Jeff is involved in casting and has seen 20 seasons already, so I think it's fair to see that he views contestants as types and puts them into certain categories that he thinks are valuable or detrimental to getting far in the game. Some of those ...1) does this person have the fortitude for the endurance and discomfort aspect of the game?
2) can this person play the social game well?
3) Is this person likable and charming, which is natural and isn't exactly the same as playing the social game in a calculated way.
4) is this person a "threat" due to physical ability or empathy potential, thus a target?
5) Is this person a candidate for early boot as a misfit with the group?
6) Is this person capable of playing the villain?
7) Is the person focused on the whole game, playing all aspects?
8) will the person's sexual attractiveness be a factor in his or her game?
9) Do they have value to the tribe in the group portion of the game?
10) Is this person observant? ( suppose that goes along with clinical.)
La Flor
Alina -- Not a misfit or a villain, nothing to say she lacks fortitude, not singled out as a challenge threat. Sexual charisma a factor, social game a factor, all around game less than full marks because he ranks her as naive, i.e. not sufficiently observant to discern who can and can't be relied upon.
Brenda -- Points for fortitude in the outdoors, likability, not a misfit. Interesting that Jeff refrains from saying she's hot (maybe he got enough flack for that by now). Says she has value to the youngsters for her mature qualities for her age.
Kelly B - threat factor is rated high, is all he focuses on here.
Kelly S - has the likability but not the all around game due to her being so young. In the past, Jeff has said that it's hard for a very young person to win this game.
Na Onka -- big misfit vibe, needs to talk less and get a game plan fast.
Benry -- clinical observant player with potential for villainy, also could charm opposite sex but in no danger of being seduced.
Chase -- an all-around package, favorite, sympathetic.
Jud (Fabio) -- super likable and not threatening even though physically fit.
Matt (Sash) -- caught up in emotion and politics (of race and gender?) Nothing about his ability to play. A rare moment when Jeff focuses mostly on the player's interactions with Jeff.
Shannon -- threat once the tribe is done with him, not an all around player, not observing enough.
ESPADA
Dan -- misfit with tribe vibe
Jimmy J - big fan bias, is probably padding JJ's chances for personal worship and PR purposes. Emphasizes his social game potential and that he has a strategy going in.
Jimmy T - supposedly likable (I don't see it Jeff). Casting did not make the final decision, was America's vote.
Marty -- definitely a player, could play too hard, dumb move potential
Tyrone -- could be scary or gentle, so first impressions are up for grabs. Says he could surprise folks, but if folks would be surprised to see him do well, that is not really a great assessment of his chances.
Holly -- similar take as with Na Onka, that she will be an early target and needs a fast alliance.
Jane -- omitted
Jill -- a favorite, gets the "observant" nod.
Wendy Jo -- big misfit problem and one who talks too much in an annoying way.
Yve -- focuses on her life qualities, doesn't see her game.
_________
In sum,
early boot risk high folks are:
La Flor -- Na Onka, Sash
Espada -- Holly, Yve, Wendy Jo, Dan
Of these 6, 3 are advised to shut up a bit and they could do fine -- Na Onka, Sash, and Wendy Jo. 2 are advised to get in a good alliance right away -- Na Onka and Holly. Yve is advised to prove her game and value immediately. Dan there is really nothing against him if he doesn't fall victim to "let's vote out the one who's different."
Players who may not have what it takes to stay the course or will be threat targets:
La Flor - Alina, Kelly S, Shannon (not observant enough). Shannon, Kelly B (threats to win challenges, threat for disabled, lost father, wins challenges jury votes).
Players whom he doesn't mention any ispecific dea of when they might go:
La Flor - Brenda
Espada - Jill, Jimmy T, Marty, Tyrone.
Players whom he speculates about their potential to get to the end:
La Flor - Benry, Chase, Jud
Espada - Jimmy J
Players whom he discusses having the ability to both go to the end and win:
Chase and Jimmy Johnson
Favorites: Chase, Jud, and Jill (Chase is odds-on favorite).
Villain role candidate (charmer AND snake): Benry
Summary: If Jeff could pick the winner, Chase Rice would get the check. However, Jeff said he'd love to give Jaison the check in Samoa, so Jeff doesn't always get what he wants.
Note: Jeff picked Mick for being a cold, calculating, womanizing backstabber in Samoa, and Mick's game wasn't remotely like that. He played an ethical non-game. Sometimes I think Jeff is just jealous of certain guys, namely doctors. However, Benry is a club promoter who is proud that he convinces women to take their tops off for money, so it would seem he has plenty of manipulator potential.
Another note: Jeff didn't really assess Sash's other qualities. Sash sells high end real estate in NYC and was/is a very successful stock broker, so if he does decide to mum up about how you don't get it if you're not from Harlem, clearly the guy is a salesman, and he's some kind of running champion, so I'm not writing him off just because he mouthed off to Jeff before the game.
Likewise, Dan Lembo says that he owes his success to his ability to schmooze people, so maybe he will play a decent social game in spite of looking like the Sopranos cast member.
Jimmy J and Jimmy T -- I think Jeff has to rate Jimmy J as a player due to his celebrity status and because he is gushing, so I discount this enthusiasm. In a lesser fashion, I don't trust his praise of Jimmy T, because Jeff may not want to diss America's vote. Instead he says, "We'll see how Jimmy T does." To my eyes, Jimmy T is the misfit, and it doesn't help that he didn't apply as a fan, but because someone he knows who is a fan encouraged him to enter a video. So he is a colorful character, that does not add up to good Survivor player.
Final note: Jud is compared to a character played by Sean Penn. And who doesn't love Jeff Spiccoli? I always did.