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"Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings DAW Level: "Playboy Centerfold"	02-24-11, 03:30 PM (EST)
"Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"
LAST EDITED ON 02-24-11 AT 03:47 PM (EST) Posted by Mayan Sun.... "Keep Hope Alive" Could be something that Matt says when he beats Francesca at Redemption Island... Could be something that Kristina or Phillip say, when they are NOT sent packing. Could be something Andrea says in her angst. Could be something that Boston Rob says. ETA: Actually, I found this at Survivor Sucks as well....posted by Kona: Note what his new tatoo says....Keep Hope Alive.
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-11, 04:30 PM (EST)

1. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

The likely misdirection from the previews shows the Zapatera Six aligned against Russell, Krista and Stephanie. The editing paints a target on Russell, so what is it that will "Keep Hope Alive"? Apparently a plan to "blindside" someone outside of Russell's alliance.
Is this an example of "Strategies Revealed Do Not Succeed"?
Will Stephanie actually be sacrificed so Russell can "Keep Hope Alive"?

Krautboy

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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-11, 05:12 PM (EST)

2. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

Thanks to Mayan Sun:
02.24.2011 WEIGHING RISK OVER REWARD, ONE TRIBE CONTEMPLATES DOING THE UNTHINKABLE HOPING TO BENEFIT IN THE LONG RUN, ON "SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND," WEDNESDAY, MARCH 2
"Keep Hope Alive" - One tribe considers a risky move, while on Redemption Island it's do or die as Matt and Francesca face off in the first duel to see who earns the right to stay in the game and who exits for good, on SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND, Wednesday, March 2 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT)

The "Unthinkable" "risky move" is probably one of the tribes throwing a challenge. If that's the case it would appear to be the Zapatera Six throwing the challenge in an attempt to get rid of Russell...but apparently Russell and Stepahnie have a plan to "Keep Hope Alive"
Note: The words ..."Contemplates"... and ..."considers"...leaves the door open for them to decide against it in the end.

Krautboy

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vince3 17341 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-11, 05:59 PM (EST)

3. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

but even if they reconsider and play it straight, there's always a chance they can lose the challenge anyways...

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-11, 06:51 PM (EST)

4. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

LAST EDITED ON 02-24-11 AT 07:44 PM (EST)
Yes, I agree, KB. weighing risk over reward definitely made me think that it sounds like they are going to be throwing the challenge, at least discussing it. If RussHell and company have a plan to keep hope alive, then odds are that one way or the other, they will most likely be going to TC...
Since the two clues are concerning the Zaps and RI, are we to ASSume that first clue leads to the boot?

ETA: I wanted to bring the transcript from the first promo over here...
Jeff Probst: Next time on Survivor...
Andrea : I'm so pissed about what they did.
Probst: Rob finds out that hell hath no fury like Andrea scorned.
Rob : She'll cut my throat.
Probst: And the Zapatera tribe finds out what happens when you cross Russell.
Russell : I'm dealing with a bunch of bitches.
Stephanie : This is going to be the biggest BLINDSIDE, EVER!
Matt : I've been an emotional roller coaster. Sometimes I feel like I just want to go home.
Francesca : Matt?
Matt: And other times I just think Rob set me up to have this greatest comeback in Survivor history.
Francesca: I'm shocked.
Matt: I just have to stay strong and the Lord will be with me.
As Krautboy noted above:
the likely misdirection from the previews shows the Zapatera Six aligned against Russell, Krista and Stephanie. The editing paints a target on Russell, so what is it that will "Keep Hope Alive"? Apparently a plan to "blindside" someone outside of Russell's alliance.
How could the RussHell three pull off a blindside when there are 6 on the other side? By telling the six that they have found the idol perhaps, forcing the 6 to split the vote, ending in a three way tie, more than likely between Rooster, Stephanie, and RussHell...if Rooster doesn't tell them he has the idol and he doesn't play the idol, this could happen and land him out of the tribe. Or, maybe he doesn't tell them, and there is still a 3 way split, and Rooster plays the idol, there would then be a 2 way tie between RussHell and more than likely Stephanie. My bet would be on RussHell to LOSE if there is a re-vote, and for RussHell to win if there is a fire-starting challenge.
If Rooster shares the news of the idol, then RussHell, imo, would be walking the walk. I sure would be tickled to see that happen, and why couldn't it? But, RussHell is all over the vidcaps, and with the title of the episode, perhaps he is the misdirection, and Stephanie, or even Rooster could go....

