So here we go. D confessionals are ones about tribal dynamics, T confessionals are ones about storytelling. Episode 1 has a pretty even mix of Ts and Ds. Episode 2 is full of Ds as it was all about strategy. Not much character or story development there outside of the game play.

Rob – 1D + 1T/11D = 1T/12D
Francesca – 2T/4D + 1T/1D = 3T/5D
Kristina – 1T/5D +2D = 1T/7D
Phillip – 2T/2D + 2T = 4T/2D
Matt – 2T + 1D = 2T/1D
Andrea – 1T + 2D = 1T/2D
Natalie – 1T + 1T = 2T
Ashley – 1T + 0 = 1T
Grant – 0 + 1T = 1T

Russell – 3T + 1T/4D = 4T/4D
Ralph – 2T + 2T/1D = 4T/1D
Mike – 2T/1D + 1D = 2T/2D
Stephanie – 2T/1D + 0 = 2T/1D
David – 1D + 0 = 1D
Sarita – 0 + 0
Julie – 0 + 0
Krista – 0 + 0
Steve – 0 + 0

The biggest deal is how many people don't have any confessionals yet. Sarita, Julie, Krista and Steve have all been completely ignored. I can't imagine any of them winning just as Yve, Benry and Kelly P. didn't win when they started out with zero confessionals in the first two eps of last season. (And actually Benry and Kelly P last four eps without confessionals - maybe longer.) Only Benry went far last season, so I wouldn't be surprised to see at least half of the zero group to be gone early.

In the past, Survivors who got a lot of Ds went home sooner than those who got a lot of Ts. However, in the last few years, I don't think that's been the case as often. I think people with a lot of Ds can last a long time. Still getting Ts does suggest longevity as the narrators and the journey players get these types of confessionals. It's hard to make any predictions after only 2 eps, but Phillip and Natalie look good on Ometepe. And over at Zappy, Ralph looks good. Of course with Redemption Island, everything is thrown out of whack. A person who gets a lot of Ts can get voted out and last a long time at RI. Particularly if someone is on a personal journey.

Speaking of Redemption Island, I think Matt will outlast Francesca just looking at confessionals. Matt had a confessional about his faith being everything to him. Contrast that with Francesca's confessional about being happy to just be on Survivor. Then Francesca's confessionals are all about the conflict that got her booted. Even after she got to RI, she's still talking about Phillip. Matt, on the other hand, is talking about Rob - how great it is to have him and how impressive he is with how he knows what people want to hear. I would be really surprised if Matt didn't survive RI long enough to see Rob again.

I am surprised we're not hearing more from Dave. The only thing he has said so far is the Russell is dangerous and wants the blood on his hands. While he recognizes how dangerous Russell is, he also has to realize that someone who is willing to get the blood on their hands is a good person to hide behind. I think if we start seeing Dave get a bunch of confessionals in the next few eps, watch him to go far.

Three people got important opening series confessionals: Matt, Ralph, and Mike. One of them is going far. I would pick Mike.

It's hard to say much more after only 2 episodes.