 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Car Show Celebrity"
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03-02-01, 01:30 PM (EST)
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29. "RE: Colby thought" |
I understand the thought regarding Jeff/ Deb. But, are we sure Colby, out of pure disgust, doesn't get with Rodg or someone to pull the trigger on Jerri? I'm not being wishful here, but he will know he is a threat, so why not align with the strong Kucha 5, and maybe even bring Tina or Keith along, and bounce Jerri. Colby seems SO frustrated with them, and losing, and all... that I can see it happening.
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Dalton 1271 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Beef Jerky Spokesperson"
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03-02-01, 06:54 PM (EST)
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37. "RE: Colby thought" |
I think you all are very right about Colby already planning post-merger strategy for himself alone. He is the only one (except Mike) that faces the camera and says he is there to WIN. In E6 it seemed clear, poor ole Colby was cursing the day MB stuck him with this bunch of Oga-whore LOSERS. He is so ready to allign himself with those he sees as "winners" like himself that there is NO room for emotion. (Speaking OT: Colby in control of his emotions...after losing the Reward, hurling that bucket of water in Jerri's face was sheer rage and frustration!!!) Colby's idea now is first win immunity for himself...then convince some Kucha threesome that he and Keith are with them. Colby will keep Keith as long as possible and Colby will sacrifice Jerri's head on a silver platter first chance he gets. My only real plea to MB is don't kick Jerri off before we get to see her and Alicia get into a B.itch-slappin', hair- pullin' catfight with Jeff providing the "color commentary". PS. Add my congrats to Krautboy for his brilliant E6 pick.
D.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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03-03-01, 10:33 PM (EST)
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58. "RE: Colby thought" |
Just ditching his team at this point would almost guarantee Colby 6th place, pending immunity. He made the frustrated comments ~before~ his team got into the merger fully intact and if he's really playing the game, he'll know to stick with them for awhile longer.
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Lisapooh 12664 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-02-01, 02:46 PM (EST)
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32. "Let's be careful" |
We seem to jump on these "theories" and run with them and I think it's a detriment.I don't see how we can be so sure Jeff is going based solely on the exit interview of an early bootee. We find a possible clue or pattern that may hold true and we're already speculating about three episodes down the road. I'm not saying Jeff isn't going to go, I'm saying let's spend a little more time exploring other possibilities before we start debating who goes after him. Unless Keith wins immunity, Kucha is safe in the next episode. I realize that this happens only if Kucha finds out the vote totals for Ogakor. However, since the person in jeopardy is Keith and since Jerri has already stated that she wants to suck up to Kucha, I wouldn't be surprised if she told them about Keith's three previous votes. She is short-sided and vindictive enough to do that. She's also over-confident. Jerri expects to be able to win Kucha over and be safe. She could view this as her best opportunity to screw over Keith and to save herself. I don't think Kucha would take her in but I think Jeff and Alicia would listen while she sells out her tribe Kucha seems very cohesive right now - I don't see anyone there talking about their vote totals with the people from Ogakor. How does Ogakor find out Jeff is vulnerable? And I'm not ready to concede Jeff as being the most obvious choice to target. I still say Nick would be a more obvious threat to them - athletic, Harvard Law student - he might stand out as more of a 2-pronged (intellectual/athletic) threat to Ogakor at first glance. They don't know what the dynamics are. They don't know ANYTHING about Kucha other than what Kucha tells them - and that's gonna be squat. Ogakor however has Jerri - and she is looking for an alliance with Kucha and she hates Keith. I don't think we can dismiss that out of hand just yet. And to go off on another tangent - say Keith does win immunuty. Jeff and Jerri each have two votes. If it came right down to it, do you think everyone in Ogakor would hang in with Jerri on a rev-ote? I don't. But I think Kucha would stay with Jeff. I'm not prepared to say anyone is going or staying yet. I always make up my mind early and then try to make the pieces fit my decision. And I'm usually WRONG. Let's keep an open mind this week and see what else turns up.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-02-01, 04:05 PM (EST)
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35. "Fair enough *n/m*" |
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Mitrelleum 257 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Network TV Show Guest Star"
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03-02-01, 10:15 PM (EST)
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39. "Only 1 Jeff vote revealed" |
Hi! I'm new, and I just wanted to know if anyone noticed in E5, that Probst did not reveal Kimmi's vote for Jeff. This means that Kucha has no idea who Kimmi voted for, or that Jeff has two votes against him. I don't know if this means anything, and if they DID show her vote and somehow I missed it, I apologize for all the crack I smoked last Thursday evening.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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03-03-01, 10:20 PM (EST)
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57. "RE: Let's be careful" |
Jerri and Colby were only talking about getting into Kucha when it was a "sure thing" that the merger would be 6-4. As it is now, unless they're totally braindead, they must realize (especially after the first series) that it's either vote together or be destroyed. I don't care how much everyone hates Jerri, they have no other choice....at least for the first council.