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-11, 10:36 PM (EST)

9. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

It seems to me that Matt has a much stronger edit for continuing on in the game than Francesca. His Episode 1 confessional, plus this:
Matt : I've been an emotional roller coaster. Sometimes I feel like I just want to go home.
Francesca : Matt?
Matt: And other times I just think Rob set me up to have this greatest comeback in Survivor history.
Francesca: I'm shocked.
Matt: I just have to stay strong and the Lord will be with me.
Matt is shown as Resigned to his fate on one hand, and ready to resurrect on the other. That certainly goes with the Jesus edit he got in Ep. 1. Wouldn't it be a bit much if all that was to kiss him goodbye as the first player out of the game?
Francesca's role in the promo is purely reactive to Matt. He is the center.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-24-11, 07:27 PM (EST)

5. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

LAST EDITED ON 02-24-11 AT 07:42 PM (EST)
Props to Kona for noticing the tatt. I try not to look closely at Russell and I tend to ignore tattoos.
Throwing a challenge has been done enough times that it is "risky" but not "unthinkable."
My candidate for UNTHINKABLE is someone voluntarily leaves the game and banks on Redemption for a shot at the mil. It would take a very challenge confident player to offer to do that. It has never been done, and they don't even know when the person gets to re-enter the game. Still, gambling on RI works very well with "benefit in the long run."
I would guess that this is prompted by their seeing Matt duel Francesca. Having someone like Matt at RI makes the odds poor for incoming Zaps if the Zaps continue to vote off the weak.
Which brings me to part 2 of why this is unthinkable. They will need to vote off someone strong and that substantially weakens their team.
Granted they have Mike, Steve, Rooster, and Russell who are all strong, with David's smarts -- against primarily Grant and Rob when it comes to strength. That is why they can consider this at all.
I wonder if Mike would step up.
It is possible that Russell could pretend to step up, but ... the result of the bluff would be that he'd get a good six votes and would be on his way to RI.
If Rooster steps up, that's not too bright. He has no experience with Survivor puzzles, and isn't the stuff that an "all-around" Survivor challenge ho is made of.
btw, I find it suspicious that Russell has a new tatt saying "Keep Hope Alive" if he didn't know about the redemption twist.

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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-11, 01:39 AM (EST)

6. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

The only way RI could factor into a challenge-throwing decision this early would probably if a tribe had somebody they seriously wanted not only to get rid of, but to make sure didn't last long enough on RI to come back as a juror and/or a player. Then they'd vote that person off when a known tough physical player was on RI to maximize the chances of their votee's removal. But to send a strong player there to get rid of the person already there when there are probably too many episodes left for anybody to last would seem foolish at this point. If somebody considers a challenge throw, I think they'll decide in the end not to.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-11, 11:11 AM (EST)

7. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

We have to put ourselves in their shoes.
The players knew nothing about Redemption Island until they were standing on the mats on Day 1. They don't know when players will return from RI, or how many, as was emphasized in Tribal #2. Great moment for Jiffy, he was happy "yes yes yes" in his head knowing that stuff was broadcast gold. Or rather exactly the hype he was hoping for.
For all that the players know RI is a short term twist for this edition of the game, or something like the Monopoly rule stay in Jail for three turns and you're back out regulates RI. They just don't know.
Consequently, any strategies involving RI may have a short window of opportunity.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-26-11, 07:09 PM (EST)

8. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

Those are good points, dabo. Matt said he may be about to make the biggest comeback in Survivor history. He's probably not envisioning winning duels all the way to Final five. (Also I guess he never watched Pearl Islands.)
The challenge is Water Wheel from last season, at least the first component is same as last season, which may have been pulled out of the challenge box for the girl-power on Ometepe. So throwing may not be necessary.
Of course it would be real easy for Steph and Krista to miss with their spits.

