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"SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time To Vote: S21 ep5"
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 01:11 AM (EST)
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"SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time To Vote: S21 ep5"
ADVISORY: Vote threads are open to all who wish to participate and cast their votes, spoilers and non-spoilers alike. The posts initiating these threads contain no spoiler information other than perhaps referencing what has been revealed in TV promos for the upcoming episode. Non-spoilers, be advised that spoilers may include information in their posts here which you may not wish to read. Spoilers, please do not include spoiler information for future episodes, stick to the episode in question.

The Rules

1. Put the name of your choice for this week's boot in the subject heading.

This is easy, just erase the bit where it says "Re: SurvivorBlowsTribe, Time to Vote..." and replace with your vote, e.g., "Na." Or, if you think this will be a two-boot week: "Na and KB." It doesn't matter which order you put them in unless it matters to you.

This makes it easier to tally votes quickly and accurately. Nicknames are tougher to tally unless they are really obvious without actually reading your post. Other things you want to vote on (who wins what challenge, who gets first confessional, who fights over the next clue), these should go in your post not in your subject line.

1b. Absentee Ballots.

I will be posting in the Fanatics Forum instructions on how to vote absentee, I mean basically just send me your vote via PM and when I have time I will post it here. Pretty simple, but work, and maybe in future weeks some of you can volunteer to handle these chores, I'll be happy to let you go ahead and do that. Seriously, less work for me, not a problem. Any volunteers?

2. Reply only to this post.

We like a nice straight vote thread around here.

EXCEPTION TO RULE 2! VOTE CHANGES!

2b. But to change your vote reply to your own post.

Your new post heading should read, for example, "VOTE CHANGE: Fabio." Or perhaps "VOTE CHANGE: Fabio and Purple" if you think it will be a two-boot week.

3. This is not a discussion thread, do not treat it as such.

There are plenty of places on the forum to debate the merits of people's arguments, have discussions, have civil and polite disagreements, don't do it here.

But please feel free to discuss your vote in your own post, cast all the extra votes you want, we're all interested in what you have to say.

4. No graphics, particularly no sig pics.

If you must have a graphic make it pertinent to something. Thank you.

5. Have fun!
That's why you're here, right!

The DAWs!

Espada tribe. blue
Dan
Holly
Jane
Jill
Marty
Tyrone
Yve

La Flor tribe, yellow
Alina
Ben "Benry"
Brenda
Chase
Jud "Fabio"
Kelly B
Kelly S "Purple"
NaOnka
"Sash" Matthew

Eliminated
ep 1. Wendy (Espada)
ep 2. Shannon (La Flor)
ep 3. Jimmy J (Espada)
ep 4. Jimmy T (Espada)

PS: The new tribes have been spoiled purely by vidcap analysis on the vidcap thread, WTG FP! New tribes below in hidden text for those who are interested (it all comes from promos, folks):

Espada II: Alina, Ben, Chase, Dan, Holly, NaOnka, Tyrone, Yve
La Flor II: Brenda, Jane, Jill, Jud, Kelly B, Kelly S, Marty, Sash

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  Table of Contents

  Subject     Author     Message Date     ID  
 Tyrone emydi 10-12-10 1
 Tyrone Krautboy 10-12-10 2
 Tyrone Travelor 10-12-10 3
 Tyrone Brownroach 10-12-10 4
 AB: Benry dabo 10-12-10 5
 AB: NaOnka dabo 10-12-10 6
 AB: Marty dabo 10-12-10 7
 AB: NaOnka dabo 10-12-10 8
 AB: NaOnka dabo 10-12-10 9
 Tyrone Outfrontgirl 10-12-10 10
 AB: Brenda dabo 10-12-10 11
   RE: AB: Brenda michel 10-13-10 21
       RE: AB: Brenda dabo 10-13-10 22
 Bye-bye, Tyrone Belle Book 10-12-10 12
 AB: NaOnka dabo 10-12-10 13
 HEY TYRONE... Round Robin 10-13-10 14
 Yves esquire 10-13-10 15
 Tyrone Who? kircon 10-13-10 16
 AB: Brenda dabo 10-13-10 17
 Tyrone dabo 10-13-10 18
 Tyrone Loree 10-13-10 19
 Tyronne Flowerpower 10-13-10 20

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Messages in this topic

emydi 13669 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 10:08 AM (EST)
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1. "Tyrone"
he's the Espada pickle before the sammich
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Krautboy 2750 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 10:46 AM (EST)
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2. "Tyrone"
The Blackwhale Sandwich

While not everyone agrees on the interpretation of this riddle, or on the reliability of it’s author, I believe it points to the New Espada going to TC this week.


