I originally thought it would be a close vote between Chase and Jud, especially if Chase was the one who cried about his dad at Final TC. But now that we know Jud's the one who cries -- plus everyone's cheering on his immunity run -- I think it's a slam dunk for Fabs. And I don't think being closely allied with Nay (and getting a "free pass" handed to him from a quitter) is going to win Chase any brownie points with the jury. Unless he really starts to show some game (strategic and/or social), it's hard to see Chase getting the votes.

Here's my guess at this point (subject to change ):

Alina: Jud (hates LaFlor alliance + respects immunity run)
Marty: Jud (despises Sash -- wouldn't respect someone like Chase who doesn't take bold risks)
Ben: Jud (respects physical game/immunity run; Sash and Chase betrays him)
Brenda: Jud (will respect immunity run, plus Chase/Sash betrayed her)
Kelly S: Whatever Brenda tells her (Jud)
Nay: Would be ultimate irony if she votes Jud! That's what I'm learning toward, but Chase could obviously be a possibility too
Jane: Chase, but Jud is a possibility, esp. if she feels she should have been kept to F4 vs. Dan/Holly
Dan: Jud (had emotional family visit with his son and probably bonds with Jud; hates Sash and probably by extension Chase)
Holly: Chase

It'll be fun to watch the Ponderosa clips and read the post-game interviews now to look for clues on how the jury will vote!

P.S. Kiki, I totally agree -- the quitters shouldn't get their $ or be allowed on the Reunion Show. I hope Nay gets booed!