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Woogie 135 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-11, 04:31 AM (EST)

10. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

I would guess that this is prompted by their seeing Matt duel Francesca. Having someone like Matt at RI makes the odds poor for incoming Zaps if the Zaps continue to vote off the weak.
Well, my disgree on this part is that why would they want someone they vote off to make the odd of coming back?
If they were sure that Matt was in the main alliance and voted out because of HII they might consider that but they will never know and it's not true either. If I was one of the Z6 and wants to vote out one of the "Russell three", i don't want them to come back for good.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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02-27-11, 11:25 PM (EST)

11. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

I've given up on this interpretation. It seems to be too radical a plan. Maybe someone would do if there were more seasons of this twist.
In answer to your question, they would only want someone they vote off to come back if that person was someone they never wanted to vote off originally. The entire vote would be strategy.
With a divided tribe like Zapatera, it's not too likely they could agree on such a strategy.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-11, 07:28 AM (EST)

12. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

LAST EDITED ON 02-28-11 AT 09:23 AM (EST)
My candidate for UNTHINKABLE is someone voluntarily leaves the game and banks on Redemption for a shot at the mil. It would take a very challenge confident player to offer to do that. It has never been done, and they don't even know when the person gets to re-enter the game. Still, gambling on RI works very well with "benefit in the long run."
While I really can't see anyone volunteering to leave the game to make it to RI with the hopes of being returned...I mean why leave the game to get back in the game? Regardless, I would like to consider all possibilities. With the numbers dwindling in Ometepe, I think it highly unlikely that this would happen there. Steve is the one that witnesses the challenge, so he could be a candidate. Who else would consider even volunteering for something like this?
Which brings me to part 2 of why this is unthinkable. They will need to vote off someone strong and that substantially weakens their team.
Don't forget Julie, she is strong...
But, here's my take....SO far!

02.24.2011 WEIGHING RISK OVER REWARD, ONE TRIBE CONTEMPLATES DOING THE UNTHINKABLE HOPING TO BENEFIT IN THE LONG RUN, ON "SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND," WEDNESDAY, MARCH 2
"Keep Hope Alive" - One tribe considers a risky move, while on Redemption Island it's do or die as Matt and Francesca face off in the first duel to see who earns the right to stay in the game and who exits for good, on SURVIVOR: REDEMPTION ISLAND, Wednesday, March 2 (8:00-9:00 PM ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.
The wording, "weighing risk over reward", is what makes me feel that it's about throwing the challenge. Yes, is it unthinkable, if it's been done many times in the past? Yes, considering that CBS loves their hype. The words "contemplates" and "considers" leaves room for doubt....they could or could not end up taking the risk and doing the unthinkable. Another thing to ask, are "doing the unthinkable" and "the risky move" talking about the same thing?
With no more pics of the challenge, there is no definitive evidence that Ometepe does not go to TC. And, we do have a valid candidate/decoy at Ometepe...Andrea, the woman scorned. So, I don't want to dismiss them completely. However, with the time stamps that Kona noted, if I were a betting woman, I'd hedge my bets on Team Z going to TC.
So, if I am commiting to a Zap boot, who is at risk? Well, numero uno on the list: RussHell. How far will Russell's tribe go to oust him? He sits in the tent with his concubines and does nothing, he thinks he runs the show and he don't. He's the most "untrustworthy", and they've got to get him out as soon as possible. The Zaps are going to find out what happens when you cross RussHell, he's dealing with a bunch of bitches, and can he turn the tables and pull off the biggest surprise power play yet?
To me, if they are going to find out what happens when they cross RussHell, then RussHell is not going home....now, how to arrive at RussHell staying. It all depends on what Rooster does. So, WWRD? If he shares with the others that he has the idol then it would be 6 votes RussHell, more than likely. So, for there to be any kind of drama at all, Rooster must keep his mouth shut. We also don't know if RussHell will tell the others that they have the idol. For Stephanie to utter, "this will be the biggest blindside ever", than I think they must tell the Zap 6 that they have the idol.
So, if Rooster tells the 6 that he has the idol then 6 votes go to RussHell and he's toast. Or, he doesn't tell them and they split their vote, Stephanie/RussHell. So that could lead to a 3 way tie. But, what if someone is not on board with the Zap 6?
This is a definite possibility because of the above picture tells us it could happen. Is it misdirection or no? Maybe Julie will vote for Rooster, when she's supposed to vote for RussHell. If Rooster plays the idol, than it will be 3 votes, Stephanie, and 2 votes RussHell, Stephanie is screwed. This would be IRONIC, because she's the one in the commercial saying, "This will be the biggest blindside, ever!"
So, here is the list of boot candidates: Andrea, RussHell, Rooster, Stephanie
I'm leaning toward a Stephanie or Rooster boot. I include Rooster in there, because as he's told us, he's a dumb a$$.