The Swap

As we’ve seen in the promos, the swap will result in the New La Flor vs. the New Espada:

New La Flor: Brenda, Kelly S, Jud, Sash, Kelly B; Marty, Jill, Jane
New Espada:: NaOnka, Ben, Chase, Alina; Yve, Holly, Tyrone, Dan


Misdirection

Based on misdirection edited into the promos, it appears that Chase and NaOnka and the rest of the New Espada may be the tribe going to TC. Chase is shown comforting NaOnka, trying to talk her down, as she considers the possibility of going home.

Chase is apparently trying to protect the fragile 4-4 voting block of the former young La Flors now on Espada. NaOnka has the Immunity Idol, but that doesn’t help the former young tribe members if she goes home.


Hidden Alliance

Holly is on the outside of her original tribe as the only old Espada on her new tribe to have voted against Dan instead of Jimmy T… Dan is obviously not anxious to form an alliance with Holly, but she is nervous and has been shown to be quick to make alliances…she will be probably be the first to jump ship and align with the original La Flor.

Yve and Dan are weak and not a threat to Chase or Ben. If Holly forms a hidden alliance with Chase and the remaining young tribe, Tyrone as the Espada leader appointed by Marty, is a good first boot. After that the old Espada are a ship without a rudder, and can easily be picked off.


Boot Decoy

The previews showing NaOnka wanting to quit are typical of the editing for a boot decoy, more evidence that the New Espada are probably going to TC. Chase is consoling NaOnka to keep her in the game in order to protect the young La Flor from becoming the minority. Chase must keep NaOnka in the game and recruit Holly as a back-up, just incase NaOnka bails.


The OFG Theory

The CBS Promo for this week pointed to NaOnka, Marty and Tyrone as candidates for this weeks boot. Marty on the New La Flor and NaOnka and Tyrone on the New Espada.

Marty is on the New La Flor and has an Idol, NaOnka is the decoy, leaving Tyrone as this week’s boot.


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Travelor 235 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 11:45 AM (EST)
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3. "Tyrone"
LAST EDITED ON 10-13-10 AT 06:49 PM (EST)

It was a tough decision this week between Tyrone and Yve. I agree Krautboy that it seems like the new Espada tribe goes to TC.

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Brownroach 15341 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 12:56 PM (EST)
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4. "Tyrone"
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-10 AT 01:14 PM (EST)

At least there's some guesswork this week. Getting my Tyrone vote in before missyae blabs the boot.

Edited to add Tyrone Davis's final words:

♪ But if I had the chance to start all over
I would be wishing today on a four leaf clover
And leaving would be the last thing on my mind
If I could turn back the hands of time ♪

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 01:54 PM (EST)
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5. "AB: Benry"
iltarion writes

With a tribal switch, I think Espada has the edge thanks to Kelly B and Alina. So, I think a La Flor goes home, likely someone strong. That means either Chase or Benry, because Chase has a little of a story and Benry has none, I'll take Benry.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 01:56 PM (EST)
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6. "AB: NaOnka"
jbug writes

I'm voting cause I want her off my tv.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 01:58 PM (EST)
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7. "AB: Marty"
kingfish writes

The trend seems to be "Tribe Leaders Go home". Even with reshuffled tribes, Marty is the most likely candidate.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 02:02 PM (EST)
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8. "AB: NaOnka"
ohmyheck writes

In my wildest dreams, NaOnka and Marty both get kicked out.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 03:40 PM (EST)
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9. "AB: NaOnka"
suzzee writes

Poetic justice.

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Outfrontgirl 6830 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 07:18 PM (EST)
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10. "Tyrone"
LAST EDITED ON 10-12-10 AT 11:39 PM (EST)

Because Krautboy dazzlies me. I thought that Sandwich clue was bogus, but he made it work. Three cheers!