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HAN32 1 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-02-01, 04:06 PM (EST)
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36. "Rodger as Target?" |
While I understand the arguments being made for Jeff as the target based on Debb's comments and the strength issue, I think logic suggests another possibility (assuming the tie-breaker system holds through the merger):Ogakor knows the tiebreaker system because they were forced to use it. With a 5-5 merge, they would know that a 5-5 vote at TC would be likelly (assuming they get their act together to vote as a unit). Wouldn't it be logical for them to vote for the person they would perceive has the most votes against him or her? And wouldn't that person most likely be Rodger (because he was weakest in challenges)? After winning the tiebreaker this week (they would think), they could get around to taking out the strong later. However, because Rodger has no votes against him, they would be mistaken, leaving the opportunity for a Jerri or Keith ouster or a deadlock. There's obviously a couple of assumption in place here, but no more than some other posts. So, as a first time poster, fire away.
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AyatollahKhomeini 2008 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Roller Coaster Inaugurator"
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03-02-01, 07:56 PM (EST)
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38. "Uncertainty" |
Glad to have you with us, HAN32. We are simply surrounded by uncertainty with regard to this episode. We know the logical result of the vote: a 5-5 tie. We know that Jeff is the only one of Debb's friends still on the show. Beyond that, we know virtually nothing and we need data! Your guess is as good as mine ... and that's all my theory is, a guess!
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-03-01, 05:27 PM (EST)
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51. "RE: Uncertainty" |
Michael was out of the hospital for awhile before he returned home. He travelled and did some sightseeing and other things at the expense of MB & company. Also Kel has mentioned that Mike is one of his friends from the show.
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Kokoro 3899 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Thong Contest Judge"
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03-03-01, 10:14 PM (EST)
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56. "RE: Rodger as Target?" |
Why are we assuming that Kucha doesn't know about the tie breaker? When Ogakor was forced to use it Jeff said: "and AS YOU KNOW in the rules of Survivor yadda yadda yadda..." and none of them had that "What the **** are you talking about?" look soooo it can also be assumed that this is a solid rule and they were all briefed beforehand.
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bdmagee 14 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-02-01, 11:17 PM (EST)
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40. "Mike?" |
Do we know for certain how long Mike spent in the hospital? We know 2 weeks for sure from his interview on CBS. But he only says that Ros spent two seeks at my side. Also we know that he arrived a day earlier than the rest of the survivors and he had his own private jet. Knowing the way he is from the show and his interviews Im sure he would have invited everybody to share the plane with him.
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Jewels 15 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-03-01, 02:05 AM (EST)
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43. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
Mike was in the hospital for at least 2 weeks as he said on the early show. The hospital he stayed in was also 3 hours away from the resort the booted survivors stayed in. Also maybe Debbs comment about Jeff being fun was talking about Jeff Probst
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BIGsurvivor 23 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Got Milk? Spokesperson"
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03-03-01, 02:41 AM (EST)
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45. "jeff and colby" |
someone had mentioned that colby is the only one playing the game on ogakor. he's right, colby is looking out for numero uno and will be able to get him and keith into some alliance most likely. who is playing the game best on kucha, though? as ##### Hatch pointed out on the round table this morning, its definately Jeff.. rodge and liz are too sweet, and nick is still clueless, imho. i think jeff will ride kucha (win one for gipper) to get several off ogakor, but look for some jeff/alicia/colby/keith thing to form, if the last two last very long
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Siebured 83 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Hollywood Squares Square"
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03-03-01, 08:27 AM (EST)
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46. "Debb & Jeff" |
What Debb actually said was, "I had alot of fun with Jeff"If we consider that the E7 bootee is the last one to have complete freedom to roam OZ, then this certainly points to Jeff. I don't know if the jury members are sequestered, but we do know they have to return every 3 days, so I'm sure their recreational options are limited. I meant to update that little grid thingy, but after Mitchell, the booted contestants are giving very little info during their interviews. Maybe that fact in itself should tell us something.
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stephon_marbury 2 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "American Cancer Society Spokesperson"
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03-03-01, 03:58 PM (EST)
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49. "RE: Debb's friends..." |
The one thing I have noticed, is how it seems more people are interested in Debb's comments, then the fact that MB never shows us something he doesnt intend to use as a storyline down the road.Example- THe Jeff/Alicia Alliance- when everyone was pointing at Alicia, some people mentioned how MB wouldnt have shown us the alliance, then just booted her the next week. This brings me to the clip of Keith saying "I dont care about the million dollars, I just want to make sure she doesnt win it" (not exact quote- she being Jerri) With this being known, I think the voting will end up being 5-4-1. The Ogawhores will vote probably for Jeff, or Nick (Nick could be seen as the leader, being he lead the blind leading the blind game) with Keith voting for Jerri, and then the Kuchas voting for Keith, who, other than Colby, is the strong Ogawhore member. Then Keith's comments come back to get him. Just an idea- comments would be nice.
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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"
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03-03-01, 05:37 PM (EST)
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52. "RE: Keith's goal" |
I agree about Keith going to Kucha members about voting against Jerri. Keith would want to get into the Kucha food supply. They have all those spices and soup mixes. It would be a great ice-breaker to mention that Jerri insults his cooking, etc. Plus Mike did say that he didn't get close to Keith but heard good things about him from his tribe. Keith would be seen as nice if he went to their side against one of his own - Jerri.
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