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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-11, 11:03 AM (EST)

13. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

LAST EDITED ON 02-28-11 AT 11:05 AM (EST)
I think you could be right on that one, FloPo. It's a great scenario for how things could play out. However, I want to look at this quote a little bit more because I think it's possible Russell is the one who gets sent to RI:
"Probst: And the Zapatera tribe finds out what happens when you cross Russell."
I agree that Zap is considering throwing the challenge as the unthinkable idea. And they may even do it which is why he thinks the tribe has crossed him. But finding out what happens when you cross Russell doesn't necessarily mean he survives the vote. He can cause a lot of havoc around camp even if he does ultimately get voted out. He's done it before with burning socks and what not.
Stephanie and Russell talking about the biggest blindside stinks of misdirection to me. Their plan isn't going to work.
As for the picture of Julie and Russell shaking hand, Julie mentions in her bio that she hates "bullies." I have a hard time believing she'll hook up with Russell over Mike, the all American hero. She also mentions in her bio that her "Inspiration in Life" are "All of the U.S. Soldiers that are away from their families defending our country and our freedom."
To me, I think the simplest answer is Russell gets voted out. And the Survivor universe cheers.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-11, 11:19 AM (EST)

14. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

I totally get your logic, Corvis. I can not, at this point, discount RussHell at all. As I have stated in the promo thread, that my first thought on hearing the preview promo was that RussHell was going to RI as the first boot of the Zap tribe....
The basic premise of the promo is a huge clash between RussHell and the Zap tribe. It's been building from day 1. He is either the misdirection, or NOT. And, at this point, it's sketchy because we don't know what Rooster will do, keep the idol to himself, play the idol, tell everyone he has it, etc, etc. But, Rooster told us in the last episode that "this old boy knows how to play this game too...". If he really knows how to play this game, than RussHell is toast.

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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-11, 04:35 PM (EST)

16. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

Probst: And the Zapatera tribe finds out what happens when you cross Russell."
Just playing around with every possible scenario. What if RussHell gets wind that Rooster has the idol. What if RussHell indeed has another minion that we don't know about, the ole hidden alliance. Rooster confides to Russell's hidden alliance mate, and not to the others. Maybe this secret alliance mate sees the idol on Rooster, who knows, but some way finds out he has it. Russhell's group sends 4 votes to someone other than Rooster, Rooster plays the idol, the Zap 6 split their votes, so the one that RussHell and company target gets the boot. It wouldn't be Stephanie, it wouldn't be Rooster...