About the Na Onka misdirection:
We got some new info today from the press photos, showing the photos that are post IC were taken in Espada. The sun was out, so it appears that the Na Onka meltdown was over ... whether she will be the decoy boot I am not so sure. I think that Holly is quite likely to flip in this possible tie vote scenario. She's not close to anyone but Jane. She's like the Susie Smith, the tribe member who didn't feel the love from the power alliance.

I think they were going to show it anyway, whichever tribe went to TC, because there is a large audience who will tune in to see if Nay goes home. She's the Jerri (Outback) of the season, the one everyone votes for to go every week until she does.

So really I am going with KB's sandwich logic and the press photos time stamp clue.
Tyrone, day of challenge and TC.

PS. I think Marty is the early misdirection boot. He is definitely being promo'd as in danger from the swap. He is the obvious swap boot, even though he has the idol. It think the Tyrone boot will come as a surprise. He has not gotten a lot of face time, although he did get a natural spike due to Marty nominating him to lead challenges. Perhaps La Flor took note of Tyrone's new status with his tribe and pegged him for more of a leader than he really was.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 08:01 PM (EST)
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11. "AB: Brenda"
michel writes

I am afraid that Brenda could be going home. Her edit is good but it has holes. Now, in a tribe with Marty, his idol, Jill, KB and Jud could be game over for Brenda.

I wish Dan goes home.

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michel 10958 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 09:09 PM (EST)
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21. "RE: AB: Brenda"
The vote actually was for Dan!
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 11:00 PM (EST)
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22. "RE: AB: Brenda"
My mistake, sorry about that. The subject of your PM did read: Brenda? No, Dan! When I read the text of the message I thought it was a Brenda vote.

Bit of a flaw in the prototype, at least we found it before going into mass market production then having to to issue a recall.

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Belle Book 3613 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 09:55 PM (EST)
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12. "Bye-bye, Tyrone"
Holly bonds with Chase and is separated from Jane, her only real ally from Espada. This encourages her to flip. Tyrone is seen as too much of a threat. Bye-bye.


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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-12-10, 11:11 PM (EST)
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13. "AB: NaOnka"
Snidget writes

please please please please please.

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Round Robin 2914 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 00:23 AM (EST)
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14. "HEY TYRONE..."
...it's time for you to go!
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esquire 1095 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 01:17 AM (EST)
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15. "Yves"
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kircon 3323 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 12:49 PM (EST)
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16. "Tyrone Who?"
I'm with Krautboy.
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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 01:30 PM (EST)
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17. "AB: Brenda"
Corvis writes

I know what the new tribes look like (thanks Dabo for sending me that info so I didn't have to risk seeing boot spoilers!), so I am thinking the tribe with Marty loses and he's in trouble. Brenda is shown in a commercial noting how annoying Marty is. She gets her group of 5 to vote Marty. He plays the idol and Brenda goes home.

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dabo 26942 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 01:38 PM (EST)
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18. "Tyrone"
I don't know why people treat source spoilers like infallible biblical prophets, they are fallible. And I won't be surprised tonight if this vote is wrong. But --

All signs point to New Espada going to Tribal and there being a conflict of leadership at the center of it. Tyrone and Ben are the natural challenge leaders and the most likely to be butting heads for leadership. Or maybe Chase and Tyrone, but Chase will most likely be backing Ben. Holly is no fan of the Marty alliance. Alina wants to prove her value to her La Flor friends and flies recon, Ty heads to LL.

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Loree 8616 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 02:35 PM (EST)
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19. "Tyrone"
*
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Flowerpower 7262 desperate attention whore postings
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10-13-10, 07:34 PM (EST)
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20. "Tyronne"
Krautboy is amazing! But, with all of the evidence, the OFG Theory, the vidcaps, etc, and the confessionals, I think the most at risk for boot this week are Marty, Jill, and Tyronne. Clearly, Marty has the idol and I don't think would be afraid to use it. I would love to see that happen and have it bounce back for a Brenda boot, but I don't think that will happen either. I think it's between Jill and Tyronne and since everyone seems to think that the Tyronne's tribe is going to TC and not Jill's, then I'm solid with Tyronne. Clearly he's far more threatening than Yve, Holly, and Dan.
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