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Corvis 3130 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-11, 05:43 PM (EST)

17. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

It's possible, but who is that other person that Russell has in his alliance?
Ralph - obviously not.
Steve - He was pretty negative about Russell in one of the eps.
Julie - I already wrote about her above.
Mike - He has already made many comments about how Russell sucks.
Sarita - weakest according to Russell - wouldn't ally with her - and she's the one who told her alliance mates about him having the clue.
David - possible, I suppose, since he's said so little, it's hard to see where he is on things.
And all of this assumes that Rooster doesn't tell anyone he has the idol even though they're planning on splitting the votes. It seems like whenever anyone gets an idol, they use it as a way to gain the trust of at least one other person.
Hmm. Maybe Julie tells Russell she's with him and that's why Steph and Russell think they have a blindside coming, but she double crosses them?

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SquidProQuo 2526 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-11, 01:37 AM (EST)

19. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

Julie's a possibility to go to the dark side with Russell, but I've also been wondering about David. As you mentioned, we really haven't heard much from him so far, so it's hard to say where he really stands, but there are a few misc. things that make me go hmmm:
- In the Insider Clips, Rooster mentions that he came across Russell and the girls with David. Also in the Insider Clips, there's a weird clip of David and Stephanie working on the shelter together. So I'm just wondering if they're chummy? Or is David just staying close to the enemy?
- In the preseason assessment, Jeff mentioned that David never asks if a client is a guilty and that says a lot about his game play. At the time, it made me wonder if he'd be the type to play both sides and/or ally with Russell.
- Can't imagine David wanting to be in a long term alliance with the Alpha Males (Mike, Steve and Rooster).
- David's body language in the Alliance of Six vidcaps doesn't seem like he's all-in.

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KObrien_fan 8360 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-11, 01:15 AM (EST)

18. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

LAST EDITED ON 03-01-11 AT 01:17 AM (EST)
btw, I find it suspicious that Russell has a new tatt saying "Keep Hope Alive" if he didn't know about the redemption twist.
OFG, Russell used that line at TC in the past, that is why he got the tattoo. So SeeBS is clearly giving the title as a nod to Russell for something going on this episode.
Edited to add, I think he used the line in both of his previous seasons.

I'm not sure who came first hosting games, you or Tribe, but you are both nefarious! - CTGirl

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-11, 01:58 AM (EST)

20. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

On the other hand, they caught him in their net and now he's doing what he's told. "Russ, we want you to get a new tatt that says 'Keep Hope Alive.'" Do we even know it is a real tatt?

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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03-01-11, 02:11 AM (EST)

21. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

Thanks KO, and long time no see!
I didn't specifically remember Russell saying that, needed your reminder. I remember in general how Russell clung to hope.
Even though it was his saying, Russell could have learned of the RI twist and decided this is the perfect saying to use for a season where player's can come back.
I think this episode will be about Russell trying to beat the odds and the numbers, without an idol. Unless Woogie's theory is right that he could steal Ralph's idol that is hidden. Maybe if it's not in someone's pocket or bag it really is up for grabs.
"Sometimes it's not enough to know what things mean, sometimes you have to know what things don't mean." — Bob Dylan

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suzzee 5961 desperate attention whore postings
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02-28-11, 12:25 PM (EST)

15. "RE: Ep 3, "Keep Hope Alive", Title and Misdirection Thread"

If the Redemption duel is before the immunity challenge they'll know who wins and what kind of challenge strength the winner has.
Throwing the challenge assures they go to TC and can vote someone they know can win a duel, at least once. On the other hand someone decides to go lone wolf, blow the challenge and then volunteers to throw themselves on the sword. Apparently to others. If they think Redemption could be considered a safe zone and that person thinks they may stand a better chance one on one then with their tribe things might be interesting.
Matt may be the one that loses the duel leaving a weaker Francesca and putting thoughts into Zapatera.

agman makes me hot

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